Hiya Pete,
I would think that Exchange Rate would stand for more for two reasons if syndicated:
1) If the syndicate supports him with better mares, he'll need a higher fee to justify it. I don't think many members would send a $100,000 mare to a stallion still standing for $10,000. Sanan has plenty of well bred mares that Lukas bought for him (God, did Lukas put a hurting on this guy LOL!), so he can support him pretty well with a foundation on top of what the syndicate can supply.
2) If the syndicate supports Exchange Rate foals at the sales, his increased fee can certainly be justified by higher sales results. As of now, his sales results put him in the $20,000 stallion category.
Will Exchange Rate have continued success? I'm assuming his book in 2006 and 2007 was better than his previous books, so if nothing more, his yearlings will sell even better than before (theoretically), and his runners, theoretically, should be better with stronger books. And if breeders like Hobeau have continued to support him, maybe another Swap Fliparoo is in the Jerkens barn right now.
Is Exchange Rate likely to completely flop in 2008? Any sire can, but I think he's on the way up with mares as opposed to on the way down. From that angle, I don't see why.
Your turn, Martian! LOL!
Stallions...the Who'll Be Hot When You Intend To Sell game
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Rokeby Forever
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Hi Pete:
Thanks for that info on Malibu Moon. I didn't realize his crops were so big in the last two years. That ought to make things interesting. I haven't seen any information on the CI for the KY mares he's bred. Country Life seems to think that it will be a much better crop of mares (but they are often humble when you talk to them).
I saw that he had three 2yo-in-training go for $350,000, $400,000+ and $400,000+ in a recent sale, so that seems to me that a pinhooker could make a good profit on that from a $73,000 yearling. I'm not sure where those three 2yos came from, if they were pinhooks, etc. At $40,000 stud fee, he doesn't meet the three-times-stud-fee rule of thumb. Perhaps the breeder who sold for $73,000 didn't make out like a bandit, but if MM came up with a couple more graded stakes winners this year, I'm not sure that they would ask for more in stud fees so soon. And a breeder might see a really good ROI in 2010.
Thanks for that info on Malibu Moon. I didn't realize his crops were so big in the last two years. That ought to make things interesting. I haven't seen any information on the CI for the KY mares he's bred. Country Life seems to think that it will be a much better crop of mares (but they are often humble when you talk to them).
I saw that he had three 2yo-in-training go for $350,000, $400,000+ and $400,000+ in a recent sale, so that seems to me that a pinhooker could make a good profit on that from a $73,000 yearling. I'm not sure where those three 2yos came from, if they were pinhooks, etc. At $40,000 stud fee, he doesn't meet the three-times-stud-fee rule of thumb. Perhaps the breeder who sold for $73,000 didn't make out like a bandit, but if MM came up with a couple more graded stakes winners this year, I'm not sure that they would ask for more in stud fees so soon. And a breeder might see a really good ROI in 2010.
"When I am on my deathbed, I imagine I will say, 'Thank God I did that'" - Arthur Hancock, on buying back Gato del Sol from Europe after Exceller was killed in a slaughterhouse in Sweden.
hi Rokeby Forever...hello Pete...hi all
When Exchange Rate retired to Padua...he stood for an advertised stud fee that even farm Manager Bruce Hill indicated to many, was higher than he would liked to have stood him for. Not that he wasn't a nice young stallion prospect, but Mgr Hill made no bones about it that the stud fee that Satish Sanan's daughter supposedly imposed (why not, her Dad owns the place) on ExRAte would NOT appeal to many Florida breeders.
Hill was correct, and despite quantity discounts being available to breeders, Exchange Rate did not attract the quantity of mares that Padua would have liked. Better late than never though...the stud fee was reduced at least twice (to my recollection) to what Mgr Hill wanted it to be at the outset, and in 2004 he stood for a more digestible $7,500. Today he stands for $10,000 and is (to my way of thinking) very good value.
