Who Is Gonna Win The Derby?
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ratherrapid
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Rokeby Forever
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A deep field?
Long layoffs? Two preps? Three lifetime starts? Some with just one win?
Five years ago, more than half this field would have been tossed at "no chance!" LOL!!!
Long layoffs? Two preps? Three lifetime starts? Some with just one win?
Five years ago, more than half this field would have been tossed at "no chance!" LOL!!!
What synthetics are to California racing:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gb0mxcpPOU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gb0mxcpPOU
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Rokeby Forever
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This year, Barbaro's five week layoff wouldn't have even made the news. LOL!
The racing world has shown that owners and trainers want to run in only two races...the BC Juvie and the KY Derby. So, why bother running all these preps and baby races...let's run just the BC Juvie and KY Derby from now on.
The racing world has shown that owners and trainers want to run in only two races...the BC Juvie and the KY Derby. So, why bother running all these preps and baby races...let's run just the BC Juvie and KY Derby from now on.
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ratherrapid
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ratherrapid wrote:Respectfully disagree. Just which of these do you consider dogs Rokeby and Sam?
The ten I throw out in that contest Friday night
And I didn't say they were dogs (and I REALLY wish people would stop implying I said something I didn't. I word most of my posts very carefully and very deliberately, so don't read what isn't there), just that in this race, under these conditions, there's at least 7 horses in there who have no chance and don't belong... just as there are a number of no-hopers every year.
They might very good middling stakes horses... but they aren't good enough to do what's going to be asked of them on Saturday. Not yet anyway.
It's the vanity entries that annoy the hell out of me. Anyone remember all the horses Perez threw to the wolves back in the late 80s/early 90s? Or Wayne Gretzky's maiden. I swear, this is the only race in the country, maybe even the world, that makes incredibly smart people act really stupid. If this were any other race on the calendar, do you really think horses like Seaside Retreat or Storm Treasure would have bothered? Hell, Flashy Bull, for all his board hype, didn't belong either. It's one thing to take on 1 or 2 of the top 3yos in a 5-8 horse field, it's something else entirely to take on the top 10 nationally ranked 3yos in a field of 20. Apparently some people don't care if they run 14th in a field of 20 because "I have a Derby horse!"
Feh... whatever. I'd rather have a Belmont horse.
And don't kid yourself... flukes win the Derby. Just because it wins or places, doesn't mean it should have been there. It just means the horse got lucky. Anyone heard from Steppenwolfer lately?
We need more real horsemen like Whittingham... who refused to go unless he TRULY felt the horse was good enough. 60 years as a trainer and how many Derby starters did he have? 4? And won 2. THAT'S someone who respected the race and its tradition. Not guys like Pletcher who throw anything and every thing they can at it hoping something wins.
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Stevie Belmont
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Rokeby Forever
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Actually Sam, Charlie Whittingham did get bitten toward the end of his career with Derby Fever when he entered Numerous. And I forgot about those Robert Perez horses from Panama....he also ran Cupecoy's Joy. LOL!
RatherRapid...I never said they were "dogs." This is a group of lightly raced, untested horses with trainers that get hives when they have to enter a horse in a race. I don't see how lightly raced horses working in :58 all the time will get them ready for 1 1/4 mile, and I don't like how many horses have been brought up to the Derby. Every entrant has connections that want to race the horse in all three TC races within 5 weeks. That's interesting, because a lot of these horses haven't run three races in the last six months! Do you think any of them are fit enough for the TC?
Curlin has run three races including winning a weak Grade II. Nice way to ruin a colt like that...totally inexperienced and racing from Post 2 in a 20 horse race...does anyone think about the horse any more, or just the trophy?
I think horses that run in the KY Derby should be entered because they deserve to be there, not just because they qualify. The race has become a more "owner" race than "horse race"...and jerk with a horse that's made $100,000 will enter the race for the hell of it and no other reason.
Sam is right...the old time guys wouldn't run a horse in the KY Derby unless they thought they could win it. Shug McGaughey is still like that, as is Michael Matz. Guys that enter something year after year just to keep personal streaks going is Hollywood bullshit...not racing!
And Sam, if you want a better example that Whittingham, how about Mack Miller? He went 25 years without running a colt in the Derby. When he finally did, he entered Sea Hero. 13:1 on him was better than insider trading. LOL!
