The Florida Derby

[TJ]

A few changed from the probable's list, but here are the official entries. The luck of the draw was with Shanghai Bobby drawing the golden rail. TJ
1. Shanghai Bobby (Rosie Napravnik)
2. Pick of the Litter (Jesus Castanon)
3. Itsmyluckyday (Elvis Trujillo)
4. Pontiff (Alan Garcia)
5. Frac Daddy (Corey Lanerie)
6. Orb (John Velazquez)
7. Indy’s Illusion (Rajiv Maragh)
8. Merit Man (Kent Desormeaux)
9. Are You Kidding Me (Jose Lezcano)
10. Narvaez (Paco Lopez)

[dublino]

Will be interesting to see hiw Shanghai Bobby copes with the distance, can't see him getting it but will eat some of that crow? you have on ice if he does.

[TJ]

Will be interesting to see hiw Shanghai Bobby copes with the distance, can't see him getting it but will eat some of that crow? you have on ice if he does.

Hi Dub,
If you've never eaten crow when it comes to predicting winner's you're either a liar or a multi-millionaire:>). You are invited to Florida to dine on crow with me right after the Derby:>) Bobby has heart and courage and the will to win. He will be fully tested for distance ability Saturday.....the inside is a good place to be going a mile and an eight at Gulfsteam....but in his case, he could be pressed from the outside and if he is used too much early, it will hurt his chances to go the distance. This is a race the rider's will play a big role in. TJ

[TJ]

Here's the PP's. TJ

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewe ... 2013-03-30

[Whirlaway]

Will be interesting to see hiw Shanghai Bobby copes with the distance, can't see him getting it but will eat some of that crow? you have on ice if he does.

Hi Dub,
If you've never eaten crow when it comes to predicting winner's you're either a liar or a multi-millionaire:>). You are invited to Florida to dine on crow with me right after the Derby:>) Bobby has heart and courage and the will to win. He will be fully tested for distance ability Saturday.....the inside is a good place to be going a mile and an eight at Gulfsteam....but in his case, he could be pressed from the outside and if he is used too much early, it will hurt his chances to go the distance. This is a race the rider's will play a big role in. TJ

Considering the average handicapping success rate is about 20%, most handicappers have dined on Crow many a times.

I for one have had Crow in many different forms: fried Crow, baked Crow, raw Crow (ala Bear Grills), barbecued Crow, Crow soup, Crow on the barbie, Crow souffle, Crow pie, but best of all and the creme de la crem of Crow is Blanco del la Crow - white Crow shipped in from Alaska. This type of Crow is reserved for G1 races only. My understanding of the reason this Crow is white is because of natural selection, kinda like the white hare found up there north in Alaska. Having eaten Blanco de la Crow many a times, I can attest to its flavor - tastes like chicken with a hint of scallops. That's what I said, don't know either, but doesn't taste that bad, a bit chewey. The good thing about eatin' some Crow is, take for example you pick a horse, not four or five horses, but one horse and he wins, you don't have to eat Crow. Say your horse comes in second, you only have to eat half a Crow and say your horse comes in third, you only have to eat Crow legs. Havin' eaten many a Crow legs, I can attest to their flavor, akin to eatin' frog legs, but tastes like gator. Not bad eatin' I must say so myself.

Here is to those . . . . who will be eatin' some Blanco de la Crow when Shanghai runs off in the Florida!

[TJ]

Will be interesting to see hiw Shanghai Bobby copes with the distance, can't see him getting it but will eat some of that crow? you have on ice if he does.

Hi Dub,
If you've never eaten crow when it comes to predicting winner's you're either a liar or a multi-millionaire:>). You are invited to Florida to dine on crow with me right after the Derby:>) Bobby has heart and courage and the will to win. He will be fully tested for distance ability Saturday.....the inside is a good place to be going a mile and an eight at Gulfsteam....but in his case, he could be pressed from the outside and if he is used too much early, it will hurt his chances to go the distance. This is a race the rider's will play a big role in. TJ

Considering the average handicapping success rate is about 20%, most handicappers have dined on Crow many a times.

I for one have had Crow in many different forms: fried Crow, baked Crow, raw Crow (ala Bear Grills), barbecued Crow, Crow soup, Crow on the barbie, Crow souffle, Crow pie, but best of all and the creme de la crem of Crow is Blanco del la Crow - white Crow shipped in from Alaska. This type of Crow is reserved for G1 races only. My understanding of the reason this Crow is white is because of natural selection, kinda like the white hare found up there north in Alaska. Having eaten Blanco de la Crow many a times, I can attest to its flavor - tastes like chicken with a hint of scallops. That's what I said, don't know either, but doesn't taste that bad, a bit chewey. The good thing about eatin' some Crow is, take for example you pick a horse, not four or five horses, but one horse and he wins, you don't have to eat Crow. Say your horse comes in second, you only have to eat half a Crow and say your horse comes in third, you only have to eat Crow legs. Havin' eaten many a Crow legs, I can attest to their flavor, akin to eatin' frog legs, but tastes like gator. Not bad eatin' I must say so myself.

Here is to those . . . . who will be eatin' some Blanco de la Crow when Shanghai runs off in the Florida!

