Let's Chalk it Up
Moderators: Roguelet, hpkingjr, WaveMaster
Let's Chalk it Up
We all know folks try to win some money with longshots thrown in there, try to beat the favorite,etc. What is the chalkiest result you can see happening? Obviously some horses are overrated, underrated, and some we just don't know. Odds could change, who knows. Are there horses you expected to get more play that aren't and you figure on a less chalky time of it? Do you see someone's racing style just too compromised for them to live up to their chalkiness from that post position? Basically what's the lowest legit trifecta or whatever you expect could happen based on what could realistically go down during the race?
"Time flies like an arrow, fruit flies like a banana"
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geowarrior
- Leading Sire
- Posts: 3593
- Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2006 12:45 pm
- Location: Spokane, WA
geowarrior wrote:Um what does chalky mean in this context?
Well for example a Street Sense/Curlin exacta would be pretty chalky, being the top 2 choices as of this post. Basically the crowd's gonna have horses that are expected to do well and are taking lots of money. For every FuPeg that wins, you end up with a Closing Argument and a Giacomo adding to the payout. Really I'm asking of the well-regarded horses getting $$$ support, what are the lowest priced horses you expect to get up there?
Say you didn't like Curlin or didn't like Street Sense and said 'hey no way, X horse is overrated won't the board...the lowest priced top 3 that could reasonably hit the board are Hard Spun/Scat Daddy/Tiago.' which are 2 horses at 10-1 and one at 6-1. Maybe you think the top 3 choices thus far really could all hit the board with Street Sense/Curlin/Scat Daddy.
You're not trying to find a way for Zanjero to hit just to make money in other words.
"Time flies like an arrow, fruit flies like a banana"