Pedigree Query

Southern Image is moving to Rancho San Miguel.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... san-miguel

He'll stand for $5,000.

Thoughts?

Boy Kentucky is giving up on them faster and faster aren't they?

Southern Image has 12 maiden winners--8 of which are some flavor of maiden allowance and 2 (Privaleged and Southern Fireball) won open maidens at Del Mar and Hollywood respectively. Privileged is stakes placed at Oak Tree for John Sadler while Southern Fireball ran 4th in the Cinderella for Doug O'Neill.

Not bad for a truly talented horse you wouldn't think would get precocious runners. There are certainly worse stallion bets in California right now.

Sysonby wrote:Boy Kentucky is giving up on them faster and faster aren't they?

With just about everyone in the industry being hard up for cash this year, I don't think stallions are moving because they were given up upon, but rather because they had enough value to bring in some money if sold elsewhere. Johannesburg and Posse are two viable Kentucky stallions who have recently left the state and I wouldn't be surprised if there are more to come.

I think the ambivalence of the market here, along with the newly announced "jeopardy" of the KBIF has some breeders looking to keeping their mares in their beefier regional programs, which means fewer mares shipping into KY. Plus, oftentimes the stud farm does not OWN the stallion and the owner can opt to send the horse to a state with stallion awards.

I wonder how many stallion owners were stiffed by the likes of this guy
http://www.paulickreport.com/blog/culle ... beginning/
who sounds just so incredibly stupid he takes buffoonery to a new height? He thought the LLC meant he could keep the money he billed his clients, not pay the bills and stud fees, and the LLC would protect him?Guys like that give KY bloodstock folk a really bad name, if for nothing else than just having the IQ of a turnip. And heck, if you can't get the stud fee paid you might as well lower it, go somewhere where you CAN get paid, and also get stallion awards.

SI started out hot in KY, getting 132 mares in 2006 w/71% live foals, 2007 SI got 83 mares (71% live foals), in 2008 SI got 66 mares (53% live foals), and in 2009 44 mares bred, so he was losing appeal in KY. His yearlings avg. was 34K in 2008 and half that in 2009.

His foals probably are later maturing as he only has 36 starters from 162 horse of RA (per BH). His AEI is .59 vs 1.54 CI, granted he only has 36 starters, but understanding he has had good mares and has taken advantage of that with 3 SP'ed horses.

His runners are 36% ITM w/avg earning of $8,400 per starter so he needs some good start up horses (3 year olds) next year (he has 162 to choose from).

His dad stands for 5k was well in FL. so I would think he's a tough sell at 5K, in Cali. He is syndicated so perhaps he has the mare support coming.

fastappy wrote:His foals probably are later maturing as he only has 36 starters from 162 horse of RA (per BH). His AEI is .59 vs 1.54 CI, granted he only has 36 starters, but understanding he has had good mares and has taken advantage of that with 3 SP'ed horses.

You are looking at stats on average and comparative earnings from approximately one half of one year of racing. They probably shouldn't even compute it at this point, its so misleading.

Sysonby wrote:

fastappy wrote:His foals probably are later maturing as he only has 36 starters from 162 horse of RA (per BH). His AEI is .59 vs 1.54 CI, granted he only has 36 starters, but understanding he has had good mares and has taken advantage of that with 3 SP'ed horses.

You are looking at stats on average and comparative earnings from approximately one half of one year of racing. They probably shouldn't even compute it at this point, its so misleading.

Hi Sysonby! I don't think it is misleading as those are just statistical facts. I presented the facts from the Jockey Club and Bloodhorse as indicators for someone interested in this stallion to evaluate.

The fact that SI has landed here (California) may be the exception to past patterns of KY to Ca prospects. Time will tell. http://www.tcbloodstock.com/seasons-shares.html

fastappy wrote:

Sysonby wrote:

fastappy wrote:His foals probably are later maturing as he only has 36 starters from 162 horse of RA (per BH). His AEI is .59 vs 1.54 CI, granted he only has 36 starters, but understanding he has had good mares and has taken advantage of that with 3 SP'ed horses.

You are looking at stats on average and comparative earnings from approximately one half of one year of racing. They probably shouldn't even compute it at this point, its so misleading.

Hi Sysonby! I don't think it is misleading as those are just statistical facts. I presented the facts from the Jockey Club and Bloodhorse as indicators for someone interested in this stallion to evaluate.

