Pedigree Query

I have a couple of questions regarding this guy starting with how do you pronounce his name? Next, the story goes he bucked shins in the Hopefull then was training for the San Rafael the following year, then what? I imagine his fee couldn't be more than 5k being a son of Vindication and all. What do you think his potential for success is?

He was an expensive sales yearling, so I expect he'll attract a pretty fair first-year book from mare owners hoping to sell a home-run yearling in 2012. (They'd better hope the economy has improved by then.) After that, he'll have to prove himself, and most stallions with his kind of race record aren't great successes even on a regional level.

oliverstoned wrote:I have a couple of questions regarding this guy starting with how do you pronounce his name? Next, the story goes he bucked shins in the Hopefull then was training for the San Rafael the following year, then what? I imagine his fee couldn't be more than 5k being a son of Vindication and all. What do you think his potential for success is?

I think you're pretty right on with your thoughts. Even at 5k I don't see them getting many mares to him. A fair fee might be more like $2k and even then you'd have to give away seasons left and right to get him a full book.

I heard Zayat's babble about how great he is, but I'll put some stock in that when he sends some top class mares to Florida to be bred to him (ain't gonna happen).

His only black type was a third in a four horse field in a race (The G.1 Hopeful) where even the winner is regarded as a joke (the winner Majestic Warrior plodded into the lead after a wicked speed duel and after that race Majestic Warrior accomplished absolutely nothing).

His sire Vindication was a flop in his brief career as a stallion. Anyone who doesn't believe that should head out to the later portion of the Keeneland September sale (books 4,5,6, and 7) where you have 33 from his second to last crop in books 4,5,6, and 7 that can be had for a ham sandwich after his first sale horses (before he had runners) sold for hundreds of thousands of dollars.

People key on him being a 1/2 to Roman Ruler and El Corredor who were nice racehorses but, in my opinion, are overrated as stallions.

Too soon to judge Roman Ruler, but the only reason he's high up on the Freshman Sire list is because of the enormous size of his first crop. Some people insist on calling Roman Ruler a big hit as a freshman stallion but he's only got around 11% winners and not a single stakes horse and that's from a crop with 124 named foals out of good quality mares. Compare him to a legitimate first crop hit like the late Proud Accolade (27% winners and three stakes horses from a crop with just 48 named foals out of mares that were no where near the quality of Roman Ruler's first book).

El Corredor has certainly had some success as a stallion but with five crops to race his AEI is only 1.46 (and he's not moving his mares up) and he only has 3% stakes winners. Definitely not a flop, but without a recent superstar his stock is falling this year.

To each his own, but I wouldn't breed to Maimonides for free.

Not as a comparison, or anything like that, but quite a few people in this board, a few years ago, said that Giant's Causaway was an abject failure as a sire. The facts have proven otherwise. Just saying.

Hold Your Peace wrote:

oliverstoned wrote:

His sire Vindication was a flop in his brief career as a stallion. Anyone who doesn't believe that should head out to the later portion of the Keeneland September sale (books 4,5,6, and 7) where you have 33 from his second to last crop in books 4,5,6, and 7 that can be had for a ham sandwich after his first sale horses (before he had runners) sold for hundreds of thousands of dollars.

I think you are judging Vindication too harshly. If you want to see a real flop at a $100K stud fee, just check out Smarty Jones. And there have been plenty of stallions with big first crops that haven't done nearly as well as Roman Ruler.

Georgerz wrote:Not as a comparison, or anything like that, but quite a few people in this board, a few years ago, said that Giant's Causaway was an abject failure as a sire. The facts have proven otherwise. Just saying.

We none of us have a crystal ball, George, but that doesn't mean that we can't look around and make an educated decision based on all the input factors.

GC was supported early in his career by a huge breeding corporation with high-quality mares and the known fact that Coolmore would buy some of his better horses, enticing outside owners to send their good mares to him. For a few years there, the bulk of million-plus yearlings by GC had their auction ticket signed by Demi O'Byrne. Of the crop bred when Coolmore decided to challenge both Storm Cat and Kingmambo with GC's fee (2006 breeding year), only two weanlings sold made back the fee and one of them was bought by O'Bryne.

Giant's Causeway was also an extremely high-quality racehorse by a proven sire of sires and out of a mare by an extremely classy horse. IIRC he was one of the first of the high-performing Storm Cat/Rahy bred horses to go to stud.

Now compare that to Maimonides. He's going to Florida, so the high-power Kentucky mares won't be available to him and the high-power (read: commercial) Florida mares are going elsewhere (Put it Back, Montbrook, some of the better younger horses) because that is where they will get money at the sales. His owner isn't known for supporting his young horses with large numbers of very good mares, so the chances for good production down the track is much lower.

