Hi Pan,
simple, predictable, mutation apparently exists among contemporary representatives of most of the English founders.
Actually, mutation is random but its effective rate over a span of time can be surmised. In the past several years it’s been found that mtDNA mutates at a higher rate than was originally believed. This ‘discovery’ is the basis for some religious fundamentalists who believe that this can now prove that a common Eve (for humans) lived perhaps 6500 years ago and not @200,000 year ago as was originally hypothesized.
The most recent paper that I’ve read on the mutation variation in DNA was updated in 12/06:
http://www.kerchner.com/dnamutationrates.htmThis report uses a mutation rate in mtDNA of
2.9 x 10^-5 or about
3 mutations per 100,000 generations so it’s possible that some horses have mtDNA that has mutated from its’ source but there aren’t going to be very many and even still they should be definable by family (as you suggest). After all, we’re discussing a breed that’s only 300-400 years old and not the dawn of mankind.
the mtDNA we're 'looking' at today is exactly as it was many, many, dams ago.
Then I think we agree and this I’ll take this as an answer to my original question that 2 horses can’t have the same mtDNA unless they’re related by female family. Now we’re left with the problem of trying to build the house from the top down and hoping that we have a solid foundation because the problem is not identifying mutations rather it’s the embedded errors that exist in the studbook.
About a year ago I criticized Steve Harrison’s report in which I asked the question of why is it necessary to use mtDNA to determine potential racing aptitude when pedigree serves the same purpose? If the pedigree is reliable it’s a reasonable question but any scientific endeavor of this type should be applauded, so my bad.
We can assume what the DNA of an ancestor might be from the descendants but we have the problem of the aforementioned errors, whether intentional or not and the further back the fewer checks that were in place to prevent them. Alice Hawthorn’s hoof notwithstanding, I’d question the authenticity of most any equine DNA source unless the horse was alive.
I think errors in the historic record considerably earlier than 50 years ago may be identified with a high degree of confidence.
Errors that exist in the designation of female families should be possible to be identified but it’s unlikely that the Jockey Club will allow the changes to be made to the Stud Book. Errors on the sire side will be harder to establish, if at all, and again I think we can assume that the records won’t be changed. The bottom line is that we have performance based on pedigree for most of the breed in the last 50 years that’s increasing in reliability. At the least the horse is the manifestation of the actual pedigree even if we don’t yet have it right.
Regards,
Pete