Pedigree Query

hi guys

Now that Rock Hard Ten has been announced as retired from racing...where will he stand at stud...hmmm? I assume that all the usual (and maybe some of the less than usual) suspects will enter the fray (if they haven't already).

Let's consider some possibilities...

Lanes End has the recently retired Saint Liam (it might surprise many if they went after Rock Hard Ten on the heels of such a commitment)...regardless, it would surprise me if they didn't have interest in him (at least to some extent), therefore I suggest they cannot be excluded as possible players. Three Chimneys seems to have all but closed the door completely on pursuing Afleet Alex (and probably still has a suitcase full of cash to pursue another potential Big-Gun). Adena Springs has their recently retired super-star Ghostzapper (among others) to support (although Stronach seems to always have the chips to play). Coolmore/Ashford might pursue an outcross (such as Rock) for their many Storm Cats (and I'd guess the right deal for this kind of horse, and the way he's bred etc could arouse interest by Magnier and Associates...after all they did attempt to get Rock Hard Ten's sire Kris S years ago). Walmac, Gainesway and Airdrie are not likely to come up with the necessary cash. Might Darley show interest (arguably they could go into the petty cash and grab Rock if they felt so inclined, but that's usually not their style). If they were really interested in him as a stallion, I would have expected them to make a move on him while he was racing...and possibly snag him and run him under the Godolphin colors...

...and what about Claiborne...hmmm...they pulled the trigger on Strong Hope last year...but he was NOT a G1 winner...and arguably they could use the addition of a young-and-fresh high-powered multiple G1 winning star attraction to their roster. I wouldn't exclude Claiborne as a potential player (I expect that Seth and Dinny have discussed the possibilities). And what about Taylor Made (will Mr Jones throw his support to the boys or is he committed to his Forestry who might experience resistence at $100k). What about WinStar (might they pursue Rock on their own or possibly partner with Taylor Made)? I suggest that WinStar should not be ignored, their Distorted Humor has been elevated to the $150k level and maybe they could use another young star-prospect (with genuine and arguably very appealing credentials) on the roster...certainly they're not afraid to commit to a HUGE (as in extremely tall) stallion as Rock Hard Ten is reported to be (remember they stand the HUGE Tiznow). Ahhhh...maybe Hill n Dale, but they have committed to Roman Ruler...regardless, maybe Rock Hard Ten will be a perfect replacement for Medaglia D'Oro. And what about Overbrook...if they pulled the trigger on Rock it would arguably serve notice that they're in the game for the next generation. I suggest that the chances are slim to none that Overbrook would make a move on Rock Hard Ten...but it seems like just about anything is possible in this game, so while rule out a farm that could do it if they wanted to. What other players are we missing here? Could Rock possibly be off to Japan?

Needless to say...I expect that numerous farms have been aggressively pursuing Rock for quite some time...but time is almost of the essence now as there is arguably little time to play charades or hard-to-get in a stallion negotiation process. We're on the far side of mid-November and the breeding season is fast approaching.

I expect that a Big deal and/or announcement is on the very near horizon...

...question is...which farm will land Rock Hard Ten...what will it cost to get him...and what stud fee will be tagged on him for 2006?

Thoughts?

Respectfully

My frontrunners would be Three Chimneys, Darley (who did purchase Consolidator after his race career), and perhaps Coolmore (my skin actually crawled when i wrote that). Three Chimneys doesn't have a new young star for next year and I have a feeling they're looking and their Roberto line powerhouse Dynaformer ain't gettin any younger. Darley I think is always looking to expand their stallion roster and they obviously can shake out the couch cushions for a quality horse. Coolmore has a history with the Paulson clan having signed the infertile Cigar.

Lane's End, Hill N Dale, and Taylor Made/Winstar have already brought in significant new blood for this upcoming season. Castleton Lyons I assume is still hung up on Afleet Alex.

How about some really new blood? Walden and Hurricane Hall who were close to snatching Smarty Jones and are actively looking for a top stallion prospect.

I'm not good at syndicate values but I would assume he'll stand for between $40,000 and $60,000 putting him right around Saint Liam whose sire line is also left of center popularity wise. (Gotta love the Suzanne Vega reference).

I'm not sure why, but my instincts are staying Hill N Dale for $45k, though I wouldn't be surprised to see him land at Winstar.

hi Sam

I expect that Hill n Dale is making a serious play for Rock Hard Ten. Not only do I believe he'd be an excellent choice to fill the stall vacated by Medaglia D'Oro...but also I believe he would be the sexy new kid on the block...and would attract HUGE interest.

Arguably, Kris S has not yet had a son at stud that has made a significant impact as a sire...but (I expect you might agree) he is highly regarded as a VERY important son of Roberto, and I believe that many expect that he could ultimately be responsible for siring a son that will impact the breed. Rock Hard Ten seems to have the credentials and makeup to at least offer the dream that he could be the one.

