My picks:
1. California Chrome
2. Chitu
3. Ride on Curlin
Who do you like?
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murphysmom
- 2yo Maiden
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- Location: Dimondale, MI
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Re: Who do you like?
LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) – There’s no questioning the ability of D. Wayne Lukas to train a winner of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness or Belmont Stakes.
His horses have won the Derby four times, the Preakness six times and four Belmonts. Nobody has done it better than Lukas and his 14 Triple Crown wins.
Lukas will not saddle a horse in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. He will, however, make an appearance at the betting windows. As promised Tuesday, I convinced Lukas to share his Derby betting strategy.
His preferred wager is a seven-horse superfecta.
Translation: If any four members in Lukas’s group finish 1-2-3-4 in the Derby, it’s a winning ticket. But everybody in the top four has to be in this group.
It’s not an inexpensive wager. It’s out of my budget. You’ll likely need to recruit a syndicate to make your investment. A $1 seven-horse superfecta box is an $840 bet.
Lukas said that he picked the top four last year – Orb, Golden Soul, Revolutionary, Normandy Invasion. The $1 superfecta paid $28,542, primarily because Golden Soul was a major longshot.
Lukas insisted that a seven-horse superfecta box is the only wager that he makes in Triple Crown and Breeders’ Cup races.
"You can draw a line through a lot of these horses," Lukas said. "There are a few that are easy to eliminate."
Enough delay. Here are Lukas’s seven horses (listed in order of their post position draw, not in preference of how he believes they will run).
1. Danza, winner of the Arkansas Derby who has only started four times.
2. California Chrome, the likely favorite who has rolled in his last four races.
3. Samraat, unbeaten in his first five starts before finishing second in the Wood Memorial.
4. Medal Count, the backside buzz horse who will be racing for the third time in 29 days.
5. Tapiture, coming off a fourth-place finish in the Arkansas Derby.
6. Ride On Curlin, has not won since Jan. 12 but should benefit from jockey Calvin Borel.
7. Wicked Strong, winner of the Wood Memorial, only his second win in six starts.
There is your D. Wayne Lukas 2014 Kentucky Derby wager. Proceed with care.
Copyright 2014 WDRB News. All Rights Reserved.
His horses have won the Derby four times, the Preakness six times and four Belmonts. Nobody has done it better than Lukas and his 14 Triple Crown wins.
Lukas will not saddle a horse in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. He will, however, make an appearance at the betting windows. As promised Tuesday, I convinced Lukas to share his Derby betting strategy.
His preferred wager is a seven-horse superfecta.
Translation: If any four members in Lukas’s group finish 1-2-3-4 in the Derby, it’s a winning ticket. But everybody in the top four has to be in this group.
It’s not an inexpensive wager. It’s out of my budget. You’ll likely need to recruit a syndicate to make your investment. A $1 seven-horse superfecta box is an $840 bet.
Lukas said that he picked the top four last year – Orb, Golden Soul, Revolutionary, Normandy Invasion. The $1 superfecta paid $28,542, primarily because Golden Soul was a major longshot.
Lukas insisted that a seven-horse superfecta box is the only wager that he makes in Triple Crown and Breeders’ Cup races.
"You can draw a line through a lot of these horses," Lukas said. "There are a few that are easy to eliminate."
Enough delay. Here are Lukas’s seven horses (listed in order of their post position draw, not in preference of how he believes they will run).
1. Danza, winner of the Arkansas Derby who has only started four times.
2. California Chrome, the likely favorite who has rolled in his last four races.
3. Samraat, unbeaten in his first five starts before finishing second in the Wood Memorial.
4. Medal Count, the backside buzz horse who will be racing for the third time in 29 days.
5. Tapiture, coming off a fourth-place finish in the Arkansas Derby.
6. Ride On Curlin, has not won since Jan. 12 but should benefit from jockey Calvin Borel.
7. Wicked Strong, winner of the Wood Memorial, only his second win in six starts.
There is your D. Wayne Lukas 2014 Kentucky Derby wager. Proceed with care.
Copyright 2014 WDRB News. All Rights Reserved.
Give the Pope and the King of England a horse and in thirty days, they'll be stealing halters.
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Bill from WA
- Breeder's Cup Contender
- Posts: 1936
- Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:20 am
- Location: Mountlake Terrace, WA
Re: Who do you like?
Here's my final picks.
Oaks/Derby Double: 11/13 to 5/14
California Chrome to win.
Superfecta Wheel: 5 over 14, 20 over 3,14,17,19, 20
over 3,14,17, 19, 20.
Good luck to all.
Bill
Oaks/Derby Double: 11/13 to 5/14
California Chrome to win.
Superfecta Wheel: 5 over 14, 20 over 3,14,17,19, 20
over 3,14,17, 19, 20.
Good luck to all.
Bill
Hold fast to dreams, for if dreams die, life is like a broken winged bird that cannot fly.
Langston Hughes
Langston Hughes
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da hossman
- Allowance Winner
- Posts: 412
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 7:08 am
- Location: KY
Re: Who do you like?
