Updated as of March 4,2007
Updated as of March 4
1)(1)Nobiz Like Shobiz-It was a tough call, but he will remain the the number 1 horse in our Derby list. He ran a solid 3rd after not having the best of trips here in the Fountain Of Youth behind Scat Daddy and Stormello, both of which ran big races here. Nobiz still has room for improvement, which he will need to in upcoming preps, such as the Florida Derby. Lots of talent here and keeping him number 1 seems fair at this point after not disgracing himself one bit in the Fountain of Youth
2)(4)Stormello- He moves up from number 4 to the number 2 spot in the latest list. He shipped east into a tough spot and once again ran a huge race in the Fountain Of Youth. Set the early fractions of 23.21, 46.06, 1:09.89 and 1:35.36 and stayed on gamely to run second in a big effort here. First race back from his dog fight with Liquidity and showed no ill effects from that effort. Horse is battle tested. In addition, a battle-tested horse is what you want in May.
3)(9)Scat Daddy- The biggest jump in the list goes to this one, up from the number 9 spot in the previous list. I felt he deserved another chance after his last race and he delivered a big Fountain of Youth win. As a May foal, he might behind others in the maturity department. Pletcher had him ready to run a big race. Thinking the mile and a quarter could be a bit of an issue, yesterday was certainly a move in the right direction. Owns 2 wins over Nobiz Like Shobiz, and I would think that should count for something. These 2 should hook up again in the Florida Derby.
4)(6) Great Hunter- Moves up from the 6 spot to number 4. He ran a very nice race in winning the Bob Lewis in California on Saturday. He was 4 wide most of the trip and made a nice sweeping move to win the race. He has a very nice running style and he usually stalks before the attacking move. He is doing things very well at things quite well at this point. Horse has the right blend of stamina a speed. Moreover, experience is another thing this one has, all positives.
5) (3) Any Given Saturday-Drops to the 5 spot from number 3. He continues to win in a very professional manner, still progressing very nicely at this stage of his three-year-old campaign. Worked right on a leisurely pace at best and drew clear for the win. Of course the field was not packed with stars, but at this point he is doing it the right way. Winstar Farm and the Todd team took the same route to the Derby with Bluegrass Cat last year. And he might be better than Bluegrass Cat at this point. Tampa Bay Derby is up next for this one and a possible match up with Street Sense.
6)(3)Ravel-Another horse that falls due the fact the others ran big races. He goes to the number 6 spot here. Team Tabors son of Fusaichi Pegasus is moving right along. Sire won the Derby as we know. Horse has already shown the ability to relax early and accelerate late. Won the Sham from off the pace and finished strongly winning the 1 1/8 event. Has the looks of a horse that will continue to enjoy the races as they get longer. There are plenty of things to like early on from this one. The first of four Todd Pletcher trained horses.
7((5)Liquidity-Another California horse. Drops 2 spots, but has class. With Stormello running such a big race in the FOY, horse looks good. Just missed to Ravel and Stormello, so he on par class wise with them. He has progressed nicely in his last few starts. His one try outside Cali was a 9th place finish to Scat Daddy in the Champagne. That was in October. Was over taken by the classy Ravel in the late stages in the Sham.
8)(7) Street Sense- Drops to the 8 spot. He has yet to run in 2007. 3 horses he beat in the BC Juvy have come back to win since. Scat Daddy, Stormello and Great Hunter. That could tell us he was that good that day, or the track aided his big effort. Will get the benefit of the doubt as I think he is talented, but needs to get running and show it on the track. The Tampa Bay Derby is the target and a match up between him and Any Given Saturday. It looks like 2 preps and off to Kentucky. Not the easiest of tasks, but Nafzger has confidence it seems.
9 through 11 have not changed….
9) (9)Circular Quay- The 2nd of the two Tabor horses. Had big trouble in the Risen Star. He lost all momentum in avoiding a fallen horse. Also had no chance against Street Sense in the BC Juvy as the inside bias was too much to over come. I would have put this one higher, but I need to see a clean race. Has an explosive late kick. Still need to see if that kick will be as effective going longer. Hard to fully gauge at this point, but will get the benefit of the doubt. Still think he has the potential to deliver some big races with his power move late. Time will tell.
10)(10)Notional-Risen Star winner was not affected by the mishap. However might have stopped others from their best bid. Drew clear winning from the far outside 12 post, which is not an easy task. He was in a large field and handled it like a pro. So far he has a nice group going forward. As the distances have gotten longer, he has handled it nicely.
11)(11)Hard Spun-Drops two spots this week to number 11. Ran reasonably well in the Southwest, but did not make up the ground needed to win it after running into leisurely fractions. It looked like the first attempt for this guy to rate off the pace, not at all willing to dismiss this horse after not hitting the board in the Southwest. Connections will attempt to bring him up to a bigger effort. The Rebel will really tell us where he is at. And I would expect a better run there.
12) (-) King of the Roxy-Debuts in the number 12 spot after winning the Hutcheson Stakes for Todd Pletcher on the FOY under card. Horse was 4 wide and drew clear to win the race with ease. Has raced well in the past and put it all together in the Hutcheson Stakes. Not sure what the plans are with this one, but he looked sharp in winning.
Knocking on the Door-Adore the Gold falls from the 12 spot to here, ran a tiring 4th in the FOY. Summer Doldrums block buster winner of the Whirlaway, Curlin was an impressive maiden winner at Gulfstream, Imawildandcrazyguy closing second to Notional in Southwest, Belgravia 2 million dollar purchase has talent, Law Breaker debuts here as well, Chelokee- Nice allowance win at Gulfstream, Teufelsburg Front running winner of the Southwest
Off the list
Day Pass, Chief Talkeetna-No news with him, Exhale-Out Of Derby Picture, Buffalo Man-Injured, Drums Of Thunder-Dull FOY,Forefathers-Poor Hutch
Kentucky Derby Top 12
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Stevie Belmont
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Rokeby Forever
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Barclay Tagg is seriously running out of time to get Nobiz's head screwed on tight, if immaturity is causing his lugging in. It also might just be that Scat Daddy is a better horse...Nobiz has looked him in the eye twice and lugged in twice.
Neither strike me as 1 1/4 mile horses.
Neither strike me as 1 1/4 mile horses.
