Postby geowarrior » Sat Mar 01, 2008 10:35 pm
Reason for bump, Zonn? I still like Pyro. Not much news about Limestone Edge that I've heard recently - too bad, I liked him a great deal.
I'm concerned about the overall dearth of speed among the runners in these Derby preps. I'm not a Beyer freak but there are a lot of so-called contenders with maximum speeds well below what I generally think of in a Derby contender. I think War Pass looks good physically and I approve of the safety aspect of the recent run in the one mile allowance, given that many horses don't seem to have come back successfully from the B.C., but it did not convince me of the competitiveness of the horse given that it was a mile against highly inferior company. Nevertheless, if the current crop is as weak as I'm starting to wonder, then War Pass could be almost a classic winner just because he has enough speed that the distance doesn't matter. Last year Hard Spun had the speed but he always met a better horse at the Classic distances. In a year like this one, Hard Spun might have won a couple of the T.C. races. Having said that now - many hugely speedy stamina-ridden monsters will suddenly appear and I'll have egg on my face. Oh well, it won't be the first time.
Today, for example, a filly who hasn't shown anything really extraordinary previously, produced an enormous run and pasted a full field of minor Derby 'contenders' or former contenders I should say.
There is one positive to all of this, which is that perhaps the horses aren't being pushed for the big speeds. I still recall the idiocy of the Summer Doldrums affair last year where training judgements were apparently made on a speed figure that was subsequently revised downward. And where is Summer Doldrums now?
I have to put War Pass and Pyro at the top of my current list for consistency, speed, and proven ability to run on the dirt. Pyro may be the better distance horse, but with War Pass's great speed, that may not be enough. In addition, I'm not completely sold on Pyro's jockey.
Otherwise, I'm waiting to see a few that might improve through the preps. like Court Vision, and those that might make the successful transition from artificial track with Colonel John my top pick of those. There are also a pack who have not yet gone the route and who could be good if they stretch out successfully. Georgie Boy looks possible, as does Saratoga Russell in that category, and the heart wants to cheer for a $4500 purchase in Bob Black Jack, but I suspect the cushion track played too great a role in the World Record. And then perhaps a foreign invader? Miner's Claim from Canada or the little Tom from Peru? Tomcito's times for his monster wins look pretty slow, but with wins by such large margins he may not have really been stretched. His works in the U.S. so far have looked reasonable. His last work was at a mile - an interesting approach that few these days seem to use. I don't know who his trainer of record is, though.
So I don't know what you wanted the bump for, Zinn, but here is my bump response for what it's worth.
