Three Chimneys' states that Exchange Rate's fee will be a minnimum of 20 - 25K next season (your words)...
Actually not my words.....they were Anne Peters' words.
Exchange Rate to Three Chimneys
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Rokeby Forever
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Hi Fos,
I wonder if these factors might/might not be considered:
1) Exchange Rate's 2007 sales averages. The offerings will still be Florida breds, which might hold the average down - and might keep the 2008 fee down. If his offspring average increases to, say $40,000 this year, how could a $30,000 fee be justified?
2) Exchange Rate, to this point, is a "filly" sire - he hasn't yet sired a colt of prominence (as has a sire like Littleexpectations). Might that also be a factor in determining his fee, should an Exchange Rate colt not reach Grade II or Grade I status this year?
Best Regards.
I wonder if these factors might/might not be considered:
1) Exchange Rate's 2007 sales averages. The offerings will still be Florida breds, which might hold the average down - and might keep the 2008 fee down. If his offspring average increases to, say $40,000 this year, how could a $30,000 fee be justified?
2) Exchange Rate, to this point, is a "filly" sire - he hasn't yet sired a colt of prominence (as has a sire like Littleexpectations). Might that also be a factor in determining his fee, should an Exchange Rate colt not reach Grade II or Grade I status this year?
Best Regards.
What synthetics are to California racing:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gb0mxcpPOU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gb0mxcpPOU
hi Rok
I'm confident that EVERY factor will be considered. Regardless...who's to say that logic (as you or I might see it) will prevail
...after all, isn't this in the hands of Three Chimneys and Padua 
That said...I don't expect that ExRate's 2007 sales averages will create a sticking point/obstacle when setting his 2008 stud fee...unless the numbers are absolutely horrible/embarrasing.
As for ExRate not having a star colt yet...I expect that it's just a matter of time.
With that in mind...let's not forget that Exchange Rate's first two Florida crops (foals of '03 and '04) numbered (per the '07 TBTimes Stallion Directory) 44, then 35 named foals. Those relatively small crops were arguably NOT the result of his lack of appeal (in general)...but were arguably the result of ExRate's stud fees being considered (by many) as out-of-line (aka too high) early-on...starting initially at $12,500 (for '01).
For what it's worth...it seemed that many breeders stayed clear of using Exchange Rate (despite liking him) until his stud fee dropped, significantly. Even then, many who might have used him from the outset, had his stud fee been more reasonable...didn't. Some did though, especially when he dropped to $7,500, (in '04 if I recall correctly) staying at that level thru '05.
When ExRate's first crop (2-yos of 2005) and second crop showed some run (including a couple of G1 caliber runners), breeders (as might be expected) expanded their support despite his stud fee being bumped to $10k in '06...and remaining there for '07.
I get a sense that ExRate will be well-received in Ky for 2008. Why not? He's a young, well-bred, handsome horse...that was not only a Belmont Park G2 winner (on the dirt)...but also has experienced some real success as a young sire...despite relatively small early crops. The fact that he's already sired legit G1 caliber horses (Swap Fliperoo-Test G1 winner, and Ermine KyOaks-G1 2nd) among his better runners (despite his first two small crops totaling a mere 79 named foals) is nothing to sneeze at...and is certainly one of the reasons (if not reason-1) for his move from Fla to Ky.
All things considered...not the least of which is where he's going (Three Chimneys) for 2008, "I'd be amazed (as I mentioned earlier) if they stood him for $20k..." and "...not be surprised if they're actually thinking more like $30k (for 2008)...and hoping they might be able to rationalize (if not justify) $35-$40k..."
It might come down to a simple case of Three Chimneys & Padua deciding what they believe Exchange Rate offers (and/or where he fits in, if you will) as compared to other Kentucky-based stallions/sires...based on their advertised stud fees?
Now consider this, Rok...another former Padua stallion, Yes It's True, already stands at Three Chimneys, and his advertised stud fee for 2007 was $35,000. Hmmm.
If Yes It's True was your one and only comparable...what stud fee would YOU tag onto Exchange Rate?
Best.