What synthetics are to California racing:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gb0mxcpPOU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gb0mxcpPOU
hi Rokeby Forever
Is it possible that Nobiz Like Showbiz is a highly regarded media favorite that's a big palooka of a horse in need of some more time before he gets his act together, so that he can better showcase the best he has to offer?
Whatta ya think, sound similar (at least to some extent) to Rock Hard Ten...hmmm.
Respectfully
Is it possible that Nobiz Like Showbiz is a highly regarded media favorite that's a big palooka of a horse in need of some more time before he gets his act together, so that he can better showcase the best he has to offer?
Whatta ya think, sound similar (at least to some extent) to Rock Hard Ten...hmmm.
Respectfully
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Rokeby Forever
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Hi FOS,
If that's true, then Nobiz has "no biz" being on the Derby trail. Too many "big palookas" get ruined by being rushed.
Think back only last year to Point Determined. I think back in March, 2006, he would have fit the definition of an "Immature, big palooka." He was put on the Derby trail against Brother Derek and even ran in the KY Derby - where is he now? How did he finish up the year? Was he put on the turf as an attempt to save his legs from collapsing?
If that's true, then Nobiz has "no biz" being on the Derby trail. Too many "big palookas" get ruined by being rushed.
Think back only last year to Point Determined. I think back in March, 2006, he would have fit the definition of an "Immature, big palooka." He was put on the Derby trail against Brother Derek and even ran in the KY Derby - where is he now? How did he finish up the year? Was he put on the turf as an attempt to save his legs from collapsing?
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Stevie Belmont
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Stevie Belmont
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3/11/07
Circular Quay was the biggest mover, up from number nine with his big Louisiana Derby win, some other minor changes
1)(1)Nobiz Like Shobiz- He ran a good 3rd in the Fountain Of Youth behind Scatt Daddy and Stormello, both of which ran big races here. Nobiz still has room for improvement, which he will need to do in the future. Lots of talent here and keeping him number 1 seems fair at this point after not disgracing himself in the Fountain Of Youth. Blinkers will be added to help him stay focused. That issue needs to be resolved. Wood Memorial next up.
2)(2)Stormello- He shipped east into a tough spot and once again ran a huge race in the Fountain Of Youth. Set the early fractions of 23.21, 46.06, 1;09.89 and 1:35.36 and stayed on gamely to run second in a very nice try here. First race back from his dog fight with Liquidity and showed no ill effects from that effort. Horse is battle tested. In addition, a battle-tested horse is what you want in May. Distance is still a concern.
3)(3)Scat Daddy- I felt he deserved another chance after his last race and he delivered a big Fountain Of Youth win. As a May foal, he might behind others in the maturity department. Pletcher had him ready to run a big race. Thinking the mile and a quarter could be a bit of an issue, yesterday was certainly a move in the right direction. Own 2 wins over Nobiz Like Shobiz, and I would think that should count for something.
4)(4) Great Hunter- He ran a very nice race in winning the Bob Lewis in California on Saturday. He was four wide most of the trip and made a nice sweeping move to win the race. He has a very nice running style and he usually stalks before the attacking move. He is doing things very well at things quite well at this point. Horse has the right blend of stamina a speed. In addition, experience is another thing this one has, all positives for a horse that looks sharp right now.
5)(9) Circular Quay- Moves up the number 5 with the big win. This horse has had many excuses. The BC Juvy he was up against it and the Risen Star was a debacle for him, as he had to avoid fallen foes. At last in the Louisiana Derby that wonderful power kick I have liked from early on was on display as he put together one of the better efforts in any prep race so far this year. Buckled down, kicked clear, and won the Louisiana Derby. His stock is once again back up. Solid 2-year-old foundation for this guy. At this point is certainly a major contender again. Still has to prove he can be as effective running longer and there is no reason to think he will not be. Dad won the Derby as well. The Wood Memorial is a possibility.
6(5)Any Given Saturday-He continues to win in a very professional manner, still progressing very nicely at this stage of his three-year-old campaign. Worked right on a leisurely pace at best and drew clear for the win. Of course the field was not packed with stars, but at this point he is doing it the right way. Winstar Farm and the Todd team took the same route to the Derby with Bluegrass Cat last year. And he might be better than Bluegrass Cat at this point.
7(6)Ravel- Drops one spot. Team Tabors son of Fusaichi Pegasus is moving right along. Sire won the Derby as we know. Horse has already shown the ability to relax early and accelerate late. Won the Sham from off the pace and finished strongly winning the 1 1/8 event. Has the looks of a horse that will continue to enjoy the races as they get longer. There are plenty of things to like early on from this one, however he has only raced three times up until now and is behind many in the experience department, and that is a negative at this point.
8..8 Street Sense- Has yet to run in 2007. Three horse he beat in the BC Juvy have come back to win. Scat Daddy, Stormello and Great Hunter. That could tell us he was that good that day, or the track aided his big effort. Will get the benefit of the doubt as I think he is talented, but needs to get running and show it on the track. The Tampa Bay Derby is the target and a match up between him and Any Given Saturday.
9)(7) Liquidity-Drops two more spots after the Louisiana Derby. He battled into contention in the Louisiana Derby before tiring and falling out of the race. Ran reasonably well, but took a step backwards at this point off the lack luster finish. Horse is coming off two hard fought races against Stormello and Ravel. Will need to show he can stay on going longer.
10)(10)Notional-Risen Star winner was not affected by the mishap. However might have stopped others from their best bid. Drew clear winning from the far outside 12 post, which is not an easy task. He was in a large field and handled it like a pro. The third of the O’Neill trainees. So far he has a nice group going forward. As the distances have gotten longer, he has handled it nicely.
11)(11)Hard Spun- Ran reasonably well in the Southwest, but did not make up the ground needed to win it after running into leisurely fractions. It looked like the first attempt for this guy to rate off the pace, not at all willing to dismiss this horse after not hitting the board in the Southwest. Connections will attempt to bring him up to a bigger effort. The Rebel has been ruled out. Connections are not happy with the track conditions. Could be a valid excuse, will see.
12)(12) King of the Roxy- Hutcheson Stakes winner for Todd Pletcher on the FOY under card. Horse was 4 wide and drew clear to win the race with ease. Has raced well in the past and put it all together in the Hutcheson Stakes. Connections have opted to take their chances with him on the Derby trail. The Santa Anita Derby is a target.
