hi guys
Read closely...there will be test.
Top 4 LEADING SECOND-CROP SIRES BY LIFETIME EARNINGS*
Rank......Sire..................Foals.......%Winners...%SW......Earnings
1......Giant's Causeway.....244............14.............2........$3,952,391
2......Montjeu (Ire)............101............28.............6........$3,884,657
3......Successful Appeal.......63............35...........10........$2,718,539
4......Fusaichi Pegasus.......172............17.............5........$2,675,465
*stats...Bloodstock Research 6/20/2005
Now...let's play Three Questions:
1/ Which Top 4 Leading Second-Crop Sire has the largest number of Foals? hmmm.
2/ Which Top 4 Leading Second-Crop Sire has the lowest % of Winners? hmmm.
3/ Which Top 4 Leading Second-Crop Sire has the lowest % of SW's? hmmm.
We've got a unanimous winner !
And the lucky contestants can breed (northern hemisphere) to this wonder-sire for a mere US$200,000 (plus tax of course)...what a bargain.
Who was it that said you can fool some of the people some of the time?
Respectfully
Don't Be Fooled...Even Some of the Time
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xfactor fan
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kimberley mine
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In the interest of clarity, do your numbers include all foals, or only northern hemisphere foals?
Including all foals in your assessment will seriously skew the statistics, as the southern hemisphere foals are not yet officially three years old, and so there may be a great many nice runners who have yet to start.
Including all foals in your assessment will seriously skew the statistics, as the southern hemisphere foals are not yet officially three years old, and so there may be a great many nice runners who have yet to start.
hi xfactor fan
You wrote "...just to play devil's advocate, what is the relative rate of maturity of the lines? Do the Giant's Causeway's take a bit of time to mature? If that is the case, then it will skew the statistics."
Fair comment and questions...but let's not forget that the stats are for the Top 4 Leading Second Crop (not First Crop) Sires, and we're already into late June. Furthermore...if you consider how early and talented GC himself was as a 2-yo...it might offer some insight also. Regardless...I suggest that physically he's a lighter-made horse (overall) than most might expect (when they see him in the flesh) and I'm not so sure that 'little' Rahy (his broodmare sire) hasn't influenced him significantly.
That being said...I remember when I first saw GC's dam Mariah's Storm (by Rahy). My first impression was that she appeared to be approx barely average height (maybe)...but was strong and quite robust...arguably moreso than her subsequent super-star racehorse son.
Maybe 'little' Rahy (GC's broodmare sire) has influenced him significantly...because GC definitely does not have the strength and volume of Storm Cat, or the raw power...size and scope of Roberto...sire of his second dam.
May I suggest...you ought to see GC when you're in Versailles Ky. Be assured, he will be groomed impressively...but if you use your horsemen's eye and evaluate and critique him honestly and thoroughly....I expect a lot of questions will probably be answered.
Respectfully
You wrote "...just to play devil's advocate, what is the relative rate of maturity of the lines? Do the Giant's Causeway's take a bit of time to mature? If that is the case, then it will skew the statistics."
Fair comment and questions...but let's not forget that the stats are for the Top 4 Leading Second Crop (not First Crop) Sires, and we're already into late June. Furthermore...if you consider how early and talented GC himself was as a 2-yo...it might offer some insight also. Regardless...I suggest that physically he's a lighter-made horse (overall) than most might expect (when they see him in the flesh) and I'm not so sure that 'little' Rahy (his broodmare sire) hasn't influenced him significantly.
That being said...I remember when I first saw GC's dam Mariah's Storm (by Rahy). My first impression was that she appeared to be approx barely average height (maybe)...but was strong and quite robust...arguably moreso than her subsequent super-star racehorse son.
Maybe 'little' Rahy (GC's broodmare sire) has influenced him significantly...because GC definitely does not have the strength and volume of Storm Cat, or the raw power...size and scope of Roberto...sire of his second dam.
May I suggest...you ought to see GC when you're in Versailles Ky. Be assured, he will be groomed impressively...but if you use your horsemen's eye and evaluate and critique him honestly and thoroughly....I expect a lot of questions will probably be answered.
Respectfully
What this really points out is that the BloodHorse needs to get into the 21st century with its statistics. Their leading sire lists are really misleading and only point out which horse has the largest crops or the current Big Horse.
