Now you're a genius, now you're not.

[Pete]

Hi all,

Stop the world, I want to get off! Or at least stop the Freshman Sire List.

Songandaprayer is first and Tiznow second. I’m the genius of the hour because I selected these young sires to top the list in this order but prognosticating stallions is a lot like the weather in Louisiana, wait a minute - it'll change.

This year's freshman crop isn't lighting the world on fire. The leaders have @5 winners and the earnings totals are nothing to write home about. Several of the freshman class may turn out to be good sires, but I don't believe that this will be a crop in the class of 2002 when we saw the emergence of Distorted Humor, Elusive Quality, Awesome Again, Wild Rush and Grand Slam.

When evaluating young sires, patience is a virtue. It's neat to be right, but there are several important months remaining. Don't believe all the hype and doubt the statistics. What you see is not what you get. Examine the quality and consistency of the sire’s runners. Do they stagnate or improve?

Earlier this year I advised a client NOT to use Cape Canaveral despite some good numbers in his first crop, 13 of 34 foals to race won, 4SWs, 8 stakes horses and nearly a million in earnings. The problem was the quality of those stakes foals, mainly in weaker state bred stakes and a lot of earnings from these restricted stakes. Yes It’s True had similar numbers, but substantially more earnings and several high quality runners including Champagne Stakes (G1) winner, Proud Accolade and Chandtrue.

This year Cape Canaveral is faring poorly. His pattern is similar to Editor's Note a few years ago. I like seeing a lot of stakes runners from young sires, but it's important to analyze the quality of those runners.

At least for the moment both Tiznow and Songandaprayer have their ranking based on runners who may not be special, but they're winning in open and graded races. We'll see how much of a genius I am come Christmas.

Regards,

Pete

[Keith]

Songandaprayer has the conformation and he is by a great stallion and out of a very good mare considering she has stakes winners by Island Whirl and a stakes placed filly by Tasso. A grade I winning son of Unbridled's Song with nice conformation was a good call on your part and Congrats. Tiznow is definitely out of a great mare and Tiznow was a great racehorse who beat horses like Giant's Causeway, Sakhee, Galileo, Albert The Great, Fusaichi Pegasus, Lemon Drop Kid, Captain Steve and so on. He beat the best horses in Europe who came to run against him in the Breeder's Cup Classic. Anytime you when the Breeder's Cup Classic twice you are one of the best of your generation and Congrats on picking Tiznow.

Keith

[skeenan]

It makes my head hurt to try to take in all the statistics, sales results, etc. I've come to the conclusion it's almost like the stock market- choose wisely, and you may make a killing at the sales (like for those who chose Freud & made out), choose poorly and lose your shirt or go home with a yearling you don't know what you're going to do with (at least in my case)... and of course, it doesn't even get into how the offspring crop will fare on the track, or the "looks" of the particular yearling you'll end up with... there are so many variables...

I've been giving myself a headache in reviewing my stallion choices... if money was no object, I already know who I'd pick. I'm trying to put together a plan so the first will help pay for the next, so I can "upgrade" to the stallion I really want to go to... and by then, things could change a lot...

Unfortunately, I'm not one of the lucky people who have the uncanny ability to know who will do well, who won't...

My "wait & sees" are Mongoose & Eavesdropper...

[LSB]

I have to admit that I've been (pleasantly) surprised by Tiznow's early success. He wasn't one I expected to see sitting near the top of the First Crop Sire list in August.

He's a big (huge actually) good looking stallion with, of course, an excellent race record, but I didn't like his pedigree enough to breed to him. So as of right now, I guessed wrong.

But that's the fun of watching those roller coaster 2YO lists.

[austique]

Is anybody a little excited about Forest Camp who's getting a good percentage of winners from starters?

[LSB]

Those Forest Camp babies looked wonderful at KeeSep last year. A friend of mine who didn't have time to do his own reconnaissance, sent me around to scope out yearlings by several first year sires. The Forest Camps were very uniform in the way they looked (clearly he had stamped his offspring) and they were a very impressive bunch. My favorite sold for 310K, everyone was interested in him.

