I'm fully aware it's not like there's an overwhelming demand for the offspring of sons of Boundary in the sales ring, but we all know he's been insured for $50 million and a stud deal's in the offing for no small reason because he's got serious Triple Crown buzz and already won the Derby.
Interested parties include "one of the most widely recognized stud farms in the world," according to IEAH co-president Michael Iavarone.
http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/article/45087.htm
I have to ask, considering he's by Boundary, are we assuming Claiborne's bidding full out? I mean if you ask me who fits that description, there are big and powerful farms right now but there's one in particular that has the most prestige in the U.S. Since Calumet's still rebuilding, that leaves Claiborne. Unless I'm wrong. I'm interested in hearing whether people think I'm nuts or if they expect to see Claiborne listed as a purchaser in the near future. Is whoever likely to make the deal before the Preakness or is IEAH willing to risk the end of a Triple Crown bid to try to get even more going with a Preakness win? It's very Deal or No Deal, hmm?
Let's Talk Big Brown
Moderators: Roguelet, WaveMaster, madelyn
Let's Talk Big Brown
"Time flies like an arrow, fruit flies like a banana"
Re: Let's Talk Big Brown
Heidilady wrote:I'm fully aware it's not like there's an overwhelming demand for the offspring of sons of Boundary in the sales ring, but we all know he's been insured for $50 million and a stud deal's in the offing for no small reason because he's got serious Triple Crown buzz and already won the Derby.
Interested parties include "one of the most widely recognized stud farms in the world," according to IEAH co-president Michael Iavarone.
http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/article/45087.htm
I have to ask, considering he's by Boundary, are we assuming Claiborne's bidding full out? I mean if you ask me who fits that description, there are big and powerful farms right now but there's one in particular that has the most prestige in the U.S. Since Calumet's still rebuilding, that leaves Claiborne. Unless I'm wrong. I'm interested in hearing whether people think I'm nuts or if they expect to see Claiborne listed as a purchaser in the near future. Is whoever likely to make the deal before the Preakness or is IEAH willing to risk the end of a Triple Crown bid to try to get even more going with a Preakness win? It's very Deal or No Deal, hmm?
I don't think Claiborne has the money to compete with Coolmore/Darley/Winstar. I don't think they're in the mix.
"Widely Recognised" doesn't necessarily mean "historic."
I seriously doubt Claiborne is a player.
"Widely Recognised" is probably either Darley or Coolmore.... that said, I'm wondering if they are REALLY interested or just keeping their options open. I can't see either of them being interested unless the colt wins at least one more classic. There's just nothing about that pedigree that screams "stallion prospect."
I still think he should be cut.
If we are to assume "widely recognised" means historic... I'd be looking at Gainesway, Three Chimneys, or Lane's End. Maybe Darby Dan. If Darley or Coolmore decide they really are interested, those farms don't have a chance.
I seriously doubt Claiborne is a player.
"Widely Recognised" is probably either Darley or Coolmore.... that said, I'm wondering if they are REALLY interested or just keeping their options open. I can't see either of them being interested unless the colt wins at least one more classic. There's just nothing about that pedigree that screams "stallion prospect."
I still think he should be cut.
If we are to assume "widely recognised" means historic... I'd be looking at Gainesway, Three Chimneys, or Lane's End. Maybe Darby Dan. If Darley or Coolmore decide they really are interested, those farms don't have a chance.
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Hold Your Peace
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I would hope the deal, if signed soon, would be structured with milestones and bonuses etc;
Because, while highly unlikely, if Big Brown were to be off the board in the Preakness and Belmont. Then he's a $15,000 stud fee stallion.
Or if he retired tomorrow and didn't run in the Preakness or Belmont then he's maybe a $25,000 stud fee stallion.
As a Triple Crown winner he should be a $60,000 stallion but there'd be such hype over an undefeated Triple Crown winner they probably could stand him for $100,000.
If he continued to race and added the Travers that would enhance his value further, even if he didn't face much there.
And if he were to win against older in the Jockey Club Gold Cup his value would further increase, and if that win came against Curlin then you'd really see a jump.
And there'd be a good jump if he won the Breeders Cup Classic.
Whatever deal they come to will probably overvalue him (and I say that even though I'm a fan of him) but most recent deals for high profile stallion prospects overvalue them in my opinion.
With partners involved the IEAH guys are actually legally bound to take the most financially lucrative deal (unless you got every single partner on board to agree to take less money) and I still believe you could see a gangbuster offer from Japan. Talk about adding to an uproar if he wins the triple crown and they sign a deal that would send him to stud in Japan upon his retirement. In defense of the IEAH management if they took a $60 million offer from an American farm and ignored an $80 million offer from a Japanese farm because they really wanted to see him stand in the US, then any partner not on board with that would have grounds to sue them. Top stud prospects owned by single wealthy individuals have sometimes eschewed higher offers for personal reasons (relationship with a certain farm, or liking a certain farm more, or location) but that may not be an option with IEAH and it's not because their managers are greedy, soul less, people. It's just the way IEAH is structured.
And no, I don't think Claiborne would have a prayer of competing for Big Brown with the kinds of numbers that have been tossed around.