Knocking on the Door-Adore the Gold falls from the 12 spot to here, ran a tiring 4th in the FOY. Bwana Bull big closing winner of the El Camino Derby, Curlin was an impressive maiden winner at Gulfstream, Belgravia 2 million dollar purchase has talent, Law Breaker debuts here as well, Chelokee- Nice allowance win at Gulfstream, Teufelsburg Front running winner of the Southwest, Day Pass ran decent against older in Dubai, Cowtown Cat Gotham winner
Off The List Summer Doldrums ran a flat Gotham and Imawildandcrazyguy showed little in Louisiana.
__________________
Circular Quay was the biggest mover, up from number nine with his big Louisiana Derby win, some other minor changes
1)(1)Nobiz Like Shobiz- He ran a good 3rd in the Fountain Of Youth behind Scatt Daddy and Stormello, both of which ran big races here. Nobiz still has room for improvement, which he will need to do in the future. Lots of talent here and keeping him number 1 seems fair at this point after not disgracing himself in the Fountain Of Youth. Blinkers will be added to help him stay focused. That issue needs to be resolved. Wood Memorial next up.
2)(2)Stormello- He shipped east into a tough spot and once again ran a huge race in the Fountain Of Youth. Set the early fractions of 23.21, 46.06, 1;09.89 and 1:35.36 and stayed on gamely to run second in a very nice try here. First race back from his dog fight with Liquidity and showed no ill effects from that effort. Horse is battle tested. In addition, a battle-tested horse is what you want in May. Distance is still a concern.
3)(3)Scat Daddy- I felt he deserved another chance after his last race and he delivered a big Fountain Of Youth win. As a May foal, he might behind others in the maturity department. Pletcher had him ready to run a big race. Thinking the mile and a quarter could be a bit of an issue, yesterday was certainly a move in the right direction. Own 2 wins over Nobiz Like Shobiz, and I would think that should count for something.
4)(4) Great Hunter- He ran a very nice race in winning the Bob Lewis in California on Saturday. He was four wide most of the trip and made a nice sweeping move to win the race. He has a very nice running style and he usually stalks before the attacking move. He is doing things very well at things quite well at this point. Horse has the right blend of stamina a speed. In addition, experience is another thing this one has, all positives for a horse that looks sharp right now.
5)(9) Circular Quay- Moves up the number 5 with the big win. This horse has had many excuses. The BC Juvy he was up against it and the Risen Star was a debacle for him, as he had to avoid fallen foes. At last in the Louisiana Derby that wonderful power kick I have liked from early on was on display as he put together one of the better efforts in any prep race so far this year. Buckled down, kicked clear, and won the Louisiana Derby. His stock is once again back up. Solid 2-year-old foundation for this guy. At this point is certainly a major contender again. Still has to prove he can be as effective running longer and there is no reason to think he will not be. Dad won the Derby as well. The Wood Memorial is a possibility.
6(5)Any Given Saturday-He continues to win in a very professional manner, still progressing very nicely at this stage of his three-year-old campaign. Worked right on a leisurely pace at best and drew clear for the win. Of course the field was not packed with stars, but at this point he is doing it the right way. Winstar Farm and the Todd team took the same route to the Derby with Bluegrass Cat last year. And he might be better than Bluegrass Cat at this point.
7(6)Ravel- Drops one spot. Team Tabors son of Fusaichi Pegasus is moving right along. Sire won the Derby as we know. Horse has already shown the ability to relax early and accelerate late. Won the Sham from off the pace and finished strongly winning the 1 1/8 event. Has the looks of a horse that will continue to enjoy the races as they get longer. There are plenty of things to like early on from this one, however he has only raced three times up until now and is behind many in the experience department, and that is a negative at this point.
8..8 Street Sense- Has yet to run in 2007. Three horse he beat in the BC Juvy have come back to win. Scat Daddy, Stormello and Great Hunter. That could tell us he was that good that day, or the track aided his big effort. Will get the benefit of the doubt as I think he is talented, but needs to get running and show it on the track. The Tampa Bay Derby is the target and a match up between him and Any Given Saturday.
9)(7) Liquidity-Drops two more spots after the Louisiana Derby. He battled into contention in the Louisiana Derby before tiring and falling out of the race. Ran reasonably well, but took a step backwards at this point off the lack luster finish. Horse is coming off two hard fought races against Stormello and Ravel. Will need to show he can stay on going longer.
10)(10)Notional-Risen Star winner was not affected by the mishap. However might have stopped others from their best bid. Drew clear winning from the far outside 12 post, which is not an easy task. He was in a large field and handled it like a pro. The third of the O’Neill trainees. So far he has a nice group going forward. As the distances have gotten longer, he has handled it nicely.
11)(11)Hard Spun- Ran reasonably well in the Southwest, but did not make up the ground needed to win it after running into leisurely fractions. It looked like the first attempt for this guy to rate off the pace, not at all willing to dismiss this horse after not hitting the board in the Southwest. Connections will attempt to bring him up to a bigger effort. The Rebel has been ruled out. Connections are not happy with the track conditions. Could be a valid excuse, will see.
12)(12) King of the Roxy- Hutcheson Stakes winner for Todd Pletcher on the FOY under card. Horse was 4 wide and drew clear to win the race with ease. Has raced well in the past and put it all together in the Hutcheson Stakes. Connections have opted to take their chances with him on the Derby trail. The Santa Anita Derby is a target.
Knocking on the Door-Adore the Gold falls from the 12 spot to here, ran a tiring 4th in the FOY. Bwana Bull big closing winner of the El Camino Derby, Curlin was an impressive maiden winner at Gulfstream, Belgravia 2 million dollar purchase has talent, Law Breaker debuts here as well, Chelokee- Nice allowance win at Gulfstream, Teufelsburg Front running winner of the Southwest, Day Pass ran decent against older in Dubai, Cowtown Cat Gotham winner
Off The List Summer Doldrums ran a flat Gotham and Imawildandcrazyguy showed little in Louisiana.
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LKR
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Kentucky Derby Top 12
Much as I hate it, you are right about I'mawildandcrazyguy not showing much at the finish. It will be interesting to see where they go with him now, he is still a nice horse but apparently he is notch down from the real derby contenders. We were hoping he would do better, but that is horse racing.