That said, and without getting into all the specifics, I would expect that if history repeats...Satish Sanan will only make a deal to move the horse to Kentucky IF and when it can be done EXACTLY as he wants.
Arguably, that's the way it was when a deal was made with Three Chimneys to move Yes It's True to Kentucky. As a result of that deal. Three Chimneys was reportedly first offered Sanan's champion 2-yo colt Vindication. In that colt's case, the numbers were apparently not agreeable to 3C and a deal was struck with Hill n Dale. Sikura apparently committed the big bucks, even though Sanan limited the number of mares that could go to the horse.
Hill n Dale apparently committed HUGE dollars to get Sanan's Vindication. As a result, I would expect that Hill n Dale might have the inside track if there's a possible deal to be made.
But hold that thought...reportedly Sanan is partners with Jess Jackson in Curlin, and Jackson bought into Stronach's Ghostzapper, and Jackson also bought 1000 acres from Stronach which is adjacent to Stronach's Adena Florida, and Sanan has Padua Florida. Seems like Sanan and Jackson and Stronach are something like fraternity brothers
Whew...I've got to take a breath.
With that in mind...I would guess that conversation between Sanan and his partner Jackson, and Jackson and his partner Stronach might have led to conversation between the three guys...and it wouldn't surprise me if the possibility of Jackson and Stronach and Sanan doing something together with Exchange Rate, hasn't been discussed. Are they the Three Amigos ?
Bottom line...I could see Sanan planting seeds in the minds of a couple of players (if he hasn't already) that they might get Exchange Rate, if they're interested. The initial list of potential players (for Exchange Rate) might be 1- Sikura/Hill n Dale, 2-Three Chimneys/Clay, and 3- Jackson/Stronach-Adena Springs.
I expect that Sanan will look for the deal which would balance the most guaranteed money for him along with the most control (of decisions related to the horse) that an interested party might be willing to relinquish.
Other possible stallion facilities would certainly find Exchange Rate an appealing addition to their stallion roster, but I would not expect Sanan to look beyond the three mentioned above, unless he is convinced that there is more (money and control) to be had than any of those three have offered.
Assuming Exchange Rate moves...I could see him standing for somewhere in the range of $20k to $40k. It's a wide range, but many things would likely come into play.
Each of the three farms I mentioned can play big...but it might all boil down to what Sanan wants to accomplish. I sense that Sikura would be willing and able to buy a chunk of the horse himself, but (depending on the money of course) if Sanan puts a limit on the number of mares to be covered, it might be less attractive to him.
As for Three Chimneys/Clay, I sense they would commit to the horse (assuming the numbers made sense to them) and would then inflate the share prices and offer some to their rolodex of clients.
As for a Jackson/Stronach deal...I sense that they too could be very live, and might be open to a wide array of possibilities/trades/whatever.
I sense that Sanan is in the driver's seat with this fine young stallion...and will likely milk it for all he possibly can. For what it's worth, I'd venture a guess that he's likely the poor kid on the block, compared to the players mentioned above.
Getting back to the topic at hand...I would expect that the iron is VERY hot right now (re Exchange Rate). That said...Sanan might be wise to make a move very soon...while his horse is Hot and those with the big bucks might be confident that he's going to get Hotter Hotter Hotter.
As we all know, the sizzle might fizzle...and I don't sense Sanan will take that chance...
...but rather capitalize on the sizzle.
Thoughts?
Respectfully
When Exchange Rate retired to Padua...he stood for an advertised stud fee that even farm Manager Bruce Hill indicated to many, was higher than he would liked to have stood him for. Not that he wasn't a nice young stallion prospect, but Mgr Hill made no bones about it that the stud fee that Satish Sanan's daughter supposedly imposed (why not, her Dad owns the place) on ExRAte would NOT appeal to many Florida breeders.
