DRF.COM Article

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llbean
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DRF.COM Article

Postby llbean » Mon May 23, 2005 1:23 am

This is from the DRF:

CloverLeaf stallions have full books

"Brent Fernung, the general manager of Cloverleaf Farm II, is more than pleased with the response of local breeders to the farm's 10 stallions. Topping the CloverLeaf list of full books is the millionaire racehorse Repent, a son of Preakness winner Louis Quatorze. Repent was bred to 125 mares last year, his first season at stud, and he will be bred to almost as many mares this year.

"A lot of late-season action on him," said Fernung. "People like what they see in his first crop, and they want more."

Favorite Trick, the 1997 Eclipse winner for champion 2-year-old and Horse of the Year, moved to CloverLeaf following five seasons in Kentucky. "Kentucky breeders don't seem to have the patience Florida breeders seem to have," said Fernung. "There's such an influx of new stallions every year up there that a stud who has a respectable record can lose his cachet."

Favorite Trick will have a book of about 60 in 2005.

Nine of the 10 stallions at CloverLeaf will be getting a full book of 40 or more. The only stallion to fall below that plateau is the millionaire Brazilian-bred Hard Buck. "He's a grand-looking horse who retired absolutely sound after four years of racing," said Fernung, adding that Hard Buck was a Grade 1 winner in Brazil from a mile to 1 1/4 miles. Hard Buck won the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Breeders' Cup Handicap in the United States and finished second in the prestigious King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot.

"Right now, Hard Buck looks like he will be bred to 25 mares," said Fernung, "and he is super fertile."

Hard Buck is by Kentucky Derby winner Spend a Buck out of Social Secret, a Secreto mare. "For a $2,500 fee, look at all you've got going for you," he said."

One odd thing about the article is that the heading is inaccurate; but the main thing that's strange is that Florida breeders are evidently choosing a proven failure (Favorite Trick) over a First Year GIW on two Continents (also, what's up with that figure on Repent??).

-llbean

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Postby Ruffian » Mon May 23, 2005 2:47 am

I can't believe ANYONE would breed to Favorite Trick over Hard Buck- that horse if indeed he is only getting 25 mares should be at stud in Ireland- if they are asking $ 2500 and only getting 25 he could of easily stood in IRE for 2000 Euro and got a helluva lot more mares :? Whats that about? :shock:

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Postby Sysonby » Mon May 23, 2005 5:50 am

Actually I can see why people would make that choice especially in Florida. Dirt sprinter versus long winded turf horse; Phone Trick versus Spend A Buck. All things being equal, it would be an easy choice for me, because although I can have purist tendencies like anyone else, at the end of the day, I may have to sell that horse. Favorite Trick's can still sell for as much as $40,000 at the two year old sales which is a comforting thought after you're in at leaat $20,000 to get that far.

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Postby Ruffian » Mon May 23, 2005 3:02 pm

I also have a one track mind- to the turf- hence the Ire Comment- lol

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Postby FOS » Tue May 24, 2005 5:25 pm

hi guys

I expect that Favorite Trick (at some point or another) will probably have a nice horse...or two...etc. I suggest that any JC registered thoroughbred (even Favorite Trick) that is capable of impregnating a thoroughbred mare might come up with a good one (or maybe more)...example: Ole Bob Bowers sired the great John Henry.

As for Favorite Trick...I would expect that the mares that he's being (or been) booked to in 2005 are probably a pretty motley-crew (for the most part). Probably many older problem-mares...the very-spotty-produce-record mares (many that might not be accepted to a stallion with quality credentials and/or market-appeal)...and/or the bottom-of-the barrel (pedigree-wise etc) mares/broodmare prospects. Even though it's difficult to imagine...he's probably been booked to some nice mares also...hmmm.

I suggest...All Things Considered...including the opportunity he received his first years at stud, coupled with the fact that he NEVER got a real front-page horse...his future is dim (if not bleak) and his own performance seems to suggest that his next step might be to teaser-status (if he stays in the USA).

I suggest he's worth a near-ZERO (if not a zero) stud fee.

But what a nice racehorse he was...amazing what a FLOP he is as a sire...HORRIBLE !!!

Respectfully

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Postby Mahubah » Tue May 24, 2005 6:36 pm

Some good points, FOS, but looking at the broodmare sires of his mates, one factor in Favorite Trick's disappointing stud performance may be that he's been bred to the wrong kind of mares. Although he got a mile quite handily himself, he was sprint-bred top and bottom and I think got the mile on athleticism (and nine furlongs on pure guts); he should have been a six-furlong horse on paper. Yet he's been bred to a lot of mares with stamina-oriented sires, apparently in hopes of adding a bit of distance, and the results haven't been good. While milers with stamina elements reasonably close up can blend with stamina-bred mares successfully, purely sprint-bred types usually don't, and Favorite Trick seems to be throwing back to his pedigree in this. If my hypothesis is right, he may do better with sprint-bred mares -- not, of course, as a sire of classic horses, but as a sire of sprinters. I don't expect him to get anything earth-shattering in Florida except by chance, but we'll see if a more speed-oriented mare base does him some good in getting more useful runners.
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Postby Sysonby » Tue May 24, 2005 7:17 pm

But FOS, between Favorite Trick and Hard Buck (and no one else), who would you choose and why?