Kathie King
Little King Ranch
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Basket Weave
And The Buzz Horses
Little King Ranch
Home Of Top Account
Basket Weave
And The Buzz Horses
derby prospect
I am, admittedly, just a numbers guy. I can barely discern the difference between a horse and a donkey and am certainly not able to see confirmational problems or recognize "heart" or " the look in his eye". Rather, I use just numbers and a few other intangeables for my predictions. I am usually very good at figuring out who will NOT win and can usually eliminate half or more of the field. Picking a winner this year is really going to be much more difficult as there are about 5 horses that I regard very highly.
Four horses easily do not measure up (by my method). King of Roxy, Notional, Liquidity, and Stormello. This is mainly based on dismal GSV or conduit mare profile or both and have nothing else compelling about their pedigree to redeem them. NO chance.
I have to give Scat Daddy a little chance based on the Hennessy/Mr. P but I don't like the 2 x 4 through DAUGHTERS to Mr. P and his GSV and conduit mare profile are significantly poorer than at least 5 other horses. Really a minimal chance.
Any Given Saturday gets a little notice with his 49er/A.P. Indy but suffers from an abysmal conduit mare profile. Again, minimal chance.
I like Circular Quay with his nice conduit mare profile but am bothered by his 3 crosses of RAN. Maybe just a little better than those above.
Now the hard part. The winner WILL be one of the following: Hard Spun, Great Hunter, Ravel, Nobiz Like Shobiz or Street Sense. These horses all have significantly better conduit mare profiles than the rest of the field - with the exception of Circular Quay. Hard Spun has the most Dosage Points and best GSV - by a lot, to go with a nice conduit mare profile. I like the A.P. Indy over Fappiano in Great Hunter to go with his field leading conduit mare profile. Ravel is very lightly raced but the conduit mare profile and the Mr. P over A.P. Indy is appealing. Nobiz Like Shobiz has a lot to like with his experience, conduit mare profile and Fappiano over Storm Cat. Street Sense - The Curse might hold him back.
Top three for me right now are Great Hunter (best name in the lot for a triple crown winner, IMHO), Hard Spun and Nobiz Like Shobiz.
I did pretty good last year with correct predictions for 2 of the top 3 finishers in all three of the Triple Crown races. That being said, I gave Jazil NO CHANCE in the Belmont with his Belmont Winner lowest conduit mare profile of all time.
The list will probably evolve as the first Saturday in May approaches and more intangeables emerge.
Four horses easily do not measure up (by my method). King of Roxy, Notional, Liquidity, and Stormello. This is mainly based on dismal GSV or conduit mare profile or both and have nothing else compelling about their pedigree to redeem them. NO chance.
I have to give Scat Daddy a little chance based on the Hennessy/Mr. P but I don't like the 2 x 4 through DAUGHTERS to Mr. P and his GSV and conduit mare profile are significantly poorer than at least 5 other horses. Really a minimal chance.
Any Given Saturday gets a little notice with his 49er/A.P. Indy but suffers from an abysmal conduit mare profile. Again, minimal chance.
I like Circular Quay with his nice conduit mare profile but am bothered by his 3 crosses of RAN. Maybe just a little better than those above.
Now the hard part. The winner WILL be one of the following: Hard Spun, Great Hunter, Ravel, Nobiz Like Shobiz or Street Sense. These horses all have significantly better conduit mare profiles than the rest of the field - with the exception of Circular Quay. Hard Spun has the most Dosage Points and best GSV - by a lot, to go with a nice conduit mare profile. I like the A.P. Indy over Fappiano in Great Hunter to go with his field leading conduit mare profile. Ravel is very lightly raced but the conduit mare profile and the Mr. P over A.P. Indy is appealing. Nobiz Like Shobiz has a lot to like with his experience, conduit mare profile and Fappiano over Storm Cat. Street Sense - The Curse might hold him back.
Top three for me right now are Great Hunter (best name in the lot for a triple crown winner, IMHO), Hard Spun and Nobiz Like Shobiz.
I did pretty good last year with correct predictions for 2 of the top 3 finishers in all three of the Triple Crown races. That being said, I gave Jazil NO CHANCE in the Belmont with his Belmont Winner lowest conduit mare profile of all time.
The list will probably evolve as the first Saturday in May approaches and more intangeables emerge.
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KonaNative
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"Any Given Saturday gets a little notice with his 49er/A.P. Indy but suffers from an abysmal conduit mare profile. Again, minimal chance" I don't know? His GSV is on the border line with classic winners. Granted his CMP is above the 1.00..Still this may not be a disadvantage this year. Many of the top money earners are making their cash with off the pace runs. I like his ballance..Speed plus Stamina 
We will see Saturday 
http://www.pedigreequery.com/any+given+saturday
We will see Saturday
http://www.pedigreequery.com/any+given+saturday
any given saturday
KonaNative,
He does have a respectable GSV and if his conduit mare profile was more in line with the horses mentioned above (Great Hunter et al) I could be more impressed. Speed and Stamina? I really don't see much stamina in his CMP of 12 and third triad of 12. We really don't know who has stamina at this point and won't until the last 2 furlongs on the first Saturday in May. We have at least 5 horses this year who have excellent scores for stamina as reflected in their conduit mare profile. It is difficult for me to imagine how a horse with not even a mediocre conduit mare profile for stamina will beat ALL 5 of these horses with exemplary scores. JMHO.
He does have a respectable GSV and if his conduit mare profile was more in line with the horses mentioned above (Great Hunter et al) I could be more impressed. Speed and Stamina? I really don't see much stamina in his CMP of 12 and third triad of 12. We really don't know who has stamina at this point and won't until the last 2 furlongs on the first Saturday in May. We have at least 5 horses this year who have excellent scores for stamina as reflected in their conduit mare profile. It is difficult for me to imagine how a horse with not even a mediocre conduit mare profile for stamina will beat ALL 5 of these horses with exemplary scores. JMHO.
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KonaNative
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stamina
Kona,
Not sure if I follow your assertion - "GSV is all about dirt and stamina". And, actually, Hard Spun has the best GSV by far to go along with a very nice conduit mare profile. Great Hunter has the best conduit mare profile - by my somewhat twisted method.
Not sure if I follow your assertion - "GSV is all about dirt and stamina". And, actually, Hard Spun has the best GSV by far to go along with a very nice conduit mare profile. Great Hunter has the best conduit mare profile - by my somewhat twisted method.
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Stevie Belmont
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Updated 3.19.07 Pressure on the top 3...A lot of horses still need to stretch to 1 1/8 so will see...
