Forgive me if this has been discussed already but I see via the blogs that that the % starters durability stats are up that were discussed a while ago...
Looks like a list of those most likely to be gelded, but nonetheless it is interesting to see these numbers aggregated...
http://www.bloodhorse.com/pdf/StallionD ... tyList.pdf
Thoughts?
KH
% Starters Sire Stats are up
Moderators: Roguelet, WaveMaster, madelyn
Article Referring to the Stats
Durability rankings for sires lack stars
Data on percentage of starters released
By Gregory A. Hall
[email protected]
The Courier-Journal
LEXINGTON, Ky. -- The sires atop a new list aimed at producing more durable thoroughbreds are not the names most racing fans would expect to see as parents of next year's Kentucky Derby field.
Turbulent Kris, who stood for a $1,500 fee this year, has had almost 89 percent of his offspring of racing age reach the starting gate, according to an industry group's initial statistics on durability.
The current statistics are the first released on durability as an outgrowth of last year's Welfare and Safety of the Racehorse Summit, sponsored by The Jockey Club and the Grayson-Jockey Club Research Foundation.
Ed Bowen, the foundation president and chairman of the committee working on the durability stats, said the information could be useful for people at the lower end of the thoroughbred market.
But he doesn't expect that the statistics in their current form will sway breeding decisions at the top of the market.
"We see it very much as an adjunct to what people are used to seeing, earnings of a sires progeny, stakes winners, all that stuff," he said.
With 30 percent of registered thoroughbreds never making it to the racetrack, Bowen said, the percentage of starters has merit.
"As a standalone factor, that doesn't tell you a lot, but it tells you a little," he said, "and as you put that into the other things you know about a stallion, I think that's highly significant."
The most recognizable sires near the top of the list could be 1995 Louisiana Derby winner Petionville -- who sired multiple Grade I winner Island Fashion and multiple graded stakes winner Runway Model -- and 1996 Jim Beam Stakes winner Roar.
Petionville stood at Crestwood Farm in Kentucky for $15,000 while Roar stood for $7,500. Both figures are well below the six-figure fees that top sires command.
Although the top names were not the most recognizable in breeding, three of the top five on the list are direct descendants of the late Mr. Prospector, one of the most dominant sires in racing.
The committee also released a list of average starts per starter for stallions' progeny that also didn't show the big names. Both lists excluded results from current 2-year-olds and used other restrictions aimed at obtaining a significant sample for stallions on the list.
Kentucky native Larry Jones, the trainer of this year's Kentucky Derby runner-up Hard Spun, said durability is important to him, although the buying market makes him wonder how much it is a factor overall.
"I sometimes wonder what others are looking at because I see them pay a lot of money for horses … (from) a mare that's had 12 foals and three runners. Well, those I'm not interested in. … It makes me think that they're not spending their own money."
Jones said trainers and other buyers anecdotally get a feel for general traits of stallions' offspring as they see them race.
"That's what I figure is part of my job trying to protect my owners, is to make my recommendations on that real quick and just try not to load the barn down with those kind of (problem) horses," he said.
Bowen and others in the industry said they aren't surprised by the absence of the big names from the top of the list.
Distorted Humor, the $225,000-fee sire of 2003 Derby winner Funny Cide, was the only sire with a six-figure stud fee among the top horses on the list. Nearly 82 percent of Distorted Humor's runners reached the racetrack.
There "is a statistical prejudice we think against fashionable sires," Bowen said, because offspring of those stallions are more likely to be retired from racing sooner, especially fillies who are attractive broodmare prospects.
Dan Rosenberg, the president of Three Chimneys Farm in Woodford County, compared the results of the survey to a sports car being in the shop more often than other vehicles that don't go as fast.
"I think there is an inherent incompatibility between speed and durability," he said. "… When you're talking about leading sires, people want the horses that win the graded stakes. They're not trying to find the soundest horse. … I think soundness has to be a factor in every mating decision, but if I breed a sound horse that can't win, I'm not accomplishing anything. So I mean there's a balance, but the primary thing we're looking for is the ability to win graded stakes."
Boyd Browning, Fasig-Tipton's executive vice president, said the higher-priced auction yearlings are more likely to be given a layoff with a less-serious injury than horses with a lower investment.
Because buyers are looking for stakes-level horses, Browning said he doesn't see the market being influenced much by the new numbers.
Bowen said a more comprehensive durability and soundness index is being developed -- for released late this year or early next year -- that he hopes will have a greater impact on the market. That index could weight a stallion's average yearling auction price to compensate for the initial numbers' bias against them.