Hill was correct, and despite quantity discounts being available to breeders, Exchange Rate did not attract the quantity of mares that Padua would have liked. Better late than never though...the stud fee was reduced at least twice (to my recollection) to what Mgr Hill wanted it to be at the outset, and in 2004 he stood for a more digestible $7,500. Today he stands for $10,000 and is (to my way of thinking) very good value.
That said, and without getting into all the specifics, I would expect that if history repeats...Satish Sanan will only make a deal to move the horse to Kentucky IF and when it can be done EXACTLY as he wants.
Arguably, that's the way it was when a deal was made with Three Chimneys to move Yes It's True to Kentucky. As a result of that deal. Three Chimneys was reportedly first offered Sanan's champion 2-yo colt Vindication. In that colt's case, the numbers were apparently not agreeable to 3C and a deal was struck with Hill n Dale. Sikura apparently committed the big bucks, even though Sanan limited the number of mares that could go to the horse.
Hill n Dale apparently committed HUGE dollars to get Sanan's Vindication. As a result, I would expect that Hill n Dale might have the inside track if there's a possible deal to be made.
But hold that thought...reportedly Sanan is partners with Jess Jackson in Curlin, and Jackson bought into Stronach's Ghostzapper, and Jackson also bought 1000 acres from Stronach which is adjacent to Stronach's Adena Florida, and Sanan has Padua Florida. Seems like Sanan and Jackson and Stronach are something like fraternity brothers
Whew...I've got to take a breath.
With that in mind...I would guess that conversation between Sanan and his partner Jackson, and Jackson and his partner Stronach might have led to conversation between the three guys...and it wouldn't surprise me if the possibility of Jackson and Stronach and Sanan doing something together with Exchange Rate, hasn't been discussed. Are they the Three Amigos
?
Bottom line...I could see Sanan planting seeds in the minds of a couple of players (if he hasn't already) that they might get Exchange Rate, if they're interested. The initial list of potential players (for Exchange Rate) might be 1- Sikura/Hill n Dale, 2-Three Chimneys/Clay, and 3- Jackson/Stronach-Adena Springs.
I expect that Sanan will look for the deal which would balance the most guaranteed money for him along with the most control (of decisions related to the horse) that an interested party might be willing to relinquish.
Other possible stallion facilities would certainly find Exchange Rate an appealing addition to their stallion roster, but I would not expect Sanan to look beyond the three mentioned above, unless he is convinced that there is more (money and control) to be had than any of those three have offered.
Assuming Exchange Rate moves...I could see him standing for somewhere in the range of $20k to $40k. It's a wide range, but many things would likely come into play.
Each of the three farms I mentioned can play big...but it might all boil down to what Sanan wants to accomplish. I sense that Sikura would be willing and able to buy a chunk of the horse himself, but (depending on the money of course) if Sanan puts a limit on the number of mares to be covered, it might be less attractive to him.
As for Three Chimneys/Clay, I sense they would commit to the horse (assuming the numbers made sense to them) and would then inflate the share prices and offer some to their rolodex of clients.
As for a Jackson/Stronach deal...I sense that they too could be very live, and might be open to a wide array of possibilities/trades/whatever.
I sense that Sanan is in the driver's seat with this fine young stallion...and will likely milk it for all he possibly can. For what it's worth, I'd venture a guess that he's likely the poor kid on the block, compared to the players mentioned above.
Getting back to the topic at hand...I would expect that the iron is VERY hot right now (re Exchange Rate). That said...Sanan might be wise to make a move very soon...while his horse is Hot and those with the big bucks might be confident that he's going to get Hotter Hotter Hotter.
As we all know, the sizzle might fizzle...and I don't sense Sanan will take that chance...
...but rather capitalize on the sizzle.
Thoughts?
Respectfully
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Rokeby Forever
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As a HUGE Vindication fan, I think I remember at the time that one of the conditions that Sanan was considering for Vindication was not just the price for the breeding rights, but how much money the farm would put into promoting Vindication. They obviously had some sort of an agreement with Hill N Dale over that issue, because I still see multiple page ads for him sometimes.
