Am I crazy?

Understanding pedigrees, inbreeding, dosage, etc.

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Joltman
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Am I crazy?

Postby Joltman » Sun Aug 07, 2011 7:59 pm

It's been over 15 yrs since I bred or raced anything and following things here and elsewhere as a hobby, a couple months ago I pulled the trigger on a mare that I have flagged back a couple of years - name is I'llmakeyoufamous.

http://www.pedigreequery.com/illmakeyoufamous

She one once down at Turf Paradise, but was returned to the Pac NW and at the end, ran at the very bottom.

Why the attraction? Well there were two things I loved about the mare from the get go. On the distaff side, Her dam is a half to Roses in May, who was among the all time leading money earners after his victory in the Dubai World Cup. Best runner by far by his sire, Devil his Due. Unfortunately he was sold to Japan where he has fallen off the radar screen for us in the US. There was almost nothing going on in this female family until RIMs dam, Tell a Secret, became a SW. Then a couple more SWs started popping up, when bred to less than top stallions. I believe my mare's dam, Playful Secret was unraced, but she had a couple of state bred stakes runners. They really haven't tried this female family very much with the usual ND line or MP lines really.

She however is by Defensive Play, a son of Fappiano, who is not well known here, but very popular as a broodmare sire in Australia, having two daughters who produced Melbourne Cup winners, despite rather limited opportunity. His BMPI is a healthy 2.43 with a comp index less than half that. There is a lot to like with the Fappiano line and his daughters as broodmares, and Def Play would offer something a little different than Quiet American et al.

She seems to cross well on paper with major sire lines, esp. Giants Causeway, and there are a lot of AAA+ nicks for her to try.
She has a concentration of Princequillo and Prince John back a couple generations and one would have thought a try on the turf worthwhile.

Since she was on the van ride through Ky we took a flyer and bred her to Lewis Michael (G2 SW, NTR twice) on a very late cover, but were blessed to have her catch very quickly. (no small thanks to the PFs Crystal who really helped us with all the arrangements). So she arrived in late July. She is good sized girl, and looking at her stride I kinda wished I could have tried her on the turf at Cnl this summer. Lots of things to like about her, especially her disposition - very sweet and easy to work with. She needs some extra groceries, but hopefully will fill out some.

So, we will be looking to 2012 and if, Lord willing, things work out will have a late foal and maybe another crack at breeding her next year.
So far, we're really pleased with how things have worked out, but will be looking at possibilities for foaling and breed back. Time to get serious about all this, and update the business plan!

I would be interested in some opinions on breeding options and opinions about the current status of mid-Atlantic statebred programs. Not real keen about keeping the mare elsewhere, but might consider breeding to a WV or Pa stallion. Still much prefer Ky if possible. Red Giant is high on the list right now.

My thinking is contrarian. With the yearling market this year contracting, I am hoping that prices have bottomed and will start to turn upward in a year or two if things go well even for the lower end. If nothing else, it's really neat to have a new mare, and to, in the words of the Rev. Jackson, 'keep hope alive'.

jm
Run the race - the one that's really worth winning.

hpkingjr
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DEVIL HIS DUE

Postby hpkingjr » Sun Aug 07, 2011 8:31 pm

If the old boy is still around next year why not try Devil His Due? Maybe lighting will strike again. Devil's kids don't sell very well but they all seem to run and Devil ran without medication which may be more important in the future.

http://www.pedigreequery.com/index.php? ... lor=000000
Give the Pope and the King of England a horse and in thirty days, they'll be stealing halters.

griff
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Postby griff » Mon Aug 08, 2011 3:24 am

Joltman

you do not have to breed to a WV or PA stallion to bet a WVBRED or a PABRED. What you have to do is have the foal drop in WV or PA and breed your mare back to a WV or PA stallion.

PA requires that the mare and foal stay in the state 90 days, or you can establish PA residency for the mare by moving her to PA on or before Oct 01 before the foal drops.

I have a gelding we are moving to Delaware park this Friday that is:

Maryland Sired and eligible for the Maryland Millions

PABRED and eligible for the PA residency races plus the combined 75% PABRED Owners and PABRED Breeders bonus

Delaware Certified and eligible for their 40% owners bonus

Trained in SC and eligible for $75k SC Residency race in November

I think the only think we missed is we could have "RAISED" in in WV and he would have qualified for the WVRAISED program.

Good luck with getting back in; however, I would not count on anything o/o this mare being commercial.

griff
"We has met the enemy and he is us" [Pogo]

griff
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Postby griff » Mon Aug 08, 2011 3:24 am

Joltman

you do not have to breed to a WV or PA stallion to bet a WVBRED or a PABRED. What you have to do is have the foal drop in WV or PA and breed your mare back to a WV or PA stallion.

PA requires that the mare and foal stay in the state 90 days, or you can establish PA residency for the mare by moving her to PA on or before Oct 01 before the foal drops.