It also could factor in durable sire lines -- the grandsires and beyond -- who have a history of producing sounder racehorses.
Reporter Gregory A. Hall can be reached at (502) 582-4087.
Data on percentage of starters released
By Gregory A. Hall
[email protected]
The Courier-Journal
LEXINGTON, Ky. -- The sires atop a new list aimed at producing more durable thoroughbreds are not the names most racing fans would expect to see as parents of next year's Kentucky Derby field.
Turbulent Kris, who stood for a $1,500 fee this year, has had almost 89 percent of his offspring of racing age reach the starting gate, according to an industry group's initial statistics on durability.
The current statistics are the first released on durability as an outgrowth of last year's Welfare and Safety of the Racehorse Summit, sponsored by The Jockey Club and the Grayson-Jockey Club Research Foundation.
Ed Bowen, the foundation president and chairman of the committee working on the durability stats, said the information could be useful for people at the lower end of the thoroughbred market.
But he doesn't expect that the statistics in their current form will sway breeding decisions at the top of the market.
"We see it very much as an adjunct to what people are used to seeing, earnings of a sires progeny, stakes winners, all that stuff," he said.
With 30 percent of registered thoroughbreds never making it to the racetrack, Bowen said, the percentage of starters has merit.
"As a standalone factor, that doesn't tell you a lot, but it tells you a little," he said, "and as you put that into the other things you know about a stallion, I think that's highly significant."
The most recognizable sires near the top of the list could be 1995 Louisiana Derby winner Petionville -- who sired multiple Grade I winner Island Fashion and multiple graded stakes winner Runway Model -- and 1996 Jim Beam Stakes winner Roar.
Petionville stood at Crestwood Farm in Kentucky for $15,000 while Roar stood for $7,500. Both figures are well below the six-figure fees that top sires command.
Although the top names were not the most recognizable in breeding, three of the top five on the list are direct descendants of the late Mr. Prospector, one of the most dominant sires in racing.
The committee also released a list of average starts per starter for stallions' progeny that also didn't show the big names. Both lists excluded results from current 2-year-olds and used other restrictions aimed at obtaining a significant sample for stallions on the list.
Kentucky native Larry Jones, the trainer of this year's Kentucky Derby runner-up Hard Spun, said durability is important to him, although the buying market makes him wonder how much it is a factor overall.
"I sometimes wonder what others are looking at because I see them pay a lot of money for horses … (from) a mare that's had 12 foals and three runners. Well, those I'm not interested in. … It makes me think that they're not spending their own money."
Jones said trainers and other buyers anecdotally get a feel for general traits of stallions' offspring as they see them race.
"That's what I figure is part of my job trying to protect my owners, is to make my recommendations on that real quick and just try not to load the barn down with those kind of (problem) horses," he said.
Bowen and others in the industry said they aren't surprised by the absence of the big names from the top of the list.
Distorted Humor, the $225,000-fee sire of 2003 Derby winner Funny Cide, was the only sire with a six-figure stud fee among the top horses on the list. Nearly 82 percent of Distorted Humor's runners reached the racetrack.
There "is a statistical prejudice we think against fashionable sires," Bowen said, because offspring of those stallions are more likely to be retired from racing sooner, especially fillies who are attractive broodmare prospects.
Dan Rosenberg, the president of Three Chimneys Farm in Woodford County, compared the results of the survey to a sports car being in the shop more often than other vehicles that don't go as fast.
"I think there is an inherent incompatibility between speed and durability," he said. "… When you're talking about leading sires, people want the horses that win the graded stakes. They're not trying to find the soundest horse. … I think soundness has to be a factor in every mating decision, but if I breed a sound horse that can't win, I'm not accomplishing anything. So I mean there's a balance, but the primary thing we're looking for is the ability to win graded stakes."
Boyd Browning, Fasig-Tipton's executive vice president, said the higher-priced auction yearlings are more likely to be given a layoff with a less-serious injury than horses with a lower investment.
Because buyers are looking for stakes-level horses, Browning said he doesn't see the market being influenced much by the new numbers.
Bowen said a more comprehensive durability and soundness index is being developed -- for released late this year or early next year -- that he hopes will have a greater impact on the market. That index could weight a stallion's average yearling auction price to compensate for the initial numbers' bias against them.
It also could factor in durable sire lines -- the grandsires and beyond -- who have a history of producing sounder racehorses.
Reporter Gregory A. Hall can be reached at (502) 582-4087.
