Selling a racehorse is easier if the horse is already running. One of the problems that may arise in the future is if there are SO MANY people raising babies just to sell and so many FEWER people willing to pay the training and have the fun of winning, the business will implode like a house of cards.
My case in point. I have six yearlings in the barn from '06. I have started them, and have training spots for two, with at least one more sold privately into a racing home with a modest profit. The two remaining colts are smaller and not so developed and will be turned out for the winter. I have five weanlings or soon-to-be weaned (the June 3rd filly isn't quite ready). One weanling is being traded out, one is sold to a gal who will train her, again for a modest profit. I am sending just the one filly to a sale this year, the Street Cry x Express to Boston, and believe me if I'd had a better year I would have bought Darley out of the foal share and raced her.
The sales used to be dumping grounds for over-production and culls and dispersals. They have evolved into their own business/industry and seem to get further away every year from having anything much to do with racehorses.
So maybe it would be a good idea for more breeders to save some of that high powered money they would have spent sending a modest mare to a high powered SALES stallion, send her to a much more modestly priced RACEHORSE stallion, and spend some of the rest of that stud fee on training the baby and winning races. Since they probably won't get the stud fee back at the sales anyhow....
Sales Numbers
Moderators: Roguelet, WaveMaster, madelyn
Sales Numbers
So Run for the Roses, as fast as you can.....
Although I hear what you're saying, I think the real problem is the mare you start out with.
If you're trying to breed mediocre or lesser page/physical mares, you're in a steep, uphill battle.
In my opinion, instead of cutting on stallion fees and putting the training in yourself, a person should really look at the quality of broodmare they have and invest the money in upgrading it... even if it means skipping a year in the breeding shed.
10 mediocre mares are going to cost just as much in two years with foaling, boarding, vet, etc. as 1 or 2 strong mares being bred to better, more expensive and commercial stallions.
Less is more when you're dealing with quality.
If you're trying to breed mediocre or lesser page/physical mares, you're in a steep, uphill battle.
In my opinion, instead of cutting on stallion fees and putting the training in yourself, a person should really look at the quality of broodmare they have and invest the money in upgrading it... even if it means skipping a year in the breeding shed.
10 mediocre mares are going to cost just as much in two years with foaling, boarding, vet, etc. as 1 or 2 strong mares being bred to better, more expensive and commercial stallions.
Less is more when you're dealing with quality.
Don't be so humble - you are not that great.
Yes, Maven, I agree. However, there seem to be a lot of mare owners who do not really quantify the quality of the mare they are sending. The stallion farms will take their money, for the most part, if the mare is just a registered TB mare. Hiring an advisor is a very good move, unless the advisor is somehow on the payroll of the stallion farm also, and profits, or is clear up front and is brutally honest. A lot of mare owners just don't want to hear that "Bessie" isn't really good enough to spend $10K breeding. Also, unfortunately, it seems a great proportion of these economically ill-suited matings are done as "breed to sell" and then the mare owner is left wounded and bleeding. For the commercial market, I will reiterate, the rule of thumb is you send a mare to a stallion that stands for 1/4 to 1/3 of the MARE's value. Sending a $5K mare to a $25K stallion is suicide, economically speaking. In my mind, KEESEP really hit the point home with so MANY of the dams with so much blacktype as to make the mare owner sit back and really re-evaluate his or her herd.
There was a mare in the Mating Advice thread that I felt was not worth the "under $100K" fee the owner was targeting, and the goal was breed to sell. Fortunately, I didn't need my flamesuit after I expressed the opinion. There are a LOT of pretty good breed to race stallions in the $10K and under category.
There was a mare in the Mating Advice thread that I felt was not worth the "under $100K" fee the owner was targeting, and the goal was breed to sell. Fortunately, I didn't need my flamesuit after I expressed the opinion. There are a LOT of pretty good breed to race stallions in the $10K and under category.
So Run for the Roses, as fast as you can.....
