Pedigree Query

hi guys

In the Thoroughbred Times (issue of April 15)...among the top 30 sires on the General Sire List (page 68 ) there are ONLY two sires with the LOWEST percentage of stakes-winners from foals...they are Louis Quatorze at 3% and Giant's Causeway at 3%...hmmm.

Despite a constant barrage of advertisements, hype and spin...Giant's Causeway seems to be defining himself as quite the mortal thoroughbred racehorse sire. Clearly his percentage of stakes-winners from foals is woeful (especially when considering the all-but-unprecedented and incredible opportunity he received, of not only quality but quantity)...

...and his lack of accomplishment (All Things Considered) as a racehorse sire (arguably easy to recognize, hype and spin aside) seems to be clearer by the day.

Thoughts?

Respectfully

Maybe he should be sent back over here as his good runners have been in Europe. Footstepsinthesand, shamardal, maids Causeway. He'd have to take a pay cut too.

FOS wrote:Despite a constant barrage of advertisements, hype and spin...Giant's Causeway seems to be defining himself as quite the mortal thoroughbred racehorse sire. Clearly his percentage of stakes-winners from foals is woeful (especially when considering the all-but-unprecedented and incredible opportunity he received, of not only quality but quantity)...

Thoughts?

Well since you asked, here are my thoughts.

...yawn....

It's probably been, what...a month...since you started a thread denigrating Coolmore and Giant's Causeway? So I guess it seemed like time again.

Come one, FOS, you've got plenty of interesting things to say. Just play us a new tune, okay?

Last year, i,ve explained, that he will be suited better in europe, and that his fee should be down.
The problem for coolmore is that they have another, which can not be used for sevices in the US.
Rock of Gibraltar

I kind of wondered why Giant's Causeway was here in the first place (despite his close BC loss on dirt). But since a lot of his foals did/could go to Europe anyway I don't really think he'll have much better numbers considering the opportunity he's had and done little with. He should be (IMO) somewhere around $40-50,000 off what he's done so far and that is giving him the benefit of the doubt that he'll improve!!

hi LSB

LSB wrote:

FOS wrote:Despite a constant barrage of advertisements, hype and spin...Giant's Causeway seems to be defining himself as quite the mortal thoroughbred racehorse sire. Clearly his percentage of stakes-winners from foals is woeful (especially when considering the all-but-unprecedented and incredible opportunity he received, of not only quality but quantity)...

Thoughts?

Well since you asked, here are my thoughts.

...yawn....

It's probably been, what...a month...since you started a thread denigrating Coolmore and Giant's Causeway? So I guess it seemed like time again.

Come one, FOS, you've got plenty of interesting things to say. Just play us a new tune, okay?

To highlight the FACT that (per the Thoroughbred Times issue of April 15)...among the top 30 sires on the General Sire List (page 68 ), both Louis Quatorze [who stands for $6,000] and Giant's Causeway [who stands for $300,000] are the ONLY two sires tied for the lowest percentage of stakes-winners from foals, is worthy of note...in my opinion.

The way I see it...the absurdity of Giant's Causeway's stud fee as it relates to his woeful numbers is what it's about.

You apparently disagree...fair enough.

Enjoy your nap...

..and best to you.

Respectfully

Giants Causeway was bred to 212 mares in NA in 2005 and more, 232 or so in 2004.

Unless I saw the contracts for every mare, I doubt everybody paid 300k, even excluding sydicate share owners.

Also, GC may have gotten some quality mares, but no one will convince me that Coolmore screened for 212 quality mares..reminds me of Alydar...IMO, Coolmore will breed GC to anyone who can pay whatever..300k...more/less...a mare with 4 legs and an owner with deep pockets.

I don't think it is an anomoly that the first yr GC was in KY his fee was 75k or so, and I'd venture Coolmore screened THOSE mares very closely
and got alot quality mares vs 2005 w/215 mares and a "big" fee. After GC scored his first year...Coolmore hiked the fee and bred GC en masse.

I don't believe there is anyway all 212 mares bred to GC were quality, and the resulting foals reflect a decline in statistics.

If a stallion breeds 212 mares vs a stallion that breeds 90 carefully selected, quality mares the numbers will skew, IMO.

I don't think GC has a problem but the "chicken factory" is the culprit.