Your instincts tell you that Hill n Dale might be his new home (or possibly WinStar)...I too sense that is VERY possible, but if I had to select a Bud Longshot...I'd say that Coolmore/Ashford could surprise and go for this big-guy.

As for a stud fee...I would guess that a touch below the $50,000 announced for Saint Liam (who most likely will be Horse of the Year) would probably make sense...that $45k (as you suggested) could be right on target...

...that being said...

...I expect that Rock would look cheap at $30k to $35k...probably a strong case could be made that $40k to $45k is right where he should be...but I suggest that even $50k (or above) is possible (although such numbers might open the door for some criticism and/or resistence).

Who knows though...maybe he'll stand for $60k, or possibly more. Let's not forget...even Juddmonte stood their multiple G1 winner and beautifully-bred Empire Maker for $100k (even though he was NOT a champion). Rock might actually be (in the minds of many) a sexier commodity than Empire Maker or Saint Liam and many other recently retired racing stars. Even Coolmore/Ashford stood Fusaichi Pegasus (who won only one G1, albeit the Kentucky Derby, and retired without championship honors) for $150k upon his retirement. Certainly FuPeg is by one of the greatest sires of sires of all time (Mr Prospector)...but even with that feather in his cap, $150k seemed to puuuusssh the envelope (maybe an understatement). I can only imagine what Coolmore might do with such a reputed-to-be-grand-and-spectacular beast named Rock Hard Ten...is $100k impossible if he's in their hands?

If Rock Hard Ten is as good looking and impressive (in the flesh) as we've been led to believe...anything might be possible (especially in the hands of those that have and know how to use to their best advantage exceptional marketing and advertising skills, plus the money to make it all happen...such as Coolmore). A breathtaking and majestic multiple G1 winning (on the DIRT) son of Kris S out of a Mr Prospector daughter (that was not only a 2-yo champion in France but also a G1 winner to boot) sounds very appealing to me.

I expect a deal (possibly a blockbuster) is in the making...and Rock will be marketed and advertised as royalty with super-star looks.

Respectfully

Heh heh...
Who would've guessed last year that the biggest stallion battle of 2005 would involve, not the KY Derby winner, not a near-Triple Crown horse or BC winner or eclipse winner, but good old Rock Hard Ten?

I think he came out on top this year because a) Giacomo won the Kentucky Derby (Giacomo? WHO??), b) a Preakness and Belmont winner just doesn't stir the blood like a Derby and Preakness winner, c) Rock Hard Ten is so hot. Hot. HOT.
Okay, did everyone get that last point? Folks, when a horse has sex appeal, it's just plain creepy. But it's true. I'm scared...

And my bet? Coolmore. They have money, and if they want him they'll do what it takes to get him. They get what ever they want, period. If they don't want him, however... Then I have no clue. I find myself cheering for the underdog, Claiborne, although my crystall ball tells me that is NOT going to happen because they won't have the money that the other farms will be waving. Poopie.
Stud fee? As far as a reasonable fee goes, I have no idea. If Coomore gets hold of him, though, you can bet it'll be inflated. Hey, why not $100,000? He is so sexy, you know- why not $150,000 just for that sexy big bod? Hmm, maybe they'll offer him at $90,000 and call it a bargain.

You raised some good points FOS, but the thing that needs to be remembered (because the breeders sure as hell will) is that he is STILL a Kris S. and Kris S. has yet to prove that he can sire the big stud, and that is not for a lack of opportunity. He's had a handful of good sons go to stud with credentials as good or better than Ten's and they've all come up short (granted, the two biggest -- Dr. Fong and Symboli Kris S. are overseas and still in their infancy at stud).

No matter what kind of appeal RHT has (and yes, he's got more than most Kris S. have retired stateside) he's still not going to be a commercial sire for at least the first 3 years. I fear the reality is that he's going to be a carbon copy of the old man and Kris S. for all the respect he got, was never really a commercial sire. He had to earn his $100k stud fee the hard way.

If the yearlings look good, that will help but the buzz on RHT won't start until they are two and show any kind of precociousness. Otherwise, breeders are going to remember him as being a big, awkward kid at 3 who needed time to grow and they will turn away from him.

Point Given wasn't expected to have early maturing offspring due to his size, what makes RHT any different? I wouldn't run to him for that reason alone.

Intrinsic Worth wrote:Point Given wasn't expected to have early maturing offspring due to his size, what makes RHT any different? I wouldn't run to him for that reason alone.

Ah yes, but Tiznow wasn't expected to have good early runners either and look what happened there.