I agree with a lot of what Madelyn is saying. People who breed horses don't seem to have any idea what people who buy horses are looking for or what their goals are. Buyers don't care if you have crosses of X stallion 6 generations back, they just dont care. They care if there is a nice attractive correct athletic horse in front of them that looks like he'll get back their investment. Just because you think your yearling is big and pretty, it doesnt mean thats what buyers are looking for. Sellers need to learn what buyers want. And sellers also need to understand that it will cost $20,000 to get that yearling to the races, or nearly that much to get one to a 2 year old sale. If you don't want to invest that kind of money to get your yearling to the races or a sale, why would anyone else want to? Theres far fewer end users now than there used to, and we're still producing 35,000 foals a year. If you're not breeding at the top, the odds of making any money selling yearlings is slim. And Maven is right too...invest in better mares. I just shake my head when reading over on the other forums here some of the mares that people are looking to breed. All they seem to care about is what crosses back in their pedigrees should they be looking at, instead of the fact their mare couldnt run a step, the granddam couldnt run a step, and the stallion they are looking at breeding her to is unraced. And then they'll wonder why they cant give away the foal.
The numbers
TTimes does a great yearly purse review. Here are some selected data points from the 2005 review with my comments with regards to the above conversation...
Highlights of 2005
Nominal median earnings per runner-measured in current dollars-increased 4.4%, to an all-time record $6,135;
A freakin' all-time record of $6315! Half of all runners! It doesn't even count those that don't start but go into training. Why would you want to be in the horse biz again???? Read on!
A total of 5,665 runners-7.8% of all starters-failed to earn any part of a purse;
One in thirteen runners doesn't even earn a penny....
More than half of all starters-52.9%-failed to win a race;
No wonder there are so many maiden races! More than half of all horses qualify for this condition.
Horses that were able to win at least one race earned an average of $29,740;
And here's the rub... If you can own one of the 50% that were able to win a race (those aren't the worst odds in the world) you have a chance of it eaking out paying for itsself. (Note that this is average though, so all the 1 million dollar earners are pulling up that number)
horses that failed to win a race earned an average of $3,475;
So if it can't win you've got virtually no chance of breaking even.
Horses that won a stakes race earned an average of $145,051;
I don't know what the median stakes winners earnings are, but I suppose this is the real reason people are in the horse biz. The home run... It is conceivable to own a horse that makes $100K in a year. And if you aren't breeding these, you aren't improving the catalogue pages of your herd
Horses that were able to win at least one race collectively earned 88.4% of all purse money;
17.3% of all runners earned more than $25,000 and collectively won
67.1% of all purse money;
Are you part of that 17.3%? Will that yearling in the ring be part of the 17.3%?
The numbers are stacked against us... It is tough to make money with purses. Almost everyone makes money from deep pocketed owners in some way or another. And an owner isn't going to spend money unless he's visiting the winners circle. (Even then he might not be making money)
I like the ideas expressed above, but if you are breeding to train then race or sell, you still need to be good at what you do (and cull religiously)....
You need to sell potential for owners to be standing in the winners circle at any level of racing. If you are disappointed in your ability to sell a potential owner on this dream in the yearling sales ring, what makes one think it'll be better in the tough grind of selling them when they are in training. After all, more often than not , you won't be showing the potential to win, but rather that there is clearly no potential at all. As Madelyn, points out, if you really are breeding winners, and the commercial market just can't see it yet, this is a good "put your money where your mouth is" way to go.
If you are good at what you do (breeding winners and blacktype earners), you'll have no problem.
If you dabble and pretend you know what you are doing but actually don't , sell at the sale for a loss, hope for some breeders awards, move on and don't complain, because as an owner of that yearling and broodmare, the industry has just given you the masterful illusion of thinking you can put your hands in a deep pocket to grab the cash, when meanwhile they'vehad their hand in your pocket the whole time...
Great subject
KH
Highlights of 2005
Nominal median earnings per runner-measured in current dollars-increased 4.4%, to an all-time record $6,135;
A freakin' all-time record of $6315! Half of all runners! It doesn't even count those that don't start but go into training. Why would you want to be in the horse biz again???? Read on!
