Not For Love

griff · Postby **griff** » Fri Jun 01, 2007 1:10 pm

27% winners is under rated?/

griff

Playwithfire · Postby **Playwithfire** » Sun Jun 03, 2007 1:45 pm

kimberley mine wrote:He's a useful horse but for about the same money ($15k-$35k) you can get to Pleasant Tap, Langfuhr, Arch, City Zip, Quiet American, Gulch, Smoke Glacken, Silver Deputy, Stormy Atlantic, and Cozzene. The last three in particular really blow Not For Love (at his current fee) away.

Personally, given that he has 1 SW/1SP and 1 good winner out of Broad Brush mares plus a known affinity for son strains of Ribot, I like her with Cozzene. (Edit to add: the stakes winner is the current favourite for the Queens Plate!)

With Capote, not much since Matty G went to Washington but you have Dixie Union.

I think he's more than just a useful sire and outside of Silver Deputy, i wouldn't say anybody blows him away. He's got very favorable statistics to the stallions you've listed, particularly higher median earnings per horse, stakes horse%, 2yo winner %. The big "knock" is that he hasn't produced any millionaires yet, and he's generally a sire of sprinters so you won't be seeing his offspring in the Classics too often like a Gulch or Pleasant Tap.

I happen to be in the midst of compiling stats for sires and his jumped out at me the other day as I knew very little about him.

griff · Postby **griff** » Mon Jun 04, 2007 5:25 am

playwithfire

Check out the stats on Limit Out

The ones I found in the Mid Atlantic Thoroughbred were 80% winners from starters, 16% black type and 10% BTW and his 07 fee is $3,500.

Prospect Bay is another Mid Atlantic stallion with impressive states

I also think that it is important to consider these stats were not accommulated with G-1 Stakes winning dams

griff

Cree · Postby **Cree** » Mon Jun 04, 2007 11:27 am

He's got a lightning quick 3-year-old filly up at Hastings named Loving Laur. She just worked 1:11 and change this past weekend. She's run 3rd in both her starts, but is still learning.

Maven · Postby **Maven** » Mon Jun 04, 2007 11:39 am

I have a few breed to race broodmares to compliment my commercial mares and Limit Out does look attractive. The only problem is im not sure he's attractive enough to ship in from Florida.

griff · Postby **griff** » Mon Jun 04, 2007 2:12 pm

There's a web site that will allow transporters to bid for your business and it provides feed back from prior customers

It cost me $400 to ship a mare fr4om frederick MD to Lexington KY and I received later bids down to $350. She was picked up one afternoon, alid over in NC and was deliverd to Lexington the next afternoon..

one cove and she was in-foal.. We will probably send a private trailer to bring her home which is going to run $240 per mile.

griff

madelyn · Postby **madelyn** » Tue Jun 05, 2007 5:11 am

griff, I hope you mean $2.40 per mile. Is she going back to MD?

griff · Postby **griff** » Tue Jun 05, 2007 11:57 am

Yep, $2.40 per mile.. However, our guy is going to cordinateb picking her up when he brings a pony mare and foal back from Montana.. That must be one hell of a pony to ship from montana to maryland for $2.40 per mile.

I was going to bring Perfect Colours to my place in Yorkown, VA but that would have added 3 to 4 hours to her travel time plus about $300 to the transportaion bill. and we'd have had to move her to PA in September so the foal will qualify for the PABRED incentives..

She'll stay with at a partner's place in Winchester, VA until it's time to move her to PA in late September. She'll faol in PA and we plan to find a PA or WV stallion for 2008 which will probably be Limit Out. He's not commercail but I like what he's throwing.

griff

Monmouth Matt · Postby **Monmouth Matt** » Tue Jun 05, 2007 2:14 pm

What are the pros & cons on Louis Quatorze? He would seem to me to be a very attractive stallion at 10k for the MD/NY/NJ/ Pa. breeder. He has proven he can get the big horse. How is his offsprings conformation and soundness?

