Thoughts on Bernstein

[Rokeby Forever]

Horsenuts...about lightly raced horses at the $30,000 level, how about Silver Deputy?

He raced only twice, but he has improved mares over the years and his average runner makes 19 career starts.

In his case, I look at his sire racing 22 times, his dam racing 20 times, and his second dam racing over 56 times. He wasn't bred to be an unsound horse, even though he raced only twice.

[horsenuts]

Horsenuts...about lightly raced horses at the $30,000 level, how about Silver Deputy?

He raced only twice, but he has improved mares over the years and his average runner makes 19 career starts.

In his case, I look at his sire racing 22 times, his dam racing 20 times, and his second dam racing over 56 times. He wasn't bred to be an unsound horse, even though he raced only twice.

Once a horse has proven himself under those circumstances then I'd recommend them such as the case with SD. But SM is unproven at this time and I'd take a pass all things considered. If I want a Pulpit son I can breed to EoD for $5,000 and I believe he was the better all around racehorse to boot. He was also a highly thought of yearling bringing $2.3 million at Keeneland Sept. sale so he's a looker as well.

[sunday_silence]

Sunday Silence....Your Tent Or Mine just made a start after 18 months and Fusaichi Samurai keeps working seven furlongs until he disappears again. How can you say such a thing? Doesn't Drysdale get some credit for keeping older horses around in his barn? LOL!

Tee hee. Like I said, he has them around to admire, not actually run in races.

[Rokeby Forever]

Drysdale has always gotten more use out of his turf stock. But I've also seen a lot of Drysdale four year olds making their first career start on the grass.

[Rokeby Forever]

Horsenuts - personally, I agree with that point of view. And, all things being equal, when I see Sky Mesa standing for $30,000 and Cozzene standing for $35,000, it's a no brainer assuming both are compatible with my mare (also assuming I want to race the foal and not sell it).

I'm not defending Sky Mesa, his stud fee, or anything else. I'm simply saying that I wouldn't consider him a breakdown type because he comes from a reasonably sound female family...I think John Ward was responsible for his early departure from racing because of Ward's track record with every other talented young horse that's been carted out of that barn.

Let's just suppose: Bill Mott trained Sky Mesa. Would you have expected him to win the Hopeful, miss seven months, and then run only three more times before getting hurt again? Or, would you have expected him to be brought along at a slower rate and raced longer?

[sunday_silence]

I understand the temptation to malign the commercial market, because I do it myself. It's ridiculous that we have a situation where stallions like Gulch, Cozzene, Sky Classic, Dixieland Band and even Rahy can be had for considerably less than Forestry (the most overrated stallion standing), Elusive Quality (the second most overrated), the incredibly unsound Ghostzapper and other unprovens like Mineshaft, Empire Maker and Smarty Jones.

It's also ridiculous that people will pay more for yearlings by Sky Mesa, Vindication, etc. than ones by, say, Dynaformer. But, the market is just getting what it's asking for. As long as buyers are shelling out the big dough for babies by first-year (unsound) sires, breeders will use them.

Is there any real way to convince the commercial market that it's ruining the American TB and they should want sound, stamina-laden horses? Who else's fault is it besides the people buying and selling these fragile but speedy animals? And it's a vicious cycle, of course. The racing secretaries are just carding races for the horses they have available. I remember going to the track one day a couple of months ago and being shocked that 8 of 12 races on the card were run at 6F, and only 2 were over a mile.

I guess the increased importance of 2-year-old racing (thanks, Wayne) is also part of the problem. Are the tracks going to lower the purses on the big 2-year-old stakes? Make most of the big-money 2-year-old stakes in the mid-to-late fall? Card fewer MSW and MCL races for 2-year-olds? Not card any 2-year-old races before June or July? No way.

We can lament the the situation, but it would be more constructive to put heads together and figure out how to break the cycle (if that's even possible). Unless the bottom falls out of the auction market, I don't see it happening.

[henthorn]

Just like most things in history, pendulums swing back and forth, and history repeats itself. Stock markets have bull and bear cycles, and so will bloodstock prices. We can't expect a return to the past, but will see continuing changes, both good and bad.

Increasing stamina in the European-origin horses standing at stud in America will develop over time, as the Northern Dancer and Raise a Native blood speed influence dwindles. Excessive inbreeding will saturate their dominance, and other sire lines will rise to prominence.

Teddy was a huge influence in his day as a sire of sires, but where are his stallion descendants now? Nasrullah and his sons came to prominence, then ebbed.

My bet is that the international nature of racing and breeding will bring quiescent sire-power from one population to another, just as happened with Nearco and Sunday Silence when they were introduced into new mare populations. Or as this thread originally discussed the success of Bernstein in South America.

[Rokeby Forever]

Henthorn - dream on! In another 10 years, four furlong races will be the norm. We already breed a bunch that can't go any farther than that.

[horsenuts]

Just like most things in history, pendulums swing back and forth, and history repeats itself. Stock markets have bull and bear cycles, and so will bloodstock prices. We can't expect a return to the past, but will see continuing changes, both good and bad.

Increasing stamina in the European-origin horses standing at stud in America will develop over time, as the Northern Dancer and Raise a Native blood speed influence dwindles. Excessive inbreeding will saturate their dominance, and other sire lines will rise to prominence.

Teddy was a huge influence in his day as a sire of sires, but where are his stallion descendants now? Nasrullah and his sons came to prominence, then ebbed.

