Birdstone

[reenci]

We are sending the mare Bud's Bandita for a date with Birdstone this week. Gainesway told us the fee will go to 20 or 30K next year, but they gave us a stands and nurse at this years fee this late in the year. Hope he stays hot.

so......200-300% higher???

[karenkarenn]

well look at whats hes produced!
A second in the Kentucky Oaks. A kentucky derby winner and Preakness placer.. HOLY COW that great. Yeah right on the 20,000 -30,000
I would pay that.

[madelyn]

It seems there are two different business models in the stallion business. There is the "rip 'em off while you can" hyped up model, where they introduce a new stallion at some massively egregious fee, like FuPeg, Smarty Jones, Point Given, etc. etc., market aggressively, play the buyback games to punch up the perception of the sales prices of the offspring in relation to the stallion's fee, collect it until the crops fail to live up to expectation, and then tank the fee down, having made all of their money in the first few years. The horse might even, at that point, get sold off to a regional or foreign breeding program. Then there is the "set this fee to get some mares and see how he does." I put Birdstone in the second category. After Street Sense won the Derby, Street Cry's fee was pushed waay up. Given the success of Mine That Bird it is not surprising in the least that they intend to raise the fee for next year. But the perception of his offspring at the sales may not change all that much - it didn't for Street Cry foals. Birdstone is not a big horse, and he doesn't, as a rule, throw that massive foal. His sales numbers to date don't even support a $10K fee - and you can get to his sire for $3500.

[oliverstoned]

It seems there are two different business models in the stallion business. There is the "rip 'em off while you can" hyped up model, where they introduce a new stallion at some massively egregious fee, like FuPeg, Smarty Jones, Point Given, etc. etc., market aggressively, play the buyback games to punch up the perception of the sales prices of the offspring in relation to the stallion's fee, collect it until the crops fail to live up to expectation, and then tank the fee down, having made all of their money in the first few years. The horse might even, at that point, get sold off to a regional or foreign breeding program. Then there is the "set this fee to get some mares and see how he does." I put Birdstone in the second category. After Street Sense won the Derby, Street Cry's fee was pushed waay up. Given the success of Mine That Bird it is not surprising in the least that they intend to raise the fee for next year. But the perception of his offspring at the sales may not change all that much - it didn't for Street Cry foals. Birdstone is not a big horse, and he doesn't, as a rule, throw that massive foal. His sales numbers to date don't even support a $10K fee - and you can get to his sire for $3500.

I've got no problem with that 2nd category you mention other than they tend to go up too much after some success ie. Officer, Include, Our Emblem. This just sets them up for a fall later on (right about when you sell your yearling from the pumped stud fee). Maybe its just me but if I'm forking over 10-15K for unproven studs I'm expecting some success, maybe not a Derby winner but some solid numbers.
Yes you can get to Grindstone for 3500 but he hasn't had a SW in years. Kind of like me likeing Put it Back but not being interested in Honor and Glory.

[Hotwalker]

Elusive Quality's fee went way up too after Smarty. But at least his value has been reinforced by Quality Road, Maryfield and some others. The opportunity is in using a stallion with the strong hunch he'll get hot before he actually does. Tafel was awed by Street Cry when he won the Stephen Foster and decided then to breed to him with the right mare.

[jellac]

oliverstoned said:

.... if I'm forking over 10-15K for unproven studs I'm expecting some success, ....

Of course you're hoping for some success but the key word in this statement is unproven. The 'unproven' stud - at any stud fee - is a gamble on the stallion's ability to pass on in the breeding shed what in his racing performance made him worth putting to the shed in the first place. His pedigree (illustrious ancestors' and their ability to pass on their greatness), his physical aspect: conformation and mechanics, the quality and quantity of mares he'll have supporting him early in his career AND the commitment level of his connections in supporting him beyond his first foal crop, at the sales and thru the training of his first two crops to race are all factors to take into consideration. This is because you're not just 'betting' the stud fee but also a productive year of your mare's life plus the carrying cost of your mare, then the cost of raising this foal to the point where you expect/plan on recouping your investment let alone making a profit whether that's in utero at a breeding stock sale within the year, as a weanling at a Mixed Sale a little over a year later, as a yearling at one of the sales two years after the breeding or 2+ years down the road at a 2YO in training sale or on the track. Even when the stallion's early foals/crops generate interest at the sales you have to hope that your foal is born healthy and vigorous, stays that way throughout his/her development, is correct of limb and has a free fluid action/way of going, inherits the best of physical attributes from dam and sire and perhaps that his or her dam's catalog page improves a bit along the way to have any hope of gaining the 'top sale price' numbers that are announced regularly but in no way represent the average for most stallions/sires.

