Adena Springs: Impressive 2 year old sales stats

[dray33]

This is some incredible statistics. Its only one sale for 3 years, but the data is incredible:

http://adenaracingventure.com/About.aspx?id=5

Amazing, no?

[Maven]

Yes. I always applauded their sale... they never push their two year olds and they breed a lot of stamina and turf into their pedigrees. The only beef with them I have is they tend to put very high reserves on the best-bred fillies. Cant blame them but it takes away what I look for.

[Rokeby Forever]

Adena also has a way of overvaluing their new stallions. Ghostzapper went from $200K to $150K, Touch Gold went from $50K to $30K, Golden Missile went from $35,000 to $10,000, and Giacomo's fee of $12,500 is ridiculous - he went 3 for 16 and beat Preachininthebar before he was retired - he should be standing for around Grindstone's fee.

El Prado is a world class sire, but as a "breed to race" sire - his foals have never sold well - why does he stand for $125,000 when his average runner earns $102,000 and his median runner earns $35,000? There's no doubt that an El Prado foal can get you to the Breeders Cup, but that's a ton of money for a 50/50 chance of getting one of his runners that earns over $35,000.

[Monmouth Matt]

Dray....Funny the Adena sale came up again. Last night, I was posting the prices into my catalog and was again impressed with how much horse a buyer could get for the $. If you buy to race (me) and prefer routers to sprinters, then this appears to be an outstanding sale to attend. I like the fact that Stronach has brought them along slowly and left the buyer with plenty of work to do....neither the body nor the mind has been wound up tight yet!!
I know some people knock Stronach, but he seems to be handling this sale the right way.

[Sysonby]

Adena also has a way of overvaluing their new stallions. Ghostzapper went from $200K to $150K, Touch Gold went from $50K to $30K, Golden Missile went from $35,000 to $10,000, and Giacomo's fee of $12,500 is ridiculous - he went 3 for 16 and beat Preachininthebar before he was retired - he should be standing for around Grindstone's fee.

El Prado is a world class sire, but as a "breed to race" sire - his foals have never sold well - why does he stand for $125,000 when his average runner earns $102,000 and his median runner earns $35,000? There's no doubt that an El Prado foal can get you to the Breeders Cup, but that's a ton of money for a 50/50 chance of getting one of his runners that earns over $35,000.

You forgot about Awesome Again. The worst sales stats among proven stallions that I can think of. Last year, 20 sold as yearlings and 6 for under $10,000. Ouch!

[Rokeby Forever]

Hi Sysonby,

I did fail to mention Awesome again...I apologize.

Interestingly enough, the Red Bullets have sold well (against the stud fee), but his stud fee has also been slashed to $15,000 this year because I don't think buyers consider him a durable "breed to race" type sire, and he has only one stake winner so far, so he's not exactly an "early runner" type sire, either. He's still young, but he's going to need better production out of his foals to sustain even a $15,000 fee.

[kimberley mine]

The sales stats are indeed impressive. The average sale price is on the order of $30,000 and the average earnings is on the order of 3x the price.

Did any of you notice that the Adena Racing Venture is also a stallion developing venture? If any of the colts do particularly well at the races, the shareholder in the racing venue is an automatic partner in any stallion syndicates that develop from it. I suspect the prime candidates for that are the half-brothers to Ghostzapper/City Zip and Awesome Again/Macho Uno.

Adena is rather aggressive with the pricing of their stallions. Red Bullet at $30,000 in Florida is a prime example. The next most expensive stallion in Florida at the time was Montbrook at $20,000. No way was Red Bullet in the same league as Montbrook, hence the fee being halved.

[Rokeby Forever]

Alphabet Soup is another that's had his fee cut from $25,000 to $10,000 in 2007. He started out like a house on fire with his first crop or two, but he can still sire a pretty good, durable horse. I think he offers a value at $10,000.

I don't get it with Adena...they overprice all their stallions at the start, but El Prado originally stood for something like $7,500.

Any opinions of Congaree at $15,000? He's a horse I really liked...one of the best milers of this generation and even Bob Baffert couldn't break him down. I think all things being equal, I'd sooner go to Congaree at $15,000 than Giacomo at $12,500.

[kimberley mine]

Roke, Alphabet Soup started out with a fee of $10,000 or so (may have been less, don't know for sure). After Our New Recruit won the Golden Shaheen in Dubai, his fee jumped up to a level the market would not bear. He is back down to $15,000. For the kind of horse he sires, 10-15k is entirely reasonable and along the lines of perinneal favourites Sky Classic and Devil His Due.

Congaree as a stallion prospect has two big knocks against him--his sire and his dam. All kidding aside, Arazi was a HUGE flop, and the only other sire of note in the US with Mari's Book as a broodmare sire is the even bigger flop Behrens. (As an unrelated aside, note the pedigree similarities between the dams of both Behrens and Congaree!) The highest quality in his female line is several generations back with Long Look and Jungle Cove.

[Rokeby Forever]

Hi Kimberley (with 2 e's),

Behrens is a running joke that I have with another poster here. His offspring give new meaning to the term, "Mule Train." LOL!

Congaree might have a link to Behrens, but I think Pleasantly Perfect has more of one...and at an initial $40,000 fee, YIKES! I sooner fear the Pleasant Colony sire line curse than the Mari's Book connection.