A total of 5,665 runners-7.8% of all starters-failed to earn any part of a purse;
One in thirteen runners doesn't even earn a penny....
More than half of all starters-52.9%-failed to win a race;
No wonder there are so many maiden races! More than half of all horses qualify for this condition.
Horses that were able to win at least one race earned an average of $29,740;
And here's the rub... If you can own one of the 50% that were able to win a race (those aren't the worst odds in the world) you have a chance of it eaking out paying for itsself. (Note that this is average though, so all the 1 million dollar earners are pulling up that number)
horses that failed to win a race earned an average of $3,475;
So if it can't win you've got virtually no chance of breaking even.
Horses that won a stakes race earned an average of $145,051;
I don't know what the median stakes winners earnings are, but I suppose this is the real reason people are in the horse biz. The home run... It is conceivable to own a horse that makes $100K in a year. And if you aren't breeding these, you aren't improving the catalogue pages of your herd
Horses that were able to win at least one race collectively earned 88.4% of all purse money;
17.3% of all runners earned more than $25,000 and collectively won
67.1% of all purse money;
Are you part of that 17.3%? Will that yearling in the ring be part of the 17.3%?
The numbers are stacked against us... It is tough to make money with purses. Almost everyone makes money from deep pocketed owners in some way or another. And an owner isn't going to spend money unless he's visiting the winners circle. (Even then he might not be making money)
I like the ideas expressed above, but if you are breeding to train then race or sell, you still need to be good at what you do (and cull religiously)....
You need to sell potential for owners to be standing in the winners circle at any level of racing. If you are disappointed in your ability to sell a potential owner on this dream in the yearling sales ring, what makes one think it'll be better in the tough grind of selling them when they are in training. After all, more often than not , you won't be showing the potential to win, but rather that there is clearly no potential at all. As Madelyn, points out, if you really are breeding winners, and the commercial market just can't see it yet, this is a good "put your money where your mouth is" way to go.
If you are good at what you do (breeding winners and blacktype earners), you'll have no problem.
If you dabble and pretend you know what you are doing but actually don't , sell at the sale for a loss, hope for some breeders awards, move on and don't complain, because as an owner of that yearling and broodmare, the industry has just given you the masterful illusion of thinking you can put your hands in a deep pocket to grab the cash, when meanwhile they'vehad their hand in your pocket the whole time...
Great subject
KH
Last edited by Gallop58 on Wed Oct 03, 2007 12:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
halo wrote:I agree with a lot of what Madelyn is saying. People who breed horses don't seem to have any idea what people who buy horses are looking for or what their goals are. Buyers don't care if you have crosses of X stallion 6 generations back, they just dont care. They care if there is a nice attractive correct athletic horse in front of them that looks like he'll get back their investment. Just because you think your yearling is big and pretty, it doesnt mean thats what buyers are looking for. Sellers need to learn what buyers want. And sellers also need to understand that it will cost $20,000 to get that yearling to the races, or nearly that much to get one to a 2 year old sale. If you don't want to invest that kind of money to get your yearling to the races or a sale, why would anyone else want to? Theres far fewer end users now than there used to, and we're still producing 35,000 foals a year. If you're not breeding at the top, the odds of making any money selling yearlings is slim. And Maven is right too...invest in better mares. I just shake my head when reading over on the other forums here some of the mares that people are looking to breed. All they seem to care about is what crosses back in their pedigrees should they be looking at, instead of the fact their mare couldnt run a step, the granddam couldnt run a step, and the stallion they are looking at breeding her to is unraced. And then they'll wonder why they cant give away the foal.
Very well said, halo.
I think this sentence is hugely important: "If you don't want to invest that kind of money to get your yearling to the races or a sale, why would anyone else want to?"
