Big Brown's stud value now

[Hold Your Peace]

I can't really see Big Brown standing for more than $35,000 now.

I mean you have very talented horses like Hard Spun and Bluegrass Cat, with much more appealing pedigrees, standing for $50,000 or Any Given Saturday for $40,000.

Big Brown's stud value much more closely resmbles say an Afleet Alex standing for $30,000.

So, unless he comes back and wins the Travers and the BC Classic which could bump his fee to maybe $50,000, I really can't see people paying more than $35,000 for Big Brown and at a $35,000 stud fee that would value Big Brown around $14 million.

By most accounts the deal with Three Chimney's was counting on a $125,000 stud fee valuing him at around $50 million.

Three Chimney's is rumored to have agreed to buy 1/3 of Big Brown and based on that $50 million valuation that's going to cost them around $16.67 million. That same 1/3, based on a $14 million valuation, is now only worth around $4.67 million for a loss of $12 million in the space of 2 minutes 29 seconds and change (the running time of the Belmont). Ouch!

I don't know what portion Pompa agreed to sell or keep of his 25% but for the sake of argument let's say he kept 10% meaning he left $3.6 million on the table keeping that 10% rather than selling it.

And that probably leaves IEAH with around 57% and the value of that 57% just went from $28.5 million to $7.98 million meaning that their shares lost $20.52 million in value today. Double Ouch!

[Playwithfire]

IEAH only sold 1/3 share of BB? I thought they sold breeding rights but kept a piece. Huh, if they could "lock-in" 50M why wouldn't they? I thought they were very smart to lock a deal in after preakness, strike while the iron's hot as they say. His pedigree isn't changing. Still even in your scenario, they actually "made" $10M by selling early (14m vs. 4m now), so they can't be too upset.

[erins isle]

His value to me is not a single dime

[Hold Your Peace]

IEAH only sold 1/3 share of BB? I thought they sold breeding rights but kept a piece. Huh, if they could "lock-in" 50M why wouldn't they? I thought they were very smart to lock a deal in after preakness, strike while the iron's hot as they say. His pedigree isn't changing. Still even in your scenario, they actually "made" $10M by selling early (14m vs. 4m now), so they can't be too upset.

Yes all of the articles about the stud deal said they sold a "minority" interest (meaning less than 50% and rumored to be 1/3) to Three Chimneys. As you say they did 'lock in' some profits at peak value by doing the stud deal early but they were hoping the value of the significant interest they were keeping in him as a stallion would appreciate further after a triple crown win. As you point out though, the real out and out loser is Three Chimney's who in 20/20 hindsight overpaid by $12 million for their interest in Big Brown. You can't really blame them for taking a shot though, somebody was going to bring the money to do the deal early and if they hadn't taken the risk they would have been out. And had Big Brown closed the deal they would have wanted to be in.

[Coaltown]

Did I miss the announcement that Big Brown was retired? Until they tell us he's done, he still has until the end of the year to pick up where he left off in the Preakness....looking like a superhorse. And even if he retires, with the ability he's shown up til now, plus a Derby and Preakness win to his credit, his fee will be well over the $35,000 mark, no matter what you don't like about his pedigree or his feet.

The speculation on what Three Chimneys has invested and lost in this deal has been pretty entertaining. I'm soooo relieved for them, though. If these rumors were true, and had Brown won the Belmont, they would have been out $120 million. Whew! Dodged that bullet! Or maybe Robert Clay is just a great poker player. He knew the odds against a TC were in his favor, so it was worth the $120 mil gamble? Aw, c'mon! How many of you really believed ANYBODY would do that deal to begin with? If so, I've got a bridge to sell you.

I remain a Big Brown fan and an optimist, not someone who kicks a really exceptional horse to the curb off one inexplicable performance. I suppose you were booing Secretariat whenever he lost, too. I sincerely hope this fantastic horse makes horses' tails out of all of his detracters.

Frankly I think he'll make an amazing stallion. It's been noted that most really exceptional racehorses are outcrosses, like Secretariat and Nijinsky II. The only one recently that was evenly remotely as inbred as Big Brown was Seattle Slew and we know what kind of stallion he became. An inbred horse of this caliber has a real shot at passing along his athleticism in a very consistent manner.

[jagger]

I too, am a big BB fan. While I don't condone the use of drugs/steroids/enhancers, it is currently being done and "the cat is out of the bag" so to speak for those who didn't already know the extent of what is being done.

If Winstrol is legal, I think it would be a big mistake to to just hang your head (Dutrow and probably IEAH and Three Chimneys) and retire him early. I say, get him back on Winstrol and let's go to The Travers and The BC Classic. Bring on Curlin.