Respectfully
Rokeby Forever wrote:Hi Fos,
I wonder if these factors might/might not be considered:
1) Exchange Rate's 2007 sales averages. The offerings will still be Florida breds, which might hold the average down - and might keep the 2008 fee down. If his offspring average increases to, say $40,000 this year, how could a $30,000 fee be justified?
2) Exchange Rate, to this point, is a "filly" sire - he hasn't yet sired a colt of prominence (as has a sire like Littleexpectations). Might that also be a factor in determining his fee, should an Exchange Rate colt not reach Grade II or Grade I status this year?
Best Regards.
I'm confident that EVERY factor will be considered. Regardless...who's to say that logic (as you or I might see it) will prevail
...after all, isn't this in the hands of Three Chimneys and Padua
That said...I don't expect that ExRate's 2007 sales averages will create a sticking point/obstacle when setting his 2008 stud fee...unless the numbers are absolutely horrible/embarrasing.
As for ExRate not having a star colt yet...I expect that it's just a matter of time.
With that in mind...let's not forget that Exchange Rate's first two Florida crops (foals of '03 and '04) numbered (per the '07 TBTimes Stallion Directory) 44, then 35 named foals. Those relatively small crops were arguably NOT the result of his lack of appeal (in general)...but were arguably the result of ExRate's stud fees being considered (by many) as out-of-line (aka too high) early-on...starting initially at $12,500 (for '01).
For what it's worth...it seemed that many breeders stayed clear of using Exchange Rate (despite liking him) until his stud fee dropped, significantly. Even then, many who might have used him from the outset, had his stud fee been more reasonable...didn't. Some did though, especially when he dropped to $7,500, (in '04 if I recall correctly) staying at that level thru '05.
When ExRate's first crop (2-yos of 2005) and second crop showed some run (including a couple of G1 caliber runners), breeders (as might be expected) expanded their support despite his stud fee being bumped to $10k in '06...and remaining there for '07.
I get a sense that ExRate will be well-received in Ky for 2008. Why not? He's a young, well-bred, handsome horse...that was not only a Belmont Park G2 winner (on the dirt)...but also has experienced some real success as a young sire...despite relatively small early crops. The fact that he's already sired legit G1 caliber horses (Swap Fliperoo-Test G1 winner, and Ermine KyOaks-G1 2nd) among his better runners (despite his first two small crops totaling a mere 79 named foals) is nothing to sneeze at...and is certainly one of the reasons (if not reason-1) for his move from Fla to Ky.
All things considered...not the least of which is where he's going (Three Chimneys) for 2008, "I'd be amazed (as I mentioned earlier) if they stood him for $20k..." and "...not be surprised if they're actually thinking more like $30k (for 2008)...and hoping they might be able to rationalize (if not justify) $35-$40k..."
It might come down to a simple case of Three Chimneys & Padua deciding what they believe Exchange Rate offers (and/or where he fits in, if you will) as compared to other Kentucky-based stallions/sires...based on their advertised stud fees?
Now consider this, Rok...another former Padua stallion, Yes It's True, already stands at Three Chimneys, and his advertised stud fee for 2007 was $35,000. Hmmm.
If Yes It's True was your one and only comparable...what stud fee would YOU tag onto Exchange Rate?
Best.
Respectfully
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Rokeby Forever
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Hi FOS,
Your opinion to the following is anticipated and is, as always, welcomed:
Yes It's True's fee (IMO) is solely based on his ability to sire early winners. Might that be the selling point with $40,000 for Officer, as well? I'm not sure whether or not Exchange Rate will become known as an "early sire," but I'm assuming that a large amount of his future success will be dependent upon it.
I think that War Front, at $12,500, offers competition for Exchange Rate. He's also Grade II (multiple Grade I placed, though), but was a better racehorse than was Exchange Rate. I'm sure Claiborne will do its best to get him off to a good start.
And as an upcoming Danzig stallion, I like Defer. He's Grade III to this point, but he comes from a strong Phipps family, a family much stronger than Exchange Rate's. It'll be interesting to see where he stands in 2008.
And with Hard Spun (yet another Danzig) right around the corner, maybe...just maybe...the timing isn't right for Exchange Rate's move to KY?
Suddenly, Danzig has emerged as a "sire of sires" in Kentucky - it took only 20 years! Exchange Rate was the big fish in lesser pedigreed pond in Ocala - KY is a different ballgame.
