Breeding on the Bubble?
Moderators: Roguelet, WaveMaster, madelyn
Breeding on the Bubble?
What 3rd crop stallion would you consider breeding to for a commercial foal? These should be stallions that stood their first year in 2004.
Obviously there are the big press guys like Mineshaft, Sky Mesa, and Empire Maker who might hold their value reasonably well just on name alone.
For cheaper options I like Kafwain (but I'm biased). He's median was 4 times his stud fee on first crop weanlings. I think he'll get horses that just get better as they get older and progress through the sales and he should get foals who can run early. Big drawback with him is his head. Most of the foals I saw go through Keenland via Internet had pretty nasty heads. Darley is supporting him purchasing a colt at Keenland.
My way outside the box pick would be Cactus Ridge who's weanlings have sold well in relation to his stud fee and he should get some early maturing stock. Walmac is flexible on terms also which is nice. His female family isn't that good though.
For cheaper options I like Kafwain (but I'm biased). He's median was 4 times his stud fee on first crop weanlings. I think he'll get horses that just get better as they get older and progress through the sales and he should get foals who can run early. Big drawback with him is his head. Most of the foals I saw go through Keenland via Internet had pretty nasty heads. Darley is supporting him purchasing a colt at Keenland.
My way outside the box pick would be Cactus Ridge who's weanlings have sold well in relation to his stud fee and he should get some early maturing stock. Walmac is flexible on terms also which is nice. His female family isn't that good though.
I don't have low self-esteem. I have low esteem for everyone else. ~ Daria
Take a look at how the Buddhas have been selling.
http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/isd/au ... nt#pagetop
http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/isd/au ... nt#pagetop
I just saw Buddha over the weekend. He didn't strike me as being very offset. The thing that bothers me about him is that he seems to be somewhat top-heavy. He has a big, solid body on legs that could be a bit longer and heavier boned for his frame. But Sysonby is certainly right. His offspring have been selling like crazy.
A friend of mine, whose opinion I respect, had a Kafwain filly that she loves this year and she's breeding the mare back to Kafwain in 2006.
A friend of mine, whose opinion I respect, had a Kafwain filly that she loves this year and she's breeding the mare back to Kafwain in 2006.
Does anybody have an opinion about Proud Citizen as a bubble stallion? PC had huge books of mares, and based on the CI, he's getting some good ones. In 2004 he was bred to 157 mares with a CI of 1.74; this year he was bred to 136 mares with a CI of 1.81. Those are terrific CIs given the size of his book. By comparison, Kafwain's CIs were 1.35 and 1.27 on books of 142 and 129 for 2004 and 2005 respectively. Given the stud fee difference (PC is $17,500; Kafwain is $10,000), you could make the case that Kafwain is the better value between these two. Both stallions got about 68% of their mares in foal; resulting in a crop of about 100 2YOs for next year.
Northern Dancer line mares are a natural for Proud Citizen, all other things being equal, because his third dam is a full sister to Northern Dancer.
Like Kafwain, Proud Citizen showed the kind of racing ability that makes a good stallion; tremendous speed along with the ability to get a classic distance.
Northern Dancer line mares are a natural for Proud Citizen, all other things being equal, because his third dam is a full sister to Northern Dancer.
Like Kafwain, Proud Citizen showed the kind of racing ability that makes a good stallion; tremendous speed along with the ability to get a classic distance.
Hey Fox, I used to live in New Canaan--we were neighbors. 
Proud Citizen...I bred a mare to him last year and then sold her in the Nov. sale. The breeding was made with the knowledge that I would be selling her before she foaled. I didn't see many of the PC weanlings, but overall I was somewhat disappointed by the way they were received by the market. In other words, I didn't think they sold that well.
As for breeding on the bubble, there's nothing that could convince me to breed to an Airdrie stallion in the third or fourth year.
Proud Citizen...I bred a mare to him last year and then sold her in the Nov. sale. The breeding was made with the knowledge that I would be selling her before she foaled. I didn't see many of the PC weanlings, but overall I was somewhat disappointed by the way they were received by the market. In other words, I didn't think they sold that well.
