Pedigree Query

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... -stud-fees


serious questions

1. why is curlin's stud fee so low? he's not done that bad this year
2. why is Union Rags fee 2x higher than The Factor?

[quote="bdw0617"]http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/74243/lanes-announces-2013-stud-fees


serious questions

1. why is curlin's stud fee so low? he's not done that bad this year
2. why is Union Rags fee 2x higher than The Factor?[/quote]

I would prefer to breed to Raggsy because he is an outstanding physical specimen, he was a very gifted two year old who finished second in the voting for two year old champion, he won a classic G1 at 1 1/2 miles at three, and he is the likely successor to his sire, Dixie Union, who himself was known for siring very good looking offspring with commercial appeal. I think the Factor has a lesser pedigree, lesser physical, and was primarily a (scary fast) sprinter. There is some chance that Raggsy could become a stamina influence, which is less likely for The Factor.

bdw0617 wrote:http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/74243/lanes-announces-2013-stud-fees

serious questions

1. why is curlin's stud fee so low? he's not done that bad this year
2. why is Union Rags fee 2x higher than The Factor?

1. Curlin isn't gonna make a good sire 36 runners 12 winners no stakes horses. He will end up in New York or Florida with the next 3 years.
Now Quality Road, he is gonna make it BIG.

2. Pedigree and conformation. The Factor is exactly what some regional breeding program needs for poor mares, cheap speed.

The whole list of fees is a head scratcher Smart Strike is a $100k+ sire Lemon Drop Kid for $35k and City Zip for $25k Pleasantly Perfect $10k Langfuhr $10k Mineshaft $30k are all giveaways so underpriced compared to the "new" sires coming into the industry that have done nothing are likely to do nothing either.

i see your point and well taken though i have to disagree with calling the factor cheap speed. there are not very many horses that are blessed with that type of brilliance and there was nothing cheap about his speed.

just beucase he wasn't a route runner doesn't mean his speed was cheap i kinda take offense to that honestly he was a brilliant horse who best.. like a drum... some of the best horses in his generation. Union rags on the other hand won a Belmont in a god awful time in a race where the first and 2nd place winners from the previous tripe crown races were out. I mean, at the end of the day someone has to win the race. You might call me naive but i'm a pretty freaking good handicapper and there isn't anything you can tell me to convince me that union rags is a 2 turn horse. he just entered a race with horses that are worse going 2 turns than he is, but that doesn't mean he's a good 2 turn horse.

pac classic, but you know as well as i that that's apples to oranges dullahan isn't a dirt horse. that's dixie union's calling card shit they all look good.

personally i never was a fan of Dixie union or his offspring so i'm biased. but in 2 years.. summer front, the factor (grade 1 winner) data link (grade e 1inner), soldat, summer sorieee.

frankly i think people are taking one look at war front and tossing aside the factor and i think that is a huge mistake. I mean, i personally wouldn't bred to him beucase of my issue with horses that run for baffert going to stallion, but i don't get the general person's logic for loving a slow 1 turn horse more than a fast 2 turn horse.

Dixie Union/Mr Greely/Gone West are in a group of sires that i just never got the hype. and i mean they aren't horrible but pepole swear up and down they are the best thing since sliced bred adn they aren't. at all. they all produce great looking sprinters who fold like lawn chairs going 2 turns.


as far as curlin i had just assumed he had done better than he has though i wouldn't write him off just yet I don't think anyone expected his kids to be great 2 YOs

bdw0617 wrote:as far as curlin i had just assumed he had done better than he has though i wouldn't write him off just yet I don't think anyone expected his kids to be great 2 YOs

Curlin like Big Brown can't pass their talent as racehorses on through a syringe, their lies both of their problems.

Everything else you said, you opinion and your entitled to it, and some of it I agree with.
Gone West V.Good Broodmare sire and I'm sure over the next decade or so Mr Greeley will prove that also.

Thunder Gulch won the Belmont in 2:32 he sired Point Given who won the Belmont in 2:26.

Union Rags won it in 2:30.