"When I am on my deathbed, I imagine I will say, 'Thank God I did that'" - Arthur Hancock, on buying back Gato del Sol from Europe after Exceller was killed in a slaughterhouse in Sweden.
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brogers
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FOS wrote: Arguably, that's the way it was when a deal was made with Three Chimneys to move Yes It's True to Kentucky. As a result of that deal. Three Chimneys was reportedly first offered Sanan's champion 2-yo colt Vindication. In that colt's case, the numbers were apparently not agreeable to 3C and a deal was struck with Hill n Dale. Sikura apparently committed the big bucks, even though Sanan limited the number of mares that could go to the horse.
FOS, that timeline doesn't work. Vindication was well and truly in place at Hill n'Dale before Yes It's True was moved to KY. It was a year after Vindications retirement that Yes It's True moved. No doubt Three Chimnets was interested in Vindication but they are seperate events that occurred the other way around to what you suggest.
FOS wrote: Hill n Dale apparently committed HUGE dollars to get Sanan's Vindication. As a result, I would expect that Hill n Dale might have the inside track if there's a possible deal to be made.
But hold that thought...reportedly Sanan is partners with Jess Jackson in Curlin, and Jackson bought into Stronach's Ghostzapper, and Jackson also bought 1000 acres from Stronach which is adjacent to Stronach's Adena Florida, and Sanan has Padua Florida. Seems like Sanan and Jackson and Stronach are something like fraternity brothers
With that in mind...I would guess that conversation between Sanan and his partner Jackson, and Jackson and his partner Stronach might have led to conversation between the three guys...and it wouldn't surprise me if the possibility of Jackson and Stronach and Sanan doing something together with Exchange Rate, hasn't been discussed. Are they the Three Amigos
Bottom line...I could see Sanan planting seeds in the minds of a couple of players (if he hasn't already) that they might get Exchange Rate, if they're interested. The initial list of potential players (for Exchange Rate) might be 1- Sikura/Hill n Dale, 2-Three Chimneys/Clay, and 3- Jackson/Stronach-Adena Springs.
In a figure of speech....the gate was opened a while ago and the horse is already galloped at least a mile....you are well behind the action. Three Chimneys bought a quarter of the horse at the end of 2006 and all going well he will move to KY in 08.
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Rokeby Forever
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hi brogers
What's a bit of brain-freeze, or maybe dyslexia, between friends? Clearly Three Chimneys was offered Vindication, but it was also clear that they were NOT willing to pay/agree to what Sanan was looking for.
"all going well"...what does that mean?
Live and learn...are you telling us that if Exchange Rate moves to Kentucky in '08 he'll definitely be going to Three Chimneys...or is the door still open that he might go elsewhere, since 3/4 of ExRate is owned by others (based on the info that you supplied that "Three Chimneys bought a quarter of the horse at the end of 2006...")?
Assuming ExRate moves to Three Chimneys...I might expect seasons to and shares/fractional interests in the horse will be inflated significantly. Isn't that their style? Shares in Point Given were reportedly offered to lucky 3C clients, for a mere $1mil per...and shares in Smarty Jones were reportedly offered to lucky 3C clients for a mere $650k per. What a bargain, don't you think?
It seems that some farms inflate young stallions stud fees/shares to the point that the lemon is often squeezed so dry (as Horatio Luro might say), that the chances of having a droplet of success (or better) are arguably slim. Of course there is always the hope (or maybe a dream) of a minor miracle or divine intervention.
Horses at Three Chimneys like (for example) Point Given at $1mil per share (and an initial advertised stud fee of $125k)...and Smarty Jones at $650k per share (and an initial advertised stud fee of $100k) arguably leave little room for breeders/share buyers (in general) to come out on the long end of the stick.