RatherRapid...I never said they were "dogs." This is a group of lightly raced, untested horses with trainers that get hives when they have to enter a horse in a race. I don't see how lightly raced horses working in :58 all the time will get them ready for 1 1/4 mile, and I don't like how many horses have been brought up to the Derby. Every entrant has connections that want to race the horse in all three TC races within 5 weeks. That's interesting, because a lot of these horses haven't run three races in the last six months! Do you think any of them are fit enough for the TC?
Curlin has run three races including winning a weak Grade II. Nice way to ruin a colt like that...totally inexperienced and racing from Post 2 in a 20 horse race...does anyone think about the horse any more, or just the trophy?
I think horses that run in the KY Derby should be entered because they deserve to be there, not just because they qualify. The race has become a more "owner" race than "horse race"...and jerk with a horse that's made $100,000 will enter the race for the hell of it and no other reason.
Sam is right...the old time guys wouldn't run a horse in the KY Derby unless they thought they could win it. Shug McGaughey is still like that, as is Michael Matz. Guys that enter something year after year just to keep personal streaks going is Hollywood bullshit...not racing!
And Sam, if you want a better example that Whittingham, how about Mack Miller? He went 25 years without running a colt in the Derby. When he finally did, he entered Sea Hero. 13:1 on him was better than insider trading. LOL!
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ratherrapid
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Rokeby, then are you saying the field is talented but lightly raced? untalented and lightly raced? unsure i'm quite following. by "deep field" I meant talented and also well trained.
while i see the point about the 5f breezes, there's a big difference in this year's training, even compared to a year ago. most of these horses are breezing or racing once a week. Street Sense has been in this pattern since January. This compares to the last 10 years where most of the derby field received an occasional breeze or race. Unknown for sure, but, to me this is the best conditioned Derby field since I've been following it. I'm unsure how throwing in one more three year old race would change the fitness level all that much.
The only horses that i question whether they belong are the kaplan horses and that's just from their fat out of shape appearance. I read this mantra about reserving the Derby for a certain level of accomplishment. To me, that's the Breeder's Cup--a championship series. For myself the Derby is where everybody's dream and time, effort and money may come to bear. I've no personal problem with anybody entering any horses provided the horse is fit and appropriately trained. If they can get in, more power to them. Leave the Wittinghams and his hollywood deep pockets out of it and bring on Jamie Sanders would be my view.
while i see the point about the 5f breezes, there's a big difference in this year's training, even compared to a year ago. most of these horses are breezing or racing once a week. Street Sense has been in this pattern since January. This compares to the last 10 years where most of the derby field received an occasional breeze or race. Unknown for sure, but, to me this is the best conditioned Derby field since I've been following it. I'm unsure how throwing in one more three year old race would change the fitness level all that much.
The only horses that i question whether they belong are the kaplan horses and that's just from their fat out of shape appearance. I read this mantra about reserving the Derby for a certain level of accomplishment. To me, that's the Breeder's Cup--a championship series. For myself the Derby is where everybody's dream and time, effort and money may come to bear. I've no personal problem with anybody entering any horses provided the horse is fit and appropriately trained. If they can get in, more power to them. Leave the Wittinghams and his hollywood deep pockets out of it and bring on Jamie Sanders would be my view.
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Rokeby Forever
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RatherRapid....yes, I'm saying this field is talented but lightly raced.
Do you honestly think working a horse in :58 once a week and galloping it 1 1/4 mile most mornings is a way to get a horse fit for the KY Derby...especially when it's had 2 starts since January? It wasn't long ago that Dave Cross with Sunny's Halo gave the horse only 2 preps...and worked the horse a mile before and after them. Affirmed worked 1 1/8th mile a week before the Derby and came back with a :59 only three days before the race.
Long breezes don't get trainers in front of the TV camera....works like :57 3/5 for Hard Spun got Larry Jones all the media he could handle. That's what the race has become all about.
Do you honestly think working a horse in :58 once a week and galloping it 1 1/4 mile most mornings is a way to get a horse fit for the KY Derby...especially when it's had 2 starts since January? It wasn't long ago that Dave Cross with Sunny's Halo gave the horse only 2 preps...and worked the horse a mile before and after them. Affirmed worked 1 1/8th mile a week before the Derby and came back with a :59 only three days before the race.
