Northern Afleet's Stud Fee

[bcassidy]

Would anybody like to guess what NA's stud fee will be next year if a couple of scenario's develop?
1st-Afleet Alex wins another Gr 1 for 3 yr olds, the Haskell or the Travers
2nd- Afleet Alex wins the BC Classic
3rd- Another one of his offspring wins a Gr 1 race before November
What will his stud fee be next year?

[FOS]

hi bcassidy

Taylor Made has a history of being quite aggressive...and many of their clients have been stung...Taylor Made is certainly aware of that.

Our Emblem...Exploit...Storm Creek...Artax...OUCH too often.

Regardless...I expect that the advertised stud fee for Northern Afleet in 2006 might be somewhere in the range from $25,000 to $50,000.

Probably $25,000 to $35,000 is a safe place...depending on how Afleet Alex goes on thru the summer (will he win the Haskell...what about the Travers)...probably a very safe bet that Afleet Alex will be champion 3-year-old regardless.

If he's Horse of the Year and/or another Northern Afleet becomes a G1 winner pior to setting the 2006 stud fee...maybe $40,000 to $50,000.

Knowing Taylor Made...the guys will call many clients and poll them as to their thoughts. Then they'll have their meetings among themselves...discuss matters with other Northern Afleet connections...poll everyone involved...and set the highest stud fee they believe they can justify...and hopefully fill him at.

Last year they polled many clients (when they and WinStar got involved in Speightstown). They indicated (early on) that Speightstown would be in the $15k to $20k range...obviously he was ultimately set at $40k.

Hmmm.

Best to you.

Respectfully

[Coquinerie]

Even though at this point I see him as an extremely solid 30-35k stallion... I see where FOS is pushing it up to 50k and he's right, Taylor Made often pushes the stud fee envelope... usually not for the better (cheaper).... but hey, people book to it so good on them.

[horsenuts]

Would anybody like to guess what NA's stud fee will be next year if a couple of scenario's develop?
1st-Afleet Alex wins another Gr 1 for 3 yr olds, the Haskell or the Travers
2nd- Afleet Alex wins the BC Classic
3rd- Another one of his offspring wins a Gr 1 race before November
What will his stud fee be next year?

I think they will have a hard time getting over $25,000 unless another GI winner emerges. AA may be more of a "freak" than NA being an outstanding sire. I'm still from Missouri in regards to NA... I want to see more. Otherwise I think he was priced about right at $12,500. Commercially, I don't see where is worth anywhere near $25,000.

[bcassidy]

Horsenuts--I have no financial interest in Northern Afleet so my comments about him are not being selfishly driven but I have gone on record as saying this stallion will prove to be one of the greats in our industry. I base my opinion on my own research and I think he will be a stallion that we will all be talking about for quite a while. In my system he scores as high as any stallion, at any stud fee and he does it with a book of mares far below the stallions at the top of our industry. I hope he stays healthy and fertile to prove what a truely great stallion he is and also so that he gets a significant opportunity to contribute to the future of the breed. Can you imagine if there was no Mr P or Northern Dancer? In my opinion he is going to fall into that class of stallion---Bold comments I know but they are backed up with hard data. In my opinion he would still represent great value at a stud fee of 75-100k, so there is no doubt in my mind that his fee will get there and probably higher in the next few years. I can't wait to see what he produces as his book of mares gets better--as it surely has. At a 25k stud fee next year he would still be considered a steal by my research. Just my humble input. Comments appreciated.

[Sysonby]

Can you imagine if there was no Mr P or Northern Dancer? In my opinion he is going to fall into that class of stallion---Bold comments I know but they are backed up with hard data. In my opinion he would still represent great value at a stud fee of 75-100k, so there is no doubt in my mind that his fee will get there and probably higher in the next few years. I can't wait to see what he produces as his book of mares gets better--as it surely has. At a 25k stud fee next year he would still be considered a steal by my research. Just my humble input. Comments appreciated.