Sam wrote:If the yearlings look good, that will help but the buzz on RHT won't start until they are two and show any kind of precociousness. Otherwise, breeders are going to remember him as being a big, awkward kid at 3 who needed time to grow and they will turn away from him.

I have to respectfully disagree. There's plenty of buzz around RHT right now and most of it consists of our high expectations concerning his conformation. If he looks as good as advertised, I'm betting that his book will fill within a day or two of the announcement of where he's going.

In a sales climate where big and handsome and correct sells better than anything else, I think breeders will be willing to bet that RHT will be the son of Kris S. that makes his daddy proud at stud.

I have to agree LSB--personal charisma is a big thing in stallions and RHT has it in spades. I think some people will be shocked at the fee that will be asked for and that they will get.

hi Sam...hi Intrinsic Worth...hello LSB

Intrinsic wrote "Point Given wasn't expected to have early maturing offspring due to his size, what makes RHT any different? I wouldn't run to him for that reason alone."

I for one thought that Point Given was a MONSTER race horse. Upon his retirement (when I first set eyes on him at Three Chimneys) it was IMMEDIATELY clear to me that I could not recommend that anyone breed to him under any conditions. He was (for starters) back at the knee etc etc etc and offered very few (if any) redeeming qualities as a stallion prospect (as far as I was concerned). Again...he was a super-star monster racehorse, and his pedigree was adequate (although nothing to write home about) as far as I was concerned...but as a physical specimen at the outset of his new career as a breeding stallion (intended to sire quality racehorses)...he was unacceptable as far as I was concerned...approaching HORRIBLE !!!

Rock Hard Ten (on the other hand) has been described over and over by many industry players and/or observers as a grand-looking...powerhouse...beautiful...athletic...majestic...huge...handsome...correct...etc etc etc equine adonis. Other than being constantly reminded of his size/height (which seemed to be factual rather than a negative) I cannot recall hearing or reading a negative comment related to his looks or conformation.

Who knows...I might disagree with others when I have the opportunity to view and scrutinize Rock myself...but assuming he is everything that we have been led to believe (looks wise)...I expect that he will be overwhelmingly supported by the breeding community. Of course stud fee, where he stands and how he's managed etc etc will come into play.

Yes Sam, there might be (in the eyes of some) a cloud of sorts over Rock to the extent that Kris S has not yet sired a son that has become an important sire. Regardless...I suggest that this guy (Rock Hard Ten) will be given a pass by many...if he is (physically) as advertised.

As an aside...let me ask you...Saint Liam (announced at $50,000 for 2006) is by Saint Ballado...what has SB done as a sire of sires? Not much as far as I'm concerned (and that might be an overstatement), maybe leaning toward being a slug (so far) is a better description.

Getting back on track here...I suggest that Rock's credentials as a multiple G1 winning racehorse are what they are (is impressive an understatement)...his pedigree is what it is (and being out of a champion 2-yo and G1 winning daughter of Mr Prospector is [from my perspective] a HUGE feather in Rock Hard Ten's cap). Furthermore (and EXTREMELY important as far as I'm concerned), Rock was a 100% DIRT horse.

I believe that Kris S was a VERY important son of Roberto...and his son Rock Hard Ten will be welcome with open arms and very strongly supported. If anything...I expect that his size/height might be a priority concern (by some breeders) in the mare selection process.

Furthermore...this is not Prized (out of a My Dad George mare) or 2-year-old champion Action This Day (out of a Trempolino daughter)...this is Rock Hard Ten (out of a Mr Prospector that's out of a Jacinto [by Bold Ruler] that's out of a Hail To Reason). I believe this horse will be managed (and possibly perceived by many) as equine royalty with movie star looks.

This is a game of dreams...there are no guarantees...but I sense that if he is the physical being that we've been led to believe that he is...that Rock Hard Ten has a strong possibility of being a (if not the) son of Kris S that breaks through and proves to be a successful, if not sensational, sire.

LSB might have capsulized it and hit the nail on the head when she wrote "...I think breeders will be willing to bet that RHT will be the son of Kris S. that makes his daddy proud at stud."

I find Rock Hard Ten to be a very exciting young stallion prospect...and as always, all things must be considered (including his size/height) when selecting mare(s) to be bred to him.

And let's not forget...he has a great name

Respectfully

From the day I saw him do an extended trot on the way to a start I have wanted to breed to him. Not a Tb but my WB mare who is confirmed 3rd level and is moving up to Prelim level eventing this year with a local Pony Clubber. <sigh..... with my head in the clouds LOL!>

I would be really surprised to see him go to Claiborne, as he would compete more or less directly with their homebred Arch.

That said, Claiborne hasn't landed a truly hot stallion prospect for years, and of their old-school powerhouses, only Seeking the Gold is still servicing mares.

kimberley mine wrote:I would be really surprised to see him go to Claiborne, as he would compete more or less directly with their homebred Arch.