For years Claiborne has had to rely on long standing relationships with clients, and their own homebreds, to get good stallion prospects.
With Claiborne's conservative book size, and with them generally not shuttling their stallions, there's no way they could generate the kind of revenue with Big Brown that a Coolmore or Darley would.
Because, while highly unlikely, if Big Brown were to be off the board in the Preakness and Belmont. Then he's a $15,000 stud fee stallion.
Or if he retired tomorrow and didn't run in the Preakness or Belmont then he's maybe a $25,000 stud fee stallion.
As a Triple Crown winner he should be a $60,000 stallion but there'd be such hype over an undefeated Triple Crown winner they probably could stand him for $100,000.
If he continued to race and added the Travers that would enhance his value further, even if he didn't face much there.
And if he were to win against older in the Jockey Club Gold Cup his value would further increase, and if that win came against Curlin then you'd really see a jump.
And there'd be a good jump if he won the Breeders Cup Classic.
Whatever deal they come to will probably overvalue him (and I say that even though I'm a fan of him) but most recent deals for high profile stallion prospects overvalue them in my opinion.
With partners involved the IEAH guys are actually legally bound to take the most financially lucrative deal (unless you got every single partner on board to agree to take less money) and I still believe you could see a gangbuster offer from Japan. Talk about adding to an uproar if he wins the triple crown and they sign a deal that would send him to stud in Japan upon his retirement. In defense of the IEAH management if they took a $60 million offer from an American farm and ignored an $80 million offer from a Japanese farm because they really wanted to see him stand in the US, then any partner not on board with that would have grounds to sue them. Top stud prospects owned by single wealthy individuals have sometimes eschewed higher offers for personal reasons (relationship with a certain farm, or liking a certain farm more, or location) but that may not be an option with IEAH and it's not because their managers are greedy, soul less, people. It's just the way IEAH is structured.
And no, I don't think Claiborne would have a prayer of competing for Big Brown with the kinds of numbers that have been tossed around.
For years Claiborne has had to rely on long standing relationships with clients, and their own homebreds, to get good stallion prospects.
With Claiborne's conservative book size, and with them generally not shuttling their stallions, there's no way they could generate the kind of revenue with Big Brown that a Coolmore or Darley would.
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xfactor fan
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xfactor fan wrote:Sam,
Why do you thing Big Brown should be gelded?
If he were 4 for 15, he'd've been gelded long ago. There's absolutely nothing in that pedigree that makes me think he'll make a stallion. Like Hold Your Peace just said, if he doesn't win another classic, he's a mediocre $15k stallion at best -- personally, I think that would even be too high.
Racing ability doesn't often translate to the breeding shed. There's no way in hell I would be able to convince myself he's worth breeding to, let alone feel confident in saying someone else should. Not right now anyway. There are some stallions worth taking a chance on and some that it's better to take a wait and see approach with. He's one I'd wait and see on. If it means missing out on breeding to him for a cheap price, so be it. Personally, I don't think he will hit. He's going to get out of his mares barely what they bring to the table and 15 years from now be in Maryland or something. He is the epitome of Fluke in my mind. He could very well be the next big thing in the shed... but I doubt it.
But hey, this industry is full of dreamers. I can't wait to see the bidding war over that first Big Brown/Pepper's Pride foal. Gold Mine, I tell you. Gold. Mine. It'll make that $16 million the Irish paid for The Green Monkey look like cigar money.
They can name it "Before The Fall."
*cough*
To be fair... if he's bred right, if they take time and pick the right mares, he could work out to be a real nice Broodie sire. I don't see him being a go-to sire, more like a "pray for a filly who can run" sire. If he's lucky, he'll work out to be another Broad Brush -- and there's nothing wrong with that. BB was one of the best stallions of the last 20 years in my mind.
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Hold Your Peace
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kimberley mine
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Sam wrote:
To be fair... if he's bred right, if they take time and pick the right mares, he could work out to be a real nice Broodie sire. I don't see him being a go-to sire, more like a "pray for a filly who can run" sire. If he's lucky, he'll work out to be another Broad Brush -- and there's nothing wrong with that. BB was one of the best stallions of the last 20 years in my mind.
If he's bred right, he could make a very interesting turf stallion.
Before BB, Boundary's best was a champion on the lawn in Europe. Hmmm.
Then his damside is a Nureyev over a Lear Fan over a Damascus over a Round Table...grass, grass, grass. Some people will probably breed to him with that in mind, but I'm not going to hold my breath over it.
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Strategic Maneuver
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Strategic Maneuver wrote:Uh.... I'm confused. Breeders having been taking some big public hits lately as being irresponsible and breeding for greed and speed, not soundness and yet look at the money being talked about in the media for syndicating BB, a horse with "bad feet".
hear hear.
But the beat goes on, right?
Besides, does anyone besides me hate the 3x3 to Northern Dancer?
Too close, too common.
All shouting does is make you lose your voice.
----Arrested Development
----Arrested Development
hi Hold Your Peace
Hmmmmmm...
...are you aware of some/any specifics in the contract/agreement/document(s) (re IEAH/Big Brown) that draws you (with such certainty) to that conclusion?