Hi Whirl,
I prefer my Crow baked in a pie:>) I wish Shanghai luck in the Florida Derby and will look into the pace scenario closely when I handicap the race. A quick look shows 3-4 horses capable of pressing outside of him....that means he can either go or sit back. If he sits back they will all come over in front of him...if he doesn't he will be running faster than need be to go 1 1/8th miles. This is why it will be a jockey's race and pace will play an important part in the outcome.....don't forget he has a bullseye on his back being the 2YO champ. TJ

[Whirlaway]

No doubt, pace wins the race.

Shanghai, his connections and fans appreciate your nod of good luck.

~

I took a closer than usual look at all of the past performances of Shanghai and found an interesting pattern. Almost all of his quarter mile fractions are run in 24 seconds. Usually, most of em' run fast early / slow late or slow early / fast late. Shanghai appears to be some kind of a strange one. He runs all of his fractions at the same speed - 24 seconds. All Shanghai need do is sit tight on 24 and change and most off the rest of em' will likely fade because most of em' can't match that pace. As you've written he has the golden rail which from my understanding is an advantage at Gulfstream, but can also be a disadvantage as he is likely to be pinched and crowded - that pressure produces stress draining energy needed come the stretch run. I figure he has the class and has shown the ability to handle the clutch.

A few other notes regarding Shanghai. As we've seen, most of the two-year-old good ones had given up the ghost: Overanalyze, Delhomme, Normand Invasion and surely a few others. Of course this is common with this speedster of a thoroughbed we have nowadays, the give all they've got as a two-year-old only to fade into oblivion as a three-year-old. Different for Shanghai. He rested well, came back in the Holy Bull and ran a track record first time out. The Holy Bull demonstrated he ain't like the rest of em', this guy means business and they'll have their hands full come the Florida. I think Itsmyluckyday will be tough, but I figure he ran his best last out and that mile workout looked a bit slow. Orb looks tough and I believe he possesses double digit representation in the Brilliant, Intermediate and Classic categories, that is rare and I've seen those types light the track up, but as demonstrated in his last, he needs a hot pace up front to win, he might get it in this one, but I figure he comes up short.

I've been a waitin' for this one like no other.

Gotta beat the Champ to be the Champ - go get em' Shanghai!

Wish I was in Florida for the Florida Derby!

Lovin' the Derby Trail.

[Cree]

Itsmyluckyday, Orb, and Pick of the Litter.

[ratherrapid]

RR pick = Shanhai Bobby.

[Bill from WA]

Orb
Frac Daddy
Shanghai Bobby
Pontiff

[TJ]

I tried to handicap this race and found it both confusing and disillusioning. There is new speed that can hurt the chances of both Shanghai Bobby and Itsmyluckyday. The big three...Shanghai Bobby, Itsmyluckyday and Orb all seem to be easy enough to come up with...but, there's something about each of them that bother's me. Primarily the way I see the race unfolding and whether they are capable of going 1 1/8th miles while keeping their eyes on more than just each other. Of these three, I think Orb would be best suited under this scenario at this distance, yet his finishing time last out wasn't very impressive and he beat a horse who blew his suspensory, if not for that, I doubt Orb would have gone by him. The other two (Bobby and Lucky) I'm not certain they can go the distance (off such a layoff), while being pressed by a sprinter type speed horse stretching out (Merit Man) and/or a front running distance type (Frac Daddy) who worked 5/8ths in 58 seconds? So I'm going to rely on the actual outcome of this race concerning any Derby prospect changes that might come out of the Florida Derby. I'm not so sure anymore, if there even is a legitimate Derby prospect in this field? I could be way off about that statement, but it won't cost me much and that's what it's all about in the Handicapping section:>) I will make small exacta plays with Indy's Illusion and Narvaez on top over a few of the other key horses in hopes of catching a big exacta. TJ

[TJ]

Good news for Shanghai Bobby fans...so far there have been two 1 1/8th mile stakes races on the card...both won by Pletcher and Johnny V. This last one, Dreaming Of Julia was in the same boat as Shanghai Bobby. Not really considered able to go the 1 1/8th distance. She did it in style and ran a pretty fast time. Both 1 1/8th stake winners were right there with the pace throughout and ran away and hid from decent competition. There is a definate speed bias going on here at 1 1/8th miles and if Dreaming of Julia won at this distance that easily....Shanghai Bobby should also get the job done. There is one horse they will allow to go to the lead today and no one will bother him....Merit Man. He could get brave on the lead if they don't get to him by the 1/2 mile pole.....but if Rosie makes the same move JV just did with Dreaming of Julia....the lights should be out and Shanghai will be heading to the Derby. TJ

[jagger]

Merit Man is a miler at best. He may spoil the race though if someone wants to go with him early. SB is a Derby horse but so are several others in the field. Looking forward to the race.

[TJ]

Orb get's the job done...Shanghai didn't run a lick. Merit Man and Naveaz ran pretty good...slow time once again, yet Orb manages to do what he has to to win. As I said....this isn't the best Florida Derby field I've seen. Orb and Itsmyluckyday stamped their ticket to CD. I still wonder if Shug will go to KY? TJ

[TJ]

Itsmyluckyday, Orb, and Pick of the Litter.

Good going Cree, 1,2 works:>) TJ