Your opinion to the following is anticipated and is, as always, welcomed:
Yes It's True's fee (IMO) is solely based on his ability to sire early winners. Might that be the selling point with $40,000 for Officer, as well? I'm not sure whether or not Exchange Rate will become known as an "early sire," but I'm assuming that a large amount of his future success will be dependent upon it.
I think that War Front, at $12,500, offers competition for Exchange Rate. He's also Grade II (multiple Grade I placed, though), but was a better racehorse than was Exchange Rate. I'm sure Claiborne will do its best to get him off to a good start.
And as an upcoming Danzig stallion, I like Defer. He's Grade III to this point, but he comes from a strong Phipps family, a family much stronger than Exchange Rate's. It'll be interesting to see where he stands in 2008.
And with Hard Spun (yet another Danzig) right around the corner, maybe...just maybe...the timing isn't right for Exchange Rate's move to KY?
Suddenly, Danzig has emerged as a "sire of sires" in Kentucky - it took only 20 years! Exchange Rate was the big fish in lesser pedigreed pond in Ocala - KY is a different ballgame.
hi Rok...
All good points you make...and questions you raise. Let's touch on a couple, even if it's just slightly.
I could not (right now) recommend either Yes It's True ($35k) or Officer ($40k) at those stud fees.
Too many weaknesses/chinks in their armor. All things considered, is Yes It's True (by Is It True and out of a Clever Trick daughter)...really worth $35k, based on what he's done thus far (as a sire). Not for me.
I ask...what would a son of Officer (Bertrando) or Yes It's True (Is It True) have to accomplish at the racetrack to attract attention as a stallion? Consider this...Proud Accolade won a G1 yet stands for only $5k...hmmm. I might add...if you've seen him, it wouldn't surprise me if you'd turn and walk away. For starters...his back is as flat & straight as a 2 x 4. OUCH.
Regardless...if Officer and/or Yes It's True (or any sire for that matter) regularly got/gets TOP class runners, I'd be willing to revisit and reevaluate.
Others might see them differently, but I cannot justify Yes It's True ($35k) and Officer's ($40k) stud fees (based on what they've done thus far as racehorse sires), nor am I enamored by the thought of either as a potential sires-of-sires (at least not yet).
War Front might be just fine...but I don't view him as much (if any) competition (at this time) for ExRate. Yes they're both by Danzig, but ExRate is already a racehorse sire...and War Front is not. Simple as that.
Furthermore...the fact that War Front is out of a Rubiano daughter does not exactly send me.
Yes and he's out of a Mr Prospector daughter...now that's appealing. But I never got a sense that Dinny or Shug was impressed by the colt.
Think about it...didn't it seem like Dinny/Shug wanted to get a stakes win under the colt's belt...and sent him to Laurel, for fear he couldn't win something important where there might have been more luster (such as in New York)?
Hard Spun's a nice horse, but his dam's by Turkoman...which is not exactly manna (as far as I'm concerned). I wish his connections all the best...but, he's another one that has a long way to go before he even covers his first mare...much less gets his first runner.
Again, ExRate is a racehorse sire already, who has arguably had good success from limited opportunity. Who knows what Defer, or War Front or Hard Spun will be?
When Exchange Rate is bred to the quality and quantity of mares that he'll likely be offered in Ky, I sense his future will be VERY bright. Why not? He's already gotten some very good runners (including a couple of G1 caliber fillies) from his first two crops...which were arguably quite small by today's standards.
Forget the big-fish in the little pond theory (in the case of ExRate)...he's a good young sire...is well-bred...is good-looking...was a G2 winner in New York...and has accomplished the kind of things that breeders and stallion 'gurus' pay attention to.
No secrets...that's the way it is.
When a thoroughbred stallion makes good, anywhere...Kentucky, Florida, Maryland...wherever...it will not go unnoticed.
Example: Maryland. That little pond didn't seem to hurt Northern Dancer, and I would argue that a move to Kentucky would not have mattered one iota.
I would say the same about Mr Prospector, had he stayed in Florida. I am convinced that he would have been a super-super-super-star sire no matter where he stood. And what about What A Pleasure? He NEVER left Florida...yet he was North America's Leading Sire.
