GOOD MARES FOR AFLEET ALEX....!!!!!
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AfleetAlex#1fan
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GOOD MARES FOR AFLEET ALEX....!!!!!
Anyone know any mares that would be good for Afleet Alex to be bred to...?????
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AfleetAlex#1fan
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Coquinerie
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ahhh so what... i think we all started off with a dream before we got into this business... at least i know i did. who knows, it could be a great way to spark a true interest in a young person's mind in the breeding world... hell, breaking down AA's pedigree wont hurt anyone... and some of us might even have a mare that does fit.
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FOS wrote:Let's start the bidding on Afleet Alex...Do I hear $18mil to open the bidding?
And I thought I was conservative, FOS
I was thinking $25m minimum, probably closer to $35m considering they went to $60m on Jones.
All in all, I'm expecting them to lowball Alex a bit, but not undersell him. The hard part for me is in trying to figure out where he'll go. I pretty much knew Jones was going to 3 Chimneys last year because of Slew. I can't really being to think of where Alex will land.
I would start looking at the farms who were in the hunt for Jones last year ... and that put's Ashford at the top of my list.
Lane's End ranks but, with them having Kingmambo, I can't see them looking to add another high end Prospector (which is why I don't think they tried real hard to get Jones.
I see Hill N Dale just lost Saarland (being moved to Darby Dan) and with Theatrical being their only stalwart anymore, they may be looking to pick up a "young gun" name especially since they don't really have a higher end scale Prospector in their ranks.
Either way, our little friend here is going to have to mow a lot of lawns/babysit a lot of neighborhood kids before she MIGHT be able to afford a broke down grandson of Alex.
Smarty Jones didn't sell for $60 Million; part of him sold for a much lower amount that was then extrapulated to that figure.
It's much easier to sell 1/3 a horse for $20 Million than it is to sell all of said horse for $60 Million as it's FAR less of a risk for the farm to do the former as opposed to the later (less of a reward to, but the lower risk is more salient).
This same misleading inflation of value occured with FuPeg (where that Japenese Fella held on to part of the horse).
-llbean
It's much easier to sell 1/3 a horse for $20 Million than it is to sell all of said horse for $60 Million as it's FAR less of a risk for the farm to do the former as opposed to the later (less of a reward to, but the lower risk is more salient).
This same misleading inflation of value occured with FuPeg (where that Japenese Fella held on to part of the horse).
-llbean
llbean wrote:Smarty Jones didn't sell for $60 Million; part of him sold for a much lower amount that was then extrapulated to that figure.
I know that ... I took FOS's figure to be what he thought Alex's "value" would be in relation to Jone's "$60m" value. If I was wrong, I'm sure he would have corrected me on it.
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AfleetAlex#1fan
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hi Sam
I wrote "Let's start the bidding on Afleet Alex...Do I hear $18mil to open the bidding?"
You wrote "And I thought I was conservative, FOS" "I was thinking $25m minimum, probably closer to $35m considering they went to $60m on Jones."
Sam...I believe you're right on target in your evaluation...I mentioned the $18mil figure to see what others might have to say.
Regardless (and assuming he passes the necessary scrutiny) I suggest that at $20mil Afleet Alex would be very good value...and that at $25mil he is possibly still good value (for my dollars)...but if there are a couple of players interested in going the extra-mile to get the colt...I expect it might take $35mil to get the job done (as you indicated).
I'd find it extremely difficult to recommend Afleet Alex at $30mil or $35mil, for a number of reasons...but I suggest that he is a very appealing commodity (unless there are somethings and/or issues about him that might raise some eyebrows) and might just capture the imagination of a player or two that might ultimately drive the numbers into the $35mil neighborhood. Not a neighborhood where I'd want to be.