I have a gelding we are moving to Delaware park this Friday that is:

Maryland Sired and eligible for the Maryland Millions

PABRED and eligible for the PA residency races plus the combined 75% PABRED Owners and PABRED Breeders bonus

Delaware Certified and eligible for their 40% owners bonus

Trained in SC and eligible for $75k SC Residency race in November

I think the only think we missed is we could have "RAISED" in in WV and he would have qualified for the WVRAISED program.

Good luck with getting back in; however, I would not count on anything o/o this mare being commercial.

griff
"We has met the enemy and he is us" [Pogo]

griff
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Postby griff » Mon Aug 08, 2011 3:25 am

Joltman

you do not have to breed to a WV or PA stallion to bet a WVBRED or a PABRED. What you have to do is have the foal drop in WV or PA and breed your mare back to a WV or PA stallion.

PA requires that the mare and foal stay in the state 90 days, or you can establish PA residency for the mare by moving her to PA on or before Oct 01 before the foal drops.

I have a gelding we are moving to Delaware park this Friday that is:

Maryland Sired and eligible for the Maryland Millions

PABRED and eligible for the PA residency races plus the combined 75% PABRED Owners and PABRED Breeders bonus

Delaware Certified and eligible for their 40% owners bonus

Trained in SC and eligible for $75k SC Residency race in November

I think the only think we missed is we could have "RAISED" in in WV and he would have qualified for the WVRAISED program.

Good luck with getting back in; however, I would not count on anything o/o this mare being commercial.

griff
"We has met the enemy and he is us" [Pogo]

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Joltman
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Postby Joltman » Mon Aug 08, 2011 5:57 am

Thanks for the state bred summary Griff. I think you've pretty much maxed the potential for working the state bred stuff. Both Pa and WV seem to have solid programs, and if you can work in the Del incentive all the better! Anybody know if VA is giving ANY incentive to BREEDERS these days, or just owners?

At this point there is something very attractive to me in trying to stick with lower end, but solid Ky stallions as, IMHO, they represent a better value in terms of what they produce. The 'name' stallions that show up in the mid Atlantic seem to me to have higher fees than they are worth - as many are castoffs from Ky after a couple of bad years. Some second tier stallions in the Midatlantic that are unproven may have potential (I like Fairbanks on paper) but they are not cheap. Many low end ones may have value, but good luck finding the right one for a given mare.

One other factor in the equation are the disadvantages (including financial) of keeping the mare in Pa or wherever for the better part of a year.

While the numbers game of the commercial route would probably prove unlikely to be profitable for a mare like this, there may be a buyer who would be interested in the potential here.

jm
Run the race - the one that's really worth winning.

Shammy Davis
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Postby Shammy Davis » Wed Aug 10, 2011 8:53 am

JM: You asked if you are crazy. The answer is a definite "yes." None of us are getting any younger but as soon I get my youngest through college, I'll probably be looking to do something a little crazy myself. Best wishes.

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Joltman
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Postby Joltman » Fri Aug 12, 2011 2:11 pm

Well, if things work out there may be a yearling to get ready for racing in a couple years. A partnership may be an option and it's an easy way to get back in and explore crazy land.

jm
Run the race - the one that's really worth winning.

griff
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Postby griff » Thu Aug 25, 2011 3:14 pm

Joltman

A Virginia has an excellent 100% bonus incentive; however, they only race 40 days a year and at best, that's two VA races a year for a VABRED.

Colonial Downs is one of the best tracks abd facilities in the country but no slots or table gambling, which I am told will not happen until the second coming of F Jerry Farwel.

Pat Roberson once had thoroughbreds but had to get rid f them as his controllers were afraid someone might buy one he bred and race it.

What are you looking for in a stallions?

giff
"We has met the enemy and he is us" [Pogo]

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Joltman
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re stallions for mare

Postby Joltman » Thu Aug 25, 2011 5:48 pm

Thus far, I've compiled a list of about 10 stallions of general interest. In another post I was fishing around for some 'tools' for decisionmaking, here are a few of the criteria that I use:

- Graded/group winner - with stamina and some brilliance/or track record holder.
- Solid matchups in the G1 database, preferably a 20/20 mating
- B Nick rating from both True Nicks and Enicks. Pref much better
- Am looking at a ND sire line as the mare has no ND, with Fappiano on Damsire line. Will consider others, maybe down the road.
- Ky or MidAtlantic (Pa pref, maybe WV or NY).
- stud fee under $10k unless there is some real reason for otherwise.
- capability on dirt, turf, AW a plus

The Giants Causeway line has a lot going for it for this mare from the computer reports. (e.g. Red Giant) I'm not adverse to an unproven stallion. I may wait to see if we get a Lewis Michael baby next year, then use that as another data point.

I need to get a good conformational or biomechanical analysis of the mare. Anyone who wants to stop by and take a look, let me know and I'll provide you a mint julep on the deck (in season).

jm
Run the race - the one that's really worth winning.