Wish us well! #5178 Keeneland

[TB4sport]

The Jackpot was a very suspicious sale, indeed.

I've been trying to watch & learn here. Why do you say the sale was suspicious?

[madelyn]

Jackpot is a son of Seeking the Gold with a VERY modest race record, out of a full sister to Out of Place. Jackpot stands in CA for $3500, and Out of Place is in KY for $7500. Neither is a set the world on fire kind of sire. Jackpot had one mare sell in foal for $4700, which is the only other auction result. It is questionable that his ONLY offspring to grace a KY auction would actually bring $45K. Of course it is possible, just unlikely.

Sometimes a stallion owner will have someone "buy" the offspring for an inflated price, pay the commission to the sales house which in this case would be $1,150, and write it off as an advertising expense. It's cheaper than a decent sized ad in the Bloodhorse.

[TB4sport]

I get what you're saying about sale price vs stud fee, race records of Jackpot & family, but would that matter as much if the filly was very correct & attractive, moved well, and had vetted clean?

I'm curious, as I come from an eventing background and always look at a horse's structure & soundness & movement before pedigree unless there is a known flaw in pedigree like navicular, etc. It's one thing that has struck an interest with me watching the sales and race stallions in general. It seems there is more focus on "who's who" over basic structural soundness/confirmation.

Also, how would you know if the seller and/or buyer was affiliated with the stallion owners to inflate the sale price? Or is that simply a matter of seller/buyer reputation?

I'm fascinated w/this industry, especially the difference between breeding to sell vs to race. That's always been a "head scratcher" for me as I thought the goal was for the horse to race well regardless?

A career ending injury has left me out my own saddle and I'm exploring other equine industries to see what my future options are so that I can stay in the horse world w/o riding. Any insight you have is appreciated and doesn't fall on deaf ears.

[ratherrapid]

TB on very brief thought, I'd summarize the sales that there's generally a relationship between bid price and catalogue page. There's a relation between horse conformation and bid price maybe 10-15% of the time. When they bring an obvious athlete into the ring, this generally get's attention IF there are buyers at the sale at the moment. (e.g. during the noon hour when the deep pockets are having their martinis). Of course, opposite effect when there's a problem.

Perplexity comes to play when there's a high price for the ordinary horse(which most of them are) with a good catalogue. The question becomes why would anybody pay 1--2-3-4 hundred grand on up for an ordinary horse when they could get just as good an animal on the last two days of the sale for a lark--look at henthorn's nice animal (if it's without the right knee problem the photo shows). For that matter why would they pay 30 grand on up?

I suspect, but it's unknown to me factually, that there are various reasons. There are pin hookers of course. I also believe that there are various entities merely trading horses trying to catch the occasional schill who is actually a real buyer--but, again this is wild speculation on my part. All this is interspersed with a few sharpies actually spying out race horses. I keep reading the number of stakes winners produced from the first day catalogue pages. I'd be interested to know how many are produced from the last two days. My guess is it would be pretty close to an even number. Additionally, there's the question why anybody would pay a lot of money for these fat, hot housed yearlings that have'net had a lick of exercise besides walking since they were taken out of the fields as babies. Would $$$ be far more wisely spent conditioning from birth on a few Henthorn types?

[springboro]

which leads me to comment: Know what you're getting yourself into.

if you want to sell at a major sale, have a commercial sire and black type. And this can mean a freshman sire..we have all seen the amazing strength of unproven sires. Young mares seem to be well received too.

If you're going to breed to an established stud, examine his sales records. Look at the mare's produce record in the sales.

Add up the stud fee, the foaling expenses, the weaning, the conditioning and sales prep. Do this before you breed your mare. If you don't make a sizeable profit, then ask yourself why not.

I tried the route of using established stallions. I had a very nice Apalachee colt which i brought home and sold privately, and a lovely Deerhound filly who brought a very standard price. (and that was the year that Countess Diana was the champion filly)

Now, I'm going to try my own advice and see if using a new sire and maiden mares will show any profit. Time and luck and prayer will tell, I imagine. My first test will be in November with an in-foal mare.

For what it's worth, both of these maidens of mine have 1st dams that produced the fastest under tack runners in their respective years at OBS two year old sales. While both those foals were speed demons at the sales, it does appear to have taken to out of both of them. Fastest under tack doesnt' seem to translate into racing success.

A fascinating game, this horsey business.

[madelyn]

A further example of what I was talking about - Hip 5455. Teton Forest is owned by B. Wayne Hughes, so he was buying back a colt from his own stallion, perhaps because it was so astounding an individual he just HAD to spend $40K to get him , or perhaps it was to boost the stallion's average price for the sale. These kind often happen in the last couple of days of the sale. To get to know the relationships, from my perspective, has taken several years of "watching".. it is also interesting to hang around the sale grounds at the end and see what farm's trailer a "sold" multo-thousand scratch-your-head yearling goes home in.