On race records, there is no comparison possible. One was the best horse in Europe and one of the best in the world. The other had a lot of bling and promise and never lived up to that expectation.

That, I think, is the comparison needing to be made--not folks saying GC is a failure as a stallion once his crops ran. They were completely different from the outset.

While it's worth noting that there is only one horse currently in the BH stallion register who is a son of Seattle Slew over a Silver Deputy mare, Mr Trieste in Oklahoma, it's also worth noting that Silver Deputy mares as dams of stallions are underrepresented at this point.

That is why I said that it was not for comparison. The only point I wanted to make was that it doesn't sound prudent to me to write off a stallion prospect, before he even starts his stud career, and one of the reasons being that no one has a crystal ball to predict the future, as you say.

Lets face it, if you bet every new stallion would fail you'd be right 90-95% of the time. Doesn't mean you don't try to make educated guesses and sometimes hunches as to who will make it or will fail. I like to hear both cases being made. Mr. Zayat would not be the one to make the pro Maimonades case after all he can't say "God what was I thinking paying 4.6mil for a yearling by an unproven Seattle Slew stallion!". I thought a stallion long ago with a similar race record was going to make it, Red Ransom, difference being RR was by Roberto who at the time his other son Kris S was rising from nothing (I also loved Dynaformer at the same time). Now theres plenty I didn't see coming like Stroll, Birdstone, and, Candy Ride of late. Not like I was down on them, just didn't go around saying these guys are going to be awesome. Hold your Peace made some good points in his post, Georgez whats your hunch on Maimonades? As for Giant's Causeway, the main reason he is atop the sire rankings this year is sheer volume. I never thought he offered much value and still don't. If his full brother Freud got the same books GC got he'd have the same or better numbers in my opinion. Some stallions I've given up on too soon like Lemon Drop Kid. You can never be sure when tying to pick who is going to make it but I love trying.

oliverstoned wrote:Lets face it, if you bet every new stallion would fail you'd be right 90-95% of the time. Doesn't mean you don't try to make educated guesses and sometimes hunches as to who will make it or will fail. I like to hear both cases being made. Mr. Zayat would not be the one to make the pro Maimonades case after all he can't say "God what was I thinking paying 4.6mil for a yearling by an unproven Seattle Slew stallion!". I thought a stallion long ago with a similar race record was going to make it, Red Ransom, difference being RR was by Roberto who at the time his other son Kris S was rising from nothing (I also loved Dynaformer at the same time). Now theres plenty I didn't see coming like Stroll, Birdstone, and, Candy Ride of late. Not like I was down on them, just didn't go around saying these guys are going to be awesome. Hold your Peace made some good points in his post, Georgez whats your hunch on Maimonades? As for Giant's Causeway, the main reason he is atop the sire rankings this year is sheer volume. I never thought he offered much value and still don't. If his full brother Freud got the same books GC got he'd have the same or better numbers in my opinion. Some stallions I've given up on too soon like Lemon Drop Kid. You can never be sure when tying to pick who is going to make it but I love trying.

I would agree with you on Giant's Causeway.

He's certainly not an abject failure, and for certain mares he could be first choice for me, but I'm not buying the "truly great sire" line at all.

I remember when his fee was listed at $300,000 and then went private a few delusional folks here actually suggested that was because they could get even more than $300K, but of course he went private so that they didn't have to admit his fee had plummeted due to pretty poor sale numbers. In 2007 he had 152 yearlings (conceived on a listed fee of $200,000) sell for a median price of just $122,000). None of those breeders, after the bath they took, were going back to him for $200,000 or $300,000 or more. Which is why after being listed as private he reappeared with a listed fee of $125,000.

As you pointed out he's got more than double the number of foals racing as some of his contemporaries which gives him a big head start on the sire lists. His 39% winners from foals of racing age is dismal, 6% stakes winners is just okay, and while hardly any stallion is going to move up mares of the quality he's gotten (3.34 CI) I think some other stallions would have come closer to matching their mares CI than he has with a 2.01 AEI. His sales performance for most people has been pretty poor. The median sale price for his 81 2008 yearlings, conceived on a listed fee of $300,000, was only $150,000. Ouch.