1)(1)Nobiz Like Shobiz- He ran a good 3rd in the Fountain Of Youth behind Scatt Daddy and Stormello, both of which ran big races here. Nobiz still has room for improvement, which he will need to do in the future. Lots of talent here and keeping him number 1 seems fair at this point after not disgracing himself in the Fountain Of Youth. He is hanging in the one spot, but once again must improve and run straight in the lane. Blinkers will be added to help him stay focused. That issue needs to be resolved. Wood Memorial next up.
2)(2)Stormello- He shipped east into a tough spot and once again ran a huge race in the Fountain Of Youth. Set the early fractions of 23.21, 46.06, 1;09.89 and 1:35.36 and stayed on gamely to run second in a very nice try here. First race back from his dog fight with Liquidity and showed no ill effects from that effort. Horse is battle tested. In addition, a battle-tested horse is what you want in May. Distance is still a concern.
3)(3)Scat Daddy- I felt he deserved another chance after his last race and he delivered a big Fountain Of Youth win. As a May foal, he might behind others in the maturity department. Pletcher had him ready to run a big race. Thinking the mile and a quarter could be a bit of an issue, yesterday was certainly a move in the right direction. Own 2 wins over Nobiz Like Shobiz, and I would think that should count for something.
4)(4) Great Hunter- He ran a very nice race in winning the Bob Lewis in California on Saturday. He was four wide most of the trip and made a nice sweeping move to win the race. He has a very nice running style and he usually stalks before the attacking move. He is doing things very well at things quite well at this point. Horse has the right blend of stamina a speed. In addition, experience is another thing this one has, all positives for a horse that looks sharp right now. The top three are under some heavy heat with the next few and some of them could very well ranked higher, but that will sort itself out in time.
5(6) Any Given Saturday- Moves up a spot after a tough game beat to Street Sense. And another who could have moved up even more. Once again, Any Given Saturday ran a very solid race. He has once again taken another step forward in his progression. He was a little wide in the Tampa Bay Derby when he took on Street Sense who was to his inside. Horse moves up the list where he debuted at number two. He galloped out after the Tampa Derby relatively well. The 1 1/8 Bluegrass and rematch with Street Sense looms. Horse has showed gameness in two nose loses to two of the top ranked 3 year olds in the country. Horse has upside and is battle tested. Still needs to stretch out as many others do to. So far so good.
6) 8 Street Sense- Saying his 2007 debut was a success might be a bit of an understatement. Moves up two spots, and it could be more. He won the Tampa Bay Derby is bombastic style nosing out the ever-game Any Given Saturday in a stirring stretch battle. It was a huge effort off a 4-month layoff. He once again got a nice trip, but showed his ability digging in for the win, as he set a new course record at Tampa Bay Down. Any record at Tampa Bay has to be taken with a grain of salt, but nonetheless it is a record. Huge efforts off layoffs can be a detriment for a horse. Winning off that layoff against a horse like Any Given Saturday is not an easy task. This one has talent for sure. His next start is the Bluegrass in where he will meet Any Given Saturday again and Great Hunter in what should be a great race.
7)(5) Circular Quay- Only two spots, only because of the big Tampa Bay race. This horse has had many excuses. The BC Juvy he was up against it and the Risen Star was a debacle for him, as he had to avoid fallen foes. At last in the Louisiana Derby that wonderful power kick I have liked from early on was on display as he put together one of the better efforts in any prep race so far this year. Buckled down, kicked clear, and won the Louisiana Derby. His stock is once again back up. Solid 2-year-old foundation for this guy. At this point is certainly a major contender again. Still has to prove he can be as effective running longer and there is no reason to think he will not be. His late running style could be problematic in a race like the Kentucky Derby. Dad won the Derby as well. The Wood Memorial is a possibility.
8 (7)Ravel- Drops another spot. Team Tabors son of Fusaichi Pegasus is moving right along. Sire won the Derby as we know. Horse has already shown the ability to relax early and accelerate late. Won the Sham from off the pace and finished strongly winning the 1 1/8 event. Has the looks of a horse that will continue to enjoy the races as they get longer. There are plenty of things to like early on from this one, however he has only raced three times up until now and is behind many in the experience department, and that is a negative at this point.
9)(10)Notional-Moved up one spot .Risen Star winner was not affected by the mishap. However might have stopped others from their best bid. Drew clear winning from the far outside 12 post, which is not an easy task. He was in a large field and handled it like a pro. So far he has a nice group going forward. As the distances have gotten longer, he has handled it nicely.
10)(9) Liquidity -Drops another spot. He battled into contention in the Louisiana Derby before tiring and falling out of the race. Ran reasonably well, but took a step backwards at this point off the lack luster finish. Horse is coming off two hard fought races against Stormello and Ravel. Will need to show he can stay on going longer.
11)(12) King of the Roxy- Moves up to make room for Curlin. Hutcheson Stakes winner for Todd Pletcher on the FOY under card. Horse was 4 wide and drew clear to win the race with ease. Has raced well in the past and put it all together in the Hutcheson Stakes. Connections have opted to take their chances with him on the Derby trail. The Santa Anita Derby is a target.
12)(-) Curlin - Debuts on the list after winning in his first try going two turns in the Rebel. He was purchased for 3.5 million after his maiden breaker at Gulfstream and showed why. Horse has some talent as he won the Rebel drawing off for the win. Curlin wins maiden and than get the Grade III Rebel which is not an easy task. Lightly races colt is up against schedule wise for the Derby. That would be a tough task at this point. This horse has every right to continue to improve. The Preakness Stakes might be a viable option for owners that might take that route here. Still drifted a bit in the stretch, but corrected quickly.
Knocking on the Door-Adore the Gold falls from the 12 spot to here, ran a tiring 4th in the FOY. Bwana Bull big closing winner of the El Camino Derby, Belgravia 2 million dollar purchase has talent, Law Breaker skipped the Win Star Derby, Chelokee- Nice allowance win at Gulfstream, Teufelsburg barley stays on, Day Pass ran decent against older in Dubai, Cowtown Cat Gotham winner, Hard Spun Drops off,Still has plenty of potential, needs to run well in the Lanesend and could get right back on. Cobalt Blue sharp looking son of Golden Missile won the San Felipe is easy front running style, but a good looking chestnut with potential.