This is a VERY competitive game...and when a sire (particularly a young one) is (or appears to be) good/special...there is likely to be an attempt to pluck him and move him...even if it's just from one side of town to the other; as was the case with Unbridled...who was plucked from Gainesway and moved to Claiborne.
Best to you Rok.
Respectfully
All good points you make...and questions you raise. Let's touch on a couple, even if it's just slightly.
Rokeby Forever wrote:Yes It's True's fee (IMO) is solely based on his ability to sire early winners. Might that be the selling point with $40,000 for Officer, as well? I'm not sure whether or not Exchange Rate will become known as an "early sire," but I'm assuming that a large amount of his future success will be dependent upon it.
I could not (right now) recommend either Yes It's True ($35k) or Officer ($40k) at those stud fees.
Too many weaknesses/chinks in their armor. All things considered, is Yes It's True (by Is It True and out of a Clever Trick daughter)...really worth $35k, based on what he's done thus far (as a sire). Not for me.
I ask...what would a son of Officer (Bertrando) or Yes It's True (Is It True) have to accomplish at the racetrack to attract attention as a stallion? Consider this...Proud Accolade won a G1 yet stands for only $5k...hmmm. I might add...if you've seen him, it wouldn't surprise me if you'd turn and walk away. For starters...his back is as flat & straight as a 2 x 4. OUCH.
Regardless...if Officer and/or Yes It's True (or any sire for that matter) regularly got/gets TOP class runners, I'd be willing to revisit and reevaluate.
Others might see them differently, but I cannot justify Yes It's True ($35k) and Officer's ($40k) stud fees (based on what they've done thus far as racehorse sires), nor am I enamored by the thought of either as a potential sires-of-sires (at least not yet).
Rokeby Forever wrote:I think that War Front, at $12,500, offers competition for Exchange Rate. He's also Grade II (multiple Grade I placed, though), but was a better racehorse than was Exchange Rate. I'm sure Claiborne will do its best to get him off to a good start.
War Front might be just fine...but I don't view him as much (if any) competition (at this time) for ExRate. Yes they're both by Danzig, but ExRate is already a racehorse sire...and War Front is not. Simple as that.
Furthermore...the fact that War Front is out of a Rubiano daughter does not exactly send me.
Rokeby Forever wrote:And as an upcoming Danzig stallion, I like Defer. He's Grade III to this point, but he comes from a strong Phipps family, a family much stronger than Exchange Rate's. It'll be interesting to see where he stands in 2008.
Yes and he's out of a Mr Prospector daughter...now that's appealing. But I never got a sense that Dinny or Shug was impressed by the colt.
Think about it...didn't it seem like Dinny/Shug wanted to get a stakes win under the colt's belt...and sent him to Laurel, for fear he couldn't win something important where there might have been more luster (such as in New York)?
Rokeby Forever wrote:And with Hard Spun (yet another Danzig) right around the corner, maybe...just maybe...the timing isn't right for Exchange Rate's move to KY?
Hard Spun's a nice horse, but his dam's by Turkoman...which is not exactly manna (as far as I'm concerned). I wish his connections all the best...but, he's another one that has a long way to go before he even covers his first mare...much less gets his first runner.
Again, ExRate is a racehorse sire already, who has arguably had good success from limited opportunity. Who knows what Defer, or War Front or Hard Spun will be?
When Exchange Rate is bred to the quality and quantity of mares that he'll likely be offered in Ky, I sense his future will be VERY bright. Why not? He's already gotten some very good runners (including a couple of G1 caliber fillies) from his first two crops...which were arguably quite small by today's standards.
Rokeby Forever wrote:Exchange Rate was the big fish in lesser pedigreed pond in Ocala - KY is a different ballgame.
Forget the big-fish in the little pond theory (in the case of ExRate)...he's a good young sire...is well-bred...is good-looking...was a G2 winner in New York...and has accomplished the kind of things that breeders and stallion 'gurus' pay attention to.
No secrets...that's the way it is.
When a thoroughbred stallion makes good, anywhere...Kentucky, Florida, Maryland...wherever...it will not go unnoticed.
