Pedigree Query

How many people actually do a True Nick or eNick report and follow what it grades to be the best match for your mare?

Just curious as I am looking next year to bred two of my mares to an out side stallion. So I did a few True and E nicks and got alot of A and B's but still does not help decide.

I don't consider those programs' results to be an important factor in selecting a mating for my mares.

True Gimmicks and E Gimmicks are based on faulty data and assumptions. That's one reason why you received different ratings on the same hypo breeding.

They also ignore all female contributions, including male/female affinities. Conformation and temperament are also absent in their "analysis."

If you want a complete meal you go to a nice restaurant. If you just want something to fill your stomach you go to a drive-thru hamburger joint.

Nicking products are high priced, low value junk food.

I agree....I have always felt the same way but so many high end breeders, (hence they put the Nicks on their web site for each stud) swear by them.....I think it is nonsence and just wanted to see if I was the only one.

Why do so many people put faith in that system.

I think it is the opposite.. nicks tend to over-simplify decisions for those for whom the whole pedigree thing is just too big to grasp. So the stud farms put the nicking links on their website in the hopes of getting a mare booked with nothing more to offer than an A rating - the stud farm doesn't care provided she comes with a checkbook.

Nick Gimmicks serve one purpose---to make money for the companies which provide them. That's why the Blood-Horse jumped on board the Nickwagon. Their advertising revenues took a hard hit so in their struggle to survive swallowed their professional pride and teamed up with True Gimmicks.

Stallion owners take advantage of this partnership because they think it will drum up more business. But NO career horseman takes this cottage industry seriously. Those who do also believes in the tooth fairy and in The Golden Arches of McDonalds.

madelyn wrote:I think it is the opposite.. nicks tend to over-simplify decisions for those for whom the whole pedigree thing is just too big to grasp. So the stud farms put the nicking links on their website in the hopes of getting a mare booked with nothing more to offer than an A rating - the stud farm doesn't care provided she comes with a checkbook.

Actually they do care, but not how you think they would! They get annoyed at TrueNicks because it doesn't give out as many A's as Enicks.

Barcaldine wrote:Nick Gimmicks serve one purpose---to make money for the companies which provide them. That's why the Blood-Horse jumped on board the Nickwagon. Their advertising revenues took a hard hit so in their struggle to survive swallowed their professional pride and teamed up with True Gimmicks.

False on two counts

TrueNicks went into partnership with the Blood-Horse back in 2007, well before any financial crash.

The first matings that could have used TrueNicks are current two year olds and we are already having breeders comment on their successes. You might like to take a look at this also. http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/truenick ... inker.aspx

Barcaldine wrote: Stallion owners take advantage of this partnership because they think it will drum up more business. But NO career horseman takes this cottage industry seriously. Those who do also believes in the tooth fairy and in The Golden Arches of McDonalds.

True...stallion owners primarily use the service to drum up more business, but we believe that higher rated foals will ultimately help the stallion so who is helping who?

As for no career horseman taking nicking seriously, we just had a multiple Sovereign award winning farm order 30 Broodmare reports for their broodmare band. I guess they are not serious....

So where does that leave a stallion owner that has a non performing stud (never raced) that can come up with a great "Nick" cross to a decent mare? Or not so decent even....Is this how these stallions get noticed?

There are a lot of well known stallions that have never raced or shown in anything yet end up producing winners......is this how they get the mares to them?

Katowice comes to mind only because I owned a filly out of him once.

brogers wrote:

Barcaldine wrote:Nick Gimmicks serve one purpose---to make money for the companies which provide them. That's why the Blood-Horse jumped on board the Nickwagon. Their advertising revenues took a hard hit so in their struggle to survive swallowed their professional pride and teamed up with True Gimmicks.

False on two counts

TrueNicks went into partnership with the Blood-Horse back in 2007, well before any financial crash.

The Blood Horse has been circling the drain for years. They've been around long enough to have learned the same lessons the nicksters already knew: there's a new sucker born every day,



The first matings that could have used TrueNicks are current two year olds and we are already having breeders comment on their successes. You might like to take a look at this also. http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/truenick ... inker.aspx

Many of the nicks are no-brainers. Mr. P/Northern Dancer; SS/ Mr. P., etc. Taking credit for re-writing history takes balls. You have conveniently overlooked at least 50 percent of the so-called nicks by ignoring sire line/dam line affinities. You'll find far more successful breeders who subscribe to this concept than neophytes who are wowed by your polysyllabic b.s.

Barcaldine wrote: Stallion owners take advantage of this partnership because they think it will drum up more business. But NO career horseman takes this cottage industry seriously. Those who do also believes in the tooth fairy and in The Golden Arches of McDonalds.