One thing you Yanks need to get over is times, they don't mean a thing if you lose.

Would you want the 2nd in the Belmont who ran 2:29 or the winner who ran 2:32?

dublino wrote:
1. Curlin isn't gonna make a good sire 36 runners 12 winners no stakes horses. He will end up in New York or Florida with the next 3 years.
Now Quality Road, he is gonna make it BIG.

Curlin's first foals are only two years old, and he does have a stakes-placed winner in Palace Malice. Last year, people were saying the same thing about English Channel--maybe one stakes horse, very few winners, not many runners, and this year? BOOM. Curlin himself didn't race at 2 and while the Smart Strikes can and do run early, SS himself was best at 4, comes from a family that did best at late 3 and up (even Dance Smartly), and Smart Strike's best sons ALL ran better as older horses. Wait a year.

The whole list of fees is a head scratcher Smart Strike is a $100k+ sire Lemon Drop Kid for $35k and City Zip for $25k Pleasantly Perfect $10k Langfuhr $10k Mineshaft $30k are all giveaways so underpriced compared to the "new" sires coming into the industry that have done nothing are likely to do nothing either.

Smart Strike $85k
Giants Causeway $85k
Tiznow $75k
Unbridled's Song $85k
Malibu Moon $70k
Distorted Humor $100k
Medaglia D'oro $100k
Bernardini $150k
Tapit $125k

Smart Strike is priced fairly relative to his competition. Bernardini is really an outlier in this group!

I posted yesterday in the racing forum that there is a fee bracket of $12.5k to $15k that is shaping up to have a LOT of very good, proven stallions, who will frequently have a commercial sales yearling, but are priced to be very competitive with the higher-end breed to race crowd and frequently have advertised discounts for multiple mares, multiple mares to stallions at the same farm, or early payment. These horses' foals make money more often than not for their breeder on the track, and a nice one will sell very well.

Include--$12,500
Proud Citizen--$15,000
Forestry--$11,500
Quiet American--$15,000
Mizzen Mast--$15,000
Northern Afleet--$13,500
Flatter--$15,000 (20k for 2013)
Roman Ruler--$15,000
Successful Appeal--$15,000
Hat Trick--$15,000

Between them, those stallions have 13 Gr-1 winners this year: Include Me Out, Believe You Can, Shackleford, Horizonte, Mizdirection, Flotilla, Amazombie, Vitoria Olympia, Flat Out, Proud Ruler, Caldine, Tarsila, and King David.

Put in that context, Langfuhr and Pleasantly Perfect are, like Smart Strike, priced very fairly relative to their competition at $10k. That puts them in with the likes of Smoke Glacken, Sky Classic, Artie Schiller, and the recently pensioned Holy Bull of sires of horses who win money on the track, aren't THAT great at stakes production but when they hit, they hit big, and if they don't sell as a yearling they'll sell as a 2yo or get claimed as a 2yo and make money that way. They aren't competing with the incoming stallions. I expect that Yes It's True will drop into that fee bracket, as will Pollard's Vision. E Dubai, Freud, Montbrook, and Jump Start also fit into this category, even though they are not based in Kentucky.

Mineshaft, City Zip, and Lemon Drop Kid are in the same fee bracket as proven sires Arch, Tale of the Cat, Pulpit, and Candy Ride ($30k-$50k).

bdw0617 wrote:
Dixie Union/Mr Greely/Gone West are in a group of sires that i just never got the hype. and i mean they aren't horrible but pepole swear up and down they are the best thing since sliced bred adn they aren't. at all. they all produce great looking sprinters who fold like lawn chairs going 2 turns.

Dixie Union yes, Mr Greeley yes, Gone West what the what?

Johar--BC Turf
Zafonic--Ch 2 and 3yo in Eng and Fr
Zamindar--sire of Zarkava
Move West--Gr-1 winning chaser
Western Winter--a leading sire of classic distance horses in SAf
Elusive Quality--the only pure sprinter on this list but is throwing quality at 2 turns
Proud Citizen--2nd Ky Derby, sired 2 oaks winners
Marsh Side--Canadian International
Royal Abajar--Ch. 3yo in Germany
Da Hoss--BC Mile 2x, Del Mar Derby
Lassigny--Canadian International
Came Home--Pac Classic

If you saw the difference in physicals between Union Rags and The Factor, I think you'd understand.