Well since you asked...

What in your research indicates that Northern Afleet will be an elite stallion like Mr Prospector. NA's first crop was born in 2000 which means, for all effective purposes, he's had 3 crops to race at this point. By my calculation, he's had 2 graded SWs, Afleet Alex and Saint Afleet.

Mr P's first three crops were his Florida progeny. In his first three crops, he had 2 champions (It's in the Air and Gold Beauty) 2 grade/group 1 SWs (Fappiano, Miswaki) and 4 other graded/ group SWs (Distinctive Pro, Gold Stage, Hello Gorgeous, Vain Gold), not to mention a raft of other SWs.

I have memories of those days when that obscure little stallion in Florida grabbed racing's shank and pulled hard. No slight to Northern Afleet, but he has a lot of wood to chop.

[ZiaLand]

Sysonby, any idea if those crops represent the same quality of mares or if Mr P got better right from the start. That would figure prominantly into the equation.

I agree that, IMHO, Northern Afleet has some real potential as a standout sire.

Laurie

[bcassidy]

I knew it would be dangerous to compare NA with either Mr P or Northern Dancer because they are two of the most outstanding sires the sport has ever seen but my data is very accurate and the numbers I get for NA are nothing short of sensational-- the kind of numbers Mr P and Northern Dancer have accumilated. The easiest way I can describe my research is to say that my approach looks at the racing performance of all foals of a particular stallion and then compares this data against the performances of other stallions racing offspring. I look only at the raw racing data of the foals and my system does not take into account any conformation, trainer or jockey data. After collecting the offspring's racing performance data I can start to form some opinions about the quality of that stallion's breeding prowess based upon my personal experience interpreting the racing performance data and the stallion's breeding statistics, as an example---how many mares did the stallion cover?, How many foals made it to the races?, What is the quality of the mares that he visited? and is he a late or early maturing type?. While my data is objective--- my analysis is subjective and as such, prone to human error, although my confidence interpreting the data is getting better with each passing year. I hope this explains my research method, after using this system for over 7 years rigorously and a few more years casually, I am very confident in it's conclusions and while it may not work for everyone--- it certainly works for me. I appreciate questions or comments as always.

[horsenuts]

I knew it would be dangerous to compare NA with either Mr P or Northern Dancer because they are two of the most outstanding sires the sport has ever seen but my data is very accurate and the numbers I get for NA are nothing short of sensational-- the kind of numbers Mr P and Northern Dancer have accumilated. The easiest way I can describe my research is to say that my approach looks at the racing performance of all foals of a particular stallion and then compares this data against the performances of other stallions racing offspring. I look only at the raw racing data of the foals and my system does not take into account any conformation, trainer or jockey data. After collecting the offspring's racing performance data I can start to form some opinions about the quality of that stallion's breeding prowess based upon my personal experience interpreting the racing performance data and the stallion's breeding statistics, as an example---how many mares did the stallion cover?, How many foals made it to the races?, What is the quality of the mares that he visited? and is he a late or early maturing type?. While my data is objective--- my analysis is subjective and as such, prone to human error, although my confidence interpreting the data is getting better with each passing year. I hope this explains my research method, after using this system for over 7 years rigorously and a few more years casually, I am very confident in it's conclusions and while it may not work for everyone--- it certainly works for me. I appreciate questions or comments as always.

bcassidy, I just don't see it with NA. Both Mr P and NA stood in Florida initially but the comparison ends there. Any non-biased comparison declares it a "no-contest" in favor of Mr P. Yes, AA is the "wild card"... but as I said I need to see more. Perhaps you're right on NA... but I'll have to see it to be convinced.

Many people thought Our Emblem was the "real deal" after War Emblem.. but we all know different today.

[louis finochio]

Northern Afleets mares up to now have been mediocre, and NA has been a quality stallion without being bred to those high quality mares.

That will all change now as those quality producing mares will be knocking on NA door and his AEI will go to the next level.