[ArchDandy]

I think he should run without it once more, and depending on how he does...we will find out how much of the running is big brown, the one thats gonna be doing the breeding...not the winstrol.

[Mali]

Did I miss the announcement that Big Brown was retired? Until they tell us he's done, he still has until the end of the year to pick up where he left off in the Preakness....looking like a superhorse. And even if he retires, with the ability he's shown up til now, plus a Derby and Preakness win to his credit, his fee will be well over the $35,000 mark, no matter what you don't like about his pedigree or his feet.

The speculation on what Three Chimneys has invested and lost in this deal has been pretty entertaining. I'm soooo relieved for them, though. If these rumors were true, and had Brown won the Belmont, they would have been out $120 million. Whew! Dodged that bullet! Or maybe Robert Clay is just a great poker player. He knew the odds against a TC were in his favor, so it was worth the $120 mil gamble? Aw, c'mon! How many of you really believed ANYBODY would do that deal to begin with? If so, I've got a bridge to sell you.

I remain a Big Brown fan and an optimist, not someone who kicks a really exceptional horse to the curb off one inexplicable performance. I suppose you were booing Secretariat whenever he lost, too. I sincerely hope this fantastic horse makes horses' tails out of all of his detracters.

Frankly I think he'll make an amazing stallion. It's been noted that most really exceptional racehorses are outcrosses, like Secretariat and Nijinsky II. The only one recently that was evenly remotely as inbred as Big Brown was Seattle Slew and we know what kind of stallion he became. An inbred horse of this caliber has a real shot at passing along his athleticism in a very consistent manner.

It's my buddy! Hi!

Here's my .02 cents.

The horse has some formidable talent. I believe he's the best of his generation and I believe he has great tractability and speed.

With that said, I don't think he's as talented as some think. I also think a weak crop has flattered him immensely.

BUT, he's certainly shown enough talent and speed to make him a good stallion except that I don't like his pedigree from a stallion perspective.

Let's talk inbreeding. It seems to me, that the few breed shaping stallions who have been closely inbred, have been inbred to a superior mare among others. Danehill and Quiet American are recent examples.

I honestly can't think of one who is inbred to all male ancestors closely and became a gangbuster stallion.

I'm sure there's a few, always an exception to the rule, and please post them.

I imagine some stallions from the early 1900's and into the 1800's may have been very inbred to only males but I also think the isolation of populations and the diversity of actual sirelines probably helped said animals.

I'm certainly not "kicking" the horse, I just don't see what many else are praising.

And I'll stand by my "no feet, no horse" comment. It's a scary trait if you're a breeder.

[Coaltown]

Right off hand, I can think of a few other important sires who were inbred pretty closely:
Polynesian was 4x3 Polymelus
Turn-to was 3x3 Pharos
In Reality was 3x3 War Relic
Broad Brush was 3x3 Turn-to
A.P. Indy is 4x3 to Bold Ruler
Mr. Greeley is 4x3 Bold Ruler

By the way, Quiet American also has Dr. Fager 3x2, which is closer than his inbreeding to Cequillo (4x3). You can't discount that.

With a tiny bit more research I could find many more examples. If you want to go back 4x4 there are many more.

While I'll grant you that closely inbred sires are not in the majority, there have been some very good ones inbred to males. It's important not to forget that inbreeding is geared toward producing breeding stock by it's very nature, while outcrossing is more geared toward performance - the hybrid vigor and all that. That's why many superhorses who are outcrossed don't breed on - because they're hybrids by nature. All those heterozygous gene pairings don't breed true, while homozygous gene pairings are much more predictable. That's what inbreeding is supposed to do.

[Mali]

I guess we should come up with what constitutes close inbreeding or heavy inbreeding.

To me, it's 3x3, its equivalents (2x4) or closer.

So I will gladly add Turn-To, In Reality and Broad Brush to the list. Although, I don't consider Broad Brush a breed shaping stallion, I won't diminish his presence since the same can be said about Quiet American.

And I was by no way discounting the influence to the close inbreeding of Dr. Fager. Just noting that I was seeing a lot of duplication of females re-enforcing the close inbreeding elsewhere in the pedigree.

It's a really interesting subject. What are some recent examples of truly top class stallions that are leaving an impact on the breed?

Danehill is one, but he's inbred to Natalma.

[Matchemforever]

I'm learning, so please bear with me.