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Postby FOS » Thu May 26, 2005 9:49 am

hi Sysonby

You ask "...between Favorite Trick and Hard Buck (and no one else), who would you choose and why?"

To me the choices are Extremely unappealing (an understatement) for many reasons...kind of like 'would I prefer to drink a cup of Pepto Bismol or a cup of Kaopectate.' If I have to select between the two so-be-it...but Yeckkkk.

On the surface...if a choice must be made between the two...it might make the most sense to go to the one that has not (as yet) proven to be a FLOP as a sire...and that's Hard Buck (he entered stud in 2005). But what about the Spend A Buck connection...or the fact that the best horses up close were hurdlers in England...a 6/7-yo stakes-winner in Germany and a top horse in Malaysia? And what about the degree of success (maybe failure is a better word) of the sires in the family (examples: Youth, Mississippian, Gonzales etc). And what about Hard Buck's front-end issues (among other things) that I suggest are difficult to ignore when considering him as a stallion. Furthermore...although he was a very good racehorse and particularly effective on the turf...the turf is not a destination that I intend to breed for. If anyone can get by all of these concerns (obstacles, or whatever you might want to call them)...maybe he's the choice for them...but I cannot give Hard Buck the nod.

Favorite Trick on the other hand has proven resoundingly that he can get you a nothing runner...all-to-often. He himself was a heck of a racehorse though and I have seen a couple of nice ones (over the years)...despite the fact that he's had EXTREMELY minimal success. But make no mistake...his degree of failure as a sire is CLEAR.

All Things Considered...if it came down to selecting between this duo...I'd probably lean toward Favorite Trick over Hard Buck (Pepto Bismol over Kaopectate)...and try (desperately) to select a mare that might possibly enhance (however slim) his chances to sire a potentially successful foal out of the chosen mare.

I cannot fathom...under any conditions...breeding to either horse...but if you do...I wish you success.

Respectfully

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Postby Sysonby » Thu May 26, 2005 10:12 am

Thanks FOS. I don't want to breed to either of them either but I thought your analysis was dead on.

If you held a gun to my head, I'd go to Favorite Trick. There was a nice two year old filly I saw at Barretts a few years ago that ultimately was named Tricks Her but, wow, that a slim thread on which to support a stallion decision. FT has been disappointing at best. But, given that the overwhelming majority of stallions fail, it's better than breeding to a turf specialist. There's a very limited market for those type of horses and even breed to race people occasionally need the option of selling.

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Postby LSB » Thu May 26, 2005 10:17 am

Sysonby, did you follow Tricks Her's career? She went on to be graded stakes placed and was probably one of Favorite Trick's best runners.

I have a mare by Favorite Trick from one of his early crops, which is why I paid attention to how his offspring were doing. My mare is out of Smart Angle (so is the result of breeding two champions 2YOs to each other) but she didn't race.

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Postby Sysonby » Thu May 26, 2005 10:23 am

I did see her race a couple of times. She was on a friend's short list at the sale which is how I happened to look at her but she went way over his budget. She was a useful 2 year old as I recall but then she fell off my radar.

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Postby llbean » Thu May 26, 2005 12:45 pm

Hi FOS,

I understand how the Market's inexplicable failure to give up on Favorite Trick would influence your unpalatable decision; but in a more general sense are you saying you'd prefer a stallion from a female family so pathetically weak as to not produce any Males Worthy of being bred save the subject stallion (ala Favorite Trick) over a family that has produced some top class GIWs and Champions who then went on to fail at stud (ala Hard Buck)?

Anyway, the Genetic Strength Value on Hard Buck is 69.90 and that's significantly better than Favorite Trick's score of 60.29.

-llbean

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Postby Pete » Thu May 26, 2005 4:00 pm

Hi All,

Sysonby, 2yo prices aren't a good indication of commercial appeal since failed sires regularly get good prices for foals that show and work well.

At the just concluded Fasig-Tipton sale hip #607, a colt by Abaginone with modest pedigree worked well and easily 2f in :22.3. It was an RNA at $46,000. This stallion is long gone to Mexico.

Two Favorite Trick foals were offered (I examined both):
Hip #260, a filly who worked a furlong in 10.3 was sold for only $10,000
Hip #298, a colt who worked in 11.4 was sold for $8,000.

