Question for Teletimer "Connoisseurs"

[Jorge]

I have the following question for all of you

If you have a super sprinter horse who is capable of clicking the following fractionals in a 10 furlongs race:

(Dash #1)
First furlong in :20 flat ------ (cumulative per fractional :20 flat)
Second furlong in :42 flat --- (cumulative per fractional :22 flat)
Third furlong in 1:06 flat ----- (cumulative per fractional: 24 flat)
Fourth furlong in 1:32 flat --- (cumulative per fractional: 26 flat)
Fifth furlong in 2:00 flat ----- (cumulative per fractional: 28 flat)

and you would try to race him clicking those very same fractionals but in opposite order, that is

(Dash #2)
First furlong in :28 flat ------ (cumulative per fractional :28 flat)
Second furlong in :54 flat --- (cumulative per fractional :26 flat)
Third furlong in 1:18 flat ----- (cumulative per fractional: 24 flat)
Fourth furlong in 1:40 flat --- (cumulative per fractional: 22 flat)
Fifth furlong in 2:00 flat ----- (cumulative per fractional: 20 flat)

How could the jockey calculate the real final time he can achieve in Dash #2, given the fact that now it seems imposible for this horse to click :22 flat and :20 flat during the last couple of furlongs of the race since now he is dealing with cumulative fatigue not encountered when he was racing in Dash #1?

Is there any developed formula for calculating times when running in opposite order?

For the purposes of this analysis the horse will always be running in lane number one and free of any traffic in both races.

[Jorge]

Where are the thinking cap analytical enthusiasts? We need them all!

[Jessi P]

Just an observation here but you are taking the horse out of its natural running style. A horse who can go :20 flat is not likely to be able to throw that :20 at the end of 10 furlongs. They arent machines. And I dont know of any except a super horse who can go :20 and carry it out over that distance even with softening fractions like that. Will be interesting to see what others think.

[Brogan]

Just another observation...that horse would never make it on a race track....UNLESS you mean quarter miles instead of furlongs.

[Bast]

The winning time of the Arc de Triomphe continues to decrease. Does anyone know if there are fractional times available for past runnings?

[Jorge]

Lets not focus in the :20 flat fractional. The key element here is that there is a slower difference of 2 seconds per fractional and I am trying to determine if there is a formula for trying to duplicate these fractionals in reverse order, WHILE APPLYING A MARGIN OF ERROR TO COMPENSATE (IN TIME) THE OBVIOUS EFFECT THAT THE RIGORS OF RUNNING THE FIRST MILE INITIALLY WOULD EXERT ON THE LAST FRACTIONAL.
I AM LOOKING FOR A FORMULA FOR THAT MARGIN OF ERROR.

[endspurt stables]

You might check the fractions of the 73 Belmont race. Should jockeys wear a radio and be in constant contact with their trainers during a race. You know like nascar drivers.

Okay J. Leparoux I know you can't see Flashpoint he's about 30 in front kick Dialed In a little bit. Flashpoint is done Soldat backing up also. Follow Stay Thirsty he is making his move.

( AND DOWN THE STRETCH THE COME )

Give him two wips on the right and one on the left. swing to the inside J. Leparoux you got it. Yes!!

[Jorge]

You might check the fractions of the 73 Belmont race. Should jockeys wear a radio and be in constant contact with their trainers during a race. You know like nascar drivers.

Okay J. Leparoux I know you can't see Flashpoint he's about 30 in front kick Dialed In a little bit. Flashpoint is done Soldat backing up also. Follow Stay Thirsty he is making his move.

( AND DOWN THE STRETCH THE COME )

Give him two wips on the right and one on the left. swing to the inside J. Leparoux you got it. Yes!!

[Jorge]

Well, in the absence of any suggestion, let me pose this alternative:

(Dash #3)
First furlong in :28 flat ------ (cumulative per fractional :28 flat)
Second furlong in :54 flat --- (cumulative per fractional :26 flat)
Third furlong in 1:18 flat ----- (cumulative per fractional: 24 flat)

Are the times registered during the first 3 fractionals shown above attainable and relaxed enough as to try to concentrate on predicting the time during the last two fractionals?

Your suggestions:

Fourth furlong in ?????? --- (cumulative per fractional: ????)
Fifth furlong in ????? ----- (cumulative per fractional: ????)

[Georgerz]

As someone noted above, it is not fourlongs, it's 1/4 of a mile. One furlong is run between 10 and 14 seconds.

[Jorge]

WORDING CORRECTION:

(Dash #1)
[1st.] Initial 2 furlongs in :20 flat ------ (cumulative per fractional :20 flat)
[2nd.] Next 2 furlongs in :42 flat --- (cumulative per fractional :22 flat)
[3rd.] Next 2 furlongs in 1:06 flat ----- (cumulative per fractional: 24 flat)
[4th.] Next 2 furlongs in 1:32 flat --- (cumulative per fractional: 26 flat)
[5th.] Next 2 furlongs in 2:00 flat ----- (cumulative per fractional: 28 flat)

(Dash #2)
[1st.] Initial 2 furlongs in :28 flat ------ (cumulative per fractional :28 flat)
[2nd.] Next 2 furlongs in :54 flat --- (cumulative per fractional :26 flat)
[3rd.] Next 2 furlongs in 1:18 flat ----- (cumulative per fractional: 24 flat)
[4th.] Next 2 furlongs in 1:40 flat --- (cumulative per fractional: 22 flat)
[5th.] Next 2 furlongs in 2:00 flat ----- (cumulative per fractional: 20 flat)

How could the jockey calculate the real final time he can achieve in Dash #2, given the fact that now it seems imposible for this horse to click :22 flat and :20 flat during the last 2 combos of 2 furlongs of the race since now he is dealing with cumulative fatigue not encountered when he was racing in Dash #1?

Is there any developed formula for calculating times when running in opposite order?

For the purposes of this analysis the horse will always be running in lane number one and free of any traffic in both races.

Georgerz,

Thank you very much for the very pertinent correction. You are absolutely right. Let's correct the erroneous wording in both Dash # 1 and Dash # 2 and let's add a Dash # 3 for your possible answers:

(Dash #3)
[1st.] Initial 2 furlongs in :28 flat ------ (cumulative per fractional :28 flat)
[2nd.] Next 2 furlongs in :54 flat --- (cumulative per fractional :26 flat)
[3rd.] Next 2 furlongs in 1:18 flat ----- (cumulative per fractional: 24 flat)

Are the times registered during the first 3 fractionals shown above attainable and relaxed enough as to try to concentrate on predicting the time during the last two fractionals?

Your suggestions:

[4th.] Next 2 furlongs in ?????? --- (cumulative per fractional: ????)
[5th.] Next 2 furlongs in ????? ----- (cumulative per fractional: ????)

Please feel free to modify the data in Dash #3 according to your theoretical answer.

Thanks to all of you!