The fact that SI has landed here (California) may be the exception to past patterns of KY to Ca prospects. Time will tell. http://www.tcbloodstock.com/seasons-shares.html

But its misleading when the stallion only has 2 year olds running.

The comparative index are the earnings of the mares when bred to other stallions. Since Southern Image only has juveniles, you are comparing the earnings of the youngest offspring of those mares running only a portion of the year (3 to 6 starts typically) to the earnings of her older produce who may have run 25-50 times and had complete careers. A better comparison is probably a per start index but even better yet is waiting and seeing especially for a horse that probably wasn't overly precocious a runner himself.

The CI probably works best when there are 4-5 crops running for a stallion because then you are apples to apples. (completed careers to completed careers)

Incidentally I'm not trying to be prickly but CI comparisons when the runners are barely out of diapers metaphorically speaking is just a sore spot with me

Incidentally I'm not trying to be prickly but CI comparisons when the runners are barely out of diapers metaphorically speaking is just a sore spot with me

Agreed!!!

Incidentally I'm not trying to be prickly but CI comparisons when the runners are barely out of diapers metaphorically speaking is just a sore spot with me

Agreed!!!

Sysonby wrote:Incidentally I'm not trying to be prickly but CI comparisons when the runners are barely out of diapers metaphorically speaking is just a sore spot with me

I see! The way I look at it, you take all the stats, opinions, evaluate and make an intelligent guess whether a stallion fits into your breeding profile. That was all I was offering. No conclusions (we don't know yet).

Let's take the 1st crop leader with roughly the same amount of foals for example;

11/23/09 01:59:06 ET equineline.com Product 501S - Offlee Wild Page 1 of 2

Statistical summary for the registered progeny of Offlee Wild:

3 crops
152 foals
1 crops of racing age
70 foals of racing age
70 current 2 year old foals
55 yearlings
27 weanlings

In North America / USA, Australia, Canada, England, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy,
Japan, UAE, and all other available foreign data:

0 champions
1 graded stakes winners
2 stakes winners
3 stakes placers

Lifetime Current Current Lifetime
Year 2-Year-Olds 2-Year-Olds

Foals of Racing Age 70 70 70 70
Starters(/foals of RA) 28(40%) 28(40%) 28(40%) 28(40%)
Winners (/foals of RA) 14(20%) 14(20%) 14(20%) 14(20%)
Stakes Winners
(/foals of RA) 2(3%) 2(3%) 2(3%) 2(3%)
Stakes Placers
(/foals of RA) 3(4%) 3(4%) 3(4%) 3(4%)
Starts 94 94 94 94
Wins (/starts) 21(22%) 21(22%) 21(22%) 21(22%)
Placings (/starts) 27(29%) 27(29%) 27(29%) 27(29%)

Earnings $1,829,251 $1,829,251 $1,829,251 $1,829,251
Avg Earnings
/starter $65,330 $65,330 $65,330 $65,330
Avg Earnings /start $19,460 $19,460 $19,460 $19,460
Median Earnings $8,800
Avg Earnings Index 4.24 4.24 5.94 5.94
Comparable Index 1.33
Avg Distance Raced 5.90 f 5.90 f 5.90 f 5.90 f
Avg Winning Distance 5.94 f 5.94 f 5.94 f 5.94 f
Avg Max. Win Distance 6.09 f 6.09 f 6.09 f 6.09 f
Avg Min. Win Distance 5.52 f 5.52 f 5.52 f 5.52 f
Chief Earner:
She Be Wild $1,311,040
She Be Wild $1,311,040
She Be Wild $1,311,040
She Be Wild $1,311,040

SALES SUMMARY for Offlee Wild with available Northern and Southern
Hemisphere results:
# Sold Total Amount Average Median
Horse 1 $325,000 $325,000 $325,000
Seasons 0 $0 $0 $0
Shares 0 $0 $0 $0

It can just be one indicator of many whether the stallion is throwing precocious foals or whether they well be later developing. I am not going to conclude that Offlee Wild is the end all stallion.

I believe what you are saying is that it is far too small a statistical sample to make definitive conclusions. I agree if that is your point.

We know for example that Forest Camp had outstanding stats as a 1st crop sire, but later apparently was unable to replicate earlier successes and was shipped out of country.

I just see it as one small indicator of many to help you make an intelligent guess on the direction and type of stallion you are dealing with. It would be misleading to make a definitive conclusion based on such a small sample, but we should not ignore the information either imo.

I mean people are still waiting on Smarty to come around (just kidding)!!