Come on, BH, take a statistics class and apply what you learn to your reporting or better yet, hire that fellow that puts out the ABC stallion lists. (can't recall his name right now)
Come on, BH, take a statistics class and apply what you learn to your reporting or better yet, hire that fellow that puts out the ABC stallion lists. (can't recall his name right now)
freddymo wrote:FOS, Giant's Causeway has had 2 Classic winners from his first crop.. People who breed to him do not care if they get a frog they just do not need another 35 claimer or NW of 1 other then. THEY ARE LOOKING TO GET A CLASSIC WINNER! You seem to be missing the boat.
Respectfully
How many stallions that stand for far, far less would get a classic winner or two if bred to that many of the world's best mares? I'd say at least as many as GC.. probably more. I'm not impressed.. but so long as the "hype" over these type of studs wins the day the trend will continue. PT Barnum would have LOVED this "business".
Don't be fooled...by statistics regarding very young stallions with large foal crops!
From two Northern Hemisphere crops, Giant's Causeway has about 300 foals- something like 147 3 year olds, and over 150 2 year olds.
Of his three year olds, 103 of them have run- that is 70 percent, a very respectable percentage. Thirty-nine of these have won (27%)- not as good of a figure. However, the European flat season is just now going full throttle, and Giant's Causeway has been averaging a few new winners per week. This number is, I predict, going to go way up before the year is out.
Of his over 150 two year olds, only 7 have run- 6 in Europe, 1 in Canada, and 0 in the US. Obviously, the US trainers with GC think that they have either late developers or turf horses on their hands. As almost 40 US Giant's Causeways are presently registering workouts, the percentage of runners and winners in this crop will also only be going up.
It seems awfully foolish to be alarmed by percentages of sophomore stallions in June of their second year, especially when they have sired winners of the the English 2000 Guineas, French 2000 Guineas, French Derby, Coronation stakes, St. James Palace Stakes, etc. Stallions have received equivalent or better first books and not performed as well as Giant's Causeway.
Maybe this is a case of FOS not being able to admit he might be wrong about this stallion?
Just food for thought...
From two Northern Hemisphere crops, Giant's Causeway has about 300 foals- something like 147 3 year olds, and over 150 2 year olds.
Of his three year olds, 103 of them have run- that is 70 percent, a very respectable percentage. Thirty-nine of these have won (27%)- not as good of a figure. However, the European flat season is just now going full throttle, and Giant's Causeway has been averaging a few new winners per week. This number is, I predict, going to go way up before the year is out.
Of his over 150 two year olds, only 7 have run- 6 in Europe, 1 in Canada, and 0 in the US. Obviously, the US trainers with GC think that they have either late developers or turf horses on their hands. As almost 40 US Giant's Causeways are presently registering workouts, the percentage of runners and winners in this crop will also only be going up.
It seems awfully foolish to be alarmed by percentages of sophomore stallions in June of their second year, especially when they have sired winners of the the English 2000 Guineas, French 2000 Guineas, French Derby, Coronation stakes, St. James Palace Stakes, etc. Stallions have received equivalent or better first books and not performed as well as Giant's Causeway.
Maybe this is a case of FOS not being able to admit he might be wrong about this stallion?
Just food for thought...
hi Joe
You wrote "Giant's Causeway has had 2 Classic winners from his first crop." "People who breed to him do not care if they get a frog..."THEY ARE LOOKING TO GET A CLASSIC WINNER! You seem to be missing the boat."
Joe...you seem to casually reference GC's "First Crop" without mentioning how unique that First Crop really is...hmmm. Hilarious...maybe two or three crops that just so happened to be born the same year is a better description of GC's First Crop. And I guess his first crop is produced from some pretty average mares...NOT. Hilarious again. As you are probably aware by now...GC's first crop is arguably the result of a HUGE quantity of quality...prime breeding stock brought to his court. Arguably, no first year stallion in the history of this industry has ever received such an opportunity...ever.
Moving on...it sounds like you are suggesting that GC's two European "classic winners" (your reference) alone, justify his $200k stud fee. I say, All Things Considered...ludicrous...mainly because his stats in general raise some serious red flags. With that in mind I suggest a good salesperson and/or story-teller tends to ignore (or discount) the bad news...but can rationalize just about anything...often inventing what otherwise seem to be plausible explanations. In the case of GC his credibility as a DIRT sire has all but vanished (although arguably with his incredible opportunities I expect he'll still get some)...but the mystique is disappearing and patience among serious commercial breeders is wearing thin. Although the US$200,000 stud fee can be rationalized...it cannot be justified...All Things Considered.