Respectfully...even at Taylor Made (your home-team facility) it'll be interesting to see how Hot (or Not) the young TM stallion addition by the name of Officer might be in a couple of years. And how those that bred to him for $40k fare.
It'll also be interesting to see how those who bred to Forestry for $125k will fare (in general) with their foals/yearlings/in-foal mares. Will he Hot Hot Hot or Not Not Not when sellers (of those foals/yearlings/in-foal mares) test the waters at the sales?
That said...I wish all parties, including you, the best.
Respectfully
brogers wrote:No doubt Three Chimnets was interested in Vindication but they are seperate events that occurred the other way around to what you suggest.
What's a bit of brain-freeze, or maybe dyslexia, between friends? Clearly Three Chimneys was offered Vindication, but it was also clear that they were NOT willing to pay/agree to what Sanan was looking for.
brogers wrote:Three Chimneys bought a quarter of the horse (Exchange Rate) at the end of 2006 and all going well he will move to KY in 08.
"all going well"...what does that mean?
Live and learn...are you telling us that if Exchange Rate moves to Kentucky in '08 he'll definitely be going to Three Chimneys...or is the door still open that he might go elsewhere, since 3/4 of ExRate is owned by others (based on the info that you supplied that "Three Chimneys bought a quarter of the horse at the end of 2006...")?
Assuming ExRate moves to Three Chimneys...I might expect seasons to and shares/fractional interests in the horse will be inflated significantly. Isn't that their style? Shares in Point Given were reportedly offered to lucky 3C clients, for a mere $1mil per...and shares in Smarty Jones were reportedly offered to lucky 3C clients for a mere $650k per. What a bargain, don't you think?
It seems that some farms inflate young stallions stud fees/shares to the point that the lemon is often squeezed so dry (as Horatio Luro might say), that the chances of having a droplet of success (or better) are arguably slim. Of course there is always the hope (or maybe a dream) of a minor miracle or divine intervention.
Horses at Three Chimneys like (for example) Point Given at $1mil per share (and an initial advertised stud fee of $125k)...and Smarty Jones at $650k per share (and an initial advertised stud fee of $100k) arguably leave little room for breeders/share buyers (in general) to come out on the long end of the stick.
Respectfully...even at Taylor Made (your home-team facility) it'll be interesting to see how Hot (or Not) the young TM stallion addition by the name of Officer might be in a couple of years. And how those that bred to him for $40k fare.
It'll also be interesting to see how those who bred to Forestry for $125k will fare (in general) with their foals/yearlings/in-foal mares. Will he Hot Hot Hot or Not Not Not when sellers (of those foals/yearlings/in-foal mares) test the waters at the sales?
That said...I wish all parties, including you, the best.
Respectfully
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Rokeby Forever
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Hi FOS,
I'm wondering what you might think of Officer at $40,000.
Back in November, a certain gentleman from Taylor Made posted:
"Guts Game cruised home at Aqueduct today to become the 20th individual winner for Officer this year. It is worth noting the class of these horses as ALL 20 have won in Maiden Special Weight company.
Guts Game's owners include Lebron James, Tom Brady and Jay-Z."
Six months later, "the class of these (20) horses" has earned ONE Graded stakes win...tying Officer with Littleexpectations (standing for $7,500) for second year stallion Graded stakes wins.
Through today, Officer has had 40 runners in 2007, but only 15 winners. What happened to all the "class" Officer runners from 2006?
I'm wondering if the name "Littleexpectations" might apply to Officer.
I'm wondering what you might think of Officer at $40,000.
Back in November, a certain gentleman from Taylor Made posted:
"Guts Game cruised home at Aqueduct today to become the 20th individual winner for Officer this year. It is worth noting the class of these horses as ALL 20 have won in Maiden Special Weight company.
Guts Game's owners include Lebron James, Tom Brady and Jay-Z."
Six months later, "the class of these (20) horses" has earned ONE Graded stakes win...tying Officer with Littleexpectations (standing for $7,500) for second year stallion Graded stakes wins.
