Posse A++ Nick with Rahy Mare

Vintagetb · Postby **Vintagetb** » Wed Dec 10, 2008 11:35 am

I am looking at potential stallions for a maiden Rahy mare I plan to breed this spring. In checking True Nicks and ENicks - the A++ top nick is Posse. Found this interesting as this would result in 3S x 2D, as Posse is out of a Rahy mare. Appreciate thoughts on this mating.

Thanks.

DDT · Postby **DDT** » Wed Dec 10, 2008 12:25 pm

Vintagetb

This is one of the flaws with the nicking system, it is basing the hypothetical cross on the Silver Deputy/Rahy cross and lists Posse as one of the horses from this nick. I ran two daughters of Rahy and both got the A++. Try any daughter of Rahy and see if it is an A++, I believe you will find that it is.

DDT

LB · Postby LB » Wed Dec 10, 2008 12:27 pm

The short answer is: the usefulness of nicking programs is vastly over-rated. They have lots of "bugs" and you've just discovered one.

Welcome to the forum!

Rahy85 · Postby **Rahy85** » Wed Dec 10, 2008 12:46 pm

Good piece on nicking:

http://www.thoroughbredreview.com/nicksthefinalnail.htm

True Nicks has begun to take the discipline in a more statistically valid direction, but they still have a ways to go. Werk is a joke.

brogers · Postby **brogers** » Sat Dec 13, 2008 3:16 am

Actually while breeding a Rahy mare to Posse might be a little close, the general principle of breeding the broodmare sire back to the stallion is actually a little more profitable than you would normally expect. There are a couple of stallions in particular that really appreciate this (Flying Spur in Australia is one).

griff · Postby **griff** » Sat Dec 13, 2008 10:36 am

While a A++ does not guarantee success it certainly might be useful to know when the it's a D eNick rating; i.e., that nick has never been successful.

griff

LB · Postby LB » Sat Dec 13, 2008 12:59 pm

griff wrote:While a A++ does not guarantee success it certainly might be useful to know when the it's a D eNick rating; i.e., that nick has never been successful.

griff

...yet.

DDT · Postby **DDT** » Tue Dec 16, 2008 1:48 pm

brogers

While "the general principle of breeding the broodmare sire back to the stallion is actually a little more profitable than you would normally expect." may or may not be an answer, it does not go to the rating and why it was obtained. I thought I would try with a nick that TrueNicks used as an example, the A.P. Indy/Deputy Minister nick, so I ran three random daughters of Deputy Minister crossed with Full Mandate, a product of the A.P. Indy/Deputy Minister nick and all three received identical A ratings with a 3.72 variant using the A.P. Indy/Deputy Minister cross as the reason for the A rating and citing Rags To Riches, Minister Eric, Casino Drive, Fircroft and Handpainted as the best horses from this cross. I ran the same three mares with Friends Lake, Majestic Warrior, Mineshaft, Mingun and Rock Slide with the same results. When these three mares were used with Stephen Got Even and Malibu Moon they received a D rating citing the Stephen Got Even/Northern Dancer cross and the Malibu Moon/Northern Dancer cross even though A.P. Indy and Deputy Minister both appear in the 2nd generation.

It seems to me that this indicates that one cannot take certain results from the program for granted.

DDT