Predicting a good sire impromptu

[Jorge]

This is a tough question.

If you were given the opportunity to select from any given bunch of
unraced 3-year-old colts, the one with the best chance of becoming a decent sire, at random, which general or specific physical, psychological or pedigree traits would you try to chose in trying to predict success?

[Bast]

This is a tough question.

If you were given the opportunity to select from any given bunch of
unraced 3-year-old colts, the one with the best chance of becoming a decent sire, at random, which general or specific physical, psychological or pedigree traits would you try to chose in trying to predict success?

I'd look for an individual whose physical type matched what one would expect from his immediate family--not an outlier, hoping that his genotype would match phenotype, and that he would be likely to pass his characteristics more predictably, and thus be more easily matched with specific mares.

[Jorge]

[I'd look for an individual whose physical type matched what one would expect from his immediate family--not an outlier, hoping that his genotype would match phenotype, and that he would be likely to pass his characteristics more predictably, and thus be more easily matched with specific mares.

EXCELLENT!!
Other experienced comments from our collaborators?

[xfactor fan]

I"d also look for a horse where there were several generations (the more the better) of breeding type to type.

Pretty much what Bast said.

[Jorge]

Would really like to read your opinions on this one. So lets put on our thinking caps.

[Jorge]

What would be your approach if the sire and mare are quite different in size, color and morphologie from the resulting foal (the sire candidate)? Would you reject that potential sire right away? Not every potential unproven sire is Secretariat. Opinions?

[xfactor fan]

Could you clarify your question? I'm not exactly sure what you are asking.

[kimberley mine]

Unraced 3yos?

Give them a series of trials over a period of 3 months, using time tracking and heart rate monitors, and see which ones have the consistently best aerobic performance.

[griff]

look at their 1st and second dams.. firm believer that dams are much more important than sires

griff

[ElPrado]

Don't tell Louis dams could be more important. He'd go into seizures.

[Jorge]

Could you clarify your question? I'm not exactly sure what you are asking.

I am referring to selecting a horse like say, Secretariat, (with no likeness to his immediate parents in so many ways) at random from among a group of unraced juveniles. In other words, not knowing he will become Secretariat.

Let me add more comments to clarify my question: Many people wouldn't buy a horse if there is no similarity between the youngster and his sire in color, morphology, etc. My question is: how would you try to bypass certain quite obvious traits (like the ones aforementioned) but at the same time try to pinpoint the real relevant ones in order to "Bingo" in achieving a good sire from among unproven colts. See the question?

I am not implying that the colt must be the opposite to his sire, but let's try to focus on the less obvious color and morphological traits overlooked by casual observers.

[Jorge]

REMEMBER THE MY QUESTION DEALS WITH PREDICTING A GOOD SIRE OUT OF AN UNPROVEN BUNCH OF COLTS.

[Bast]

Could you clarify your question? I'm not exactly sure what you are asking.

I am referring to selecting a horse like say, Secretariat, (with no likeness to his immediate parents in so many ways) at random from among a group of unraced juveniles. In other words, not knowing he will become Secretariat.

Let me add more comments to clarify my question: Many people wouldn't buy a horse if there is no similarity between the youngster and his sire in color, morphology, etc. My question is: how would you try to bypass certain quite obvious traits (like the ones aforementioned) but at the same time try to pinpoint the real relevant ones in order to "Bingo" in achieving a good sire from among unproven colts. See the question?

I am not implying that the colt must be the opposite to his sire, but let's try to focus on the less obvious color and morphological traits overlooked by casual observers.

In the specific case of Secretariat, his resemblance to the younger Bold Lad would be a definite plus; also, I think consideration of the grandparents is reasonable as is study of the first 3 dams.

[Jorge]

In the specific case of Secretariat, his resemblance to the younger Bold Lad would be a definite plus; also, I think consideration of the grandparents is reasonable as is study of the first 3 dams.

Thank you very much "Bast". That's a good one. Never thought about Bold Lad. Hmmm, would you like to add more comments on him?

[Shammy Davis]

They call it the "Look of Eagles" and that's what I'd be looking for initially. I'd look for this before anything else. A competative young colt with heart or "bottom" as it is often referred to can overcome conformation flaws as a racehorse and in my estimation makes for a good stallion. I'm told SEATTLE SLEW had this look and that is what Jim Hill was initially impressed with.