Best.
Respectfully
Hold Your Peace wrote:... With partners involved the IEAH guys are actually legally bound to take the most financially lucrative deal (unless you got every single partner on board to agree to take less money)...
Hmmmmmm...
...are you aware of some/any specifics in the contract/agreement/document(s) (re IEAH/Big Brown) that draws you (with such certainty) to that conclusion?
Best.
Respectfully
Hold Your Peace wrote:Yes (even though I'm a fan of him) Big Brown reminds me a great deal of Bellamy Road (as far as stallion prospects go). We'll have to wait a couple of years to see how he turns out but I'm going to be surprised if Bellamy Road is a major hit as a sire.
Big Brown has shown to be a 'stone runner' on turf or dirt. Bellamy Road never showed the race after race consistency that BB has shown. BB's maiden race win was as impressive as Bernardini's and Curlin's both who won easily at GP. BB broke his maiden first out going a 1 1/16 on turf at 'Toga by nearly 12 lengths. Pat Reynolds said he out worked old horses easily and after seeing him run he obviously can and did even at two.
Knock BB's pedigree all one wants but he may be a case of Seattle Slew who was also a 'stone runner' who's pedigree was doubted but did very well as a sire. If nothing else BB may pass down his immense talent to his offspring and that in itself is worth a great deal.
Toccet02 wrote:Strategic Maneuver wrote:Uh.... I'm confused. Breeders having been taking some big public hits lately as being irresponsible and breeding for greed and speed, not soundness and yet look at the money being talked about in the media for syndicating BB, a horse with "bad feet".
hear hear.
But the beat goes on, right?
Besides, does anyone besides me hate the 3x3 to Northern Dancer?
Too close, too common.
true Toccet, the beat goes on...when the talk turns to money, all is forgotten about reform in racing...cha-ching
remember, money talks....
yeah, ND 3x3...too close for comfort
A horse gallops with his lungs
Perseveres with his heart
And wins with his character. --Tesio
Perseveres with his heart
And wins with his character. --Tesio
Given the upclose photos of BB's feet out there, I would be hesistant to send a mare to him, just for that reason. I mean they've spackled those suckers, no way around it. Could be interesting if Coolmore grabbed him and our friends from Dubai refused to touch his offspring.
Is Claiborne really that bad off or is it just financially a problem to go that far out on a limb for a horse with BB's feet and breeding? I mentioned them in part because while I'm sure the deep pocked patrons of our sport are throwing around dollars, there's a certain romanticism to have a Triple Crown winner that you then get to say is standing at Claiborne Farm. I mean visions of Secretariat could be floating around their heads. For another $20 million though I guess you're right, there's a lot of bubbles they'd be willing to burst. Seriously, how much does Claiborne pay for stallion prospects nowadays? Shame it's not like they used to be. Not that I haven't noticed we don't hear the champion 2yo or 3yo is going to stand there as of late. They do have Pulpit though, that ain't nothing. I personally would find it a perk to have a limited book and no shuttling but that's just me.
Is Claiborne really that bad off or is it just financially a problem to go that far out on a limb for a horse with BB's feet and breeding? I mentioned them in part because while I'm sure the deep pocked patrons of our sport are throwing around dollars, there's a certain romanticism to have a Triple Crown winner that you then get to say is standing at Claiborne Farm. I mean visions of Secretariat could be floating around their heads. For another $20 million though I guess you're right, there's a lot of bubbles they'd be willing to burst. Seriously, how much does Claiborne pay for stallion prospects nowadays? Shame it's not like they used to be. Not that I haven't noticed we don't hear the champion 2yo or 3yo is going to stand there as of late. They do have Pulpit though, that ain't nothing. I personally would find it a perk to have a limited book and no shuttling but that's just me.
"Time flies like an arrow, fruit flies like a banana"
I'm so glad this is being talked about. I had thought for awhile now about his bad feet and the difference between breeding for a good, sound racing horse vs. the big names and fads. I wouldn't breed my mare to Big Brown. I don't know the nature of his foot problems specifically but to me, as a trainer, that is more important than the races he won. I also think he will be a big money stud that will produce average runners with bad feet.
The difference between commercial breeding and soundness breeding is a big one as far as I'm concerned. When I went stallion shopping recently, I looked at all their feet and felt their legs and some of the bigger name stallions who we got offered a great deal from, had terrible looking feet or questionable legs. I went with an older stallion who isn't popular but man was he solid.
I wish more tb people would look more at confirmation and solidness moreso than being enamored with races won and pedigree.
People are so mad about the Eight Belles tragedy, but then will turn around and breed to unsound horses with a good race record???!!!
The difference between commercial breeding and soundness breeding is a big one as far as I'm concerned. When I went stallion shopping recently, I looked at all their feet and felt their legs and some of the bigger name stallions who we got offered a great deal from, had terrible looking feet or questionable legs. I went with an older stallion who isn't popular but man was he solid.
I wish more tb people would look more at confirmation and solidness moreso than being enamored with races won and pedigree.
People are so mad about the Eight Belles tragedy, but then will turn around and breed to unsound horses with a good race record???!!!