That said, Claiborne hasn't landed a truly hot stallion prospect for years, and of their old-school powerhouses, only Seeking the Gold is still servicing mares.

Kimberley have you heard of PULPIT? Geez don't post without thinking this is an excellent forum with a ton of Knowledge.
Sorry Kim but PULPIT is a Superstar Stallion in the making on turf and dirt!

As for the "Rock" I am shocked that you folks have such regard for him and his Pedigree.. First , as a racehorse he was fair to midland. maybe because his intial trainer had no clue but clearly he NEVER proved versatility or brillance.
His sie Kris S career has been flawed with best results in non commercial grass horses.. Kris S has rarely thrown any briallant animals! I have no clue other then conformation why anyone would spend more then 25k to breed to such animal.. Look Saarland from the great Unbridled and Vtreaty was said to magnificent, how can you compare pedigrees? I understand saarland barely ran a step but I would rather breed to UNbribled / Vtreaty for 10 or 15 then 100k on a Kris S California Mandella juiced non special Gorgeous horse. I think Kris S is a tough sell and I agree that the Mr P on the bottom changes a lot. Lets consider what nicks to KRis S? Remember Mr P based gals are OUT. SC gals, ok makes some sense but SC gals are excelling with Seeking/Mr P sires why gamble? Deputy Minster gals seems logical although I would need to check further. To me you would have to go Northern Dancer gals? I do not know Kris S and The fact the horse never showed me anything except beating a sub par group doesn't excite me.. I would stand him in California and let him go head to head with Swiss Yodeler's and Bertrandos' LOL

hi freddymo

Many good points (although I am not conviced that you are fair and/or correct in your assessments) . For example, you wrote "First , as a racehorse he was fair to midland." In my opinion winning multiple G1's (as Rock Hard Ten did) is more than a "fair to midland" accomplishment.

Regardless...you might agree, that sometimes good sense (if an out of sight stud fee is tagged on a stallion prospect) might be overshadowed by charisma, appeal (whatever you want to call it). In the case of Rock, I believe he has the charisma and appeal necessary to ignite significant support for him (as he undertakes his new career as a breeding stallion).

As for mates for Rock (as you talked about), what about other than the usual suspects...for starters, how about considering some Valid Appeal, Relaunch or Successful Appeal etc (all In Reality-line) mares for Rock...and I wouldn't ignore or even discount the fact that there are an abundance of Storm Cat sons that have many many many daughters that might just fit Rock Hard Ten beautifully...and what about daughters and granddaughters of Seattle Slew and his many sons, etc etc etc?

Regarding Rock Hard Ten, you wrote "His sire Kris S career has been flawed with best results in non commercial grass horses.."...

Seems like you're overlooking or discounting the fact that (for what it's worth) Kris S for many years (starting at the outset and extending well into his career as a stallion) had a limited (maybe minimal is a better description) opportunity, breeding mostly what might be considered cheap (or even no-count might be a fair description for some). That was arguably the abundance of the kind that he was bred to for many years in Florida. From many many less than impressive pedigrees and/or producers came some excellent runners...including such superstars as Hollywood Wildcat and Prized etc etc etc. As a result of his accomplishments (in relation to his opportunities), Kris S attracted attention.

Kris S (even when he stood [after many years at stud] for $12,500 in Florida) was usually a very easy stallion to get a season to, even on short notice. Needless to say...rarely was he in high demand until he made a move to Kentucky (which by the way was at a somewhat advanced age). Prior to his move, Coolmore was hot on his tail to get hold of him...they did not.

Regarding Unbridled (who you referenced)...he was a champion that received significant attention and support from day one (at Gainesway). Unlike Kris S who you could easily get to for a couple of thousand upon his retirement to stud at Meadowbrook Farm (In Florida), Unbridled stood for $50k at the outset (if I recall correctly).

All Things Considered...Kris S overcame almost EVERY obstacle and proved ultimately to be one heck of a sire. The one obstacle he has yet to hurdle is siring a son that is a successful sire. I expect that many breeders who will seriously evaluate Kris S for what he's accomplished in relation to the slim (probably a fair description) chances he received...will give Rock Hard Ten a good chance to make it at stud. Kris S has not yet sired a successful son at stud...but I expect that many (if not most breeders) might agree that Rock Hard Ten (who was a 100% dirt horse) might very well be the one to break the mold.

I expect that if he stands for $40k or $45k (or less) he will be the beneficiary of HUGE outside support...and if Coolmore (for example) gets their hands on him, I expect that they will have him full to the limit...regardless of the stud fee.

Rock Hard Ten might or might not be a success at stud...but I expect he will be given a HUGE opportunity at stud...and my guess is that he'll pass the test with flying colors.

Respectfully.