[henthorn]

According to the equineline results on Blood Horse website, Forest Camp progeny have had fourteen starts, seven maiden winners, one of them at El Comandante also with two allowance wins, and two others with placings in stakes company. Other tracks include Del Mar, Prairie Meadows, Woodbine, Monmouth, Ellis, Calder, and one in Japan. Total so far is nine starters, seven winners, two stakes-placed (in $50-75K unrestricted stakes). 14 starts, nine wins, three placings (2 in stakes), and two didn't hit the board.

Pretty impressive so far. As nice as he and his progeny look, I'm not surprised at all. He's a sturdy-looking sprinter and he definitely stamps his foals. It remains to be seen how they do as they grow older or try distances.

[FOS]

hi guys

For your consideration...I believe it's fair to say that Tiznow received a significantly superior book to Songandaprayer (at the outset anyway).

With that in mind it's clear that Tiznow's 2-yo G2 SW daughter Folklore is arguably one of the best-bred for possible early-results (on the dam's side of her family anyway) 2-yo fillies out there. The fact that her dam is by Storm Cat who is to my way of thinking proving to be more important as a broodmare-sire than as a sire-of-sires (including broodmare sire of some outstanding juveniles...not the least of which was the undefeated G1 winning 2-yo colt Sky Mesa)...and that her second dam Jeano is by the brilliant Fappiano...and her 3rd dam is by the brilliant In Reality (also the sire of the brilliant Valid Appeal...and we know how some of the In Realitys and Valid Appeals often fared at age two). I find Folklore's female family (close-up) to be extremely appealing (in the brilliance category)...especially when considering the prospects for production of a snappy two-year-old.

I would tend to be slow to credit Tiznow (to the larger degree) for the early success of his daughter Folklore (unless Tiznow shows me early results from other types of mares whose pedigrees might not be so prone to get two-year-olds in general...as Folklore's does). I suggest the early success of Folklore is largely a result of...Storm Cat...Fappiano...and In Reality. Regardless...I believe that Tiznow was a wise choice to breed such a brilliance-laden mare to.

I expect that Tiznow needs to be bred to the neater more compact and brilliant types (as Folklore's female family seems to offer...at least close up) if two-year-old racing (and relatively early to boot) is the goal. Basie (Folklore's 3rd dam) is the kind that could tone-down the huge and sometimes somewhat giraffe-like (for lack of a better description) proportion that a percentage of the Tiznow's seem to expose. It wouldn't surprise me if Folklore's dam Contrive (by Storm Cat) and 2nd dam Jeano (by Fappiano) were not neater, possibly more compact...wider and more robust types...well-muscled with powerful quarters, gaskins and forearm etc. The kind that might tone down the very large (huge as described by many) and less typy Tiznow. Certainly looking at Tiznow does not exude confidence that he's the kind that would tend to generally get early 2-yo's...and I don't sense that he is without help (from his mares) in an attempt to accomplish that.

Regardless...the cross with Tiznow should bode well for the potential of Folklore's future.

For anyone to breed to Tiznow with the expectation that he'll get you a brilliant 2-yo is not something that I could recommend UNLESS you have the mare that should inject something that instills confidence that the chances for early success are increased.

I believe that's the case with Folklore.

Respectfully

[Keith]

Winning Toast a daughter of Forest Camp is running in Saturday's Colleen S. at Monmouth.

Keith

[saintlyCZ]

Very nice discussion, but... I'm sorry, I find it a bit useless.
I admire all people who are able to sit and go through every sales and racing results and through list of sires... that's something I've did once in my life. It was a waste of time, because - as was rightly said - from some past years, freshman sires made a big waves and then sank to the bottom of the breeding oceans. And above all, I don't think that numbers tell you what you need to know...
Both Tiznow and Songandaprayer were my big loves during their careers, so I'm very interesting in them now. As Pete said, it's very important not to look at stats, but to see how good horses really are. From that point, Folklore is nicely fast filly and if she stays healthy, she can have bright future. Songandaprayer's foals are machines for speed and I only hope they'll stay healthy. I don't like Unbridled's Song from that point of view and I must say I like the way little Songandaprayers are made - they look much more solid than usual U's Song type. However, what I wanted to say - so far, foals by both stallions are as fast as I like to see at this point of season. In Tiznow's case not only Folklore, but also Baur au Lac, with not so "modern" pedigree as Folklore has. With this speed - they can both become champions or loose in fields of claimings. But they have a chance. Nothing more.