Long breezes don't get trainers in front of the TV camera....works like :57 3/5 for Hard Spun got Larry Jones all the media he could handle. That's what the race has become all about.
Long breezes don't get trainers in front of the TV camera....works like :57 3/5 for Hard Spun got Larry Jones all the media he could handle. That's what the race has become all about.
Interesting. But I was just thinking today that media attention pre-derby seems to be a curse.
Is it the distraction of all the cameras and attention on the horese and connections that can wind up the favorites, leading them to perform poorly?
All shouting does is make you lose your voice.
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ratherrapid
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Toccett read the Funnycide book to get an account of Barclay Tagg going postal over the media at Churchill. there, the main problem may be allowing the horses their normal rest. big probolem maybe.
Rokeby: everyone of these modern trainers would have us believe the :59 breezes are sufficient preparation including Wayne (I don't work horses) Lukas. To me, of course it's ridiculous to think a horse would be conditioned for 1.25 miles with a series of 5f breezes. and truthfully, in past derby's what do we see but maybe one or two actually running all the way to the wire.
BUT, this year's training Pletcher's horses have looked very conditioned--Scatt Daddy in Florida etc. Nafzger from the reports is throwing in two mile gallops and two minute works. im an interested observer. witholding judgement. my concern is the move from the soft track to the hard, the :59 training and some resulting catastrophe.
Rokeby: everyone of these modern trainers would have us believe the :59 breezes are sufficient preparation including Wayne (I don't work horses) Lukas. To me, of course it's ridiculous to think a horse would be conditioned for 1.25 miles with a series of 5f breezes. and truthfully, in past derby's what do we see but maybe one or two actually running all the way to the wire.
BUT, this year's training Pletcher's horses have looked very conditioned--Scatt Daddy in Florida etc. Nafzger from the reports is throwing in two mile gallops and two minute works. im an interested observer. witholding judgement. my concern is the move from the soft track to the hard, the :59 training and some resulting catastrophe.
Last edited by ratherrapid on Thu May 03, 2007 1:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
In humans, lack of sleep is known to cause balance problems. Fordham U did a study on that once with very convincing results.
It would be nice to have balance and agility when one is likely to get body slammed by any one or more of 19 other starters on a stressful day . . .no?
It seems like those horses in big races that always have a camera in their face flop in the race. I have no stats to back that up, but when a "Heartwarming Story" is done about a horse, it seems to be the kiss of death.
This is why I don't think Street Sense will be on the board. I betcha he'll be the most hyped.
It would be nice to have balance and agility when one is likely to get body slammed by any one or more of 19 other starters on a stressful day . . .no?
It seems like those horses in big races that always have a camera in their face flop in the race. I have no stats to back that up, but when a "Heartwarming Story" is done about a horse, it seems to be the kiss of death.
This is why I don't think Street Sense will be on the board. I betcha he'll be the most hyped.
All shouting does is make you lose your voice.
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ratherrapid
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Rokeby Forever
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That's a good question, Toccet. How's this for a theory:
Ever since these 24/7 Cable news channels and websites came along, the stations have to think of ways to kill all that time...how much goes on in the world on a daily basis that can fill up 24 hours a day? Now with so much MORE exposure and limelight, I think some trainers get jealous of only certain guys getting all the spotlight, so they'll do something to get all the cameras focused on them....and all these stations are more than happy to give them exposure over a "story."
How else do you explain seeing Larry Jones working Hard Spun that insane :57 3/5 work? Remember when Adore The Gold had the same work before the Florida Derby and ran terribly...and everyone blamed the work? Why didn't Jones take a lesson from that? He got his face on EVERY channel because of it....maybe that was the top priority.
Ever since these 24/7 Cable news channels and websites came along, the stations have to think of ways to kill all that time...how much goes on in the world on a daily basis that can fill up 24 hours a day? Now with so much MORE exposure and limelight, I think some trainers get jealous of only certain guys getting all the spotlight, so they'll do something to get all the cameras focused on them....and all these stations are more than happy to give them exposure over a "story."
How else do you explain seeing Larry Jones working Hard Spun that insane :57 3/5 work? Remember when Adore The Gold had the same work before the Florida Derby and ran terribly...and everyone blamed the work? Why didn't Jones take a lesson from that? He got his face on EVERY channel because of it....maybe that was the top priority.