7 Furlongs. SnVicnte-G2 SAN VICENTE S.. Grade II.

[Whirlaway]

Should be a good one. Indian Winter to Win.

[Jorge]

The Factor will be reunited again with his favorite jockey. If his "favorite jockey" means the rider with the best ability to restrain him during the first part of the race plus the guy with the ability to make him come-from-behind then his chances (the Factor) are very good. If not, then expect a so-so performance. If he wins expect a well-fought but easy win. If he loses then cross your fingers he avoids being well beaten. In synthesis, The Factor is both a very talented unique specimen, and a big question mark. Makes me remember Breeders Cup Juvenile tsunami-style winner Arazi. Wish him the best.

[bdw0617]

I think the factor will win, with sway away running a good 2nd. Sway away wants 2 turns, but will not embrass himself today, but 7F is right up the factor's alley.

[Bast]

Interesting that Rasper, a foal of 1952 who apparently left only 35 foals, turns up on the pedigrees of 3 of the San Vicente entries.

[bdw0617]

I told you that sway away is a freaking race horse. horse is begging for 9F

[Whirlaway]

Nice picks.

I got a chance to watch that race. I'd read about The Factor but hadn't seen him. When I first saw him, he was the one - no doubt. He looked like one of them horses in one of those Troye paintings; I had to bet him! Blew out of the gate, set his head down, pinned his ears back and ran off. Nice runner and fun to watch.

[Jorge]

The Factor will be reunited again with his favorite jockey. If his "favorite jockey" means the rider with the best ability to restrain him during the first part of the race plus the guy with the ability to make him come-from-behind then his chances (the Factor) are very good. If not, then expect a so-so performance. If he wins expect a well-fought but easy win. If he loses then cross your fingers he avoids being well beaten. In synthesis, The Factor is both a very talented unique specimen, and a big question mark. Makes me remember Breeders Cup Juvenile tsunami-style winner Arazi. Wish him the best.

Wow, I was not expecting The Factor to win clicking all the fractionals and still resisting a late charge. I thought that was the best way for him to lose yet he won anyway. What else can we say! He is very talented. But well, so much for winning in that kind of fashion. He needs to be rated unless he represents a new kind of paradigm. Please preserve this unique kind of horse for future generations.

[bdw0617]

I think you saw two of the best horses in te country go toe to toe.

I normally don't jump on late running closers band wagons, but when you are chasing the factor, i will cut a horse slack. that's a freaking fast race horse lol. Sway Away wins 8 out of 10 of those races against any other grade 2 field. He was literary gobbling up ground.

With that said.. I think the factor is going to surprise some people with how far he will run. he showed me something. He fights for it. He has some hard spun in him IMHO. He had absolutely no reason to hold off sway away and he did, with a tad bit left in the tank at that.

I don't know if he will get 10F.. but let me put it this way, that's not a horse you want shaking lose on the first saturday in may thinking he's going to come back to the field I will tell you that, horse is tons better than conveyance, and I loved me some conveyance.

[bdw0617]

of all the hoopla going on this week, I really don't think people, understand just how impressive the factor's race was this weekend. you relaly have to tip your hat. Pound for pound I think he's the best 3YO in the country if the derby wasn't in may and we were just judging talent.

The horse just, I mean, put away 2 really really good 3yO's like they were cheap speed, then, held off a horse that was closing like a night club at last call, and looked like he had something in the tank. He's not only fast, he has heart. My only thing, is like hard spun and some others, he HAS to have the lead to be effective. But he is so good, that you really don't want to run with him becuase you can ruin your horse.

It's why I really respect Larry Jones so much his training job on hard spun was marvelous.. most trainers would have ruined hard spun by trying to get him to rate all summer, taking away the one thing that made him great, his speed. Let the horse run.

[dublino]

The Derby is in May and its not over 7f - just an FYI

[TJ]

of all the hoopla going on this week, I really don't think people, understand just how impressive the factor's race was this weekend. you relaly have to tip your hat. Pound for pound I think he's the best 3YO in the country if the derby wasn't in may and we were just judging talent.

The horse just, I mean, put away 2 really really good 3yO's like they were cheap speed, then, held off a horse that was closing like a night club at last call, and looked like he had something in the tank. He's not only fast, he has heart. My only thing, is like hard spun and some others, he HAS to have the lead to be effective. But he is so good, that you really don't want to run with him becuase you can ruin your horse.

It's why I really respect Larry Jones so much his training job on hard spun was marvelous.. most trainers would have ruined hard spun by trying to get him to rate all summer, taking away the one thing that made him great, his speed. Let the horse run.