NA will make an impact in the years to come as his superior runners will be prolific.

[bcassidy]

horsenuts--unfortunately, if you wait until the stallion proves himself (especially in the case of Northern Afleet) you either won't be able to get to him unless you have a grade 1 winning or producing mare and/or--- you are willing to shell out some very serious money to breed to him. I have spent a lot of time trying to find these sleeper stallions before they prove how good they are, which is exactly the point, you either believe your data or you don't. It may seem like a big risk to some but if the system works---it pays huge dividends. I have an incredible track record so I am very content to act on my own data. You will see my posts from time to time so you can easily track the stallions I like, just remember I am a "breed to race" breeder so I am most likely going to race my foals not sell them at market. I absolutely understand the difference between these two worlds and the different selections they may require. Great for me----- bad for the commercial breeder or the buyer of a commercial foal.

[bcassidy]

horsenuts--you are correct about Our Emblem, but my system correctly identified him as a weak producer.

My system can also identify stallions that are weak producers and one that comes to mind is Malibu Moon. While he is very hot right now, I don't think his success will continue much longer. He just isn't that strong of a producer.

[ZiaLand]

bcassidy, not to hijack the thread, but I'd be interested in your thoughts on Leestown, and if you've done an analysis on him using your system, and see him as another possible "sleeper".

I lost out on Northern Afleet, and now (probably) Songandaprayer. Don't want to miss a chance at another one before the stud fee jumps. I'm seeing Leestown as very viable. A nicely conformed son of Seattle Slew, great female family, half to Grand Slam and already producing regional stakeswinners in his first couple of crops. He's been steadily climbing up the stallion rankings, too.

Much thanks,
Laurie

[FOS]

hi Sysonby

You wrote "Mr P's first three crops were his Florida progeny. In his first three crops, he had 2 champions (It's in the Air and Gold Beauty) 2 grade/group 1 SWs (Fappiano, Miswaki) and 4 other graded/ group SWs (Distinctive Pro, Gold Stage, Hello Gorgeous, Vain Gold), not to mention a raft of other SWs."

An interesting compilation...but it seems the info was actually better than you indicated. Hello Gorgeous was a G1 winner...and can be added to that category you've created which includes Fappiano and Miswaki.

Mr Prospector was off to an INCREDIBLE start and never looked back (despite the fact he started out at a stud fee of $7,500 Live at Savin Farm in Ocala, Florida...a stud fee that some felt was too high).

And what a diverse group...the early Mr Prospectors...which (as you indicated) included the likes of...

Fappiano...G1 winner (Metropolitan H) in USA and brilliant sprinter and miler on the dirt.

Miswaki...G1 winner in France (Prix de la Salamandre) on the turf...and SW and graded sp on the dirt in the USA.

Hello Gorgeous...G1 winner in England (William Hill Futurity)...and G2 winner and G1 placed at three.

It's In the Air...G1 winner on the dirt and 2-yo champion filly.

Gold Beauty...champion sprinter...and a rare filly that carried highweight vs the boys.

I seriously doubt that Northern Afleet can come close to (much less match) the early accomplishments of Mr Propector. I suggest that's a near impossibility.

And I tend to agree with your comments which include "...I need to see more. Perhaps you're right on NA... but I'll have to see it to be convinced."

The way I see it, Mr Prospector was GREAT (right from the start) and continued to be GREAT over the long haul. I suggest that Northern Afleet has a lot to do before he might establish himself as worthy of consideration for that rare accolade.

I have my doubts...although it's probably unwise to underestimate Northern Afleet's potential...especially with the emergence of his TOP-Class son Afleet Alex, who is all but a certainty to be named three-year-old champion...and is also a contender for Horse of the Year honors.

Respectfully

[LSB]

ZiaLand, I've been watching Leestown for a while too. It looks to me as though he has accomplished a lot without having a great deal in the way of opportunity. I've been wondering when the "big boys" in Kentucky were going to catch on to him.