Q: about AFleet Alex going to stud
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Q: about AFleet Alex going to stud
I saw the story somewhere that his mates are now in foal. BUt I dont get it, I thought he was in training for a time after the Belmont. And then later that month or next they said he was retired. So his progeny will be late born? I mean if he went to stud in July and they come out what in May? Is this a good strategy for a freshman sire? any thoughts? thx.
Umm. Mares bred in February 2006 could be announced in foal now. I'm pretty certain Afleet Alex was not bred in 2005. We just checked our Feb/Mar breedings (this year) and they are in foal.. I must be missing something in your logic. Horses are no different than any other mammal... mating results in sperm becoming available to a follicle (egg) from an ovary... pregnancy in horses results within the next 48 hours. The gestation period for horses is a bit over eleven months, so if a horse was, in fact bred in July, the foal would come out in June but that is most CERTAINLY NOT what they did with Afleet Alex. With expensive animals like these, nature is not depended on, and indeed some mares never look pregnant until two months before they foal. We ultrasound to determine if there is a fertilized egg implanting.
So Run for the Roses, as fast as you can.....
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summerhorse
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rudydee wrote:Alex is booked to 156 mares. He is currently getting his mares in foal at a 90% rate.
156...like I said in another post, no way you find that many ideal conformations,etc and pedigrees for Afleet Alex. I figure max I'd consider is 50-60 myself. And that's not foals, that's mares bred. For some reason I wanna say Northern Dancer (could totally be wrong cuz it's been awhile since I tallied them up and I'm not sure it's him) but some major major sire had about 42ish or less foals in every crop.
If he doesn't fire, you haven't poured out a bunch of useless horses. A more tightly managed book and a stallion that shows he's got what it takes means demand goes up and eventually price. You don't wear out the stallion with that many covers/risks of the mare getting persnickety/etc. But hey, that's just my lil ol' opinion.
"Time flies like an arrow, fruit flies like a banana"
Heidilady wrote:rudydee wrote:Alex is booked to 156 mares. He is currently getting his mares in foal at a 90% rate.
If he doesn't fire, you haven't poured out a bunch of useless horses. A more tightly managed book and a stallion that shows he's got what it takes means demand goes up and eventually price. You don't wear out the stallion with that many covers/risks of the mare getting persnickety/etc. But hey, that's just my lil ol' opinion.
The industry has changed a great deal in the decades since stallions greats like Northern Dancer were covering 40 mares a year. One of the biggest changes is that TB breeding is now not just the province of the super-rich. Now there's a much broader base of TH owners and come of them actually need to make money.
I know that everyone thinks that the old ways are better. But in the "old days" 99.9% of the population wouldn't have been able to afford to breed and race Thoroughbreds. Now more of us can.
I think it's great when stallion managers restrict their horses' books--though not to 40 mares, which is, in this day an age, an unrealistic number. 100-120 seems about right to me. But I really can't blame them for wanting to make money. TB breeding is no longer a sport, it's a business.
I agree with you LSB. In the old days, if you didn't know the Hancocks or Leslie Combs, you plain weren't getting to a top stallion even if you had a good mare. The selection process could be as much about people as about horses.
This way isn't more glamorous but it is certainly more egalitarian and businesslike. Moreover, my belief is that the bell curve fell the same way between good and bad horses in any crop but back then not as many were sold so you just didn't see it as starkly.
This way isn't more glamorous but it is certainly more egalitarian and businesslike. Moreover, my belief is that the bell curve fell the same way between good and bad horses in any crop but back then not as many were sold so you just didn't see it as starkly.
hi LSB
Probably For Most TB breeding is a business...but I suggest that for some it's a game...maybe not unlike high-stakes poker. For those it might be more of a risk v reward scenario, although I guess such a scenario could still fall into the business column...high-risk business that is.
As for Juddmonte...Darley/Godolphin and others, it sure seems like thoroughbred breeding and racing is still a sport...although arguably they are the exception and not the rule.
Even at the time (and often before) "stallions greats like Northern Dancer were covering 40 mares a year" (your words), standing stallions at stud was (in many instances) a business proposition. Even Northern Dancer was syndicated. That sounds like a business proposition to me, even back-in-the-day.
For what it's worth...I suggest that ever since Leslie Combs II (Spendthrift Farm) syndicated Nashua (the industry's first stallion syndication), the stallion side of the thoroughbred game has changed...significantly.
Best to you.
Respectfully
In many ways...yes.LSB wrote:The industry has changed a great deal in the decades since stallions greats like Northern Dancer were covering 40 mares a year.
LSB wrote:TB breeding is no longer a sport, it's a business.
Probably For Most TB breeding is a business...but I suggest that for some it's a game...maybe not unlike high-stakes poker. For those it might be more of a risk v reward scenario, although I guess such a scenario could still fall into the business column...high-risk business that is.
As for Juddmonte...Darley/Godolphin and others, it sure seems like thoroughbred breeding and racing is still a sport...although arguably they are the exception and not the rule.
Even at the time (and often before) "stallions greats like Northern Dancer were covering 40 mares a year" (your words), standing stallions at stud was (in many instances) a business proposition. Even Northern Dancer was syndicated. That sounds like a business proposition to me, even back-in-the-day.
