Pedigree Query

Some of you may remember that I have a privately devised system which identifies stallions which out produce the mares they cover for reasonable stud fees. My system has uncovered stallions such as Distorted Humor, Elusive Quality, Smoke Glacken, Northern Afleet, Mutakkdim, Smart Strike, Montbrook, Five Star Day, Officer, Put It Back, etc.
I have recently identified another very promising stallion--Pleasantly Perfect. I am getting terriffic numbers on him and he is looking like a real sleeper. What do others think? He is definitely a stallion to follow. He produces very nice foals in my calculations.

Stallion Register says 1.29 AEI; 2.65 CI. How does your system reach a different conclusion,

The AEI for a stallion just finishing his freshman season is most always different from what it will be after several crops have run.

Bohemia wrote:The AEI for a stallion just finishing his freshman season is most always different from what it will be after several crops have run.

Yes, I agree average earnings will go up over time, especially with sires from the His Majesty line. I'm just interested in what sort of info bcassidy uses to measure or predict success aside from earnings.

you can look at 2008 average eranings per starter and compare it all years average eranings per starter..

I was looking at a stallion that had a $60k plus average earnings per starter which fell to less than $15k for 2008 average earnings per starter when his big horse stopped running

griff

griff wrote:I was looking at a stallion that had a $60k plus average earnings per starter which fell to less than $15k for 2008 average earnings per starter when his big horse stopped running griff

That's why I prefer median earnings as an indicator. For the sake of context I wish either BH or TT would occasionally compile and run a list of stallions ranked by median earnings.

For the sake of context I wish either BH or TT would occasionally compile and run a list of stallions ranked by median earnings.

I agree. Why don't they?

A stallion's AEI and CL can take a few years for his numbers to equalize. Usually by the time this happens----(if the stallion is outproducing his mares that is) then the stud fee has already increased. I try to find a stallion before his stud fee has increased.
In a very simple explanation---my system analyzes the entire foal crop to race and compares those foals to other crops from other stallions. By doing it this way I can see how each stallion is doing with his average foal. In my opinion, too many stallions are exhaulted because of 1 or 2 great runners but their average horse is not that good.
If the Cl for Pleasantly Perfect is 2.65---- that can explain why his foals are running so well----his book of mares has been excellent.
I will usually factor my overall number lower for a stallion when they have such a great book of mares. Smart Strike comes to mind as one such stallion. I always loved his numbers in my system but realizing what an excellent book of mares he always covered I would always lower his value in my system.
I hadn't gotten around to checking the CL of Pleasantly Perfect's book of mares before I wrote my first post----- so I will have to take a closer look at him again. With a book that strong you would certainly expect him to have some nice runners. I will repost my thoughts after I have done more research. I should have done this research before I wrote the post but I was very excited to have found another nice stallion and I wanted more input from the board. He may still be a very nice stallion but with the CL numbers so strong we will have to wait and see if the mares or he is more responsible for his good offspring.

Hard not to like him as a race horse. Hopefully he gets the time to let his horses mature and develop into the horses they are bred to be (which he should no doubt, being at Lane's End). Being by Pleasant Colony is the only real knock going into his stud career, but it would be great to see him make a big impact on the breed, we need more like him.

With respect to CI , i have been told that comparisions between stallions using the average CI of their book is tricky. A high average CI usually arises from a stallion being bred to a high percentage of old (good)mares. However if a stallion's book is dominated by young mares (ie no foals of racing age) then the average CI will be quite low even if these mares were excellent race mares with strong pedigrees. Pleasantly Perfect obviously fits the former category.

it is very tricky and as I am sure you are aware not all stallions with low Cl's are covering young mares with great race records-----which is why it can be tricky, but in my opinion, mares that have produced before are a safer choice than young mares with great race records.
I think Pleasantly Perfect may fall into the catagory of Smart Strike. They are both from the same stallion farm. Lanes End is loaded with high caliber mares. They can absolutely make any stallion they want (with the book of mares they can throw his way) and if you look at PPs pedigree---he could be a great outcross for many of the females they produce from their outstanding in-house stallion band.
Smart Strike had many years of very good if not exceptional production before he hit his break out year in a big way....
PP may just be another SS and at 15k he could very well be worth a good mare or two. I always gave SS a lot of credit for his production ability but I also always thought his Brood mare book was way above average and at 75k I didn't think he had the same value as other stallions at much lower stud fees.
I will do more research and post some more thoughts down the road. Right now I am still very high on PP and I think his stud fee is very attractively priced at 15k. He is one or two big horses away from a shooting star....