My bet is that the international nature of racing and breeding will bring quiescent sire-power from one population to another, just as happened with Nearco and Sunday Silence when they were introduced into new mare populations. Or as this thread originally discussed the success of Bernstein in South America.

I agree with your assessment. And I can tell you that trainers of today are both frustrated and disgutsed with working with these horses that fall apart like a cheap suit after a few races. And it's mostly a result of the commercial market and the influenece of speed and quarterhorse bodies on TB legs. As you say times change and I believe the emphasis being placed on breeding horses for 7 furlongs plus would benefit everyone in the industry for a multitiude of reasons. Take away those 21 and change first quarter miles and I think the break down rate would decline dramatically.


As for the commercial market.... I don't see the strength in it that it once had. I see a slow weakening and the recent sales are indicative of such. We all see these new studs with the high weanling / yearling and 2 year old sale prices.... but many of those are not legitimate. It is in the syndicates interest to have a few weaninlings / yearlings etc. sell for well into the six figures even the seven figures on occasion because they can continue to justify the $30,000-$50,000-$100,000 fees. But many, many of these sales are not legit and are simply bought by "frineds" of the syndicate... or they run them up on some unsuspecting "greater fool".

[bdw0617]

Just like most things in history, pendulums swing back and forth, and history repeats itself. Stock markets have bull and bear cycles, and so will bloodstock prices. We can't expect a return to the past, but will see continuing changes, both good and bad.

Increasing stamina in the European-origin horses standing at stud in America will develop over time, as the Northern Dancer and Raise a Native blood speed influence dwindles. Excessive inbreeding will saturate their dominance, and other sire lines will rise to prominence.

Teddy was a huge influence in his day as a sire of sires, but where are his stallion descendants now? Nasrullah and his sons came to prominence, then ebbed.

My bet is that the international nature of racing and breeding will bring quiescent sire-power from one population to another, just as happened with Nearco and Sunday Silence when they were introduced into new mare populations. Or as this thread originally discussed the success of Bernstein in South America.

I agree with your assessment. And I can tell you that trainers of today are both frustrated and disgutsed with working with these horses that fall apart like a cheap suit after a few races. And it's mostly a result of the commercial market and the influenece of speed and quarterhorse bodies on TB legs. As you say times change and I believe the emphasis being placed on breeding horses for 7 furlongs plus would benefit everyone in the industry for a multitiude of reasons. Take away those 21 and change first quarter miles and I think the break down rate would decline dramatically.


As for the commercial market.... I don't see the strength in it that it once had. I see a slow weakening and the recent sales are indicative of such. We all see these new studs with the high weanling / yearling and 2 year old sale prices.... but many of those are not legitimate. It is in the syndicates interest to have a few weaninlings / yearlings etc. sell for well into the six figures even the seven figures on occasion because they can continue to justify the $30,000-$50,000-$100,000 fees. But many, many of these sales are not legit and are simply bought by "frineds" of the syndicate... or they run them up on some unsuspecting "greater fool".

they do that?

[madelyn]

They sure do.

It's like hooking a "live one".. they see if there is live money, not just croney bids. Then, if there is, they may run it up till the live money quits. If you have been to the auctions, you may have seen this. They bid past, then when the next raise doesn't happen, they backpedal fuiously to get the "last" live money bid. They might even bring the horse back into the ring a hip or two later on.

[horsenuts]

They sure do.

It's like hooking a "live one".. they see if there is live money, not just croney bids. Then, if there is, they may run it up till the live money quits. If you have been to the auctions, you may have seen this. They bid past, then when the next raise doesn't happen, they backpedal fuiously to get the "last" live money bid. They might even bring the horse back into the ring a hip or two later on.

Thanks for an excellent explanation, Madelyn. With the advent of the internet much of the corruptness of horse sales is being forced out of the shadows. The recent revelations of bloodstock agents and trainers etc. hit with lawsuits and legal charges brought by Jess Jackson / Mattress Mac and Satash Sanan etc. has been going on for decades and decades. No surprise to people working in the industry.

[sunday_silence]

Just one recent notable example was the Mineshaft filly from Saratoga Select last year. She was the first Mineshaft yearling to sell and Lane's End made sure to make a big deal about her. They needed her to sell big and generate buzz for the Mineshafts to sell at Keeneland. Who paid $1.45 mil for her? Farish buddy Don Courtlandt Farm Adam. Friends helping out friends. Farish himself jacked up the price on the Mineshaft/Dear Birdie colt at Keeneland. He was probably the best bred Mineshaft yearling in the sale, along with the Better Than Honour colt (although no one knew then what Rags would do this year) but was nothing special to look at. They could pass it off as a rare opportunity to get an offspring of that mare, but nobody else would've paid $1.3 mil for that particular specimen.

[Maven]

And if any of you think The Green Monkey sold for 16mil, think again. He was *bought* for less than half of that.

The auctions are a big game of chess. If you're bringing serious money to the auction and consignors/owners know that, do yourself a favor and have someone not associated with you publicly do the bidding for you at a different part of the venue.

Trust me, you can save a ton of money.

[sunday_silence]

And if any of you think The Green Monkey sold for 16mil, think again. He was *bought* for less than half of that.

That rumor has been going around since the sale and seems to be pretty much accepted as fact. No cronyism there, just a simple attempt on oneupsmanship that failed, eh?