They devised a durability measure that didn't help the 'fashionable' sires so it must be biased. Now they are going to go back and modify their calculator so that the more expensive stallions get credit for siring the most durable horses. That's the problem with models, if the developer doesn't like the story the model is telling, they just tinker with it until it tells them what they want to hear. If the new versions tell the same story, look for this statistic to be discontinued.
Durability vs AEI
These are the horses on the "durability" list (>70% starters from foals) and also on the AEI top 100 list (AEI>1.48 )
If you don't have illusions of graded stakes wins or standing your colt at stud I suppose this short list of sires is as good as any to try and balance risk and rewards...
Sire AEI CI
ALPHABET SOUP 1.55 1.44
ANABAA 1.79 2.31
ARCH 2.04 1.76
AWESOME AGAIN 2.52 2.32
BELONG TO ME 1.69 1.87
BERNSTEIN 1.97 1.4
CHEROKEE RUN 1.58 1.77
CONCERTO 1.66 1.33
DEHERE 1.97 1.62
DISTORTED HUMOR 2.57 1.84
ELUSIVE QUALITY 2.12 2.42
GRAND SLAM 1.6 1.96
HOLY BULL 1.7 2
LEMON DROP KID 1.82 2.71
MALIBU MOON 1.86 1.5
MORE THAN READY 1.91 2
MR. GREELEY 1.51 1.69
NORTHERN AFLEET 1.73 1.43
NOT FOR LOVE 1.83 1.51
PULPIT 2.08 2.96
SMART STRIKE 2.66 1.98
SMOKE GLACKEN 1.71 1.43
STEPHEN GOT EVEN 1.53 1.46
SUCCESSFUL APPEAL 2.17 1.38
TALE OF THE CAT 1.79 1.91
TEJANO RUN 1.49 1.13
THUNDER GULCH 1.54 1.93
UNBRIDLED'S SONG 1.99 2.71
VICTORY GALLOP 1.6 1.72
WHISKEY WISDOM 1.67 1.75
If you don't have illusions of graded stakes wins or standing your colt at stud I suppose this short list of sires is as good as any to try and balance risk and rewards...
Sire AEI CI
ALPHABET SOUP 1.55 1.44
ANABAA 1.79 2.31
ARCH 2.04 1.76
AWESOME AGAIN 2.52 2.32
BELONG TO ME 1.69 1.87
BERNSTEIN 1.97 1.4
CHEROKEE RUN 1.58 1.77
CONCERTO 1.66 1.33
DEHERE 1.97 1.62
DISTORTED HUMOR 2.57 1.84
ELUSIVE QUALITY 2.12 2.42
GRAND SLAM 1.6 1.96
HOLY BULL 1.7 2
LEMON DROP KID 1.82 2.71
MALIBU MOON 1.86 1.5
MORE THAN READY 1.91 2
MR. GREELEY 1.51 1.69
NORTHERN AFLEET 1.73 1.43
NOT FOR LOVE 1.83 1.51
PULPIT 2.08 2.96
SMART STRIKE 2.66 1.98
SMOKE GLACKEN 1.71 1.43
STEPHEN GOT EVEN 1.53 1.46
SUCCESSFUL APPEAL 2.17 1.38
TALE OF THE CAT 1.79 1.91
TEJANO RUN 1.49 1.13
THUNDER GULCH 1.54 1.93
UNBRIDLED'S SONG 1.99 2.71
VICTORY GALLOP 1.6 1.72
WHISKEY WISDOM 1.67 1.75
US
Well I guess he's on the list because he has 73% starters from foals but the 11.1 starts per starter he has ain't setting the world on fire... I guess it's not as bad as some who didn't even make the list...