1)(1)Nobiz Like Shobiz- He ran a good 3rd in the Fountain Of Youth behind Scatt Daddy and Stormello, both of which ran big races here. Nobiz still has room for improvement, which he will need to do in the future. Lots of talent here and keeping him number 1 seems fair at this point after not disgracing himself in the Fountain Of Youth. He is hanging in the one spot, but once again must improve and run straight in the lane. Blinkers will be added to help him stay focused. That issue needs to be resolved. Wood Memorial next up.
2)(2)Stormello- He shipped east into a tough spot and once again ran a huge race in the Fountain Of Youth. Set the early fractions of 23.21, 46.06, 1;09.89 and 1:35.36 and stayed on gamely to run second in a very nice try here. First race back from his dog fight with Liquidity and showed no ill effects from that effort. Horse is battle tested. In addition, a battle-tested horse is what you want in May. Distance is still a concern.
3)(3)Scat Daddy- I felt he deserved another chance after his last race and he delivered a big Fountain Of Youth win. As a May foal, he might behind others in the maturity department. Pletcher had him ready to run a big race. Thinking the mile and a quarter could be a bit of an issue, yesterday was certainly a move in the right direction. Own 2 wins over Nobiz Like Shobiz, and I would think that should count for something.
4)(4) Great Hunter- He ran a very nice race in winning the Bob Lewis in California on Saturday. He was four wide most of the trip and made a nice sweeping move to win the race. He has a very nice running style and he usually stalks before the attacking move. He is doing things very well at things quite well at this point. Horse has the right blend of stamina a speed. In addition, experience is another thing this one has, all positives for a horse that looks sharp right now. The top three are under some heavy heat with the next few and some of them could very well ranked higher, but that will sort itself out in time.
5(6) Any Given Saturday- Moves up a spot after a tough game beat to Street Sense. And another who could have moved up even more. Once again, Any Given Saturday ran a very solid race. He has once again taken another step forward in his progression. He was a little wide in the Tampa Bay Derby when he took on Street Sense who was to his inside. Horse moves up the list where he debuted at number two. He galloped out after the Tampa Derby relatively well. The 1 1/8 Bluegrass and rematch with Street Sense looms. Horse has showed gameness in two nose loses to two of the top ranked 3 year olds in the country. Horse has upside and is battle tested. Still needs to stretch out as many others do to. So far so good.
6) 8 Street Sense- Saying his 2007 debut was a success might be a bit of an understatement. Moves up two spots, and it could be more. He won the Tampa Bay Derby is bombastic style nosing out the ever-game Any Given Saturday in a stirring stretch battle. It was a huge effort off a 4-month layoff. He once again got a nice trip, but showed his ability digging in for the win, as he set a new course record at Tampa Bay Down. Any record at Tampa Bay has to be taken with a grain of salt, but nonetheless it is a record. Huge efforts off layoffs can be a detriment for a horse. Winning off that layoff against a horse like Any Given Saturday is not an easy task. This one has talent for sure. His next start is the Bluegrass in where he will meet Any Given Saturday again and Great Hunter in what should be a great race.
7)(5) Circular Quay- Only two spots, only because of the big Tampa Bay race. This horse has had many excuses. The BC Juvy he was up against it and the Risen Star was a debacle for him, as he had to avoid fallen foes. At last in the Louisiana Derby that wonderful power kick I have liked from early on was on display as he put together one of the better efforts in any prep race so far this year. Buckled down, kicked clear, and won the Louisiana Derby. His stock is once again back up. Solid 2-year-old foundation for this guy. At this point is certainly a major contender again. Still has to prove he can be as effective running longer and there is no reason to think he will not be. His late running style could be problematic in a race like the Kentucky Derby. Dad won the Derby as well. The Wood Memorial is a possibility.
8 (7)Ravel- Drops another spot. Team Tabors son of Fusaichi Pegasus is moving right along. Sire won the Derby as we know. Horse has already shown the ability to relax early and accelerate late. Won the Sham from off the pace and finished strongly winning the 1 1/8 event. Has the looks of a horse that will continue to enjoy the races as they get longer. There are plenty of things to like early on from this one, however he has only raced three times up until now and is behind many in the experience department, and that is a negative at this point.
9)(10)Notional-Moved up one spot .Risen Star winner was not affected by the mishap. However might have stopped others from their best bid. Drew clear winning from the far outside 12 post, which is not an easy task. He was in a large field and handled it like a pro. So far he has a nice group going forward. As the distances have gotten longer, he has handled it nicely.
10)(9) Liquidity -Drops another spot. He battled into contention in the Louisiana Derby before tiring and falling out of the race. Ran reasonably well, but took a step backwards at this point off the lack luster finish. Horse is coming off two hard fought races against Stormello and Ravel. Will need to show he can stay on going longer.
11)(12) King of the Roxy- Moves up to make room for Curlin. Hutcheson Stakes winner for Todd Pletcher on the FOY under card. Horse was 4 wide and drew clear to win the race with ease. Has raced well in the past and put it all together in the Hutcheson Stakes. Connections have opted to take their chances with him on the Derby trail. The Santa Anita Derby is a target.
12)(-) Curlin - Debuts on the list after winning in his first try going two turns in the Rebel. He was purchased for 3.5 million after his maiden breaker at Gulfstream and showed why. Horse has some talent as he won the Rebel drawing off for the win. Curlin wins maiden and than get the Grade III Rebel which is not an easy task. Lightly races colt is up against schedule wise for the Derby. That would be a tough task at this point. This horse has every right to continue to improve. The Preakness Stakes might be a viable option for owners that might take that route here. Still drifted a bit in the stretch, but corrected quickly.
Knocking on the Door-Adore the Gold falls from the 12 spot to here, ran a tiring 4th in the FOY. Bwana Bull big closing winner of the El Camino Derby, Belgravia 2 million dollar purchase has talent, Law Breaker skipped the Win Star Derby, Chelokee- Nice allowance win at Gulfstream, Teufelsburg barley stays on, Day Pass ran decent against older in Dubai, Cowtown Cat Gotham winner, Hard Spun Drops off,Still has plenty of potential, needs to run well in the Lanesend and could get right back on. Cobalt Blue sharp looking son of Golden Missile won the San Felipe is easy front running style, but a good looking chestnut with potential.