I suggest that if AA passed all the necessary scrutiny, criteria etc that $50,000-Live might be better than just a viable stud fee. Furthermore...if each of 50 shares (a number which I believe makes sense) had a bonus season attached to it (at least for the first 4 or 5 years) above and beyond the one annual season attached to the share...a share price of approx $375k+- to $475k+- could not only be justified, but also be the kind of deal that share buyers (and breeders) might find very appealing. On the surface, the deal (based on those numbers) might make good sense. Of course insurance must be in place...to protect against the possibility of a fertility and/or libido issue etc. Certainly insurance coverages (and related rates) must be taken into account. I assure you the numbers are not small.
Above and beyond the 50 shares...there would certainly be a number of Lifetime Breeding Rights plus maybe 8 annual farm seasons that the standing farm would benefit from etc etc etc. Those farm seasons and Lifetime Breeding Rights might cause a prospective purchaser to pay a bonus to snag Alex to stand at their farm. Certainly All Things must be Considered in evaluating AA's potential worth.
To justify a $30 mil syndication shares would have to be valued in the $600k+- per category...and at those numbers I believe AA would have to stand for $75k...a bit of a strreeeetch as far as I'm concerned. In my mind he is NOT worth that kind of money...but as previously mentioned...players might push the envelope to get the horse...maybe go as far as $35mil...OUCH.
Needless to say...many factors come into play regarding stallion prospects and/or sales and/or syndications of such high-powered horses. There are many other issues we could touch on...but for now...again...I agree with your $25mil to $35mil evaluation of Afleet Alex...but don't count me in beyond $20-$25mil.
Respectfully
I wrote "Let's start the bidding on Afleet Alex...Do I hear $18mil to open the bidding?"
You wrote "And I thought I was conservative, FOS" "I was thinking $25m minimum, probably closer to $35m considering they went to $60m on Jones."
Sam...I believe you're right on target in your evaluation...I mentioned the $18mil figure to see what others might have to say.
Regardless (and assuming he passes the necessary scrutiny) I suggest that at $20mil Afleet Alex would be very good value...and that at $25mil he is possibly still good value (for my dollars)...but if there are a couple of players interested in going the extra-mile to get the colt...I expect it might take $35mil to get the job done (as you indicated).
I'd find it extremely difficult to recommend Afleet Alex at $30mil or $35mil, for a number of reasons...but I suggest that he is a very appealing commodity (unless there are somethings and/or issues about him that might raise some eyebrows) and might just capture the imagination of a player or two that might ultimately drive the numbers into the $35mil neighborhood. Not a neighborhood where I'd want to be.
I suggest that if AA passed all the necessary scrutiny, criteria etc that $50,000-Live might be better than just a viable stud fee. Furthermore...if each of 50 shares (a number which I believe makes sense) had a bonus season attached to it (at least for the first 4 or 5 years) above and beyond the one annual season attached to the share...a share price of approx $375k+- to $475k+- could not only be justified, but also be the kind of deal that share buyers (and breeders) might find very appealing. On the surface, the deal (based on those numbers) might make good sense. Of course insurance must be in place...to protect against the possibility of a fertility and/or libido issue etc. Certainly insurance coverages (and related rates) must be taken into account. I assure you the numbers are not small.
Above and beyond the 50 shares...there would certainly be a number of Lifetime Breeding Rights plus maybe 8 annual farm seasons that the standing farm would benefit from etc etc etc. Those farm seasons and Lifetime Breeding Rights might cause a prospective purchaser to pay a bonus to snag Alex to stand at their farm. Certainly All Things must be Considered in evaluating AA's potential worth.
To justify a $30 mil syndication shares would have to be valued in the $600k+- per category...and at those numbers I believe AA would have to stand for $75k...a bit of a strreeeetch as far as I'm concerned. In my mind he is NOT worth that kind of money...but as previously mentioned...players might push the envelope to get the horse...maybe go as far as $35mil...OUCH.
Needless to say...many factors come into play regarding stallion prospects and/or sales and/or syndications of such high-powered horses. There are many other issues we could touch on...but for now...again...I agree with your $25mil to $35mil evaluation of Afleet Alex...but don't count me in beyond $20-$25mil.
Respectfully
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