SW/MOR-Index
Moderators: Roguelet, WaveMaster, madelyn
SW/MOR-Index
I’m working on a dissertation on the estimation of breeding value. I’ve heard there is a “SW/MOR”-Index for the ranking of sires. Would You be so kind giving me a quotable information source on this topic? Thanks a lot for Your help!
Yes, that's right - but the explanation for this is quit simple: it is rather difficult to perform a standardized test of physical evaluation to a significant part of the population. So the racing- and the pedigree-test are to most of the addicted the simplier methods and keep the dreams alive. And the most important pro-argument for this is that it is much easier to get the informations needed.
hi parlo
You wrote "...it is rather difficult to perform a standardized test of physical evaluation to a significant part of the population."
But if there is to be an "estimation of breeding value" (your words)...based on a 'formula'...'system'...or whatever you choose to call it...do you intend to tag a disclaimer on the estimate(s) indicating that your estimation(s) do not take into account a physical evaluation of the subject thoroughbred(s) ?
Or possibly will you offer a range of values...based on worst case to best case scenarios?
Will your "estimation of breeding value" (in the case of a stallion and/or sire) take into account where the stallion will stand (or stands) at stud...and not just the cold, hard stats and numbers?
And consider this...I suggest that some farms...stallion managers etc have a history of outperforming others (regardless what the numbers...stats etc look like re: the subject horse). Conversely some farms...stallion managers etc seem to consistently UNDERperform...and not because they don't have a nice stallion...but simply they are less successful (for whatever reasons) at getting-the-job-done.
You might agree...marketing and advertising skills etc (not just stats...numbers etc etc) can have a big affect on how a horse is perceived. I suggest that such skills can (and often do) have a significant affect on what some (if not many) perceive a horse is 'worth.' If that's the case...you might agree that the "estimation of breeding value" could be skewed etc (for better or for worse). How will your "estimation of breeding value" deal with such issues ?
I look forward to hearing how you intend to estimate the breeding value of a horse.
...and certainly wish you the best.
Respectfully
You wrote "...it is rather difficult to perform a standardized test of physical evaluation to a significant part of the population."
But if there is to be an "estimation of breeding value" (your words)...based on a 'formula'...'system'...or whatever you choose to call it...do you intend to tag a disclaimer on the estimate(s) indicating that your estimation(s) do not take into account a physical evaluation of the subject thoroughbred(s) ?
Or possibly will you offer a range of values...based on worst case to best case scenarios?
Will your "estimation of breeding value" (in the case of a stallion and/or sire) take into account where the stallion will stand (or stands) at stud...and not just the cold, hard stats and numbers?
And consider this...I suggest that some farms...stallion managers etc have a history of outperforming others (regardless what the numbers...stats etc look like re: the subject horse). Conversely some farms...stallion managers etc seem to consistently UNDERperform...and not because they don't have a nice stallion...but simply they are less successful (for whatever reasons) at getting-the-job-done.
You might agree...marketing and advertising skills etc (not just stats...numbers etc etc) can have a big affect on how a horse is perceived. I suggest that such skills can (and often do) have a significant affect on what some (if not many) perceive a horse is 'worth.' If that's the case...you might agree that the "estimation of breeding value" could be skewed etc (for better or for worse). How will your "estimation of breeding value" deal with such issues ?
I look forward to hearing how you intend to estimate the breeding value of a horse.
...and certainly wish you the best.
Respectfully
Thank You for Your attention.
Some years ago on a conference concerning thoroughbred-breeding the manager of a leading German stud said something in this sense: “If you measure the heart-volume of a 9 month old foal, set this measure in relation to his total volume at that age and compare this to his future racing-performance, there will be no yearling-sales any more, because the horses with the highest heart-volume ratio will be retained by their breeders for their own racing-ambitions and the remaining yearlings offered on public sales will be substandard race-horses.” And this is the reason, why there are no tests and no publications to these measures.
So the problem is: there is public and private information in thoroughbred-breeding. Public information is easy to get but mostly of minor significance. Private information requires lots of costly research (for example in analysing data which is easy (?) to get to its significant informational contents). Is this worth while? Are there major interests in the market not to publish the “good” information and let the “folks” waste their time with mental processing of insignificant or even misleading information?
