Joltman wrote:When distinct horses are brought up (SR, LaT) there will always be exceptions. But the statistics are based on much larger pools and averages/medians etc. which over the whole pool point to racing class as important. Often, for an individual there may have been mitigating circumstances - relating to the horse or not. So, all those horses ready to run in 1911 with no where to go would have had their opportunities seriously limited. One could probably study certain eras as well, like market conditions in 1930, or regional racing conditions eliminated the possibilities of running.
jm
My views on pedigree have evolved considerably over time. One of the biggest evolutions is that pedigree is a GREAT proxy for genetic inheritance of specific traits--in this case, racing performance--but that once you have a living, breathing foal, there are all kinds of things that can influence performance. Illness, injury, mind, training....and it has to be said, drugs. If a horse shows promise as a 2yo in training and bows both fronts before its first race, the genetic potential never went away, but its racing ability was forever compromised. On the flip side, a good trainer can raise a moderate horse to higher levels by maximising its athletic ability. The pedigree becomes useful in trying something new, such as a surface or distance switch, or even different variations of the same surface like mud, but only when the change is new.
Once you're going to the breeding shed, though, you're back to pedigree as the main indicator of what a horse will produce, and how it will produce. A fantastic runner bred from parents who were useful to marginal producers is unlikely to reproduce itself in the shed. Think Free House. World of talent, none of his foals ran anything like what he could do.
So, for Somethingroyal, we are discussing a mare out of a four-time-stakeswinning dam, one who had produced three stakeswinners before Somethingroyal had even been born including a track record setter at Santa Anita. Her sire had already produced multiple champions, and only a year after Somethingroyal's first foal was born, Princequillo became the broodmare sire of a major stakes winner (Pocahontas II, who won the Schuylerville). The genetic potential for her was always there, and she got help from some outstanding stallions. As for her race record, unplaced in one start suggests an injury, rather than a serious case of the slows.
But--and it's a big but--if her first few foals hadn't shown much talent, she would have been sold down the river in a hurry. Mares may not face the same selection pressure as stallions, but they are constrained by biology in a way stallions are not. If a mare is sold downriver after only four foals, her likely influence on the breed is vanishingly small, just as small as a stallion who only sires four foals lifetime.
The idea that good running horses come from proven running stock isn't revolutionary--it's why pedigree records were kept in the first place.