As for breeding on the bubble, there's nothing that could convince me to breed to an Airdrie stallion in the third or fourth year.
Hi Folks,
Rock Slide, full brother to Mineshaft is a nice choice for the bubble @$7,500 (perhaps less this year?>. Generally you play the bubble on less expensive stallions and not on more costly ones (and the dynamic of cost is generally a personal matter of affordability). As a FULL brother, Rock Slide should have more appeal than if he were a 1/2 sibling and he was a SW on both turf and dirt, commercial sire line and excellent pedigree.
Proud Citizen's fee has increased from $12,500 to $17,500 and if it remains at this level, you'll be paying more for a bubble that can burst. I like this stallion @$12,500 but far less so at $17.5k on the bubble.
At $12,500 I'd suggest looking into Ecton Park who is showing very nicely with his first crop and is a better chance to be a commercial success than most any unproven stallion in his price range. He is bred very similarly to Distorted Humor (both sons of Fourty Niner out of Danzig mares), hasn't been as strong with his first crop (as Distorted Humor), but has had enough success to have substantial upside potential. It's a conservative bubble play. Broken Vow is in a similar situation, higher fee ($15k), and had a big horse (Private Vow). Both stallions sire lines can achieve solid market appeal.
Personally I preferred Kafwain in his first year and not so much in 2000. His sire line is cooling (somewhat) and overall I believe you'll need greater success from Kafwain compared to other sire lines to maintain commercial appeal. I don't see any need to push the rock up a hill that's getting steeper. I'd be just as inclined to breed to Kafwain in 2007 if Yonaguska does well.
Hold That Tiger's fee is reduced in 2006 to $12,500 and he will have an enormous number of foals in front of anyone breeding to him in 2006. The raw numbers from Ashford can make a stallion but beware these same stallions in their 5-7th crops, like Grand Slam (dropped from $85k to $50k) and Tale Of The Cat (dropped to $50k from $75k). The raw numbers and inability to sustain their inertia can result in loss of appeal. 2006 might be a good year to try Hold That Tiger.
The percentage of stallions who have success with their first yearlings and are heavily bred on the bubble accordingly - only to fail is high. Patton and Gold Fever are two sires that come to mind that saw increases in their stud fees (based on sales averages) going into their first crop's 2yo year only to fail commercially. Sales averages can be manipulated and are not a reliable guide to potential success with first crop runners.
Padua has quietly done a nice job with their young stallions from Yes It's True in 2004 to their 2005 first crop stallions, Exchange Rate and Delaware Township who are currently #6 and #10 on the first year sires list. Snow Ridge is a solid candidate for a bubble play, especially @$5,000. He was bred to 96 mares in 2003 with 64 lf/74 reports and has also been bred to 87 mares in both 2004 and 2005. Padua has supported their stallions with many of their own mares in the past and I'm confident that there are several that have visited Snow Ridge. A very fast sprinter who raced in quality company from 2-4, his sire, Tabasco Cat, was sold before his potential was reached and he has been one of the most solid sons of Storm Cat at stud. A number of Snow Ridge yearlings were well sold this year. You'd be breeding to him in his 4th year but I believe that Snow Ridge will be a top 10 2yo sire in 2006 and the overall commercial appeal of his sire line should be leveraged by his performance.
Good luck,
Pete
Rock Slide, full brother to Mineshaft is a nice choice for the bubble @$7,500 (perhaps less this year?>. Generally you play the bubble on less expensive stallions and not on more costly ones (and the dynamic of cost is generally a personal matter of affordability). As a FULL brother, Rock Slide should have more appeal than if he were a 1/2 sibling and he was a SW on both turf and dirt, commercial sire line and excellent pedigree.
Proud Citizen's fee has increased from $12,500 to $17,500 and if it remains at this level, you'll be paying more for a bubble that can burst. I like this stallion @$12,500 but far less so at $17.5k on the bubble.