What I'm fascinated with... Pete says that we'll see on Christmas... Well. So Pete, why don't you wait until Christmas? Why don't you sit and enjoy the success of those stallions and wait how they will do next year?
I'm fed up with all this madness about freshman sires. I don't like the way it changes breeding business. But if breeders want... if they think it's good to do it... what to say.
Only a fool can judge stallions according to how they do with their first crop of two-year-olds. It's nice if they have some success, but it doesn't ensure you anything for next years. And if they have not so big success - like for example Point Given, another my big love - it can change. So now I'm happy with Tiznow, Songandaprayer and Monarchos. Happy, but I'm not going to be crazy. And I'm not unhappy with Point Given. Ask two years later how good they are, and I will tell you. I like to see how fast their juveniles CAN be. Yes. But much more I want to see how good are their classic crops and what will they do as four year olds.

Yes, right now I'm fascinated by fact that Tiznow has gr.2 winner. Fantastic, really. I like Folklore. But that's no reason to say that Tiznow is great sire. Well, if you think you must look at those sire lists, do it and use it the way you want.
But think if it's necessary to make similar discussions at this point of war. Pete, I really like what are you writing. But as you say, it's too early to judge.
And by the way - when you started this discussion: isn't it the same with three year olds? Really not? Just look at Fusaichi Pegasus and Giant's Causeway. Show me one top colt by FuPeg (colt who ends after one start I can't consider as top) and tell me, who will fight for Giant when his two top sons - only top sons - ended at the beginning of summer? Maids Causeway is classy filly, but she's alone. Who's next good runner for her sire? Don't tell me that Noble Causeway, he isn't that good. And in Europe... who knows... me not. Still Giant's stud fee grew up to half a million, if I read it correctly. And I've never read only one word agains FuPeg. Don't tell me anything about Christmas, please...
After this year's freshman sires will show what Montjeu's doing here in Europe now, then I will consider them top stallions. Not earlier.
Cheers
sai

[FOS]

hi saintlyCZ

Thanks for sharing your opinions, observations, insights etc...

...your words seem chock-full of passion.

Respectfully

[FloridaGators]

agree w/Saintly... Pete, you're a bit quick to brag... wait til each sire has at least 50 starters before you start touting yourself.

[Coquinerie]

agree w/Saintly... Pete, you're a bit quick to brag... wait til each sire has at least 50 starters before you start touting yourself.

I think that was the whole point of his post... to show how in one minute a breeder looks like a genius, in the next he could look like a fool with the same freshman stallion choices.

[henthorn]

Gator, I think you are misinterpreting Pete's boasting. As he says, he is the "genius of the hour". He knows it's not likely to last, and he knows it's not a prediction of great sires, just of early leaders in juvenile sire lists.

I agree with Saintly and Pete, that predicting juvenile sire results is not useful except in the sales arena, or for those who like to get their "licks" in early, with the precocious runners that may not last.

[Pete]

Hi saintlyCZ and FloridaGators,

In a forum it's insulting when a person fails to make the effort to clearly understand a post before responding. When you misquote or attribute to a poster things that they didn't say, you diminishing them.

In any forum I am only my words. It's clear from both of your posts that you didn't understand anything I said.

An old adage: Make sure the brain is engaged before putting the mouth in gear.

Coke and Henthorn, thanks for taking the time to understand, it's appreciated.

I concede a singular boast regarding my advice to a client about Cape Canaveral. It was meant to illustrate and be a counterpoint for the intent of my post, to make clear that we should always be re-evaluating our perceptions.

Regards,

Pete