I am playing California Chrome, Danza & Uncle Sigh in straight win tickets. I will also play them on top of exacta and tri tickets with themselves, Vicar's In Trouble, Samraat, Candy Boy, Ride On Curlin & Wicked Strong.
The best bet of the day may be the 50 cent pick 4 spanning races 8,9,10 & 11 (Derby). There is an easy single with Wise Dan, a 2 or 3 horse play in the sprint, etc. Should be a huge pool!
Good luck to everyone!
The best bet of the day may be the 50 cent pick 4 spanning races 8,9,10 & 11 (Derby). There is an easy single with Wise Dan, a 2 or 3 horse play in the sprint, etc. Should be a huge pool!
Good luck to everyone!
A difference of opinion is what makes horse racing and missionaries.
Will Rogers
Will Rogers
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Patuxet
- Grade III Winner
- Posts: 1150
- Joined: Fri Dec 01, 2006 10:36 pm
- Location: New England & Florida
Re: Who do you like?
Trifecta Box: Dance With Fate (12), Medal Count (14) and Wicked Strong (20).
For the sake of the sport I secretly hope California Chrome turns out to be a freak of nature and wins the Triple Crown.
Best of racing luck to everyone.
Allison
When it came time to make the bet I chickened out and added Chrome to the mix.
For the sake of the sport I secretly hope California Chrome turns out to be a freak of nature and wins the Triple Crown.
Best of racing luck to everyone.
Allison
When it came time to make the bet I chickened out and added Chrome to the mix.
Last edited by Patuxet on Sat May 03, 2014 11:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
"He is pure air and fire and the dull elements of earth and water never appear in him; he is indeed a horse ..." Wm. Shakespeare - Henry V
Re: Who do you like?
This may be a year I sit out making a bet on the derby.
Using my version of Bill from WA modern conduit mares, I have come up with five qualifiers and four partial qualifiers.
Qualifiers:
Uncle Sigh
Vinceremos
Dance with Fate
Commanding Curve
Ride on Curlin
Partial Qualifiers
California Chrome
Samraat
We Miss Artie
General A Rod
All the full qualifiers are pretty much outsiders.
Candy Boy was just a tick off on the stamina section to qualify, however having Gary Stevens aboard could move him up a notch.
Shergar
Using my version of Bill from WA modern conduit mares, I have come up with five qualifiers and four partial qualifiers.
Qualifiers:
Uncle Sigh
Vinceremos
Dance with Fate
Commanding Curve
Ride on Curlin
Partial Qualifiers
California Chrome
Samraat
We Miss Artie
General A Rod
All the full qualifiers are pretty much outsiders.
Candy Boy was just a tick off on the stamina section to qualify, however having Gary Stevens aboard could move him up a notch.
Shergar
Re: Who do you like?
I played
CC on top for 1st or second, for second third and fourth Candy Boy Danza and Medal Count. The last three may vary.
Sure to see the money thrown away.
CC on top for 1st or second, for second third and fourth Candy Boy Danza and Medal Count. The last three may vary.
Sure to see the money thrown away.
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Georgerz
- Breeder's Cup Contender
- Posts: 1754
- Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 3:13 pm
- Location: Maple Valley, Washington
Re: Who do you like?
California Chrome, Tapiture, Medal Count, Wicked Strong are my picks. CC first, the others in no particular order.
Re: Who do you like?
Ride on Curlin for the win. Medal Count, Candy Boy, California Chrome, Wicked Strong, General A Rod for exotics.
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ratherrapid
- Grade II Winner
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Re: Who do you like?
Chrome
Samaraat
Vinceramos
Look out for Chitu.
Sentimental favorite: Uncle Sigh
Samaraat
Vinceramos
Look out for Chitu.
Sentimental favorite: Uncle Sigh
Re: Who do you like?
California Chrome
Danza
Wicked Strong
under:
Ride On Curlin
Intense Holiday
Danza
Wicked Strong
under:
Ride On Curlin
Intense Holiday
Re: Who do you like?
Congrats, TJ...I think you came the closest!!! 
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Bill from WA
- Breeder's Cup Contender
- Posts: 1936
- Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:20 am
- Location: Mountlake Terrace, WA
Re: Who do you like?
I underestimted Danza, I didn't think he would fire. I love his sire (Street Boss), but I thought the 10 furlongs would be a little out of his reach. He's a much better horse than I gave him credit for. Danza kicked me out of the exotics. I made a little on my win bet and the Oaks/Derby double, but overall, I took a loss. Now I'm hoping for a triple crown winner.
Bill
Bill
Hold fast to dreams, for if dreams die, life is like a broken winged bird that cannot fly.
Langston Hughes
Langston Hughes
Re: Who do you like?
I also underestimated him. I think he's a handy horse, that will be a force to reckon with as he matures and gets more experience. He's built like a bulldog.
Re: Who do you like?
jagger wrote:Congrats, TJ...I think you came the closest!!!
Hi jagger,
Thanks, but close only counts in horse shoes....but I did heed my own advice in the "Commanding Curve" post I put up in the Handicapping section:>) TJ