I'm shocked at the number of people who label themselves commercial breeders and say they're only breeding to sell because they can't afford to race. Generally speaking, if you can't afford to get a horse to the racetrack, you can't afford mares that are commercial enough for the market. And if you can't support the foals you're producing, why should anyone else pay you for the priviledge of doing the same? From a buyer's point of view, it just doesn't make sense.
Of course this is a business built on dreams and everyone seems to believe that they'll get the Big Horse that makes them rich. But in the meantime, there are just too many breeders flooding the sales with an inferior product that doesn't do anyone, including themselves, any favors.
Bottom line, if you're only breeding to sell, for God's sake, get a mare with good blacktype family close up. If you can't afford to do that, you can't afford to be a commercial breeder.
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BridledObsession
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LB wrote:Bottom line, if you're only breeding to sell, for God's sake, get a mare with good blacktype family close up. If you can't afford to do that, you can't afford to be a commercial breeder.
A very valid point. Somehow, I doubt there's any commercial breeders reading this right now who actually will follow your advice, because they're all "experts", but you can always try
.
There seems to be alot of bitterness and anger pointed towards these people though.....I'm wondering why? Aren't they only hurting themselves when they don't make a profit?
BridledObsession wrote:LB wrote:Bottom line, if you're only breeding to sell, for God's sake, get a mare with good blacktype family close up. If you can't afford to do that, you can't afford to be a commercial breeder.
A very valid point. Somehow, I doubt there's any commercial breeders reading this right now who actually will follow your advice, because they're all "experts", but you can always try
There seems to be alot of bitterness and anger pointed towards these people though.....I'm wondering why? Aren't they only hurting themselves when they don't make a profit?
No anger on my part, but certainly a lack of comprehension. That has to be a hard way, and a heartbreaking way, to lose money. And what then happens to those unsold yearlings that no one wants? I would argue that often times, they get hurt by the process just as much or more than their breeders do.
It drives me crazy to see three-in-one ads that offer a mediocre mare, the foal at her side by a stallion I've never heard of, and the full sibling the mare is carrying. If the owner didn't want the first foal, why did he breed the second? And why should someone else be expected to purchase his mistakes? Where do all these unwanted horses end up?
The current TB market is very specific in what it wants. Breeders with low-end mares can argue all they want that buyers are looking for the wrong things but, frankly, the buyers don't care. And they're the ones who control the spending.
Excellent post, LB.
And let me be the first to say that you don't need a ton of money to get nice mares!!! I picked up two for less than 1k from an OBS sale. And you know what? They have great conformation, they have amazing pedigrees, and they have blacktype under themselves!!!
I bought them to "play" with but they're 10 times better than most the mares and foals I see in the sales and in private sales. Honestly, it just blows my mind.
If you take the TIME and the RESEARCH to go through EVERY sale... you can upgrade your breeding operation without spending a lot of money. It just requires knowledge and PATIENCE!!!
And let me be the first to say that you don't need a ton of money to get nice mares!!! I picked up two for less than 1k from an OBS sale. And you know what? They have great conformation, they have amazing pedigrees, and they have blacktype under themselves!!!
I bought them to "play" with but they're 10 times better than most the mares and foals I see in the sales and in private sales. Honestly, it just blows my mind.
If you take the TIME and the RESEARCH to go through EVERY sale... you can upgrade your breeding operation without spending a lot of money. It just requires knowledge and PATIENCE!!!
Don't be so humble - you are not that great.
Maven wrote:If you take the TIME and the RESEARCH to go through EVERY sale... you can upgrade your breeding operation without spending a lot of money. It just requires knowledge and PATIENCE!!!
AND, from Madelyn: Selling a racehorse is easier if the horse is already running. One of the problems that may arise in the future is if there are SO MANY people raising babies just to sell and so many FEWER people willing to pay the training and have the fun of winning, the business will implode like a house of cards.
All true. Good posts. Getting the foal on the ground is the easy part. And only the beginning of a much longer trip, to which the owner/breeder must commit, for the sake of the foal, as well as the breeder's own sake.
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yukidragon
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- Location: Oregon
Good thread.