Respectfully Joe...GC's two European "classic winners" are wonderful...but his stats overall are an embarrassment. If you cavalierly suggest that doesn't matter...I strongly disagree with you. Commercial breeders are usually a savvy bunch. They may be risk-takers...some more than others...but in general the evaluation process (regardless of the level you play at) can be key to a commercial breeder's success...although I'm confident that many might agree they'd rather be lucky than smart.
Consider this Joe...young Elusive Quality started at $10,000 and was bred to (in general) an average bunch of mares (maybe some a cut above). Regardless...Elusive Quality sired (from his first crop) a champion 2-yo colt (Elusive City) in France...and a classic winner and champion (Smarty Jones) from his second crop. And while young sire Elusive Quality's son Smarty Jones was exciting millions of fans in his bid for the triple crown...his sire (Elusive Quality) was standing for $50,000. And from his first crop which numbered 76 named foals he sired no less than 11 stakes winners (14%)...Turf and Dirt. Now there's a versatile and worthy young sire (Elusive Quality)...and his 2005 stud fee was justifiably increased to $100,000...and I suggest he's worth every penny of it.
I expect that unless GC redefines himself...he may be destined to return to Ireland...and continue to sire the kind of horses that might be best suited for the turf. Siring a few very Top ones on the turf in Europe...while at the same time apparently not getting a reasonable percentage of winners and stakes winners (including horses that are best suited to compete on the Dirt and/or at the Top level of North American racing) exposes something about GC that seems to suggest his return across the pond might be sooner rather than later.
All Things Considered...Giant's Causeway's northern hemisphere stud fee is nothing short of ridiculous at US$200,000 (plus $12k sales tax). And if you factor in the HUGE quantity of quality mares he's been bred to...it's clear that if he really Had-It-In-Him he would have high-percentages of winners...high-percentages of stakes-winners...and top dirt-horses to match his wonderful (but few) top turf-horses in Europe.
Certainly he'll sire some nice horses...I suggest it would be all but impossible not to, considering the HUGE quantity of quality mares he's been bred to...and the resultant enormous crop sizes.
Joe..I suggest you might have been hypnotized (or at the very least affected) by the spin...hype...advertising and promotion etc surrounding Giant's Causeway. Study him closely, honestly, thoroughly and critically...including the HUGE opportunities he's been afforded...what his offspring look-like (in general), etc etc etc. Then evaluate GC physically...if you haven't done so already. When you then connect the dots...I suggest you might view him differently...much differently.
Good luck to his connections and those in parts of the world where turf is king...GC has proven that he can runners that can compete and win at the top there. His percentages are horrible (in general)...but nonetheless he can get a top turf-horse.
Joe...if you choose to pay $212,000 to breed to Giant's Causeway (can't forget the sales tax)...I wish you the best...but I suggest Beware. Unless money is of no object whatsoever to you...the chances for a positive net result are slim to none.
horsenuts wrote "PT Barnum would have LOVED this business" Probably so...and he might have enjoyed marketing a stallion like Giant's Causeway...expecting he could fool some of the people some of the time.
Best to you.
Respectfully
You wrote "Giant's Causeway has had 2 Classic winners from his first crop." "People who breed to him do not care if they get a frog..."THEY ARE LOOKING TO GET A CLASSIC WINNER! You seem to be missing the boat."
Joe...you seem to casually reference GC's "First Crop" without mentioning how unique that First Crop really is...hmmm. Hilarious...maybe two or three crops that just so happened to be born the same year is a better description of GC's First Crop. And I guess his first crop is produced from some pretty average mares...NOT. Hilarious again. As you are probably aware by now...GC's first crop is arguably the result of a HUGE quantity of quality...prime breeding stock brought to his court. Arguably, no first year stallion in the history of this industry has ever received such an opportunity...ever.
