http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... nnsylvania
He's moving close to my mare in Felton, PA. He arrived last night. I worked with him when I worked for Tony Dutrow who had him early in his career before he was sold. Nice horse, good for PA.
winds
Smooth Jazz moving to PA
Moderators: Roguelet, WaveMaster, madelyn
One other farm that made some nice pick ups lately, namely Repent & Posse, is Empire Stud in N. Y.
I also notice that Louis Quatorze is no longer listed on the stallion register. Could there be something in the works or is it just cost cutting situation ?
I also notice that Louis Quatorze is no longer listed on the stallion register. Could there be something in the works or is it just cost cutting situation ?
Bring 'em back tired ; but bring 'em back sound !
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da hossman
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- Location: KY
I think the Obama administration may be doing the math for Ghost Ridge...
Let's be optimistic and say 60 mares are bred to Jump Start at his advertised $10,000 fee (they are firm on the price). PA has a 49% Live Foal stat, so that means 30 live foals which will generate $300,000. Knowing that they paid $1mm to get JS there, it looks like a 4 year payout (remember ~$50,000 annual expenses). But wait for reality...JS will not breed 60 mares at $10,000 in 2011, 2012, 2013 - his numbers will drop as will his fee...so we probably are looking at least a 6 year payout. How does this work for Ghost Ridge's investors/shareholders?
If JS does not get another Rail Trip in 2010 how many will line up for him in 2011?
Let's be optimistic and say 60 mares are bred to Jump Start at his advertised $10,000 fee (they are firm on the price). PA has a 49% Live Foal stat, so that means 30 live foals which will generate $300,000. Knowing that they paid $1mm to get JS there, it looks like a 4 year payout (remember ~$50,000 annual expenses). But wait for reality...JS will not breed 60 mares at $10,000 in 2011, 2012, 2013 - his numbers will drop as will his fee...so we probably are looking at least a 6 year payout. How does this work for Ghost Ridge's investors/shareholders?
If JS does not get another Rail Trip in 2010 how many will line up for him in 2011?
A difference of opinion is what makes horse racing and missionaries.
Will Rogers
Will Rogers
mikec wrote:One other farm that made some nice pick ups lately, namely Repent & Posse, is Empire Stud in N. Y.
I also notice that Louis Quatorze is no longer listed on the stallion register. Could there be something in the works or is it just cost cutting situation ?
I don't know anything. Maybe he is moving....
But, Louis Quatorze is listed in the TB Times stallion directory as having a 2010 stud fee of $5000 standing at Murmur Farm in MD.
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da hossman
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Allow me to correct my numbers before someone else does - PA had 57% Live Foals in 2008 so my math changes slightly-
60 mares bred, 34 live foals at $10,000 each = $340,000
So still 4 years to profit in dream world... but again reality is that Jump Start will not breed 60 mares at $10,000 in 2011, 2012, 2013. The numbers still do not make sense for Ghost Ridge's investors/shareholders.
New stallions are purchased/syndicated based on a 3 year formula - this allows the investors to make a profit before the first foals run as most new stallions fail. The "profit window" is even shorter for older stallions.
In 2007 (most recent complete statistics) only Congressional Honor (94), Real Quiet (85), and Lite The Fuse (75) bred more than 40 mares in PA.
In 2008 the average PA book size was 12.2 mares - 114 stallions bred 1,396 mares.
How many breeders are truly willing to pay $10,000 to breed a mare in PA in this economy?
60 mares bred, 34 live foals at $10,000 each = $340,000
So still 4 years to profit in dream world... but again reality is that Jump Start will not breed 60 mares at $10,000 in 2011, 2012, 2013. The numbers still do not make sense for Ghost Ridge's investors/shareholders.
New stallions are purchased/syndicated based on a 3 year formula - this allows the investors to make a profit before the first foals run as most new stallions fail. The "profit window" is even shorter for older stallions.
In 2007 (most recent complete statistics) only Congressional Honor (94), Real Quiet (85), and Lite The Fuse (75) bred more than 40 mares in PA.
In 2008 the average PA book size was 12.2 mares - 114 stallions bred 1,396 mares.
How many breeders are truly willing to pay $10,000 to breed a mare in PA in this economy?
A difference of opinion is what makes horse racing and missionaries.