[LB]

TB on very brief thought, I'd summarize the sales that there's generally a relationship between bid price and catalogue page. There's a relation between horse conformation and bid price maybe 10-15% of the time. When they bring an obvious athlete into the ring, this generally get's attention IF there are buyers at the sale at the moment. (e.g. during the noon hour when the deep pockets are having their martinis). Of course, opposite effect when there's a problem.

Perplexity comes to play when there's a high price for the ordinary horse(which most of them are) with a good catalogue. The question becomes why would anybody pay 1--2-3-4 hundred grand on up for an ordinary horse when they could get just as good an animal on the last two days of the sale for a lark--look at henthorn's nice animal (if it's without the right knee problem the photo shows). For that matter why would they pay 30 grand on up?

I suspect, but it's unknown to me factually, that there are various reasons. There are pin hookers of course. I also believe that there are various entities merely trading horses trying to catch the occasional schill who is actually a real buyer--but, again this is wild speculation on my part. All this is interspersed with a few sharpies actually spying out race horses. I keep reading the number of stakes winners produced from the first day catalogue pages. I'd be interested to know how many are produced from the last two days. My guess is it would be pretty close to an even number. Additionally, there's the question why anybody would pay a lot of money for these fat, hot housed yearlings that have'net had a lick of exercise besides walking since they were taken out of the fields as babies. Would $$$ be far more wisely spent conditioning from birth on a few Henthorn types?

I guess I'd have to disagree with just about everything written here.

There's a relation between horse conformation and bid price maybe 10-15% of the time.

I can't imagine what would make you think that. At the sales, at the moment, conformation and athleticism is what the buyers are looking for. Clean x-rays and a good scope are also paramount.

Most of the yearlings in the early books are there for a reason. Not only do they look the part, but they're also by stallions and from female families that have a history of proven success in producing good racehorses. The black type is up close, ie under the first dam, not all the way down the page. Just about every TB traces back to good horses somewhere, the point is to have them as close relatives. That's meaningful. If you wanted to have red-headed children, you'd marry a redhead, wouldn't you? You wouldn't marry a brunette and hope for the best. Genetics count.

In addition, the yearlings that sell for high prices vet well. Many of those that go for lower prices already have problems--ocds, chips, sesamoiditis, etc--of the type that makes the majority of buyers shy away from them. Again, that's just good sense. Why start with issues if you don't have to?

Additionally, there's the question why anybody would pay a lot of money for these fat, hot housed yearlings that have'net had a lick of exercise besides walking since they were taken out of the fields as babies.

This is your basic urban myth perpetuated by posters on BBs who've never had a yearling prepped for a sale. Or---maybe I should qualify that by saying, while that may be true in other parts of the country, it's not the way things are done in Kentucky.

[windyr]

Sry about the sale results. I bought three at the sale, by Orientate, Point Given and Distant View and none looked as good as your filly. From the photo, she really seems to be a very athletic, race prospect.

[ct2346]

I didn't think the Jackpot was suspicious at all - in the flesh. He was gorgeous. Yes the page was very light, but this was a man among boys. Physical sells.

[ratherrapid]

sometimes ct, sometimes. they all fell asleep in unison when henthorne's filly came in.

[Sysonby]

I didn't think the Jackpot was suspicious at all - in the flesh. He was gorgeous. Yes the page was very light, but this was a man among boys. Physical sells.

That's what I suspected. No one is propping up Jackpot and if they were to do it, they would do it in the sale coming up at Barretts not in Kentucky.

While it is prudent to be careful in this business, sometimes someone's good fortune is really someone's good fortune.

[zinn21]

CT, were you there for the last 2 days of the sale? If so, I watched quite a few sell on the internet the last few days and thought there were a number of good individuals that sold for between $4-$10,000. Am I wrong? Were the goodlooking ones so crooked or failed to vet out, the reason for the under $10,000 prices??

[zinn21]

CT, were you there for the last 2 days of the sale? If so, I watched quite a few sell on the internet the last few days and thought there were a number of good individuals that sold for between $4-$10,000. Am I wrong? Were the goodlooking ones so crooked or failed to vet out, the reason for the under $10,000 prices??

[ct2346]

Sysonby

I was actually feeling kind of happy for the Jackpot owners. Every once in a while someone hits a (relative) home run and you have to feel happy for them.

Zinn-

Yes there were a fair number of totally acceptable individuals in that last book 8. I took one of them home. Also got a colt out of book 6. There were some funky offerings in that last book but there were also a number of really good looking horses. Of course all of the Buddha's looked good but people weren't get drawn in there anymore.

[TB4sport]

I did see the Jackpot filly and also thought she was beautifully put together and was quite substantial with a broad chest and good bone. That girl certainly wasn't standing on toothpicks. Physically, she's one that I'd like to have in my barn.

That's one reason that I originally asked why someone thought the sale suspicious. But, from the perspective that was explained, I understand now why one would think this.

As far as why was she $45 instead of $10, since there were others that looked good go for less? Well, isn't that the "fun" of an auction style sale? For the buyer to try to get a steal and the seller to hope that multiple people will "argue" over who gets to bring the horse home, hence driving up the price?

BTW-Henthorn I am sorry for you that your horse did not sell. The not-so-fun side of an auction, huh?