Example: Maryland. That little pond didn't seem to hurt Northern Dancer, and I would argue that a move to Kentucky would not have mattered one iota.
I would say the same about Mr Prospector, had he stayed in Florida. I am convinced that he would have been a super-super-super-star sire no matter where he stood. And what about What A Pleasure? He NEVER left Florida...yet he was North America's Leading Sire.
This is a VERY competitive game...and when a sire (particularly a young one) is (or appears to be) good/special...there is likely to be an attempt to pluck him and move him...even if it's just from one side of town to the other; as was the case with Unbridled...who was plucked from Gainesway and moved to Claiborne.
Best to you Rok.
Respectfully
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Rokeby Forever
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Hiya FOS,
Not much that I can disagree with.
What didn't Mr P have going for him? He was a fast-as-a-bullet racehorse by Raise A Native. And, with early successes like It's In The Air, his Ocala days figured to be numbered.
What might be your opinion of this, just to continue the very enjoyable chit-chat?
When a sire like Exchange Rate has a limited crop number and his offspring perform better than expected, I tend to think that a lot of mare selection goes into making that sire a success. That's not to say that Padua had particular genius, but other breeders like Jack Dreyfuss (Hobeau Farm) that sent mares to him did.
When a sire (nowadays) moves to Kentucky and suddenly gets a book of 100+ mares, everything that went into making a regional sire successful goes out the window - cashing a stud fee check and promoting the few successes out of large crops takes over. Back when Mr P moved to KY, he had a book of what...40 mares? Nicking patterns and mare conformation might have meant something at that time - but had he stood today with books of 150 mares, would his "super-super-super" sire status have been equalled?
That's where I see a downfall with Exchange Rate. On the flip side, that's where I see a strength with Defer. He's not the racehorse the the Phipps had hoped, but I think that if he's bred to the right mares, he's got a pedigree that is just too strong not to be successful (ala Sovereign Dancer, another Phipps disappointment).
As for War Front, his dam carries that "super-super-super sire" blood of Mr. P (Northern Dancer over Mr P, it's been known to be successful), and while Rubiano may not get your blood racing, Burning Roma might prove to be a very nice regional sire for the Rosbecks.
Hard Spun? While Alysheba may be (and probably is) a drawback, that family is Darby Dan...and mixing Danzig blood with Darby Dan can produce a pretty good sire - just ask Danehill. The Larry Jones Amateur Hour has been a major setback to Hard Spun, but it might actually be a blessing in disguise - Hard Spun's initial fee might be pretty reasonable vs in the Stratosphere had he been trained by trainer and not by a singing cowboy.
Best.
Not much that I can disagree with.
What didn't Mr P have going for him? He was a fast-as-a-bullet racehorse by Raise A Native. And, with early successes like It's In The Air, his Ocala days figured to be numbered.
What might be your opinion of this, just to continue the very enjoyable chit-chat?
When a sire like Exchange Rate has a limited crop number and his offspring perform better than expected, I tend to think that a lot of mare selection goes into making that sire a success. That's not to say that Padua had particular genius, but other breeders like Jack Dreyfuss (Hobeau Farm) that sent mares to him did.
When a sire (nowadays) moves to Kentucky and suddenly gets a book of 100+ mares, everything that went into making a regional sire successful goes out the window - cashing a stud fee check and promoting the few successes out of large crops takes over. Back when Mr P moved to KY, he had a book of what...40 mares? Nicking patterns and mare conformation might have meant something at that time - but had he stood today with books of 150 mares, would his "super-super-super" sire status have been equalled?
That's where I see a downfall with Exchange Rate. On the flip side, that's where I see a strength with Defer. He's not the racehorse the the Phipps had hoped, but I think that if he's bred to the right mares, he's got a pedigree that is just too strong not to be successful (ala Sovereign Dancer, another Phipps disappointment).
As for War Front, his dam carries that "super-super-super sire" blood of Mr. P (Northern Dancer over Mr P, it's been known to be successful), and while Rubiano may not get your blood racing, Burning Roma might prove to be a very nice regional sire for the Rosbecks.