Arazi has found a home in Japan as a sire. I don't quite know what was expected of him because he's a really crooked horse, which led to his pre-Derby problems and subsequent owner mismanagement. It's a shame...his BC Juvie move still makes my jaw drop when I watch it - Bertrando was no powderpuff and Arazi went by him so fast, I think Bertrando caught a cold from the breeze. LOL!

[kimberley mine]

Hi Kimberley (with 2 e's)

Rokeby, you remembered!!!

If Pleasantly Perfect is going to succeed, he's at the right farm to do so. Pleasant Tap has really caught fire over the last couple of years and I suspect it is because a goodly number of the REALLY nice mares destined for Pleasant Colony went to Pleasant Tap when his sire died. Pleasantly Perfect has some good speed on his dam side (first dam and her half-sister both won a French Gr-1 2yo sprint), so playing up to that speed and precocity may be his salvation. It is worth noting that Pleasantly Perfect's dam is bred on the same cross as the dam of Premium Tap (minus one remove). Based on Storm Cat's success with Pleasant Colony and Affirmed, I think a reverse cross of that mating (with a medium-sized mare) would be interesting to see.

Back to the Adena racing venture, I find myself quite intrigued. It's a slick marketing tool, a chance at some truly high-class bloodstock, a HUGE speculative stud prospect gamble, and the goods to be a really fun racing stable all rolled into one. Their 2006 package makes me wonder if they are trying to race/breed the heir apparent to El Prado (with colts out of Perfect Sting, Relaxing Rythym, and a half to Free House). This year's package has more variety.

[Rokeby Forever]

Hi Kimberely, (still with 2 e's!)

All good points! And, yes, the Adena package is everything you say.

Pleasant Tap, unlike most Pleasant Colony sons, had tremendous versatility during his career, which I think must have appealed to breeders. Plus, I think his initial fee was "only" $10,000.

I wonder where North Light fits into the Adena equation. He's another that had his fee slashed from $50,000 to $30,000 this year, and contrary to Adena "soundness" in their sires, this horse raced only 7 times over three seasons - I believe a hip injury was the reason for his retirement. He's not bred at all for the American market, and even $30,000 is a huge fee when a new Danzig stallion like War Front stands for "only" $15,000 and is much more suited to the American market. El Prado worked his way up from $7,500...I don't know why North Light was started so high. Maybe Adena is trying to tap into the Euro buyers...any thoughts?

[kimberley mine]

Frank Stronach is breeding up his own sirelines according to his own preference...even though they are not necessarily the commercial darlings of the world. He has two Holy Bulls, two Sadlers Wells, two Cozzenes (since they retained an interest in Running Stag), a Wild Again, an Arazi, a Danehill, and a Sunday Silence on top of the more typical commercial Mr P, AP Indy, and Deputy Minister. All they need are a Marscay and a Zabeel to round out the mix (actually, that'd be kind of cool).

The only other commercial Kentucky farm I can think of with a similar variety of bloodstock was Gainesway about 4 years ago with Wolf Power, Lear Fan, Broad Brush, Mt Livermore, Cozzene, K One King and Subordination. Now they have Cozzene and Orientate, one Pulpit, and a whole bunch of Mr P sons and grandsons.

I think that North Light was a big gamble on their part. Neither his breeding nor his racing aptitude suit this market, and to be quite honest he doesn't really suit the European market either. With the exception of Monsun and Galileo, the commercial stallions in Europe HAVE to have speed as well. (Why else would the similarly credentialed and somewhat similarly bred Leroidesanimaux be a preferred stallion prospect?) My guess is they wanted a highly credentialed and (exquisitely) well-bred Danehill, which they got. They wanted a champion, which they got. Only time will tell if he is be the stallion they wanted. If the polytrack experiment continues and the Danehill tribe takes to synthetic surfaces, his future looks rather brighter than it does right now.

And speaking of synthetic surfaces, how about Silent Name in the Commonwealth BC? He's now a Gr-2 winner on both turf and synthetics. My crystal ball says he'll show up at Del Mar this summer and Hollywood this fall....

[Rokeby Forever]

Hi Kimberley (again with 2 e's),

No doubt that Silent Name will appear in California this summer!

The Halo sire line of Hail To Reason has never been popular in this country (until More Than Ready, perhaps), but I think Silent Name has a chance to become successful, maybe because so many breeders wonder, "What if Sunday Silence had stayed in Kentucky?" Many will say that he was suited to the Japanese breeding landscape (sour grapes, methinks), but many will also say that's BS!

What could make him really attractive in this market compared to other Sunday Silence sires is (A) his sprint ability not just on turf, but on Polytrack, as well, (as you suggest), and (B) he's from the family of Sweet Revenge, whom many still remember as a top notch Woody Stephens filly during his era of training one top filly after another. In sum, he's not bred for 1 1/2 mile on the turf, unlike several Sunday Silence sires that are out of "just" Japanese stakes winners and Euro turfers (like a Deep Impact or Heart's Cry, for example).

Polytrack does change the equation, doesn't it? Too bad for Coolmore that Dylan Thomas got stuck trying Belmont dirt and not the new stuff. LOL!

[Maven]

While I agree that Stronach has been searching for a top-class Danehill son, im not sure this colt was the right target. Although there's some good class under his dam, you can find similarly credentialed Danehill's with a better, if not more American dam-line.

This horse's pedigree is just screaming for more Simons Shoes blood. I'd send him anything and everything with Sadler's Wells, Nureyev, St. Jovite, Apalachee, Stormy Atlantic, etc. blood.

Never forget Stronach has one of the biggest broodmare bands in the world. His stallions dont require as much outside support as most operations.