Pedigree Query

Looking for thoughts:

I think Indian Charlie will hold, Tiznow too. Mid-range seem ok.
I think Distorted Humor and even AP Indy might take a hit, high priced stallions who's average sales are lower are suspect.
Any stallions get a bump?

I think Tiznow will go up. $40K at least, maybe even as high as $50K.

I think in this market any stallion that can hold his stud fee will be doing very well. I would guess that alot of stallions will be advertised for the same fee, but will be available for less if you wait until March or later. No evidence to support this view, just my hunch about how the market will play.

hi dray 33

dray33 wrote:Looking for thoughts:

... I think Distorted Humor and even AP Indy might take a hit, high priced stallions who's average sales are lower are suspect. ...

I would submit that a VERY strong case could be made that a reduction in advertised stud fee(s) on DH and AP would have NO affect whatsoever on the quality (or quantity for that matter) of mares that would visit them in 2009.

There are a number of sires out there though (some six-figure) whose connections will arguably find it more difficult than ever to muddle reality with their advertising, marketing, hype and spin...and still fill books without reductions, deals, foal-shares. mare-shares etc etc

Arguably, breeders (most anyway) will have to make better choices/decisions than ever before...or be luckier (maybe much luckier) than ever before.

Best.

Respectfully

I think an interesting one will be Sky Mesa. He has come on strong this year after havng his fee reduced to 15k last. I predict that he will go up (25?). Tiznow will be way up as well.

Kentucky stallion managers need to tread carefully in the next 2-3 breeding seasons... mare owners are revolting against ridiculous fees and equally troubling board/vet bills. An exodus of mares to PA, NY, LA, etc should not surprise anyone.

Dynaformer has had an inexplicably bad year, I expect his stud fee will drop dramatically.

Dynaformer had a group /grade 1 double yesterday! Rainbow View continued her unbeaten run winning the fillies mile at Ascot and is only 7/4 for next years 1000 guineas and Dynaforce won the Flower Bowl.

Surely this will be the year that Forestry's fee finally starts to come down to earth.

I think More Than Ready (who I like a lot as a sire) might come down a little as well.

What about Giant's Causaway? he has had about 18 stakes winners this year, and is in the top 5 in the General Sire List.

Georgerz wrote:What about Giant's Causaway? he has had about 18 stakes winners this year, and is in the top 5 in the General Sire List.

Comes down. He has 6 million foals a year, his auction numbers are hurting.

I don't think they'll publicly lower his fee. He's Coolmore's marquee stallion.

I also don't think you'll see a correction with the very best (expensive) stallions. A drop in fee would give the impression there was a drop in production, with the exception of an aging stallion.

Farms are very conscious of this and a stallion's fee is often a more important marketing tool than any statistic or ad campaign they can throw in the trades.

All fees can be negotiated if you bring the right things to the table. Some are just more negotiable than others.

Good point... there is little to be gained from "dropping" unless you are in trouble of filling the book. Better to keep it high, and give "gifts" to those looking to breed. That way, you get a high priced fee, at a discount.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/NOW/News/Bree ... 47314.aspx

Looks like in general the major stallion farms are not changing their stud fees, with the stallions having a very successful year going up. To me it appeared (watching the Keeneland sales live) that a lot of theses farms will have a shocker coming to them in regard to the 10-20K stallions are concerned because this is where a lot of small breeders operate and I would bet they took the worse of it in the sales.

Unless the stallion is a standout in the sales or on the track, I can't see them all getting books anywhere near the previous year. I bred to E Dubai for example, and no way would I go back at 15K having looked at the sales results. I breed to run anyhow and you have to be very crafty to sell horses in California at a profit.

Definitely going up -- Indian Charlie, Tiznow.

Might go up -- Tapit, Lion Heart, Macho Uno.

Should go down -- too many to list.