That's a heck of a lot of "IFs" to be trying to control and invoke when contemplating a mating.

Presumabally the higher stud fees for unproven stallions represent individuals that excel in all the categories above: an imposing physical aspect, excellent mechanics and a powerful quick way of going with a top drawer MGSW race career to indicate that he has 'heart' as well as talent, an excellent pedigree top and bottom - especially looked for is a female family with a history of producing top sires, temperment that suggests his get may be readily trained as youngsters, and the support by his connections with broodmares of sufficient quality and quantity that you should have some meaningful feedback from his first crop/crops to hit the sales and the tracks. BIRDSTONE is a sire who was not physically imposing himself and he proved early on that he tended to pass on his lack of size so no help for his image/numbers at the sales there. He was a stallion/sire that did not come from a highly sought after, particularlly well thought of sire - albeit he was a Derby winner and a son of a Derby winner. Finally - being the winner of the Belmont race, alone of the three classics, doesn't necessarily cause breeders to flock to your door even if they believe you can pass on your stamina because unless there's some hope for early maturity and some speed in the mating contemplated the fear is you may be breeding a horse that is best suited for a length of course that hardly exists anymore in this country yet isn't very likely to be a turfer for the European venues. It is to BIRDSTONE's credit that he is showing he has the ability to pass on classic wining capabilities in spite of often passing on an unpreposessing size. His offspring have shown some real heart at the highest levels of competition in addition to raw talent of the sort desired. It is also to his connections' credit - they have supported him with the sort of mares and the ability to select for such mares via the attractiveness of their initially rather modest fee among those interested that gave him a chance to demonstrate he is the real deal as a sire capable of producing the legendary and much hoped for 'big horse' and to do so more than once in a blue moon.

[reenci]

all hail the next northern dancer !!!!!!!!!!!

[jagger]

Birdstone is getting 10k per mare today..any guesses what it will be next year? When was the last time, if ever, that one sire had two Classic winners in the same year? He'll probably get a good dose of Storm Cat mares and with Fappiano on the top, I would not hesitate to bring Mr. P line mares to him either. The next time you see Birdstone, he will have on shades.

[reenci]

Birdstone is getting 10k per mare today..any guesses what it will be next year? When was the last time, if ever, that one sire had two Classic winners in the same year? He'll probably get a good dose of Storm Cat mares and with Fappiano on the top, I would not hesitate to bring Mr. P line mares to him either. The next time you see Birdstone, he will have on shades.

when i contacted the farm recently they told me there going to take a wait and see attitude to see what his offspring do this summer look at how the economy is.......my guess is 20-30k.

[bdw0617]

it depends. alot can happen

if MTB or summer bird wins the travers - 50k

if MTB or summer bird wins the travers or a major summer classic like the haskell, and a breeders cup race - 65k

If MTB or summer bird wins the travers or a major summer race, and 1-2 2YO's jump up and show they are foreal again, and MTB or summer bird recks hevoc in a breeders cup race - all hell breaks loose. maybe 80k-100k. he literarly jumps into a different catorogy or sires.


As is- 35k

[jagger]

Good assessment, bdw. I don't know what his babies average but I was only able to see a few that sold for 8 figures....mostly very low 5's. Most of his foals sold at the end of the September sale. Again, I wish I had one of them....or more.

[LB]

Good assessment, bdw. I don't know what his babies average but I was only able to see a few that sold for 8 figures....mostly very low 5's. Most of his foals sold at the end of the September sale. Again, I wish I had one of them....or more.

A summary of his auction results for 2008 and 2009 with links to previous years can be found at the bottom of this page: http://www.bloodhorse.com/stallion-regi ... rigin=link

[zinn21]

I think 35k is tops for 2010. My bet is 25k.

[Bedouwia]

This is fun speculation.... but it all assumes that he stays where he is (which I expect will be the case). Yet, I cannot help but wonder how long it is before some Sheikh makes an offer?

Bedouwia

[bdw0617]

gainsway / mary lou dont' strike me as the type to sell a birdstone.

a successful sire for gainesway means more than the dollars that the sheikh can offer. it's in their best interest to keep good sires on the grounds. when they get a new sire in you give them the benefit of the doubt, they know how to spot a good up and coming sire.