Pedigree Query

This is a very interesting topic that means alot to most that vist this site I believe in that these type stallions have the most appeal to everyday & regional breeders. I have never really broke these types down by % & would love to try & make a list with your help. A couple that come to mind that fit this list are Meadow Monster in having 178 foals with 115 runners & 81 winners & Slew City Slew with 585 foals, 496 runners & 359 winners.

runners/total foals = % runners
winners/total foals = % winners..

So Meadow Monster = 64.6% runners and 45.5% winners.
Slew City Slew = 84.8% runners and 61.4% winners.

You can do the same calc for stakes winners.

Interestingly, for all the hoopla and outrageous stud fees, here are Fusaichi Pegasus' latest numbers (remember, also, he got top mares):

Lifetime Current Current Lifetime
Year 2-Year-Olds 2-Year-Olds


Foals of Racing Age 467 467 171 467
Starters(/foals of RA) 176(38%) 50(11%) 4(2%) 123(26%)
Winners (/foals of RA) 90(19%) 13(3%) 1(1%) 47(10%)
Stakes Winners
(/foals of RA) 12(3%) 1(0%) 0(0%) 9(2%)
Stakes Placers
(/foals of RA) 17(4%) 2(0%) 0(0%) 11(2%)
Starts 783 138 6 314
Wins (/starts) 131(17%) 14(10%) 1(17%) 64(20%)
Placings (/starts) 215(27%) 37(27%) 1(17%) 86(27%)

Anyhow, it is a very simple thing to calculate for yourself. More interesting to calculate a dollar value/stud fee thing.

Fu Peg's oldest foals are only 3, well, now 4, so out of 3 crops, one crop is barely older than yearlings, one crop just turned 3, and one turned 4, so those numbers are entirely skewed, especially when comparing them to a sire with probably 15 or more crops on the ground. Fu Peg has 3 crops of racing age Apples and oranges.

For the regional folks:

Skip Trial (Bridlewood, $5000)
89% runners, 77% winners from foals

I don't have percentages him, but a person whose judgement I trust from Maryland has nothing but good things to say about Ameri Valay's runners. Also in Maryland, Waquoit and Not For Love both get 81% runners and 62% winners from foals.

In Kentucky, Evansville Slew, Slew City Slew, and Bright Launch have done very well with very limited opportunity.

halo wrote:Fu Peg's oldest foals are only 3, well, now 4, so out of 3 crops, one crop is barely older than yearlings, one crop just turned 3, and one turned 4, so those numbers are entirely skewed, especially when comparing them to a sire with probably 15 or more crops on the ground. Fu Peg has 3 crops of racing age Apples and oranges.

Sorry to break it to you, but FuPegs numbers -- even adjusting for age and dual hemi runners -- really ARE that bad.

http://www.pedigreequery.com/forum/view ... on&start=0

thread about him from last year ... and the news didn't get any better in the following 11 months

Sam, sorry to break it to you, but you have to use numbers according to the foal crops to the races. Using any numbers for him from last year is even more worthless. Fu Peg has only had one crop fully to the races. Its entirely unfair to include a stallions newly turned 2 year olds into racing statistics, when they comprise 1/3 of his total foals. Im not for or against him, Im just stating that at this point, you can only compare him to others of his sire crop. His dual hemisphere numbers are unfair to use, also, has they are 6 months behind, so his newly turned 2 year olds here are still yearlings in the pastures down there. His newly turned 3 year olds here have barely started their careers down there. Only once he has had several crops that have completed their racing careers can you get a good handle on his winners/runners and winners/foals ratio.

FuPeg's offspring aren't impressing breeders in Australia and New Zealand. They are too crazy to settle and run any kind of distance. They are also not liking the turf.

He won't be shuttling down there much longer

Using Brisnet figures, which doesnt seem to use Southern Hemisphere numbers, just to compare Fu Peg with Giants Causeway, 2 of the most maligned stallions Ive ever seen, are as follows:

Fu Peg

2002 foals-- 103
runners --- 67
winners ----46
SW----------9


GC

2002 foals-- 135
Runners--- 113
Winners ----59
SW ---------9


So whos the better sire? And Im really not interested in hearing "none".

halo wrote:Using any numbers for him from last year is even more worthless.

Well that was just a stupid sentence. We certainly can't use any numbers for him for this year since the year JUST started.

Actually, I know what you were trying to say... I just thought it read foolishly.

Those were last years numbers -- adjusted for dual hemisphere MEANING I TOOK OUT ALL OF HIS NORTH AMERICAN TWO YEAR OLDS AND DID NOT USE THEM FOR CALCULATIONS -- the numbers SUCKED and they didn't improve over the year.

*I* know how to adjust the numbers and not just blindly follow what the Jockey Club supplies.

Let's start with the fact that he is credited with 467 foals of racing age and 171 of those are current 2yos. Take them ALL out (NH and SH) that leaves 296 horses of racing age that are, at their YOUNGEST, newly turned 3yos. More than a fair way to start since the prime goal of commercial breeders anymore is the precocious 2yo. So we have 296 3-4yos to run numbers on.

Of those 296, only 172 have started (that's taking out the 4 2yo starters he's currently credited with since those are Aussies). 58% starters. That's bad when the oldest are now 4yo.