Yes, and he is chestnut. How many TOP chestnut Northern Dancer line sires can you name? I realize he has the chestnuts Rahy and Secretariat in his pedigree, but the fact still remains - how many can you name? Consider his percentages - true enough, he's got the quantity, but the real truth is in the percentages.

hi Hold Your Peace...hi Pacific Classic

Hold Your Peace wrote: ...(Giant's Causeway's) certainly not an abject failure, and for certain mares he could be first choice for me, but I'm not buying the "truly great sire" line at all. ...

I'm not buying it either, because GC's absolutely positively NOT.

As for GC possibly being a first choice for certain mares, to each his/her own. He all too often gets (at least based on the many many by him that I've seen) what might be referred to as lightweights. Many I've seen have fragile features and alignment issues, and are from mares that apparently needed more than GC offered/delivered.

That said...if you consider using GC, it'd likely make sense, and be a good place to start, if your short-list of candidates is headed by a mare that is somewhat (to plenty) coarse, taller rather than shorter, offers plenty of strength and substance, and has exceptional balance and alignment.

Continuing the thought...your chances of breeding a quality racing prospect by GC will likely be enhanced if the mare you send him is extremely strongly-made, has a deep and massive set of quarters (maybe similar (if you will) to the back-end of an SUV ), has bone mass extraordinaire, clean strong joints and pasterns that are NOT fragile/flimsy, plus outstanding balance and alignment...

Hold Your Peace wrote:...(Giant's Causeway's) sales performance for most people has been pretty poor. ...

That's the reality.

Pacific Classic wrote: How many TOP chestnut Northern Dancer line sires can you name?

Certainly Vice Regent (by Northern Dancer) was a pretty darn nice sire. All things considered, some might argue that's grossly understated.

Pacific Classic wrote:Consider (Giant's Causeway's) percentages - true enough, he's got the quantity, but the real truth is in the percentages.

Clearly Giant's Causeway has sired some wonderful runners, but his percentages (especially considering the quality and quantity of opportunities both he and many of his offspring received) are simply NOT impressive (from my perspective).

Respectfully

Pacific Classic wrote:Yes, and he is chestnut. How many TOP chestnut Northern Dancer line sires can you name?

Aside from the already-mentioned Vice Regent, there's Northern Taste, who dominated Japanese breeding in his generation; The Minstrel, with about 11% stakes winners; and Be My Guest, who led the English general sire list in 1982. I'd say this quartet would have been enough to get most stallions a reputation as a good sire of sires, even if they weren't the best of the best among the Dancer's sons.

Georgerz wrote:That is why I said that it was not for comparison. The only point I wanted to make was that it doesn't sound prudent to me to write off a stallion prospect, before he even starts his stud career, and one of the reasons being that no one has a crystal ball to predict the future, as you say.

And mine was that we might not have a crystal ball, but that doesn't mean that we can't make an educated guess based on the facts at hand. In Maimonides case, he's got a tremendous downside (poor race record, poor likelihood of farm support, sire didn't do well in the shed, unproven sireline) and very little upside (good producing dam, looked pretty at the sales). It's kind of like playing the lottery...dream of the successes, but don't lose sight of the fact that you have a greater chance of being struck by lightning AND being bitten by a shark in the same year than you do of winning the powerball jackpot.

And regarding the argument about the horses "everybody" wrote off who turned into superstar sires--Cozzene, Dynaformer, Gibson County, proud Accolade--there's a big difference with them, and that is that they could all run.

I don't think theres any doubt that he could run; his maiden win proved that. I think Malibu Moon is a good example of a horse that only broke his maiden, went to stud, and made good in a regional market. My question is his soundness; it appears he was unsound, until you look at his recent work tab:

Maimonides
08/02/2009 DMR 5F 1:03.40 Turf Firm H
07/27/2009 DMR 6F 1:10.40 All Weather Track Fast H G
07/20/2009 DMR 6F 1:11.80 All Weather Track Fast H
07/13/2009 SA 6F 1:12.40 All Weather Track Fast H G
07/07/2009 SA 5F :59.80 All Weather Track Fast H
07/01/2009 SA 4F :48.40 All Weather Track Fast H
06/25/2009 SA 5F 1:00.80 All Weather Track Fast H
06/19/2009 SA 5F :59.60 All Weather Track Fast H
06/13/2009 SA 5F 1:00.40 All Weather Track Fast H

This is not the record of an unsound horse. Unsound horses don't stand up to works like this of this frequency. I wonder if he wasnt the victim of the Del Mar surface.

Brilliance is an extremely important commodity in a racehorse sire, and he seems to have had that. Only time will tell if he ends up in Turkey.

Mahubah - I said TOP sires and seriously, think of the number of Northern Dancer line sires were are talking about - you mentioned, what, 4? I think you made my point.