Pedigree Query

First a 16 million dollar baby...
... and now little Discreet Cat wins the UAE Derby for big money.
I sense an ad campaign coming on.
Do I sense a stud fee hike? *checks the sky* It's coming... Do you see it, too?

LOL I think we are all clairvoyent...

Make fun If'n ya like. You have yet to see the best from Forestry. Long, short... he is going to be one of the premiere stallions.

I do know that Taylor Made has been very selective regarding the quality, if not the overall number of broodmares getting to Forestry in the last few years. He bred 135 mares last year, but didn't shuttle to the Southern Hemisphere, so it's not such an outlandish number compared with some other sires. I think that he is going to turn out to be a very good, and very versatile sire.

Forestry has 5 crosses of Phalaris, far below the 8-12 crosses we are seeing today.

When Pleasant Colony was bred to ND mares their were many superior runners produced.

The same result took place when BMS that traced to the sire line of Rabelais were bred to Hennesy, Storm Bird, and Storm Cat.

Forestry was a beneficary of this nick. It will be of interest to see which bloodlines that Forestry will produce those superior nicks.

hi StrawberryFelidos...hello Chicago78

StrawberryFelidos wrote:First a 16 million dollar baby...
... and now little Discreet Cat wins the UAE Derby for big money.
I sense an ad campaign coming on.
Do I sense a stud fee hike? *checks the sky* It's coming... Do you see it, too?

Wait a minute please. Forestry stands for $100k...for that price isn't he supposed to have gotten at least a couple of two-turn G1 stakes-winners (let's lower the bar...how about two-turn G1 placers) on the dirt in North America. As for the UAE Derby (won by Discreet Cat) it isn't even a G1. Why your talk of a stud fee boost (from $100k) for his sire?

Unheralded and arguably boring Pleasant Tap did get a $5mil G1-race winner (in David Junior) on the same card...and Pleasant Tap's stud fee is only $10,000.

Forestry is NOT worth $100k (in my book) based on his accomplishments as a racehorse sire. Here's his Top Ten Runners by lifetime earnings (per the Taylor Made website)...you judge for yourself...

Forestry's Top Ten Runners By
Lifetime Earnings
Updated 3/27/2006

Discreet Cat $1,246,500
Smokey Glacken $652,460
Forest Danger $423,000
Diplomat Lady $357,800
Old Forester $312,582
Forest Grove $281,130
Hasslefree $229,499
Teton Forest $222,000
Forestier $195,710
Deputy Storm $183,465

Please explain to me why, All Things Considered, Forestry's worth a $100k stud fee...much less an increase.

Chicago78 wrote:I do know that Taylor Made has been very selective regarding the quality, if not the overall number of broodmares getting to Forestry in the last few years.

hi Chicago78...TM has made an all out effort from day one (not just in the last few years) to get quality mares to Forestry. I tip my hat to them for that...but let's not lose sight of the fact that the real bottom-line is about Forestry's results as a sire NOT Taylor Made's efforts as a promoter. I suggest...take a look at Forestry's lifetime percentage of Stakes-Winners from Named Foals then take a look at his Few Graded Stakes-Winners from Named Foals. All Things Considered, it appears to me that his $100k stud fee is NOT justified.

TM can advertise...and promote all day long, but at the end of the day it's about racehorses. For the most part, his stakes-winning North American runners top performances (thus far) were sprinting or turfing. And thus far (from his three crops to race) seems like his fillies and colts have been silent in the G1s at a mile and beyond...hmmm. I suggest...can't ignore that when evaluating Forestry's worth as a sire.

He might ultimately be fine (and justify his stud fee)...but I am NOT convinced, yet, that he is much more than a nice stallion...that has been offered a great opportunity...but arguably (as a racehorse sire) is NOT living up to the promise of greatness that his stud fee (and management) might suggest.

Chicago78 wrote:I think that he is going to turn out to be a very good, and very versatile sire.

Maybe so...but will he justify his stud fee? Time will tell. He's got a couple of horses that are getting a lot of attention...let's see how that all unfolds.

Best to you.

Respectfully

FOS wrote:Unheralded and arguably boring Pleasant Tap did get a $5mil G1-race winner (in David Junior) on the same card...and Pleasant Tap's stud fee is only $10,000.

I am a huge Forestry fan, but you bring up an excellent point here. Problem the breeding industry faces, and racing in general is the importance put on early speed. 2 year old speed is paramount in the breeding game... but I think Pleasant Tap is a fantastic sire, and a bargain. Much like Broad Brush, who's progeny didn't get kicking till the third year. Early speed affects a sire on the track and as importantly, in the sales ring. Which is also why...

FOS wrote:Forestry is NOT worth $100k (in my book) based on his accomplishments as a racehorse sire. Please explain to me why, All Things Considered, Forestry's worth a $100k stud fee...much less an increase.