I see it like this.
America is not making anything but a war machine currently.
We are growing at a whopping 1 percent.
China is growing at 12 percent.
Here in America the extra cash poor people have go's in the fuel tanks of their autos.
Food pricing are rising as I type.
The view I see is very rich an the poor.
Middle class is going down the tubes.
What happens to the middle classes money the rich get it.
Less an less people with money to burn in every industry not just Horses.
Means less people at sales an at tracks.
Washington State alone had 113 bank robberies so far this year.
Thats just one State.
I think the market will see a flood of cheap horses as feed prices rise over the next few years,as middle class people get closer to the poor section of town.
For me being the poor I have a farm full of pets that at the moment worth nothing more companionship.
So for me reading about someone paying 50k for a stud fee in 08 means either they are very rich planning on selling to the very rich or their soon to be very poor.
I see it like this.
America is not making anything but a war machine currently.
We are growing at a whopping 1 percent.
China is growing at 12 percent.
Here in America the extra cash poor people have go's in the fuel tanks of their autos.
Food pricing are rising as I type.
The view I see is very rich an the poor.
Middle class is going down the tubes.
What happens to the middle classes money the rich get it.
Less an less people with money to burn in every industry not just Horses.
Means less people at sales an at tracks.
Washington State alone had 113 bank robberies so far this year.
Thats just one State.
I think the market will see a flood of cheap horses as feed prices rise over the next few years,as middle class people get closer to the poor section of town.
For me being the poor I have a farm full of pets that at the moment worth nothing more companionship.
So for me reading about someone paying 50k for a stud fee in 08 means either they are very rich planning on selling to the very rich or their soon to be very poor.
Maven wrote:...And let me be the first to say that you don't need a ton of money to get nice mares!!! I picked up two for less than 1k from an OBS sale. And you know what? They have great conformation, they have amazing pedigrees, and they have blacktype under themselves!!! ...
Also completely true. I picked up that one at Keeneland last winter, half sister to Devil His Due, for $1K.
It costs the same to feed a cheap mare as it does a good one.. I don't mean cheap in the way of acquisition price but one with not much pedigree or family to her.
So Run for the Roses, as fast as you can.....
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BridledObsession
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I'd like to think that most people on this forum would agree with your points. The problem remains -- the people who most need this advice are not reading.
It is sad that there are so very few people who are making a real commitment to their horses over the long term. It brings to mind two farms I've been on recently.........just average mare upon average mare with average babies at their sides. They will grow up to be average horses who will be lucky to find a good home and have a chance at the kind of life every horse deserves.
It is sad that there are so very few people who are making a real commitment to their horses over the long term. It brings to mind two farms I've been on recently.........just average mare upon average mare with average babies at their sides. They will grow up to be average horses who will be lucky to find a good home and have a chance at the kind of life every horse deserves.
But what if you have a nice mare with black type right under her and you breed to a nice somewhat commercial stallion but you did your research and you've bred to produce a racehorse too. But your yearling is avg size, not small, will grow to be about 16. 1" and the bid you get doesn't cover the stud fee. Now is that breeder a bad person? They did everything right, yet something went wrong, you're the victim of "fashion". Is that fair?
Most of these people will either sell privately or race.
What about them?
winds
Most of these people will either sell privately or race.
What about them?
winds
The whole game is a risk... as is life.
If you have a quality mare and you breed to a quality stallion who matches your mare on paper and physically, you're increasing your chances to make a profit.
Listen, size means nothing if the foal doesn't vet. You can still breed race horses and breed for the commercial market, ESPECIALLY if you're in the middle market.
You know what they say, always hope for the best!
If you have a quality mare and you breed to a quality stallion who matches your mare on paper and physically, you're increasing your chances to make a profit.
Listen, size means nothing if the foal doesn't vet. You can still breed race horses and breed for the commercial market, ESPECIALLY if you're in the middle market.
You know what they say, always hope for the best!
Don't be so humble - you are not that great.