Moving on...it sounds like you are suggesting that GC's two European "classic winners" (your reference) alone, justify his $200k stud fee. I say, All Things Considered...ludicrous...mainly because his stats in general raise some serious red flags. With that in mind I suggest a good salesperson and/or story-teller tends to ignore (or discount) the bad news...but can rationalize just about anything...often inventing what otherwise seem to be plausible explanations. In the case of GC his credibility as a DIRT sire has all but vanished (although arguably with his incredible opportunities I expect he'll still get some)...but the mystique is disappearing and patience among serious commercial breeders is wearing thin. Although the US$200,000 stud fee can be rationalized...it cannot be justified...All Things Considered.
Respectfully Joe...GC's two European "classic winners" are wonderful...but his stats overall are an embarrassment. If you cavalierly suggest that doesn't matter...I strongly disagree with you. Commercial breeders are usually a savvy bunch. They may be risk-takers...some more than others...but in general the evaluation process (regardless of the level you play at) can be key to a commercial breeder's success...although I'm confident that many might agree they'd rather be lucky than smart.
Consider this Joe...young Elusive Quality started at $10,000 and was bred to (in general) an average bunch of mares (maybe some a cut above). Regardless...Elusive Quality sired (from his first crop) a champion 2-yo colt (Elusive City) in France...and a classic winner and champion (Smarty Jones) from his second crop. And while young sire Elusive Quality's son Smarty Jones was exciting millions of fans in his bid for the triple crown...his sire (Elusive Quality) was standing for $50,000. And from his first crop which numbered 76 named foals he sired no less than 11 stakes winners (14%)...Turf and Dirt. Now there's a versatile and worthy young sire (Elusive Quality)...and his 2005 stud fee was justifiably increased to $100,000...and I suggest he's worth every penny of it.
I expect that unless GC redefines himself...he may be destined to return to Ireland...and continue to sire the kind of horses that might be best suited for the turf. Siring a few very Top ones on the turf in Europe...while at the same time apparently not getting a reasonable percentage of winners and stakes winners (including horses that are best suited to compete on the Dirt and/or at the Top level of North American racing) exposes something about GC that seems to suggest his return across the pond might be sooner rather than later.
All Things Considered...Giant's Causeway's northern hemisphere stud fee is nothing short of ridiculous at US$200,000 (plus $12k sales tax). And if you factor in the HUGE quantity of quality mares he's been bred to...it's clear that if he really Had-It-In-Him he would have high-percentages of winners...high-percentages of stakes-winners...and top dirt-horses to match his wonderful (but few) top turf-horses in Europe.
Certainly he'll sire some nice horses...I suggest it would be all but impossible not to, considering the HUGE quantity of quality mares he's been bred to...and the resultant enormous crop sizes.
Joe..I suggest you might have been hypnotized (or at the very least affected) by the spin...hype...advertising and promotion etc surrounding Giant's Causeway. Study him closely, honestly, thoroughly and critically...including the HUGE opportunities he's been afforded...what his offspring look-like (in general), etc etc etc. Then evaluate GC physically...if you haven't done so already. When you then connect the dots...I suggest you might view him differently...much differently.
Good luck to his connections and those in parts of the world where turf is king...GC has proven that he can runners that can compete and win at the top there. His percentages are horrible (in general)...but nonetheless he can get a top turf-horse.
Joe...if you choose to pay $212,000 to breed to Giant's Causeway (can't forget the sales tax)...I wish you the best...but I suggest Beware. Unless money is of no object whatsoever to you...the chances for a positive net result are slim to none.
horsenuts wrote "PT Barnum would have LOVED this business" Probably so...and he might have enjoyed marketing a stallion like Giant's Causeway...expecting he could fool some of the people some of the time.
Best to you.
Respectfully
hi ef
You wrote "Stallions have received equivalent or better first books and not performed as well as Giant's Causeway."
Why don't you share the names of some of those stallions with us. Stallions that had the (as you described) "equivalent or better first books" both Quantity and Quality-wise, that Giant's Causeway received.
Then why don't you supply us with a list of stallions that had very limited opportunity (in comparison to GC) but have succeeded regardless.
Those are the real sires...sires that simply have-it-in-them.
Respectfully
You wrote "Stallions have received equivalent or better first books and not performed as well as Giant's Causeway."
Why don't you share the names of some of those stallions with us. Stallions that had the (as you described) "equivalent or better first books" both Quantity and Quality-wise, that Giant's Causeway received.
Then why don't you supply us with a list of stallions that had very limited opportunity (in comparison to GC) but have succeeded regardless.
