Pedigree Query

Who's going? Anyone selling?

I have one selling: Hip 79, a strapping athletic NORTHERN AFLEET colt. Light on pedigree, but he looks to be an exceptional race horse... very excited about him. I am lucky enough to work with Hoby Kight as my trainer/consignor (what a talented group)... if you go, please take a look and report back. Unfortunately, I will be missing the breezes and sale. Bummer.

Good luck to all...

Good luck with him! Keep us posted on how he does!

:21 4/5 is not too shabby!

Thanks, yeah it was a nice solid work. They couldnt get him to stop until the 5/8 pole. He is going to make someone a very nice race horse. Might breeze once more. Up to the boss

Go look at the replay, I found the video interesting. He does a nice lead change right after the turn, and starts to gobble up ground (his front legs are just reachin') and once the caboose kicks in, he's just skipping over the ground. Personally, I loved the breeze and don't need him to go 21 flat. Perfect!

Hip 79 here:
http://www.obssales.com/febpreview/

Dray, I have a question: Are the horse's knees closed yet? I'm just wondering your thoughts on a baby extending himself on knees that aren't yet closed. I realize everyone wants a sub :22 quarter in early February.....

It's a fair question (I remember looking into it when a farm I use told me "we don't do much till the knees close"). Truth be told, I am not sure where they are during the buying/breaking/training process. I can see the problem with starting on young horses too early and getting them to the sale ready to go. There is also the issue of how tightly do you crank them up before the sale? What I did when I decided to be involved in this business of pinhooking yearlings into 2 year-olds, I glued myself as tightly as possible to the most talented trainer I could find. What I wanted was someone who can pick out the young, precocious horses, train them to perform well... not only at the sale, but beyond. I was particularly concerned about the "mental aftermath". I have seen (bought) too many horses that not only could benefit, but needed extensive time off after the sales. To be convinced of that takes a track record of success... I found that with Hoby. That's much of what I know Rokeby... but I will ask about the knees specifically.

Thank you, Dray. Please don't misunderstand me - I'm sure Hoby gives his stock the highest quality of care.

"The way of the world" is to impress buyers with quarterhorse workouts...and some horses can stand it this early better than others. Brother Derek worked a quarter in :20 4/5 at Barretts and stayed in training for a full 15 months (until after the Preakness). The Green Monkey (outside influence induced or not) worked 1/8th in :9 4/5 and never recovered.

There is a real "catch 22" in pinhooking - you need to have the horse show well, but the horse just might not be mentally and/or physically capable of working :22 this early in the year. I think you're very smart targeting the precocious types for your pinhooking ventures, but here's a question I'd like to ask (if I may?):

Suppose you saw a really nice Dynaformer yearling being sold for a fraction of what you think it's worth. Now, Dynaformers, by and large, do not develop early. If your (let's assume) SOLE reason for looking at yearlings is to assess pinhooking potential, what would you do in this case? You think the horse is clearly undervalued, but you know that it's not the type that will work well early in the year at the sales. Would you take a pass (assuming you wouldn't want him to race, just to sell), or would you purchase it and later "sales train" the horse and hope for the best?

Brother Dereck never reached his potential, nor did River's Prayer, etc.

But, that does not mean that horses can't breeze at 2. People like Hoby get them going, but for the most part keep them this side of exploding. He does a great job.

Some others wind them up, turn them loose, and then someone has to throw them away.

Caution is the word. Time is secondary to movement. People are starting to catch on to that. And that is good.

Boy, watching some of those videos is disturbing. A baby shouldn't be getting whacked like that just for speed.

Hey Dray, I thought that was a nice workout.

Is he going to breeze again? (I will guess no)

Good luck in the ring!

Anybody watch 45?

Rokeby Forever wrote:Suppose you saw a really nice Dynaformer yearling being sold for a fraction of what you think it's worth. Now, Dynaformers, by and large, do not develop early. If your (let's assume) SOLE reason for looking at yearlings is to assess pinhooking potential, what would you do in this case? You think the horse is clearly undervalued, but you know that it's not the type that will work well early in the year at the sales. Would you take a pass (assuming you wouldn't want him to race, just to sell), or would you purchase it and later "sales train" the horse and hope for the best?

I am taking that "SOLE reason for looking at yearlings is to assess pinhooking potential" as the gospel, so I would pass. Truth is however that I like to buy to race also (so in reality I would buy him and send turn him out in Florida for a long while).

A tougher question for me is this: You buy a nice colt for 50k, and after getting him ready for the sale he breezes well (not the best) but all indications are he is a seriously nice colt. But the market doesnt see it, he also can benefit from some development time beyond the sale. The bidding is stalled at 40k. What do you do?

As for another breeze, I leave that to Hoby...

Ill-bred wrote:Anybody watch 45?

Those Yes It's True's are certainly precocious types.

Rokeby Forever wrote:"The way of the world" is to impress buyers with quarterhorse workouts...and some horses can stand it this early better than others. Brother Derek worked a quarter in :20 4/5 at Barretts and stayed in training for a full 15 months (until after the Preakness). The Green Monkey (outside influence induced or not) worked 1/8th in :9 4/5 and never recovered.

There is a real "catch 22" in pinhooking - you need to have the horse show well, but the horse just might not be mentally and/or physically capable of working :22 this early in the year. I think you're very smart targeting the precocious types for your pinhooking ventures, but here's a question I'd like to ask (if I may?):

Suppose you saw a really nice Dynaformer yearling being sold for a fraction of what you think it's worth. Now, Dynaformers, by and large, do not develop early. If your (let's assume) SOLE reason for looking at yearlings is to assess pinhooking potential, what would you do in this case? You think the horse is clearly undervalued, but you know that it's not the type that will work well early in the year at the sales. Would you take a pass (assuming you wouldn't want him to race, just to sell), or would you purchase it and later "sales train" the horse and hope for the best?

By the way Rokeby... I think you have hit on an aspect of buying that is critical for todays market. I have altered the way i buy over the past 3 years (am still learning and trying to apply what I learn every day... got a long way to go )...

Basically, I only buy yearlings to pinhook. I no longer buy them to race, I feel too much can happen before they are "race-ready" and I cannot afford to take that chance. Contradiction: If ever I bought at a yearling sale to race, it would be to get my hands on a well bred filly, a family that I couldn't get into any other way.

As for buying, the two-year old sales are becoming something of an opportunity. Example, the OBS sale. Usually less pedigree than the FT Calder sale, but nice horses. In todays world, you are right... over 22.0 or 11.0 and you're all but ignored. People want speed... and some horses aren't ready (as the pedigree would suggest) to go 1/4 in lights-out speed. But 6 months from now, they might be monsters. In buying, I look for those opportunities, the overlooked (I can afford the bullet ones anyway). Same thing at Calder... the fastest horses are just fought over. Go down the food chain and find your mark. I am a seller too, so I run into the whole "that's too nice of a horse to let go at that price" issue... What a business .