Of those 296, only 89 have won a race (again, taking out the lone 2yo winner he currently has). 30% winners/foals 3yo and up and 52% winners/starters. Those aren't just bad, they are UNFORGIVABLE for a stallion going into his third crop and demanding a $125k stud fee.

Of those 296, only 12 have won a stake. TWELVE. 4% SW/foals and barely 7% SW/starters. Any other newly turned 3rd crop sire with those kind of numbers would have already seen their stud fee SLASHED IN HALF.

Those 296 horses that are now 3 and 4yos have only made 783 starts. That means they are AVERAGING 2.64 starts/horse. That tells me they are UNSOUND. For comparison, Stephen Got Even (also a newly turned 3rd crop sire standing for a 5th of FuPeg's fee -- and whom I really don't like at all) has 62 starters who've amassed 434 starts for an average of 7 starts PER HORSE. War Chant (also a newly turned 3rd crop sire and the third highest studfee) has 66 starters/302 starts for an average of 4.58

As to your question about who's the better sire: Giant's Causeway or FuPeg. FuPeg has some serious quality issues considering what he's been bred to so even though he's winners/starters number is better, Giant's Causeway is the better stallion.

This is from BRIS, which is only NA statistics.

In The Stud - FUSAICHI PEGASUS, 1997

--------By Crops (All Seasons)--------- Seasons (All Crops)
Wnrs $ Crop Av Per Wnrs
Yr....... Fls..... Rnrs.... (Sws) Earnings Rnr Yr (Wins) Earnings
=====================================================================

2002..103...67....46( 9)...5,264,977.... 78,582.. 2004 17( 25) 1,248,823
2003.. 109..38....15( 3)...1,049,479.... 27,618.. 2005 47( 65) 5,065,633
2004.. 83.....0..... 0( 0)... 0... 0
2005..138....0..... 0( 0)... 0... 0


I dont think its fair to consider southern hemisphere horses, they are 6 months behind us. So you can interpret the figures any way you wish, but in his first crop he's about 9% stakes winners, which is a good figure. Im not saying he's the second coming of Danzig, god rest his soul, but I dont think he's as bad as some would think.

OK enough already!!!! Actually I like this topic as I love the idea of studs that will actually get you a foal you can enjoy over time. I find that the Relaunch and Buckaroo lines particularly tough and I am sure there are plenty out there on the regional circuit just as solid. A friend of mine stands Comeonmom in upstate NY and he has had 4 starters for 4 winners from nothing mares.

Sorry I didn't mean for the thought behind the thread to get hijacked! I was just offering a formula for calculating the numbers and then once done I thought the contrast between the stallions asked about and FuPeg was so marked it was worth highlighting. I think FuPeg is a waste of money, but more than Anything Else, a waste of a year of a good mare's life. It would leave more mares and money in the breeding pool available if FuPeg would simply cease to be a factor. JMHO.

I think there are a lot of very good stallions out there $50K and under... that can breed good racing stock.

halo wrote:I dont think its fair to consider southern hemisphere horses, they are 6 months behind us.

Nonsense. That's as silly as saying we shouldn't consider his late May/June foals with his January foals.

And what do you propose we do when those Aussies come up here and race? They don't count either since they weren't born here?

I'm not saying he's a bad stallion, I'm saying he's a ROTTEN stallion at his current stud fee.

As for Brisnet's number only including his NA crop .. no it doesn't. They may SAY it does, but more than once I've pulled reports and KNOWN that it includes horses born on SH time that have never set foot in this country.

Even still, going with Brisnet's numbers he's got 212 foals (02s and 03s) and 105 starters for 49.5%. That's even WORSE than if you leave the Aussies in the mix.

Those 105 starters have produced 61 winners. 28% winner from foals and 58% winners from starters. Those number still suck for a horse commanding a six figure stud fee.

105 foals and 476 starts -- 2.2 starts per horse. UNSOUND!

EDIT

err... scratch that last sentence ... I flubbed a number. Should be 4.53 starts per horse. Still not a number I like for 3 and 4yos but at least it's better than 2.2

Either way, his numbers are actually WORSE if you limit them to just the NA runners.

Sam wrote:I'm not saying he's a bad stallion, I'm saying he's a ROTTEN stallion at his current stud fee.

YES! Sam that is the point. We can always trust you to be succinct and to the point.

madelyn wrote::lol: YES! Sam that is the point. We can always trust you to be succinct and to the point.

Thank ya, ma'am. I try

It really is that stud fee that makes FuPeg the failure he is. Those numbers on a $25-$50k stallion wouldn't be bad -- on a $125k stallion ... well, I guess I just don't see the point of throwing away good money.

Never mind that (IMO) unless he throws a triple crown winner in his first crop, there is not a SINGLE HORSE on this planet who should be standing for six figures in their first 3 seasons.

FuPeg hasn't even sired a classic winner, hell, he's only got 2 graded stakes winners. I would be MIGHTY pissed if I paid that kind of stud fee and then watched his numbers tumble like this. Pissed at myself for paying the fee, but pissed nonetheless. Giant's Causeway's fee is inflated as well, but at least he managed to get a classic winner and a handful of graded winners in his initial crop so there's hope for him. For the book of mares FuPeg got in his first two crops, he really should be far better than he is.