Maven · Postby **Maven** » Tue Jun 05, 2007 2:16 pm

He can certainly get a big horse, but I find him hard to recommend at 10k. There's just so many more solid stallions in the area for much less. The only reason to go to him is a commercial play, and im not even sure that's a good idea. What are his recent auction numbers?

justmares · Postby **justmares** » Tue Jun 05, 2007 5:54 pm

Griff...
About why NFL isn't in KY...I board two of my mares at Northview and the staff told me that NFL will stay in MD....a "commitment to MD breeding"...not that there haven't been "approaches" on moving him to KY.
If I had a mare free of MrP I would love to take her to him...alas I have a grandaughter and a great grandaughter of MrP....being new to the breeding game...I thought it was a little close.

justmares · Postby **justmares** » Tue Jun 05, 2007 5:55 pm

Griff...
About why NFL isn't in KY...I board two of my mares at Northview and the staff told me that NFL will stay in MD....a "commitment to MD breeding"...not that there haven't been "approaches" on moving him to KY.
If I had a mare free of MrP I would love to take her to him...alas I have a grandaughter and a great grandaughter of MrP....being new to the breeding game...I thought it was a little close.

griff · Postby **griff** » Wed Jun 06, 2007 3:51 am

Justmares

I originally bought Perfect Colours to breed to Not For Love and then noticed her sire's dam was a FULL sister to NFL I thought that and 2S X 4D to Mr P ws pushing the in-breeding thing too far. ..

Siphon at Pin Oaks Lane in PA seems to have some commercail value and I think Limit Out may become commercial if he can sustain his stats; i.e., 80% winners from starters, 16% black type and 10% BTW. .

griff

hpkingjr · Postby **hpkingjr** » Wed Jun 06, 2007 4:21 am

When I look at recent sales history, his numbers are a bit scary. His median sales' yearling price last year was $38,500.00. Take the $25K stud fee, add $12K for mare care, $3 K for foal care after weaning, $4K for sales prep and consignment fees plus $2K for vets, farriers and transport and WITHOUT the cost of your mare over half of the sellers lost money in the $5,000.00 to 10,000.00 range. Not a happy ending for two years of blood, sweat and tears.

It appears the safer play is the two year old in training route for him. They average around $100,000.00, with a median of $85,000.00. Colts and fillies seem to sell equally well. Much better chance to make money.

kimberley mine · Postby **kimberley mine** » Wed Jun 06, 2007 5:24 am

Playwithfire wrote:
I think he's more than just a useful sire and outside of Silver Deputy, i wouldn't say anybody blows him away. He's got very favorable statistics to the stallions you've listed, particularly higher median earnings per horse, stakes horse%, 2yo winner %.

His numbers are more or less statistically identical to Sky Classic's numbers, who stands for half Not For Love's fee. Care to guess who's who?

81% runners, 59% winners, 13% 2yo winners, 8% SW (36% of them graded), 14% stakes horses, Avg $74,000, Median $34,500.

71% runners, 54% winners, 12% 2yo winners, 6% SW (23% of them graded), 14% stakes horses, Avg $80,000, Median $45,000.

That number of graded stakes winners to overall stakes winners and (by comparison) lower percentage of stakes winners period is where Not For Love is really falling down here. The higher average and median imply that his kids are hard-knocking and run a lot (thus increasing both average and median). That's good, but not when you can get the same kind of horse for half the stud fee.

Compare this to Cozzene:

77% runners, 58% winners, 13% 2yo winners, 8% SW (44% of them graded), 16% stakes horses, Avg $112,514, Median $33,086. His top earner won over $3 million and he has 12 millionaire offspring. Those graded runners are of the highest quality, including one who just won the Japanese Oaks. His fee and his commercial appeal have slipped as he has aged, but he is a tremendous stallion and for the money just blows Not For Love clear out of the water.