Below is the 30 on the list who have the lowest starts per starter. You can see that he's stuck in with a bunch of newbies who haven't had their foals racing for as many years as some... So I guess you could say: Of sires that get 70% foals to the races he's got a pretty low percentage of starts per starter... I suppose that ain't so good and might point to justification of his reputation. Average starts per runner for the breed is 6.37 (per year I assume per Jockeyclub)
The standout it seems to me is clearly Not for Love:
Not For Love (97)
Foals of RA 477
Starters 397
% to race 83.20%
Starts per starter 19.1
% Winners 61%
AEI 1.83
CI 1.51
7% Stakewinners
Stallion, Fls RA, Strtrs, %Startrs/RA Foals, Avg. Starts per Starter
War Chant (02) 186 134 0.72 6.9
Fusaichi Pegasus (02) 279 201 0.72 6.9
Giant’s Causeway (02) 421 309 0.734 7.4
Lemon Drop Kid (02) 243 182 0.749 8
Dixie Union (02) 214 164 0.766 8.1
Behrens (02) 125 90 0.72 9.3
Stephen Got Even (02) 184 141 0.766 9.6
Richter Scale (02) 145 106 0.731 9.9
More Than Ready (02) 247 206 0.834 10
Chief Seattle (02) 188 133 0.707 10.1
Old Topper (02) 147 112 0.762 10.4
Stephanotis (01) 111 80 0.721 11
Storm and a Half (02) 123 87 0.707 11
Unbridled’s Song (98) 575 420 0.73 11.1
Straight Man (02) 212 150 0.708 11.1
Yes It’s True (02) 241 201 0.834 11.2
Grand Slam (00) 604 435 0.72 11.2
Tactical Cat (01) 287 217 0.756 11.3
Unbridled Jet (02) 159 117 0.736 11.3
Cat Thief (02) 207 147 0.71 11.3
Pulpit (99) 342 260 0.76 11.4
Successful Appeal (02) 124 93 0.75 11.4
Bernstein (02) 110 84 0.764 11.5
Touch Gold (00) 404 301 0.745 11.5
Hennessy (98) 564 434 0.77 11.6
Awesome Again (00) 359 257 0.716 11.6
Elusive Quality (00) 395 308 0.78 11.7
Mazel Trick (01) 286 201 0.703 11.7
Stormin Fever (01) 314 246 0.783 11.8
King of Scat (02) 102 72 0.706 11.8
Below is the 30 on the list who have the lowest starts per starter. You can see that he's stuck in with a bunch of newbies who haven't had their foals racing for as many years as some... So I guess you could say: Of sires that get 70% foals to the races he's got a pretty low percentage of starts per starter... I suppose that ain't so good and might point to justification of his reputation. Average starts per runner for the breed is 6.37 (per year I assume per Jockeyclub)
The standout it seems to me is clearly Not for Love:
Not For Love (97)
Foals of RA 477
Starters 397
% to race 83.20%
Starts per starter 19.1
% Winners 61%
AEI 1.83
CI 1.51
7% Stakewinners
Stallion, Fls RA, Strtrs, %Startrs/RA Foals, Avg. Starts per Starter
War Chant (02) 186 134 0.72 6.9
Fusaichi Pegasus (02) 279 201 0.72 6.9
Giant’s Causeway (02) 421 309 0.734 7.4
Lemon Drop Kid (02) 243 182 0.749 8
Dixie Union (02) 214 164 0.766 8.1
Behrens (02) 125 90 0.72 9.3
Stephen Got Even (02) 184 141 0.766 9.6
Richter Scale (02) 145 106 0.731 9.9
More Than Ready (02) 247 206 0.834 10
Chief Seattle (02) 188 133 0.707 10.1
Old Topper (02) 147 112 0.762 10.4
Stephanotis (01) 111 80 0.721 11
Storm and a Half (02) 123 87 0.707 11
Unbridled’s Song (98) 575 420 0.73 11.1
Straight Man (02) 212 150 0.708 11.1
Yes It’s True (02) 241 201 0.834 11.2
Grand Slam (00) 604 435 0.72 11.2
Tactical Cat (01) 287 217 0.756 11.3
Unbridled Jet (02) 159 117 0.736 11.3
Cat Thief (02) 207 147 0.71 11.3
Pulpit (99) 342 260 0.76 11.4
Successful Appeal (02) 124 93 0.75 11.4
Bernstein (02) 110 84 0.764 11.5
Touch Gold (00) 404 301 0.745 11.5
Hennessy (98) 564 434 0.77 11.6
Awesome Again (00) 359 257 0.716 11.6
Elusive Quality (00) 395 308 0.78 11.7
Mazel Trick (01) 286 201 0.703 11.7
Stormin Fever (01) 314 246 0.783 11.8
King of Scat (02) 102 72 0.706 11.8
Just out of curiosity, I ran the top "durable stallions" from this report through my database of dead, sick, or injured horses (it's SO depressing) and the first 25 of them don't show up anywhere in the sire or damsire of the "fallen".
Lit de Justice is the first.
Lit de Justice is the first.
All shouting does is make you lose your voice.
----Arrested Development
----Arrested Development
Re: % Starters Sire Stats are up
Gallop58 wrote:Forgive me if this has been discussed already but I see via the blogs that that the % starters durability stats are up that were discussed a while ago...
Looks like a list of those most likely to be gelded, but nonetheless it is interesting to see these numbers aggregated...
http://www.bloodhorse.com/pdf/StallionD ... tyList.pdf
Thoughts?
KH
Looks like anyone who pays more than a $25K stud fee is a fool if they are planning on starting in a race.