Hard Spun? While Alysheba may be (and probably is) a drawback, that family is Darby Dan...and mixing Danzig blood with Darby Dan can produce a pretty good sire - just ask Danehill. The Larry Jones Amateur Hour has been a major setback to Hard Spun, but it might actually be a blessing in disguise - Hard Spun's initial fee might be pretty reasonable vs in the Stratosphere had he been trained by trainer and not by a singing cowboy.
Best.
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kimberley mine
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Madelyn, it wouldn't be the first time a "hot-name" (and you may interpret that however you want) son stood for more than dear old dad. Officer ($15,000) versus Bertrando ($12,500) and Ghostzapper ($200k) versus Awesome Again ($125k) immediately come to mind.
Rokeby, with Hard Spun you have the wrong Alydar son...his broodmare sire is Turkoman, not Alysheba. That said, despite her daddy being the much-maligned Turkoman, Hard Spun's dam has been a very nice producer...5 winners of 5 foals to race, including 2 SW and 1 SP.
Rokeby, with Hard Spun you have the wrong Alydar son...his broodmare sire is Turkoman, not Alysheba. That said, despite her daddy being the much-maligned Turkoman, Hard Spun's dam has been a very nice producer...5 winners of 5 foals to race, including 2 SW and 1 SP.
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Rokeby Forever
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Morningside
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hi Rok...hi guys
Let's give it a go.
Yes he was freaky-fast. He was also a quite powerful, well-made, handsome & masculine individual that exuded self-confidence...a caveat, his forelegs were set quite close and he did toe out.
His stud fee (at the outset) was $7,500, and Butch Savin asked $75,000 per share. Not only did most balk at the share price, but many also balked at his stud fee. Furthermore...many looking for near-perfect front-ends (on their stallion/s of choice), took a pass on Mr Prospector. Regardless...he was not discounted.
To give you some of the flavor...Savin had spent plenty of money being involved with various stallions in Kentucky...and was nothing short of p*ss*d when few (if any) of the farms etc that he spent so much money at (in Kentucky) would reciprocate and support his young stallion.
Bottom line...Savin bred some very nice mares of his own to Mr Prospector, hoping to give the horse a chance, but (for the most part) outsiders weren't quite as generous in their selections. As a result, Mr Prospector was bred to all different types...including the good, the bad and the ugly.
I'm a believer in giving credit where due...but, I don't know that genius (your word) is the word I'd use here. I'd say (in Dreyfuss and his manager Wheeler's case) breeding to ExRate was a matter of recognizing a nice young horse when they saw one...and breeding a mare or two (to him) that they thought might work; same as they've done (with other stallions) for years and years. Sometimes the decision/selection bears fruit, sometimes it doesn't. In this case it did.
Moving on...I ask, is it fair to say that Florida (and arguably other locales which might be referred to as regional markets) can rarely depend on much more than the same-old same-old broodmare pool of mares that seemingly make the local rounds year-in and year-out.
That's not to say that there aren't some very nice mares in Florida (and in other states/locales)...but I sense that those nice Florida mares (and obviously the definition of nice mares is open for discussion) are a minority in a relatively small pool...certainly when compared to the HUGE pool (of mares) that's in Kentucky...whether year-round or seasonally.
That said...Exchange Rate probably got some nice mares his way...but I'd guess that (for the most part) much of his book was comprised of the same-old same-old that make their trips around-town...year-in and year-out.
Consider this also...prior to ExRate standing at stud, Sanan daughter Nadia began her management position (a learn-the-ropes scenario if you will) with the helpful (if not watchful) assistance of knowledgeable & experienced Padua Manager Bruce Hill. During the learn-the-ropes period, Nadia apparently tagged a $12,500 stud fee on ExRate, despite Manager Bruce Hill's strong recommendation that the initial stud fee (on ExRate) be set MUCH lower. Hill's recommendation was nixed (apparently Nadia had the authority). The result? Both Hill and Nadia (and Team Padua) looked-on as breeder-after-breeder passed on using the horse (arguably as a result of what many apparently considered to be an out-of-line [too high] stud fee).
It took a couple of years before Hill's initial recommendation (that a much-lower stud fee be tagged on ExRate) was implemented. Who knows, maybe Dad [Satish] said enough already and/or Nadia finally realized that if Padua wanted to attract more outside support for ExRate, that a significant reduction in his stud fee was necessary. Hey...better late than never.