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Stevie Belmont
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3/25/07
Hard Spun Zooms To Number 5
1)(1)Nobiz Like Shobiz- Still on top for now. He ran a good 3rd in the Fountain Of Youth behind Scatt Daddy and Stormello, both of which ran big races here. Nobiz still has room for improvement, which he will need to do in the future. Lots of talent here and keeping him number 1 seems fair at this point after not disgracing himself in the Fountain Of Youth. He is hanging in the one spot, but once again must improve and run straight in the lane. Blinkers will be added to help him stay focused. That issue needs to be resolved. Wood Memorial next.
2)(2)Stormello- Florida Derby bound.He shipped east into a tough spot and once again ran a huge race in the Fountain Of Youth. Set the early fractions of 23.21, 46.06, 1;09.89 and 1:35.36 and stayed on gamely to run second in a very nice try here. First race back from his dog fight with Liquidity and showed no ill effects from that effort. Horse is battle tested. In addition, a battle-tested horse is what you want in May. Distance is still a concern.
3)(3)Scat Daddy- I felt he deserved another chance after his last race and he delivered a big Fountain Of Youth win. As a May foal, he might behind others in the maturity department. Pletcher had him ready to run a big race. Thinking the mile and a quarter could be a bit of an issue, yesterday was certainly a move in the right direction. Own 2 wins over Nobiz Like Shobiz, and I would think that should count for something. Florida Derby next.
4)(4) Great Hunter- He ran a very nice race in winning the Bob Lewis in California on Saturday. He was four wide most of the trip and made a nice sweeping move to win the race. He has a very nice running style and he usually stalks before the attacking move. He is doing things very well at things quite well at this point. Horse has the right blend of stamina a speed. In addition, experience is another thing this one has, all positives for a horse that looks sharp right now. The top three are under some heavy heat with the next few and some of them could very well ranked higher, but that will sort itself out in time. Bluegrass next.
5)(-) Hard Spun- Not only gets back on the list, but all the way to number 5. Connections opted to skip the Rebel at Oaklawn because the horse does not care for the surface, well he sure like the surface at Turfway Park. Hard Spun put together an impressive effort as he drew clear winning easy. The most impressive part about the win was the strong gallop out past the 1 ¼ mark, always a positive. Breaking from post 10, he just relaxed right off the pace and opened up as he turned for home. This horse pretty much just cruised until the stretch where he turned it on. Visually he was a good, as one would hope for at this stage of his development. Great looking colt will aim for the ultra competitive Bluegrass for his final prep before the Kentucky Derby. As a May foal there is still upside for even more improvement.
6(5) Any Given Saturday- Any Given Saturday ran a very solid race in just losing out to Street Sense. He has once again taken another step forward in his progression. He was a little wide in the Tampa Bay Derby when he took on Street Sense who was to his inside. Horse moves up the list where he debuted at number two. He galloped out after the Tampa Derby relatively well. The 1 1/8 Bluegrass and rematch with Street Sense looms. Horse has showed gameness in two nose loses to two of the top ranked 3 year olds in the country. Horse has upside and is battle tested. Still needs to stretch out as many others do to, so far so good. Bluegrass next.
7)(6) Street Sense- Saying his 2007 debut was a success might be a bit of an understatement. He won the Tampa Bay Derby is bombastic style nosing out the ever-game Any Given Saturday in a stirring stretch battle. It was a huge effort off a 4-month layoff. He once again got a nice trip, but showed his ability digging in for the win, as he set a new course record at Tampa Bay Down. Any record at Tampa Bay has to be taken with a grain of salt, but nonetheless it is a record. Huge efforts off layoffs can be a detriment for a horse. Winning off that layoff against a horse like Any Given Saturday is not an easy task. This one has talent for sure. His next start is the Bluegrass in where he will meet Any Given Saturday again and Great Hunter in what should be a great race. Bluegrass next.
8 (7) Circular Quay- This horse has had many excuses. The BC Juvy he was up against it and the Risen Star was a debacle for him, as he had to avoid fallen foes. At last in the Louisiana Derby that wonderful power kick I have liked from early on was on display as he put together one of the better efforts in any prep race so far this year. Buckled down, kicked clear, and won the Louisiana Derby. His stock is once again back up. Solid 2-year-old foundation for this guy. At this point is certainly a major contender again. Still has to prove he can be as effective running longer and there is no reason to think he will not be. His late running style could be problematic in a race like the Kentucky Derby. Dad won the Derby as well. The Wood Memorial is a possibility. Wood Memorial next.
9)(9)Notional-Risen Star winner was not affected by the mishap. However might have stopped others from their best bid. Drew clear winning from the far outside 12 post, which is not an easy task. He was in a large field and handled it like a pro. So far he has a nice group going forward. As the distances have gotten longer, he has handled it nicely.
10)(10) Liquidity -He battled into contention in the Louisiana Derby before tiring and falling out of the race. Ran reasonably well, but took a step backwards at this point off the lack luster finish. Horse is coming off two hard fought races against Stormello and Ravel. Will need to show he can stay on going longer.
11)(11) King of the Roxy- Hutcheson Stake’s winner for Todd Pletcher on the FOY under card. Horse was 4 wide and drew clear to win the race with ease. Has raced well in the past and put it all together in the Hutcheson Stakes. Connections have opted to take their chances with him on the Derby trail. The Santa Anita Derby is a target.
12) (-) Curlin - Debuts on the list after winning in his first try going two turns in the Rebel. He was purchased for 3.5 million after his maiden breaker at Gulfstream and showed why. Horse has some talent as he won the Rebel drawing off for the win. Curlin wins maiden and than get the Grade III Rebel which is not an easy task. Lightly races colt is up against schedule wise for the Derby. That would be a tough task at this point. This horse has every right to continue to improve. The Preakness Stakes might be a viable option for owners that might take that route here. Still drifted a bit in the stretch, but corrected quickly.
Knocking on the Door-Adore the Gold falls from the 12 spot to here, ran a tiring 4th in the FOY. Bwana Bull big closing winner of the El Camino Derby, Dominican strong closing winner of the Rushaway Stakes on the Lanesend undercard, Law Breaker debuts here as well, Chelokee- Nice allowance win at Gulfstream, Day Pass ran decent against older in Dubai, Cowtown Cat Gotham winner. Cobalt Blue sharp looking son of Golden Missile won the San Felipe is easy front running style, but a good-looking chestnut with potential. Song Of Navarone winner of the Winstar Derby.