At $12,500 I'd suggest looking into Ecton Park who is showing very nicely with his first crop and is a better chance to be a commercial success than most any unproven stallion in his price range. He is bred very similarly to Distorted Humor (both sons of Fourty Niner out of Danzig mares), hasn't been as strong with his first crop (as Distorted Humor), but has had enough success to have substantial upside potential. It's a conservative bubble play. Broken Vow is in a similar situation, higher fee ($15k), and had a big horse (Private Vow). Both stallions sire lines can achieve solid market appeal.
Personally I preferred Kafwain in his first year and not so much in 2000. His sire line is cooling (somewhat) and overall I believe you'll need greater success from Kafwain compared to other sire lines to maintain commercial appeal. I don't see any need to push the rock up a hill that's getting steeper. I'd be just as inclined to breed to Kafwain in 2007 if Yonaguska does well.
Hold That Tiger's fee is reduced in 2006 to $12,500 and he will have an enormous number of foals in front of anyone breeding to him in 2006. The raw numbers from Ashford can make a stallion but beware these same stallions in their 5-7th crops, like Grand Slam (dropped from $85k to $50k) and Tale Of The Cat (dropped to $50k from $75k). The raw numbers and inability to sustain their inertia can result in loss of appeal. 2006 might be a good year to try Hold That Tiger.
The percentage of stallions who have success with their first yearlings and are heavily bred on the bubble accordingly - only to fail is high. Patton and Gold Fever are two sires that come to mind that saw increases in their stud fees (based on sales averages) going into their first crop's 2yo year only to fail commercially. Sales averages can be manipulated and are not a reliable guide to potential success with first crop runners.
Padua has quietly done a nice job with their young stallions from Yes It's True in 2004 to their 2005 first crop stallions, Exchange Rate and Delaware Township who are currently #6 and #10 on the first year sires list. Snow Ridge is a solid candidate for a bubble play, especially @$5,000. He was bred to 96 mares in 2003 with 64 lf/74 reports and has also been bred to 87 mares in both 2004 and 2005. Padua has supported their stallions with many of their own mares in the past and I'm confident that there are several that have visited Snow Ridge. A very fast sprinter who raced in quality company from 2-4, his sire, Tabasco Cat, was sold before his potential was reached and he has been one of the most solid sons of Storm Cat at stud. A number of Snow Ridge yearlings were well sold this year. You'd be breeding to him in his 4th year but I believe that Snow Ridge will be a top 10 2yo sire in 2006 and the overall commercial appeal of his sire line should be leveraged by his performance.
Good luck,
Pete
Has a palomino jean that pop up some.
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
Hi Sysonby,
Thanks for the link to the BUDDHA sales. He has done well but I think that you'll find that many of the top sales were successful pinhooks and some of the others have some solid pedigrees.
What I'm seeing is that the Buddhas are improving over time (in general) and with some pedigree, a top individual can bring a big price.
If you're considering Buddha, I'd look for comparisons to the mares you intend to breed to him.
Regards,
Pete
Thanks for the link to the BUDDHA sales. He has done well but I think that you'll find that many of the top sales were successful pinhooks and some of the others have some solid pedigrees.
What I'm seeing is that the Buddhas are improving over time (in general) and with some pedigree, a top individual can bring a big price.
If you're considering Buddha, I'd look for comparisons to the mares you intend to breed to him.
Regards,
Pete
Has a palomino jean that pop up some.
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
Pete wrote:Hi Sysonby,
Thanks for the link to the BUDDHA sales. He has done well but I think that you'll find that many of the top sales were successful pinhooks and some of the others have some solid pedigrees.
What I'm seeing is that the Buddhas are improving over time (in general) and with some pedigree, a top individual can bring a big price.
If you're considering Buddha, I'd look for comparisons to the mares you intend to breed to him.
Regards,
Pete
I didn't make it back to Keeneland for September but I heard from some buyers that Buddha appears to be the real deal at least at this preliminary stage. A lot of striking individuals that look like stone runners. What they actually do of course is a whole different kettle of fish but I know someone who was so impressed with the looks of the Buddhas that he booked a mare to him this year. And this topic was about stallions on the bubble.
Me I stay in California where the water isn't so deep