For what it's worth...I suggest that ever since Leslie Combs II (Spendthrift Farm) syndicated Nashua (the industry's first stallion syndication), the stallion side of the thoroughbred game has changed...significantly.
Best to you.
Respectfully
With all due respect, and being a 'little guy' type rather than a blue blood, I wouldn't feel any obligation to make a product like a racehorse any cheaper or more common to let everybody have a chance as it were. It's Sport of Kings for heaven's sake--a little guy can become mighty, sure, but most people don't do it through horse racing. They get into the sport after they make the money. I don't agree with vetting the person's connections as much if not more than the horse's pedigree and conformation. This sport is by its nature elitist but it's the attitude toward the blue collars that I'd be concerned with fixing, not the fact that they can't get their mits on a Storm Cat. (Actually they can...SC's sons are popping out matings like they were candy so you CAN in fact get a SC son or grandson for chump change after a few years).
If it's 'best to the best and hope for the best' then you cut out the 40-50 "pretty goods" and "okays" from the book. They're all living a lie if they seriously claim they're following that edict with 150 mares. Correct me if I'm wrong but I looked at foal crops awhile back and didn't Matty G do around 50? You can still buy into a horse at a sale or off of the track and come up aces. You might breed a horse that overcomes his pedigree. You might have a pedigree that isn't fashionable but it has what it takes in the genes. It's the dreams of the little guy that support this sport at the moment but once they go to stud if the 'little guy' had any sense, they'd be trying to run a horse's book as if he were Northern Dancer so that down the line if he was that good he'd be a legend in many a pedigree from being managed so well. Otherwise you're still thinking small. I wanna make a mark in the breed and in racing history, not in Fasig Tipton or the Ocala 2yos in training sale. I'd want a female family who'd have descendants that people'd feel honored just to have as part of their broodmare band if they ever got ahold of one. Big dreams but they're the only ones worth having. There are much easier and more sure ways to make a buck and I can go get me a riding pony if it were just about having a horse in my back yard.
If it's 'best to the best and hope for the best' then you cut out the 40-50 "pretty goods" and "okays" from the book. They're all living a lie if they seriously claim they're following that edict with 150 mares. Correct me if I'm wrong but I looked at foal crops awhile back and didn't Matty G do around 50? You can still buy into a horse at a sale or off of the track and come up aces. You might breed a horse that overcomes his pedigree. You might have a pedigree that isn't fashionable but it has what it takes in the genes. It's the dreams of the little guy that support this sport at the moment but once they go to stud if the 'little guy' had any sense, they'd be trying to run a horse's book as if he were Northern Dancer so that down the line if he was that good he'd be a legend in many a pedigree from being managed so well. Otherwise you're still thinking small. I wanna make a mark in the breed and in racing history, not in Fasig Tipton or the Ocala 2yos in training sale. I'd want a female family who'd have descendants that people'd feel honored just to have as part of their broodmare band if they ever got ahold of one. Big dreams but they're the only ones worth having. There are much easier and more sure ways to make a buck and I can go get me a riding pony if it were just about having a horse in my back yard.
"Time flies like an arrow, fruit flies like a banana"
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summerhorse
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tinners way
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An emotional business, not a financial one for the vast majority. The Darleys, Juddmontes, etc. still play it the same way. They have the mares. Forget books sizes, it is still a sport of kings- the "kings" are more populous and are more easily seperated from their money by hype. That is why so many are in for 4-5 years and gone. (What Jess Jackson is doing is trying to cut out some of the thieves) But what this industry still sells is dreams, and those are expensive, regardless of the level you are playing on.
The numbers for the big books are just not holding up, and certainly not improving chances. Is there one stallion that has put up Danzig type numbers with big books? Research Storm Cat, are the % of stakes winners higher or lower now than 7 years ago?
Whether the market has changed or not since syndication, Bill Young could not give away Storm Cat seasons initially, his mares and friends mares built the horse, and he proved himself superior. If Storm Cat were retired today at $100,000 there would be no takers and he would have never made it. So you still have to have access to the best mares, and while the farms are selling stud fees like crazy, they're not selling the mares.
Giants Causeway, FuPeg- the cart is way in front of the horse, and if the numbers don't improve the fees will plummet, but not before Coolmore has fleeced the pockets.
I can't imagine there are enough mares in the world to justify filling the books of 10-15 100k+ year stallions, but it is happening, the question becomes for how long.
The numbers for the big books are just not holding up, and certainly not improving chances. Is there one stallion that has put up Danzig type numbers with big books? Research Storm Cat, are the % of stakes winners higher or lower now than 7 years ago?
Whether the market has changed or not since syndication, Bill Young could not give away Storm Cat seasons initially, his mares and friends mares built the horse, and he proved himself superior. If Storm Cat were retired today at $100,000 there would be no takers and he would have never made it. So you still have to have access to the best mares, and while the farms are selling stud fees like crazy, they're not selling the mares.
Giants Causeway, FuPeg- the cart is way in front of the horse, and if the numbers don't improve the fees will plummet, but not before Coolmore has fleeced the pockets.
I can't imagine there are enough mares in the world to justify filling the books of 10-15 100k+ year stallions, but it is happening, the question becomes for how long.