The colt was a poor individual and was sold (I believe) because it was a PA bred.

I don't know that Favorite Trick (commercially) will be able to get much more than his stud fee back for his breeders.

Phone Trick sons haven't been very successful at stud but they're showing a pattern (different from their sire). The quality of their mares or the mares production (1st generation) that have produced SWs with the Phone Trick sons is not strong. Despite the superior book that Favorite Trick received, most of his SWs are out of mares who are not very strong producers themselves. In some cases they have deeper family, and in some not. The same is true of Pick Up The Phone who sired the good runners, Wooden Phone and Touch Tone, both from modest mares who would be best defined as being from families that get cheaper, (sometimes) sound and occassional useful horse. Mazel Trick has too few stakes horses to make a determination.

FOS, I agree with your distaste for the two stallions mentioned and don't need to repeat your tactful dismissal of them.

Mahubah I believe that you hit upon something in Favorite Trick (and sons of Phone Trick) - they've been bred to the wrong kind of mares. I completely agree that Favorite Trick was bred to be a sprinter.

I'd categorize the mare that might work with a Favorite Trick or Mazel Trick as a transparent mare, one that is (for lack of a better term) non-descript. Her own production and race record need not / should not be strong. Deeper family appears in the Favorite Trick SWs, but that seems to me to be as much a fact of the quality of his books rather than a necessity for a mare to breed to him.

LLBean, I'd not make a choice between these two based on pedigree. GSV isn't a reason to waste a breeding season on either of these stallions. Hard Buck's pedigree is as much steeplechaser as turf specialist and the quality isn't overwhelming. I might breed him tot he right mare if I had one that I felt fit in pedigree and aptitude.

Sysonby, if your mare fits the criteria above (non-descript) you might consider Favorite Trick. Personally, in LA, I'd be at Leestown's door in a heartbeat rather than waste any more time discussing these two.

Good luck,

Pete

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Postby FOS » Thu May 26, 2005 4:05 pm

hi llbean

You ask "...are you saying you'd prefer a stallion from a female family so pathetically weak as to not produce any Males Worthy of being bred save the subject stallion (ala Favorite Trick) over a family that has produced some top class GIWs and Champions who then went on to fail at stud (ala Hard Buck)?"

I suggest that evaluating possible stallions to breed to is rarely a simple cut-and-dry...black-and-white matter...and many things must be considered.

Regardless...if I had to select "...between Favorite Trick and Hard Buck (and no one else)..." as Sysonby requested...I'd give the nod (however reluctantly) to Favorite Trick. At least he was brilliant and precocious on the DIRT...and a TOP CLASS 2-yo (undefeated in 8 starts and winning stakes at Keeneland, Churchill, Saratoga and Hollywood Park...from 5f to 1 1/6 miles in the BC Juvenile). FT may have a "female family" that is "pathetically weak" (your words)...but he was an incredible race horse (certainly as a 2-yo)...and a VERY good 3-yo. And no one can deny that he was voted Horse of the Year and Champion 2-yo...quite an accomplishment.

Hard Buck was a very nice racehorse also (although extremely turfy)...and his 2nd dam (by Vaguely Noble...a source of run-all-day often plodder-like Staaamminnaaa) seemed to produce her premier runners over the hurdles in Ire and Eng...or on the flat in Italy and Germany and Fr from age 5 thru 7...and a daughter produced her top horse in Malaysia. Not a cause for excitement or enthusiasm for me...whatsoever...thank you.

And I agree that Hard Buck's 3rd dam was an outstanding turf champion (in France) and also produced numerous stakes winners and champions in France...but that (coupled with other pertinent info relating to Hard Buck) does not convince me that he should get the nod over Favorite Trick.

Now...if both horses stood in Italy...or Germany...or Argentina...or even in France etc...I might very well give the nod to Hard Buck...for obvious reasons...plus I suggest his physical weaknesses etc might not concern me as much if he stood where turf reigns supreme. Very simply...I am not convinced that the nod should go to Hard Buck over Favorite Trick (right now). I suggest that possibly the only appeal that Hard Buck (versus Favorite Trick) may offer...is that he has not proven that he's a flop as a sire. He certainly will have his chance though...when his first crop are 2-yo's in 2008.

I wish him and his connections good luck...but I sense that if Hard Buck stood in (maybe) South America somewhere...his chances for success might be enhanced.

Regardless...I cannot recommend breeding to either horse (at this time).

Respectfully

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Postby Pete » Thu May 26, 2005 4:08 pm

FOS' RAZOR

Evaluating possible stallions to breed to is rarely a simple cut-and-dry...black-and-white matter...and many things must be considered


Well said.