Hi bdw,
I believe The Factor is a real good horse, but limited in what he can do and at what track he will be able to bully his opposition on the front end. When you consider his blistering speed and the fact he is running over not only the quickest race track in America, but the single most speed biased track there ever was.....that performance pales quickly in my eyes. The Factor won driving, getting his last 1/8th on heart and determination to hang on running his last 1/8th in a pedestrian 13 seconds. The other horse you mention, Sway Away finished his last 1/8th in 12.2.....over that track, to finish in 12.2 is good at other tracks, but far from gobbling up ground especially since he did no running early. An 8,000 claimer....Flashman's Pride ran his last 1/8th in 12 seconds flat in route to his 6 furlong win in 1:09.3 in Sunday's 3rd race at SA.
Reading between the lines, Baffert know's this is not a Derby horse....the last noted speed ball to run in the Derby was Shecky Greene who set the pace in Secretariat's 1973 derby. Baffert and the owner's have stated they won't push this horse to run in the Derby and Baffert wants to increase this horses distance in small increments. Don't expect this horse to run in the Derby.....but if he does, his fate will most likely be the same as Shecky Greene's.....who was voted champion sprinter in 1973 after running 6th in the '73 derby. TJ

[zinn21]

TJ wrote:

Hi bdw,
I believe The Factor is a real good horse, but limited in what he can do and at what track he will be able to bully his opposition on the front end. When you consider his blistering speed and the fact he is running over not only the quickest race track in America, but the single most speed biased track there ever was.....that performance pales quickly in my eyes. The Factor won driving, getting his last 1/8th on heart and determination to hang on running his last 1/8th in a pedestrian 13 seconds. The other horse you mention, Sway Away finished his last 1/8th in 12.2.....over that track, to finish in 12.2 is good at other tracks, but far from gobbling up ground especially since he did no running early. An 8,000 claimer....Flashman's Pride ran his last 1/8th in 12 seconds flat in route to his 6 furlong win in 1:09.3 in Sunday's 3rd race at SA.
Reading between the lines, Baffert know's this is not a Derby horse....the last noted speed ball to run in the Derby was Shecky Greene who set the pace in Secretariat's 1973 derby. Baffert and the owner's have stated they won't push this horse to run in the Derby and Baffert wants to increase this horses distance in small increments. Don't expect this horse to run in the Derby.....but if he does, his fate will most likely be the same as Shecky Greene's.....who was voted champion sprinter in 1973 after running 6th in the '73 derby. TJ

Your analysis is sound but there are exceptions to the rule. I've been a Sway Away fan since seeing him break his maiden at P Town. I love the Afleet Alex's. The Factor is all that you stated but he may be a freak and carry his speed anywhere regardless. We shall see..

[Jorge]

The way this horse is running and by the way Baffert is referring to him,
this horse is mirroring the trajectory followed by Holy Bull during his consagratory sophomore season ----except that I visualize The Factor skipping the Derby.

[TJ]

TJ wrote:

Hi bdw,
I believe The Factor is a real good horse, but limited in what he can do and at what track he will be able to bully his opposition on the front end. When you consider his blistering speed and the fact he is running over not only the quickest race track in America, but the single most speed biased track there ever was.....that performance pales quickly in my eyes. The Factor won driving, getting his last 1/8th on heart and determination to hang on running his last 1/8th in a pedestrian 13 seconds. The other horse you mention, Sway Away finished his last 1/8th in 12.2.....over that track, to finish in 12.2 is good at other tracks, but far from gobbling up ground especially since he did no running early. An 8,000 claimer....Flashman's Pride ran his last 1/8th in 12 seconds flat in route to his 6 furlong win in 1:09.3 in Sunday's 3rd race at SA.
Reading between the lines, Baffert know's this is not a Derby horse....the last noted speed ball to run in the Derby was Shecky Greene who set the pace in Secretariat's 1973 derby. Baffert and the owner's have stated they won't push this horse to run in the Derby and Baffert wants to increase this horses distance in small increments. Don't expect this horse to run in the Derby.....but if he does, his fate will most likely be the same as Shecky Greene's.....who was voted champion sprinter in 1973 after running 6th in the '73 derby. TJ

Your analysis is sound but there are exceptions to the rule. I've been a Sway Away fan since seeing him break his maiden at P Town. I love the Afleet Alex's. The Factor is all that you stated but he may be a freak and carry his speed anywhere regardless. We shall see..

Hi Z,
I have no doubt The Factor will carry his speed over similar speed biased race tracks in the east, I just don't see him being able to carry that speed going 1 1/4 miles at CD. I could see Baffert give the Preakness a try as that is also a speed favoring track. The underlying problem I see is the speed bias over the SA track and the hard and fast surface. Horses that make all their Derby preperation over that track will find they will tire much sooner than they would running over the SA track. By the same token, confirmed closer's will get an edge when they leave tha SA track and run over one less biased to speed horses. Although I do believe the west coast 3YO's, whose connections are serious about winning the Derby, will have to ship a couple weeks in advance and work once or twice at CD. TJ

[TJ]

Seems like Baffert is looking for another speed biased race track....Sunland Park, to introduce The Factor to a two-turn race. Baffert said "Speed is gold there" meaning Sunland Park. TJ
http://www.drf.com/news/factor-may-try- ... land-derby