Don't think for a minute that there aren't some young Florida stallions getting books in excess (some well in excess) of 100. Regardless the numbers...some of those will NOT have much success...others will.
With that in mind...is it unreasonable to suggest that if a stallion covers a book of what might be described as average+- mares, and those average+- mares produce a good number of quality runners (maybe including a couple of G1 caliber horses)...that arguably one might feel more confident that the success (in that case) is more likely to the credit of the stallion than the mares?
On the flip side...if/when a stallion is bred to exceptional+- mares (ala Giant's Causeway)...is it unreasonable to suggest that it might be more difficult for one to feel confident that (in such a case) success is related to the stallion moreso than the wonderful mares he covered?
That said, when I consider the limited quantity and mostly average+- quality of the mares that Mr Prospector started with (at the outset of his career), and his exceptional results (as a racehorse-sire) right from the gitgo...it was abundantly clear (to me anyway) then, as it is now...that he was something special. To my way of thinking, he proved himself to be the rarest of the rare...WOW !!!
Mr Prospector was UNBELIEVABLE. Whatever he was bred to...he got TOP Class runners. Fillies, colts...dirt, turf...short, long.
I get a sense that ExRate's move to Kentucky will be to his benefit. I'm not expecting (nor even suggesting) that he'll go down as one of the all time greats...Uh Uh. But he is a very nice horse...is very easy on the eyes...is well-bred (and I like the fact that he's out of a Seeking the Gold daughter, and his 2nd dam is by the Bid)...was a genuine New York G2 winner (on the dirt)...and has already sired a couple of G1 caliber horses (from his first two crops, which total a mere 79 named foals). What's not to like?
Of course there's lots of time between now and when ExRate's stud fee will likely be set (for 2008). That said...if it were October/November 2007 right now, and a stud fee had to be set now...I'd likely describe $20k (for ExRate) as a bargain...and $25k as very good value. As for $30k, I might take a deep breath, but could understand the thinking. If Clay and Sanan make the final call (which I expect they will)...who knows what they'll do.
Maybe.
If Defer had won a stake in New York or SoCal or Gulfstream Park (for starters) rather than Laurel...he'd appeal to me a whole lot more than he does right now. Of course he'd have to stand up to physical scrutiny too. That said...if I saw him (in the flesh) and he was a jaw dropper...and I studied his race record closer and got to know more about the colt, and I learned/saw things that might convince me that he's more horse than I perceive him to be right now...I'd likely rethink him. Hard to ignore a stakes-winning Danzig put of a Mr Prospector...from a Phipps family.
Burning Roma was a very nice racehorse. That said...a Rubiano out of an Overskate doesn't really appeal to me as a sire prospect. Respectfully...I'd rather wait and see, and possibly pay a bonus (to get to a horse like him) if/when he ignites the racing world...than breed to a horse like him now.
If he was, say...an AP Indy out of a Deputy Minister (for example), now that might be a different story .
Hard Spun will have to accomplish a whole lot more than he has...before being comparable to Danehill. Danehill's all but royalty isn't he...WOW.
As for Alysheba, he's a Very good broodmare sire (from my perspective)...as for his son Turkoman, he's difficult for me to digest as the dam's sire of a prospective racehorse-sire. He's not exactly a horse that generates confidence (in me anyway) that he'll be the broodmare sire of an important sire.
Turkoman, the broodmare sire of a fantastic racehorse? Yes...ala Point Given.
Turkoman, the dam's sire of an important racehorse-sire? I'll have to see it before I'll believe it.
Happy trails to you.
Phew...long post...are you still awake?
Best Rok.
Respectfully
Rokeby Forever wrote:What might be your opinion of this, just to continue the very enjoyable chit-chat?
Let's give it a go.
Rokeby Forever wrote:What didn't Mr P have going for him? He was a fast-as-a-bullet racehorse by Raise A Native. And, with early successes like It's In The Air, his Ocala days figured to be numbered.[
Yes he was freaky-fast. He was also a quite powerful, well-made, handsome & masculine individual that exuded self-confidence...a caveat, his forelegs were set quite close and he did toe out.