I think Shakespeare should be $1500 and come with a free dinner..

Union Rags won at 5 furlongs, 6 1/2 furlongs, 8 furlongs, 8 1/2 furlongs, and 12 furlongs. A big, strapping colt with stamina and speed, and a female side that says turf, even though he was a dirt horse.

I think Dixie Union died too soon for us to really know what he could've done in the shed.

The Factor was a 7 furlong specialist, nothing wrong with that. When I see Skatingonthinice on his dam's side, I am reminded of Chief Seattle, a regional sire...which is most likely what The Factor will end up being.

[quote="Zahrah"]If you saw the difference in physicals between Union Rags and The Factor, I think you'd understand.[/quote]

There was an article in the blogs on bloodhorse.com blogs regarding Union Rags' breeding, if anyone is interested. The article pointed out that Raggsy's physical type is much like Nijinski II, who appears close up on his dam's side. If Raggsy's genetics are tilted toward Nijinkski II, he could very well pass on turf potential, distance potential, size, and looks. And Nijinski II was "the" sire during his day. Just ask Dublino.

The stud fees are all grossly overpriced. Look at last nights boutique sale at Fasig and book 1 today of Keeneland. With all the big money there, the majority of the weanlings sold are under their stud fees or slightly over. If they are standout physically and vet perfect, you might make a little money. The farms are reaping all the profit, breeders continue to bleed money except for the highest quality proven mares(and those will cost you 200,000 and up to aquire).
Pinhooking is really the only way to make any money in the sale business at this point.

hi bdw0617...hi dublino

bdw0617 wrote:as far as curlin i had just assumed he had done better than he has though i wouldn't write him off just yet I don't think anyone expected his kids to be great 2 YOs

Remember too...Smart Strike was unraced as a 2yo...Curlin was unraced as a 2yo.

Of the many Curlins I've seen in training, the ones with plenty of leg under them (which are the minority of those I've seen) seem to have (to my way of thinking anyway), a VERY appealing way about them; and a couple of those seem to be loaded with quality, and developing quite impressively.

They also seem to have what I'd describe as, a very forward/confident way about them. I too (as you hinted bdw0617) will be patient with the Curlin's, and look forward to many of his sons/daughters making the headlines...and capturing the imagination.

dublino wrote:Curlin like Big Brown can't pass their talent as racehorses on through a syringe, their lies both of their problems.

Hmmm...disseminating are you, an AI shot at Lanes End and Three Chimneys? What's that all about?

As for Big Brown...I've seen 5 or 6 in training in recent months; nothing that made me pay much attention though, but one...a bay colt, average size, a beautiful mover. He'll be afforded a good opportunity...so we'll see.

dublino wrote:Would you want the 2nd in the Belmont who ran 2:29 or the winner who ran 2:32?

Has Coolmore asked you for a quote/comment re their Belmont 2nd placer...Dunkirk.

Respectfuly

FOS wrote:

dublino wrote:Curlin like Big Brown can't pass their talent as racehorses on through a syringe, their lies both of their problems.

Hmmm...disseminating are you, an AI shot at Lanes End and Three Chimneys? What's that all about?

Nope nothing to do with AI, more along the lines of certain stallions allegdegly running pumped full of steriods.

FOS wrote:

dublino wrote:Would you want the 2nd in the Belmont who ran 2:29 or the winner who ran 2:32?

Has Coolmore asked you for a quote/comment re their Belmont 2nd placer...Dunkirk.

Would never promote Coolmore for any money, they overbreed and dump stallions they are in it for the money.

Lord Magnier or whatever his title is is an Englishman at heart.
Nothing about this man says Irishman.

I read on another forum that Rock Hard Ten is in quarantine and will be moving to Korea? Does anyone know if that's true?