Those are the real sires...sires that simply have-it-in-them.
Respectfully
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xfactor fan
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Rather than continue arguing about the quality of mares, why don't you--that is everybody that is interested--go back to the database, look up GC, got to the progeny list, and then if you right click on the name of the mare, a little box pops up that will allow you to view the offspring of that mare. Did about 30 mares, the first 20 on the list, then a random assortment, including any money winners.
Results--many of the horses with no race records have siblings by other stallions that have no race records.
The best mare of this sample is GARIMPEIRO, who has a 2003 filly that has not raced, and a whole bunch of other offspring by other sires that both hit the track and money.
This is the only example of a GC doing worse than siblings. In many cases the GC did better, or was the only one of the siblings to race.
Scientific? Sort of, the sample size is only about 10%, and alphabetical from the top of the list isn't exactly random.
Would be interested to hear from others who look at the data to see if other trends emerge.
Results--many of the horses with no race records have siblings by other stallions that have no race records.
The best mare of this sample is GARIMPEIRO, who has a 2003 filly that has not raced, and a whole bunch of other offspring by other sires that both hit the track and money.
This is the only example of a GC doing worse than siblings. In many cases the GC did better, or was the only one of the siblings to race.
Scientific? Sort of, the sample size is only about 10%, and alphabetical from the top of the list isn't exactly random.
Would be interested to hear from others who look at the data to see if other trends emerge.
Out of curiousity FOS what is your problem with Giant's Causeway and why do you keep on comparing him to Successful Appeal? I can't think of two stallions less alike in what they sire, in the part of the market they appeal to and frankly what they have done to date. You know that the market at the top end is one of dreams and European money has a lot of clout. Can you really imagine a million dollar Successful Appeal yearling? Is there really alot of international interest in Successful Appeal? Some of those GC bred mares were snapped up by the Japanese and there are Japanese bred Giant's Causeways. Are there Japanese Successful Appeals?
What GC has done and probably will do in the broader racing world is why he's so hot right now. Count me among the fooled in your parlance but I think you are comparing apples and oranges.
What GC has done and probably will do in the broader racing world is why he's so hot right now. Count me among the fooled in your parlance but I think you are comparing apples and oranges.
Sysonby wrote:Out of curiousity FOS what is your problem with Giant's Causeway and why do you keep on comparing him to Successful Appeal? I can't think of two stallions less alike in what they sire, in the part of the market they appeal to and frankly what they have done to date. You know that the market at the top end is one of dreams and European money has a lot of clout. Can you really imagine a million dollar Successful Appeal yearling? Is there really alot of international interest in Successful Appeal? Some of those GC bred mares were snapped up by the Japanese and there are Japanese bred Giant's Causeways. Are there Japanese Successful Appeals?
What GC has done and probably will do in the broader racing world is why he's so hot right now. Count me among the fooled in your parlance but I think you are comparing apples and oranges.
No one can predict the future but statistically GC is far more "Cardiff Giant" than Northern Dancer.
The hype machine(s) have taken over the last 10 years or so in regards to TB stallion breeding. GC has a 2% SW thus far.. granted it's early but that is weak.. a # usually found among discarded regional sires. Add to that the quality and number of mares GC has received and the statistics tell one all he/she needs to know. As far as siring a "classic winner(s)" so did At The Threshold and he never received anywhere near the type of book GC has.
Successful Appeal with a limited book(by today's standards anyway)and not near the quality of mares(although SA was bred to some nice runners) has produced a far greater # of SWs/ with a close second in the KY Derby from his son Closing Arguement. His percentage of starters and winners along with AEI vs CI is much, much higher than that of GC.
The fundamentals tell us that if GC was a stock then we should "sell". Whereas SA should be "bought". But the hype machine wins the day so we are where we are. It's akin to the internet days of the late 90s.
The way the Storm Cat family is being bred they are on the verge of becoming a commodity. There are Storm Cat sons on every breeding farm in the nation anymore, some with 3-4-5 of them. With GC being bred to 400 mares a year his offspring will be approaching "commodity level" shortly.
But for now "style over substance" rules the day. And so long as no one pays attention to the "man behind the curtain" the trend will continue. Gone are the days of studs truly proving themselves such as Mr P did decades ago and El Prado and Saint Ballado in fairly recent times. For now it's all about Storm Cat and "smoke and mirrors".