He is worth every dime of 100k if your mare throws a correct Forestry baby. Taylor Made likes to say" FORESTRY ON FIRE!" and the truth is, he is "ON FIRE" in the sales ring. Your question, will that translate to "FIRE" on the track is being decided as we speak, and I say it will (yeah, I have a beautiful 2 year-old filly by Forestry, so I am partial!).

A dose of reality: I don't think a fee increase is warranted yet however. I was the guy whosaid at 50k that the price would be considered cheap, and at 75k he is still a huge bargain. 100k is a good fee, it should stand for a while. FORESTRY is not a 200k sire yet... but in 2 years we might be singing a different song.

hi dray33

I appreciate your viewpoints, insights and (as you describe it) your "dose of reality".

It'll be interesting to watch Forestry's career As A Racehorse Sire unfold. Ultimately, he'll define himself.

Respectfully

Dray33--good luck to you on your Forestry filly and I am certainly rooting for you whatever you decide to do with her, hopefully she rings the bell for you---and very loudly.
Your personal interests aside, here are a couple of questions and comments I would like to make about Forestry.
Who is really responsible for his success--his genetics or TM's ability to get him that coveted broodmare band?
If he has the goods what can he do with ordinary mares? What would other stallions do with that same book of mares? Does he improve his mares? or are his offspring's success (both in the ring and on the track) a function of the mares he visits?
He is obviously a commercial success--- congratulations to all those who have invested in him one way or another.
Would you breed to him if you wanted a race horse or a sales ring prospect? If your answer is only the second choice then I believe in the long run (his commercial success notwithstanding) he will not be of much value to the breed.
I think TM has done an outstanding job of marketing and handling his career but I am still laying my chips squarely behind NA. He has the goods and TM is going to find it very difficult to overlook his ability--- even though they are putting most of their chips behind another stallion right now.
I think it will turn out to be very fortuitous for our sport that NA found his way to TM---- when they get behind him watch out. Seeing what they can do with a ho hum stallion like Forestry (IMO) I can't wait for the things to come from a truely potent stallion like NA. Respectfully

Thanks for the kind words bcassidy...

Who is really responsible for his success--his genetics or TM's ability to get him that coveted broodmare band?
Both, i think. But one thing is for certain... Taylor Made is doing a bang up job for him, no doubt. I am very cautious about the whole Storm Cat line... I just think he is a stand out.

If he has the goods what can he do with ordinary mares? What would other stallions do with that same book of mares? Does he improve his mares? or are his offspring's success (both in the ring and on the track) a function of the mares he visits?
Both, I think. Heck, look at A.P. Indy for that matter. He seems to significantly DECREASE the mares potential, yet still sires the big horses, no? As for other stallion with his book, I would think he would do as well or better, IMHO.

He is obviously a commercial success--- congratulations to all those who have invested in him one way or another. Would you breed to him if you wanted a race horse or a sales ring prospect?
I believe in his ability to sire race horses. I put money on it. I've made money on it (luckily). But I think we are only starting to hear from him as a sire. Next year or two he should hit full stride.

I think it will turn out to be very fortuitous for our sport that NA found his way to TM---- when they get behind him watch out. Seeing what they can do with a ho hum stallion like Forestry (IMO) I can't wait for the things to come from a truely potent stallion like NA. Respectfully

Time will tell.

Melhor_Ainda wrote:The UAE Derby IS a G1, no?

No, it's a G2.

LSB wrote:

Melhor_Ainda wrote:The UAE Derby IS a G1, no?

No, it's a G2.

My mistake.. I was thinking of another race

Here's my uneducated take on Forestry. I actually quite liked him when he went to stud. He's good-looking, he's got a nice pedigree and he could run a bit. I've cooled on him a bit now simply because 58% starters and 38% winners from 3yos and up doesn't exactly light my fire and his AEI and CI are way out of whack (but so are a lot of 6 figure stallions). He's gotten 9% stakes horses and that's nice. I guess my major issue is by the looks of his starter percentage, he's maybe not a source of soundness and I had hoped he might buck that trend for his daddy.

In the sales ring his fee is more than justified (even without the Green Monkey), but as a racehorse sire not so much. Just goes to show that good looks and likability will get you far in life... Which reminds of this Kids in the Hall skit...

http://www.kithfan.org/work/transcripts/two/baddoctor.html

Yeah thats Forestry...

Louis Finochio said:
"Forestry has 5 crosses of Phalaris, far below the 8-12 crosses we are seeing today."
"When Pleasant Colony was bred to ND mares their were many superior runners produced."



Forestry in fact has 9 crosses of Phalaris, slightly over 3% of his blood. Forestry could be considered a Bold Ruler horse as he is over 12% BR blood. He has 34 crosses of the 125-yr.-old undefeated St. Simon in 10 generations, or about 4% StS blood.

Pleasant Colony has 25 crosses of St. Simon and only three of Phalaris.

Northern Dancer is from the Phalaris sire line and is 5x5 to him.