Pedigree Query

Drumroll please:
http://news.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=31220



They should start announcing the retirement of these horses before the start of the Belmont, don't bother tugging on our hopes

Oh, by the way: predictions on stud fee and farm begin NOW!

If you knew it all along, you must be clairvoyant. It seemed to me that AA's connections really did plan to race him at four (and in the Breeders Cup, if they could have gotten him ready in time.) They seemed like true sportsmen and I'm sorry for their bad luck.

Hey, just take it as a given: any dual Classic winner with testicles , in this day in age, will NOT race into his 4yo season. Recent history says it 's not gonna happen.
Just think about all the promises Smarty Jones' connections lavished on us last year- Smarty Jones will race again, Smarty Jones will definately make it to his 4yo season, we love watching Smarty Jones run and want him to run in the Dubai World Cup!

What Cash Is King told us this year: Afleet Alex will race again, Afleet Alex will definately make it to his 4yo season, we love watching Afleet Alex run and want him to try turf next season!

Yeah, I've learned not to believe.
Now, if they said all of this about a gelding, well- that I could buy, because how much of a stud fee could they get on him, anyway?
(I will admit, though, that I just had the teeniest bit of hope- the teeniest- that Cash would be bold and break the mold. But then they kept delaying his starts, and there melted my shred of hope).

I'd just like to point out that the injury which supposedly forced his retirement is believed to have occured before the fracture and was noticed upon x-rays following the surgery. How does one take that and how does one take it that they are trying to play it off as an entirely new issue while knowing about it for months? I'm not so warm and fuzzy about Cash is King. They've played this like a PR firm at the expense of the racing fan and while I do believe the horse is legitimately injured, I'm sort of annoyed at the way his always looming retirement played out. JMHO.

austique wrote:I'd just like to point out that the injury which supposedly forced his retirement is believed to have occured before the fracture and was noticed upon x-rays following the surgery. How does one take that and how does one take it that they are trying to play it off as an entirely new issue while knowing about it for months? I'm not so warm and fuzzy about Cash is King. They've played this like a PR firm at the expense of the racing fan and while I do believe the horse is legitimately injured, I'm sort of annoyed at the way his always looming retirement played out. JMHO.

It just occurred to me --(I'm sure they've known longer than they're saying you're right) what about when they trotted him out to show off before the crowd at the track even though he wasn't going to race....was it really a farewell kind of thing just in case he didn't make it but we just didn't know it? or was it straight up sportsmanship in and of itself? I think though that maybe they hoped it would work out and it didn't, they kept it quiet for a little while, and now they're telling. I'm sure up to a point the 4yo hopes were real. I'd just like to know the turning point timeframe.

austique wrote:I'd just like to point out that the injury which supposedly forced his retirement is believed to have occured before the fracture and was noticed upon x-rays following the surgery. How does one take that and how does one take it that they are trying to play it off as an entirely new issue while knowing about it for months?

I don't think so. Avascular necrosis is a slow and gradual thing, and as bone dies, more bloodflow is cut off. Then more bone dies. I know this as after a car wreck several years ago, I was under constant, intense supervision to make sure it didn't happen to me. I wasn't declared "clear" with no chance of necrosis related to the wreck until five years after it happened. Thus, I entirely believe that they didn't find a significant amount of dead bone until 8 months later. One small spot of dead bone may not show up amongst good solid bone until too late, as happened here.

I think y'all may be giving newcomers too much credit in the publicity and stallion department.

If they were truly savvy about cashing out, Cash Is King would have wrapped up the stud deal after the Belmont at the peak of AA's value. Instead they dragged the process out, got a verbal commitment that blew up over Breeders Cup weekend. Now they are really coming to the table late with a horse that has lost a significant amount of his stud value (as compared with post Belmont).

I think they truly believed that AA would be the same or better racehorse in 2006. When faced with the reality of insurance premiums, potential lost revenue, the prospect of a deal at 60% of the original blown deal, and a career ending injury, they have received a quick and tough education - I do not believe they intended to deceive the public.

Cash Is King may just now begin to truly appreciate what a great racehorse AA is/was, and how tough this game is.

does this mean that there is a chance that alex will end up starting his career in a well supported regional market for year 1?

No, AA will be in Ky, and probably standing for $40,000. However quite a few of the mares that are bred at that level have already been committed to other stallions, so it will not be an easy 1st year. Having said that, I still believe he will breed 120 (or more depending upon the farm that stands him). He should prove equally popular in his 2nd year but his "bubble" years (3rd and 4th) could prove difficult.

A number of farms working on AA and RHT as we speak. The Cash Is King crew flew into Lexington today to meet with a number of farms.

hi roving boy

$40,000 (as you indicated that Afleet Alex will "probably" stand for) is a number that seems to make sense...but arguably the bloom is (at least to some extent) off the flower. As a result...I expect that many mare-owners might be more critical of him NOW (as a sire-hopeful) than they might have been if a deal had been made when the enthusiasm and fervor surrounding Alex was rampant (maybe post Belmont, as you mentioned).

Regardless...I expect he'll still get serious attention from some...but the volume and quality of interest have probably been affected (by the timing), and I expect that it would take one heck of a farm to regenerate (in some measure) the excitement...and attract the kind of support that Afleet Alex might have had if a deal had been done months ago.

Respectfully

Hi FOS

I agree with you, AA will not have the same market punch or appeal that he would have had his entry into the stallion ranks been less tumultuous and more timely.

roving boy wrote:No, AA will be in Ky, and probably standing for $40,000. However quite a few of the mares that are bred at that level have already been committed to other stallions, so it will not be an easy 1st year.

I think that says it all. 40K is a reasonably stiff price for what AA brings to the table. I have three mares that I booked in that price range, including one that I held for what seemed like forever to see where RHT was going. With many other good stallions' books closing, however, I finally went ahead and booked her elsewhere last week.

I think AA is going to have to rely on farm support to come up with 120 mares at that stud fee.