Through today, Officer has had 40 runners in 2007, but only 15 winners. What happened to all the "class" Officer runners from 2006?
I'm wondering if the name "Littleexpectations" might apply to Officer.
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brogers
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FOS wrote:brogers wrote:Three Chimneys bought a quarter of the horse (Exchange Rate) at the end of 2006 and all going well he will move to KY in 08.
"all going well"...what does that mean?
Live and learn...are you telling us that if Exchange Rate moves to Kentucky in '08 he'll definitely be going to Three Chimneys...or is the door still open that he might go elsewhere, since 3/4 of ExRate is owned by others (based on the info that you supplied that "Three Chimneys bought a quarter of the horse at the end of 2006...")?
I don't work there so I don't know what they are thinking. They might elect to keep him in FL - I don't know. What I do know is if he moves to KY he goes to Three Chimneys, nowhere else.
Rokeby Forever wrote:Through today, Officer has had 40 runners in 2007, but only 15 winners. What happened to all the "class" Officer runners from 2006?
Officer's oldest crop are spring three year olds. From that crop he has 85 foals. 56 or 65% of these have already made it to the races with 30 of these winning races. 8 (or 9.5%) of this first crop have won stakes races with 12 stakes horses (co-leading of his crop). He already has an AEI of 1.85 with a CI of 1.45.
I am not sure where you see the fault in these numbers given that we are talking about a crop who are still just spring three year olds.
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Rokeby Forever
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Good morning, Mr Brogers,
AEI vs CI is now a consideration with Taylor Made Stallions? Funny you've never discussed it concerning Forestry and/or Unbridled's Song before...perhaps it was an oversight?
Back to your statement about "class"....Officer's top earner, Chief Officer, won the NY Breeders Futurity. That's a nice race to win, but does it indicate that Officer would do wonders standing within the NY Bred program?
Against The Law has had a nice 2007 season, winning the Dancin' At the Wire Stakes at Turf Paradise and finishing 2nd in prestigious Cactus Cup. I personally would have liked to have seen Against The Law walk away with the Cactus Cup trophy - I think the cactus needles were removed from it this year.
AEI vs CI is now a consideration with Taylor Made Stallions? Funny you've never discussed it concerning Forestry and/or Unbridled's Song before...perhaps it was an oversight?
Back to your statement about "class"....Officer's top earner, Chief Officer, won the NY Breeders Futurity. That's a nice race to win, but does it indicate that Officer would do wonders standing within the NY Bred program?
Against The Law has had a nice 2007 season, winning the Dancin' At the Wire Stakes at Turf Paradise and finishing 2nd in prestigious Cactus Cup. I personally would have liked to have seen Against The Law walk away with the Cactus Cup trophy - I think the cactus needles were removed from it this year.
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Rokeby Forever
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The National Treasure Stakes at Aqueduct this year was interesting. Gary (Contessa) had entered 3 of the 6 fillies in the race as favorites (Bare Dancer, My Kitty, and Sister Desiree), and late entered Officer in Pursuit because it was a small field and speed had done so well on the surface for the week prior. ...giving him 4 of the 7 fillies entered
Gary's Sister Desiree fought for the lead and Officer In Pursuit sat off the dueling leaders in 3rd and got a jump on the disadvantaged closers that day. If you ask Gary about that same race being run at Belmont today, he'd say that he'd expect a much different result - on that day at Aqueduct, all 7 races run prior to the National Treasure Stakes were won by horses that were racing on or near the lead that day.
Gary's Sister Desiree fought for the lead and Officer In Pursuit sat off the dueling leaders in 3rd and got a jump on the disadvantaged closers that day. If you ask Gary about that same race being run at Belmont today, he'd say that he'd expect a much different result - on that day at Aqueduct, all 7 races run prior to the National Treasure Stakes were won by horses that were racing on or near the lead that day.
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Rokeby Forever
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