Will Rogers
Will Rogers
It is too bad that the owner of Ghost Ridge did not consult someone like you, da hossman, before opening up his wallet and shelling out over $1 million for Jump Start and a tidy sum for Honour and Glory. It is absolutely ridiculous to think he will get his money back any time soon.
The reaction of most people in Pa. to Jump Start's stud fee and share price was - are they out of their minds? Especially in this economy and with the recent trend of reducing stud fees, it is unreasonable to expect Jump Start to attact a big book. Most breeders will be expecting a deal, and few will be willing to pay full price.
I wish Ghost Ridge luck, but it will be a hard road to hoe for them.
The reaction of most people in Pa. to Jump Start's stud fee and share price was - are they out of their minds? Especially in this economy and with the recent trend of reducing stud fees, it is unreasonable to expect Jump Start to attact a big book. Most breeders will be expecting a deal, and few will be willing to pay full price.
I wish Ghost Ridge luck, but it will be a hard road to hoe for them.
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da hossman
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Hi Bohemia - as you know I am bullish on PA and the opportunities its program offers - after all aren't we supposed to be breeding a racehorse and not a sales horse?! I just get frustrated when people rush to a new market and think only about stallions - it may take a little longer but the real money is in bringing in better mares, thereby producing better racehorses, thereby earning more breeders awards all while improving your horses.
I do think Honour & Glory is a great opportunity for PA breeders but feel that Jump Start is not as much opportunity, especially when one considers the price. Realize he did not stand for that much in KY. I also get scared of farms whose business models do not make sense - at some point they usually have to cut corners to make ends meet...how sure are you that they will be around to help promote your foal by their stallion in 2 years? 3 years?
It may be a change from PA history but if I were interested in playing stallions in PA I would buy a share in a 1st year horse that has all the qualifications because the huge restricted purses give that horse a better chance than he would have in KY to lead the Freshman Sire List and thereby increase his value and possibly be purchased to move to KY. Of course I have done that already
!
I do think Honour & Glory is a great opportunity for PA breeders but feel that Jump Start is not as much opportunity, especially when one considers the price. Realize he did not stand for that much in KY. I also get scared of farms whose business models do not make sense - at some point they usually have to cut corners to make ends meet...how sure are you that they will be around to help promote your foal by their stallion in 2 years? 3 years?
It may be a change from PA history but if I were interested in playing stallions in PA I would buy a share in a 1st year horse that has all the qualifications because the huge restricted purses give that horse a better chance than he would have in KY to lead the Freshman Sire List and thereby increase his value and possibly be purchased to move to KY. Of course I have done that already
!A difference of opinion is what makes horse racing and missionaries.
Will Rogers
Will Rogers
Here is the other thing about Ghost Ridge. I was out there in April, and the farm was very much in a raw state. Pastures were unfenced, there was only one barn to speak of, and it is in a very rural area. The barn is a combination broodmare/stallion barn - the mares/foals and probably young horses are kept in the lower level, and the stallions were kept in the upper level. You have to walk outside and up, as if you were walking up a hill, to get to the upper level. It is hard to tell the barn has two levels until you walk up the hill. They did a lot of work on this barn and it's very nice. From what I understand they have done a lot of other improvements at the farm since I was there. I think the Open House may be sometime this month; if so, I will definitely be checking it out.
Tarry Bratton, the owner, has a construction business. I wish him well in this new venture, but again this is a tough economic climate. I'm certain he's reacting to the swelling coffers of the Pa. breeding fund, but then again, what Harrisburg giveth, Harrisburg can taketh away. The politicos have already dipped into the slots money going to the racing industry this year to help balance the state budget; who knows what will happen in the future.
Tarry Bratton, the owner, has a construction business. I wish him well in this new venture, but again this is a tough economic climate. I'm certain he's reacting to the swelling coffers of the Pa. breeding fund, but then again, what Harrisburg giveth, Harrisburg can taketh away. The politicos have already dipped into the slots money going to the racing industry this year to help balance the state budget; who knows what will happen in the future.
remember ~$50,000 annual expenses
Anyone paying $50k in a regional market on annual expenses has got to be insane...seriously!!!but make your own assumptions
This site is funny
too weird to live...too rare to die
www.ascotstudfarm.com
www.ascotstudfarm.com