Ah, the FOS distortion continues. Doesnt the fact that a horse with only 2 crops of racing age that is even in the top 30 of the General Sire list show you anything? Doesnt the fact that of his 409 foals of racing age, that 116 of them are 2 year olds that arent even near starting, yet those foals are included in his stakes percentages? Do you think that could possibly distort the figures? Louis Quatorze has 5 crops of racing age, not including the 2 year old crop, and Giants Causeway has 2 crops, not including 2 year olds. How can you possibly compare the two? The fact is, Giants Causeway has 5% stakes winners right now, if you don't include his current 2 year olds, with his first crop turning 4 this year and his second crop turned 3 this year.
When Giant's Causeway has had 3 full crops race thru their 3 year old year then we can make a reasonable judgement.

5% stakes winners and 32% winners from 312 foals (3yos and up) and you can't use the 'most of them have yet to start' refrain. He's got a respectable 68% starters.

All that for $300,000? Sign me up!

You can bemoan the number of mares bred to him and his youth all you want, but his production in no way merits the price he's standing for. His yearlings last year were over $100,000 shy of covering his current fee and that was with Sharmandal and Maid's Causeway still fresh in folks minds. This year I guess he's got the stellar win by disqualification of First Samurai or perhaps they'll play his Blue Grass effort

hi halo

halo wrote:Ah, the FOS distortion continues.

I have distorted NOTHING. I have simply referenced the stats EXACTLY as reported in the Thoroughbred Times (April 15/2006). The stats re: the Thoroughbred Times General Sire List are compiled EXACTLY the same...for EVERY sire. No special dispensation for anyone, including Louis Quatorze and Giant's Causeway.

Yes Giant's Causeway is a young sire, but his crops are HUGE...and he has clearly been afforded an opportunity (not just quantity-wise but also quality-wise etc) arguably like no stallion EVER before, in the history of the breed. As long as he stands for what I believe is an outrageous stud fee coupled with what I might describe as an often in-your-face style of advertising campaign (arguably sometimes implying or attempting to create what I believe is a misleading perception), I will continue to watch him closely, and maybe sometimes share some observations etc.

I expect you will share your observations sometimes also...and I look forward to that.

That said...I believe that you might agree (All Things Considered) that Giant's Causeway is GROSSLY overpriced...

...regardless, he alone will ultimately define his worth as a sire (for better or for worse)...and although advertising, promotion, hype and spin might work (to some extent) in the short term...I suggest that over the long term it will not.

No reason to be upset or angry unless of course you're paying the $300k and you get one of his lightweight foals...which Giant's Causeway can arguably all-too-often get.

Best to you.

Respectfully

Just as a point of reference Giants Causeway gets 215 mares in 2005 as opposes to 88 for Louis Quatorze.

This is somewhat off-topic, but not entirely.

Am I the only one who thinks that Coolmore's massive book size really, really HURTS their young stallions, rather than gives them a "spectacular opportunity?" Out of 200 mares, how many can possibly be the pedigree matches he really needs--and how many are just "filler?"

Here's one:

http://www.keenland.com/sales/Jan01/pdfs/1000.pdf

This mare has a 2yo by Giant's Causeway. Hers is a nice family, but aside from linebreeding to Blushing Groom/Bold Ruler and what looks like her dam being owned by Coolmore, there is nothing there that screams to me "breed this mare to my most elite, valuable stallion prospect."

Here's another:

http://www.keeneland.com/sales/Sep04/pdfs/27.pdf

So help me, I loved watching Free House run, but he's the only foal from his dam that ever did a thing on the track. Beyond Free House, everything else on this page is consistent but minor black-type until you get to the 6th dam. Again, nothing about her says "breed her to my most valuable stallion prospect." Smart Strike? Absolutely. Giant's Causeway? Not so much.

I really think this horse would have been better served with a smaller, very exclusive book (say, 70 mares) and a private treaty fee than an enormous book and enormous fee. What would his stats have been like if he had been bred to no more than 70 mares who met the following criteria: mares with no foals of racing age must be graded/group winners with other significant graded production within 3 generations. Mares with foals of racing age must be graded/group producers, regardless of race record, AND have significant graded/group production within 3 generations. Cut out the chaff, and see if that percent stakes production rises sharply. And yes, I realize this would have excluded the dam of Maid's Causeway.

I agree, it is a shame that greed takes over common sense. The fact is they don't really care if he is a sire for the ages or just for the first few seasons. They've made their buckets of money and if he doesn't do bettre and the fee falls they'll just sell him off to Japan or somewhere.

I think he could have been a superb sire had been given a smaller (100 or so) but very select book chosen carefully and then sent to run where they would seem to be more suited for (Europe).

But I doubt Coolmore is going to change their stripes any time soon!

I really don't think the book size is all of it with him. I think he is unsuited to this market and referring to him as an elite stallion at this point in his admittedly young career is stretching it. He's elite in price only.

Book size brought Giant's Causeway down....and he's still had quality runners. Louis just got a gr. I winner.