Ravel- is off the Derby trail due to a leg injury
Hard Spun Zooms To Number 5
1)(1)Nobiz Like Shobiz- Still on top for now. He ran a good 3rd in the Fountain Of Youth behind Scatt Daddy and Stormello, both of which ran big races here. Nobiz still has room for improvement, which he will need to do in the future. Lots of talent here and keeping him number 1 seems fair at this point after not disgracing himself in the Fountain Of Youth. He is hanging in the one spot, but once again must improve and run straight in the lane. Blinkers will be added to help him stay focused. That issue needs to be resolved. Wood Memorial next.
2)(2)Stormello- Florida Derby bound.He shipped east into a tough spot and once again ran a huge race in the Fountain Of Youth. Set the early fractions of 23.21, 46.06, 1;09.89 and 1:35.36 and stayed on gamely to run second in a very nice try here. First race back from his dog fight with Liquidity and showed no ill effects from that effort. Horse is battle tested. In addition, a battle-tested horse is what you want in May. Distance is still a concern.
3)(3)Scat Daddy- I felt he deserved another chance after his last race and he delivered a big Fountain Of Youth win. As a May foal, he might behind others in the maturity department. Pletcher had him ready to run a big race. Thinking the mile and a quarter could be a bit of an issue, yesterday was certainly a move in the right direction. Own 2 wins over Nobiz Like Shobiz, and I would think that should count for something. Florida Derby next.
4)(4) Great Hunter- He ran a very nice race in winning the Bob Lewis in California on Saturday. He was four wide most of the trip and made a nice sweeping move to win the race. He has a very nice running style and he usually stalks before the attacking move. He is doing things very well at things quite well at this point. Horse has the right blend of stamina a speed. In addition, experience is another thing this one has, all positives for a horse that looks sharp right now. The top three are under some heavy heat with the next few and some of them could very well ranked higher, but that will sort itself out in time. Bluegrass next.
5)(-) Hard Spun- Not only gets back on the list, but all the way to number 5. Connections opted to skip the Rebel at Oaklawn because the horse does not care for the surface, well he sure like the surface at Turfway Park. Hard Spun put together an impressive effort as he drew clear winning easy. The most impressive part about the win was the strong gallop out past the 1 ¼ mark, always a positive. Breaking from post 10, he just relaxed right off the pace and opened up as he turned for home. This horse pretty much just cruised until the stretch where he turned it on. Visually he was a good, as one would hope for at this stage of his development. Great looking colt will aim for the ultra competitive Bluegrass for his final prep before the Kentucky Derby. As a May foal there is still upside for even more improvement.
6(5) Any Given Saturday- Any Given Saturday ran a very solid race in just losing out to Street Sense. He has once again taken another step forward in his progression. He was a little wide in the Tampa Bay Derby when he took on Street Sense who was to his inside. Horse moves up the list where he debuted at number two. He galloped out after the Tampa Derby relatively well. The 1 1/8 Bluegrass and rematch with Street Sense looms. Horse has showed gameness in two nose loses to two of the top ranked 3 year olds in the country. Horse has upside and is battle tested. Still needs to stretch out as many others do to, so far so good. Bluegrass next.
7)(6) Street Sense- Saying his 2007 debut was a success might be a bit of an understatement. He won the Tampa Bay Derby is bombastic style nosing out the ever-game Any Given Saturday in a stirring stretch battle. It was a huge effort off a 4-month layoff. He once again got a nice trip, but showed his ability digging in for the win, as he set a new course record at Tampa Bay Down. Any record at Tampa Bay has to be taken with a grain of salt, but nonetheless it is a record. Huge efforts off layoffs can be a detriment for a horse. Winning off that layoff against a horse like Any Given Saturday is not an easy task. This one has talent for sure. His next start is the Bluegrass in where he will meet Any Given Saturday again and Great Hunter in what should be a great race. Bluegrass next.
8 (7) Circular Quay- This horse has had many excuses. The BC Juvy he was up against it and the Risen Star was a debacle for him, as he had to avoid fallen foes. At last in the Louisiana Derby that wonderful power kick I have liked from early on was on display as he put together one of the better efforts in any prep race so far this year. Buckled down, kicked clear, and won the Louisiana Derby. His stock is once again back up. Solid 2-year-old foundation for this guy. At this point is certainly a major contender again. Still has to prove he can be as effective running longer and there is no reason to think he will not be. His late running style could be problematic in a race like the Kentucky Derby. Dad won the Derby as well. The Wood Memorial is a possibility. Wood Memorial next.
9)(9)Notional-Risen Star winner was not affected by the mishap. However might have stopped others from their best bid. Drew clear winning from the far outside 12 post, which is not an easy task. He was in a large field and handled it like a pro. So far he has a nice group going forward. As the distances have gotten longer, he has handled it nicely.
10)(10) Liquidity -He battled into contention in the Louisiana Derby before tiring and falling out of the race. Ran reasonably well, but took a step backwards at this point off the lack luster finish. Horse is coming off two hard fought races against Stormello and Ravel. Will need to show he can stay on going longer.
11)(11) King of the Roxy- Hutcheson Stake’s winner for Todd Pletcher on the FOY under card. Horse was 4 wide and drew clear to win the race with ease. Has raced well in the past and put it all together in the Hutcheson Stakes. Connections have opted to take their chances with him on the Derby trail. The Santa Anita Derby is a target.
12) (-) Curlin - Debuts on the list after winning in his first try going two turns in the Rebel. He was purchased for 3.5 million after his maiden breaker at Gulfstream and showed why. Horse has some talent as he won the Rebel drawing off for the win. Curlin wins maiden and than get the Grade III Rebel which is not an easy task. Lightly races colt is up against schedule wise for the Derby. That would be a tough task at this point. This horse has every right to continue to improve. The Preakness Stakes might be a viable option for owners that might take that route here. Still drifted a bit in the stretch, but corrected quickly.
Knocking on the Door-Adore the Gold falls from the 12 spot to here, ran a tiring 4th in the FOY. Bwana Bull big closing winner of the El Camino Derby, Dominican strong closing winner of the Rushaway Stakes on the Lanesend undercard, Law Breaker debuts here as well, Chelokee- Nice allowance win at Gulfstream, Day Pass ran decent against older in Dubai, Cowtown Cat Gotham winner. Cobalt Blue sharp looking son of Golden Missile won the San Felipe is easy front running style, but a good-looking chestnut with potential. Song Of Navarone winner of the Winstar Derby.
Ravel- is off the Derby trail due to a leg injury