Nevertheless public information influences the prices paid for nominations to sires, yearlings and other equine “commodities”. As You can see in the discussions in this forum, there is a big question-mark whether high stallion fees especially for young and unproven sires offer any chance of value to the holder of broodmares. Offer the high priced sires really better breeding value or chances to this than the sires with a “normal” stallion fee?
An example for the importance of information: The common list of leading sires is a simple accumulation of prize-money won. This information is easy to get, but can be rather misleading (a “leading” sire can have just one outstanding off-spring who takes the major prizes in a season but as well hundreds of minor off-springs who each contribute a little bit to the total prize-money of their sire). A better indication is the AEI-index, but You need more data-input to gain this information. An even better indication to estimate a sires potential (his “breeding value”) is the AEI/CI-index, which unfortunately needs even more data-input.
Another example: Look at the discussion in this forum in the search of “nicks”. In theory nicks offer a reasonable breeding-strategy in combining the best of two different prepotent gene-sources. But unfortunately most of the “known” nicks combine sires which have plenty of off-springs and are even successful without each other (i. e. Hyperion/Nearco) and You see always only the few good ones but never the many substandard or failing off-springs out of this combination.
I think, now I have described where I am searching. As You will understand it is difficult to publish results of my research before its "official" publication. Publications of this kind must by definition contribute "something new" and up to then unpublished. Nevertheless I appreciate Your attention and contribution because it shows me that You are thinking in a similar direction and there is need for such information.
After this excursion, I hope we can return to to my initial question to a quotable source of the SW/MOR-Index. I still hope to get some good hints from the forum-members.
Some years ago on a conference concerning thoroughbred-breeding the manager of a leading German stud said something in this sense: “If you measure the heart-volume of a 9 month old foal, set this measure in relation to his total volume at that age and compare this to his future racing-performance, there will be no yearling-sales any more, because the horses with the highest heart-volume ratio will be retained by their breeders for their own racing-ambitions and the remaining yearlings offered on public sales will be substandard race-horses.” And this is the reason, why there are no tests and no publications to these measures.
So the problem is: there is public and private information in thoroughbred-breeding. Public information is easy to get but mostly of minor significance. Private information requires lots of costly research (for example in analysing data which is easy (?) to get to its significant informational contents). Is this worth while? Are there major interests in the market not to publish the “good” information and let the “folks” waste their time with mental processing of insignificant or even misleading information?
Nevertheless public information influences the prices paid for nominations to sires, yearlings and other equine “commodities”. As You can see in the discussions in this forum, there is a big question-mark whether high stallion fees especially for young and unproven sires offer any chance of value to the holder of broodmares. Offer the high priced sires really better breeding value or chances to this than the sires with a “normal” stallion fee?
An example for the importance of information: The common list of leading sires is a simple accumulation of prize-money won. This information is easy to get, but can be rather misleading (a “leading” sire can have just one outstanding off-spring who takes the major prizes in a season but as well hundreds of minor off-springs who each contribute a little bit to the total prize-money of their sire). A better indication is the AEI-index, but You need more data-input to gain this information. An even better indication to estimate a sires potential (his “breeding value”) is the AEI/CI-index, which unfortunately needs even more data-input.
Another example: Look at the discussion in this forum in the search of “nicks”. In theory nicks offer a reasonable breeding-strategy in combining the best of two different prepotent gene-sources. But unfortunately most of the “known” nicks combine sires which have plenty of off-springs and are even successful without each other (i. e. Hyperion/Nearco) and You see always only the few good ones but never the many substandard or failing off-springs out of this combination.
I think, now I have described where I am searching. As You will understand it is difficult to publish results of my research before its "official" publication. Publications of this kind must by definition contribute "something new" and up to then unpublished. Nevertheless I appreciate Your attention and contribution because it shows me that You are thinking in a similar direction and there is need for such information.
After this excursion, I hope we can return to to my initial question to a quotable source of the SW/MOR-Index. I still hope to get some good hints from the forum-members.