I was directed to this site, by a race horse enthusiast, I believe, for some breeding information. It regards sport horses but spends a lot of time and links with Thoroughbreds, TB's being very important for sport too:

http://www.sport-horse-breeder.com/134t ... derby.html

This was before Big Brown's loss, but the information that is interesting is that BB does seem to have some important female influence as well:

"
Inbred horses are seldom top performers, but when they are, they are amazing. I felt a factor in Big Brown's performance success is that his inbreeding is of a complex type. His sire and dam are clearly related being both by Northern Dancer sons- generally a no-no in linebreeding. However, the main concentrated power is coming instead from their dams. Edge, the sire's dam, and Syrian Circle, the dam's 2nd dam, (2x3) are 3/4 genetic sisters. Remember from our American Thoroughbred pagethat 3/4 siblings close up delivers speed. This identifies for us that the most power is traveling up the dam lines. Further, the dam Mien is 3x4 to the full siblings Thong and her brother Lt. Stevens. Full siblings give the needed class and quality to run the classic distance races.

The female power is further reinforced by the full siblings' (Thong/Lt. Stevens) 4th dam: Goody Two Shoes, is found also on the tail female line, and the 4 Nasrullah lines in Brownie also trace to Goody Two Shoes. This is what the Thoroughbred experts have said will give lasing racing and breeding success, to build up a strong maternal line - see the Mare.

Goody Two Shoes is considered a "reine de course" or "Blue Hen" by the Thoroughbred industry, a mare that is genetically pre-potent for racing success and with many top descendants.

Starting in the 6th generation the genetic activity picks up strength again, with multiple duplications including the full sibling power in Sickle/Pharamond, Bull Dog/Sir Gallahad, and the 7/8 siblings Riot/Fairway. This type of construction in the back of the pedigree guaranteed that Big Brown could also go the distance (see Stamina and the Thoroughbred). "

Whether you agree or not on the conclusions that BB got both speed and stamina, in spite of his sire's reputation, the interesing aspect is that he may have pretty nice females in the pedigree, although maybe not tail female, I haven't looked too closely there yet.

Regards.

[Mali]

Pretty much every thoroughbred of any type of value will have reines in his first 5 generations. The gene pool is so small, that it's not really a sign of class, per se.

The tail-female line is much more important, I think most would agree with, than any other female line in a pedigree.

As per Big Brown, it's worth noting that the best runner from his family, other than himself, is Hidden Lake. She was a multiple G1 winner by the very good broodmare sire Quiet American. Yet, she's been a borderline failure so far as a producer, even though she's been given great opportunities.

I'm not saying her lack of success in the shed is going to be a reflection of what to expect from him, but it's interesting that they're the two best horses in that immediate family by miles, and she's yet to breed on.

It appears to be one of the least consistent and influential branches of Simons Shoes, but obviously capable of surprising with a big horse every few generations.

[Coaltown]

Yes, Hidden Lake has a horrible production record but in her defense, her first 3 foals were by Storm Cat, which obviously was a bad mix of the old genes. Makes you wonder why they kept sending her back. So she lost 3 of her most important years of production. Why she has been an outright failure is a mystery, but since she's bred differently from Big Brown, I don't think it's fair to compare. If I recall, she was very much a narrow, stringy Fappiano type, so a very different type of horse altogether.

What's more important is that BB is the 5h family which has churned out an amazing number of top class/leading sires like Val de Loir, Nureyev and Sadler's Wells. And BB's dam is inbred to Rough Shod II, the source of most of those big sire names. I think you have to consider that as a serious genetic strength for him, particularly if one is a fan of female inbreeding as more important than male inbreeding. (I'm not, but some people think that way.) I know it's not exactly what you were referring to a la Danehill, but it is inbreeding to a mare who had serious input into our breed via her male descendants.

[Mali]

I certainly think his tail-female needs to be mentioned 6 gens and back. Which is why I did mention Simons Shoes, the matriarch of the entire clan. And yes, they've given us some amazing stallions, and I consider them to be one of the top 3 stallion producing families.

But, I think its worth mentioning this is the weakest branch of that family that I know of, one who has yet to produce a stallion of any note.

But who knows what's going to happen. It's why I don't breed to unproven stallions. Too many affordable known commodities.

[reenci]

I think he should run without it once more, and depending on how he does...we will find out how much of the running is big brown, the one thats gonna be doing the breeding...not the winstrol.

my god almighty .......KNOCK..KNOCK...KNOCK....anybody in there ?anybody home ?????/ for crying out loud ...WINSTROL is LEGAL.....and it does not do any of the running......the horse does. it does not make him faster..granted it will pick his head up, improve his eating, make him aggressive....how many horses in training use winstrol ? bet you its around 80% or more.........Winstrol will not make your horse run any faster.