True...stallion owners primarily use the service to drum up more business, but we believe that higher rated foals will ultimately help the stallion so who is helping who?

It's all about lining your pockets now. Your sample sizes are generally too small to derive any conclusive evidence, your lack of differentiation between stakes winners in defining success, and your assumption that what has worked in several cases in the past will necessarily predict the future all stack up as reasons why nicksters mislead the public.

As for no career horseman taking nicking seriously, we just had a multiple Sovereign award winning farm order 30 Broodmare reports for their broodmare band. I guess they are not serious....

See, you were right. Another sucker was born!

Barcaldine wrote:

See, you were right. Another sucker was born!

I disagree. You don't know how particular breeders are using "nick tools" and it appears that you are making a general statement as if a breeder invested in it that it is a waste of money.

Maybe for you, but not for everyone. If "nick tools," whether used singularly or in partnership with other mating information, support the notion to a breeder that a particular mating has a high probability of producing a foal with the potential of being a winner, then the investment makes sense.

I read your disparaging comments as "everyone who uses "nick tools" is a sucker and stupid. You use the term "snake oil." You suggested that the data is faulty. So if you know it is, it would nice information for a breeder to know. Why don't you provide specific evidence of the errorneous data? As you noted, there are probably omissions and considerations in the "nick tool" that a breeder should consider, but that does not make the information at face value erroneous. It is very possible that those omissions are not consistent with what the nick tool developer could actually calculate. Conformation ratings are highly subjective and it is unlikely that any like calculations could adequately be representative of the effect they would have on performance.

Madelyn is absolutely correct that used by itself, a "nick tool is really an oversimplication of what the potential results might be. But in all honesty, so is dosage, conduit mare profiles, family identification, AEI, pari-mutuel odds, pedigree analysis, auction book pages and so on. It appears that you don't believe that mare owners are capable of intelligently taking a broad and competent look at available stallions and making selections based on their understanding and confidence in the information.

You are also assuming that stallion owners are deceiving the breeding public to make a buck. Maybe some are, but I think for the most part stallion owners are in business of producing the best possible progeny from the matings. To do otherwise is simply financial suicide. As far as nicks for unraced stallions or stallions whose competitive careers were lackluster, you are assuming that mating decisions are based on hype and not other considerations and you actually disregard the possibility of that an unraced or uncompetitive stallion might produce winning progeny and they do.

Mating selections are difficult at best and even if a "nick tool" proves a negative to support a positive result with say directing the mare owner to another stallion selection, the $ investment might well prove to be a great business write-off for a profitable investment.

I disagree with your premise that "nick tools" are snake oil, as you commented on another thread. "Nick Tools" are just one of many resources available to the mare owner. Whether it is used poorly or positively is up to the mare owner but if they use it poorly, it doesn't make them suckers. They have just managed their resources badly. Hopefully, every mare owner learns from his/her mistakes and the next time they improve on their management skills. That is what makes horse races.

ok here is one you can follow -----sky classic had two millionaire sons --both were from mares whose sire was a son of mr prospector ---both had nijinski 3x3 and both had bottom line going to one of the many crosses to selene and neither ran at two --------my gelding "string theory" is out of a mare bred to a son of mr prospector----he has 3x3 influence of nijinsky and is of the selene maternal family and 12 crosses---also he comes with bold ruler as do the other two ---

true nicks shows a A++ RATING -----will he make a million as the others did ????? well he breezed three times at two and will resume training shortly ------the stars are all lined up will they shine thru the clouds ??? run theo run

There is certainly a statistical basis to both of the commercial nicking approaches. These affiinities are one of many tools that can be used. I don't know if they re-test and revise their models, but all they can do is reflect the past, with the hope for the breeder that the trend is real and continue in the future. There is a force to regress to the mean - so those nicks that have enough statistical foundation should not be ignored. Nor should other valuable approaches.

jm

There is certainly a statistical basis to both of the commercial nicking approaches. These affiinities are one of many tools that can be used. I don't know if they re-test and revise their models, but all they can do is reflect the past, with the hope for the breeder that the trend is real and continue in the future. There is a force to regress to the mean - so those nicks that have enough statistical foundation and continue should not be ignored. Nor should other valuable approaches.

jm

Joltman hits the nail on the head when he points out that all that nicks services "can do is reflect the past, with the hope for the breeder that the trend is real and continue in the future." Or, as mutual fund prospectuses correctly warn, "past performance is no guarantee of future results."

Whether one puts much stock in nicks ratings or not, stallion owners and managers certainly seem to. They obviously take more kindly to mares with an A+ mating rating with their stallion and can make it a deciding factor in getting to a stallion -- and at what price.