His stud fee (at the outset) was $7,500, and Butch Savin asked $75,000 per share. Not only did most balk at the share price, but many also balked at his stud fee. Furthermore...many looking for near-perfect front-ends (on their stallion/s of choice), took a pass on Mr Prospector. Regardless...he was not discounted.
To give you some of the flavor...Savin had spent plenty of money being involved with various stallions in Kentucky...and was nothing short of p*ss*d when few (if any) of the farms etc that he spent so much money at (in Kentucky) would reciprocate and support his young stallion.
Bottom line...Savin bred some very nice mares of his own to Mr Prospector, hoping to give the horse a chance, but (for the most part) outsiders weren't quite as generous in their selections. As a result, Mr Prospector was bred to all different types...including the good, the bad and the ugly.
Rokeby Forever wrote:When a sire like Exchange Rate has a limited crop number and his offspring perform better than expected, I tend to think that a lot of mare selection goes into making that sire a success. That's not to say that Padua had particular genius, but other breeders like Jack Dreyfuss (Hobeau Farm) that sent mares to him did.
I'm a believer in giving credit where due...but, I don't know that genius (your word) is the word I'd use here. I'd say (in Dreyfuss and his manager Wheeler's case) breeding to ExRate was a matter of recognizing a nice young horse when they saw one...and breeding a mare or two (to him) that they thought might work; same as they've done (with other stallions) for years and years. Sometimes the decision/selection bears fruit, sometimes it doesn't. In this case it did.
Moving on...I ask, is it fair to say that Florida (and arguably other locales which might be referred to as regional markets) can rarely depend on much more than the same-old same-old broodmare pool of mares that seemingly make the local rounds year-in and year-out.
That's not to say that there aren't some very nice mares in Florida (and in other states/locales)...but I sense that those nice Florida mares (and obviously the definition of nice mares is open for discussion) are a minority in a relatively small pool...certainly when compared to the HUGE pool (of mares) that's in Kentucky...whether year-round or seasonally.
That said...Exchange Rate probably got some nice mares his way...but I'd guess that (for the most part) much of his book was comprised of the same-old same-old that make their trips around-town...year-in and year-out.
Consider this also...prior to ExRate standing at stud, Sanan daughter Nadia began her management position (a learn-the-ropes scenario if you will) with the helpful (if not watchful) assistance of knowledgeable & experienced Padua Manager Bruce Hill. During the learn-the-ropes period, Nadia apparently tagged a $12,500 stud fee on ExRate, despite Manager Bruce Hill's strong recommendation that the initial stud fee (on ExRate) be set MUCH lower. Hill's recommendation was nixed (apparently Nadia had the authority). The result? Both Hill and Nadia (and Team Padua) looked-on as breeder-after-breeder passed on using the horse (arguably as a result of what many apparently considered to be an out-of-line [too high] stud fee).
It took a couple of years before Hill's initial recommendation (that a much-lower stud fee be tagged on ExRate) was implemented. Who knows, maybe Dad [Satish] said enough already and/or Nadia finally realized that if Padua wanted to attract more outside support for ExRate, that a significant reduction in his stud fee was necessary. Hey...better late than never.
Rokeby Forever wrote:When a sire (nowadays) moves to Kentucky and suddenly gets a book of 100+ mares, everything that went into making a regional sire successful goes out the window - cashing a stud fee check and promoting the few successes out of large crops takes over.
Don't think for a minute that there aren't some young Florida stallions getting books in excess (some well in excess) of 100. Regardless the numbers...some of those will NOT have much success...others will.
With that in mind...is it unreasonable to suggest that if a stallion covers a book of what might be described as average+- mares, and those average+- mares produce a good number of quality runners (maybe including a couple of G1 caliber horses)...that arguably one might feel more confident that the success (in that case) is more likely to the credit of the stallion than the mares?
On the flip side...if/when a stallion is bred to exceptional+- mares (ala Giant's Causeway)...is it unreasonable to suggest that it might be more difficult for one to feel confident that (in such a case) success is related to the stallion moreso than the wonderful mares he covered?
That said, when I consider the limited quantity and mostly average+- quality of the mares that Mr Prospector started with (at the outset of his career), and his exceptional results (as a racehorse-sire) right from the gitgo...it was abundantly clear (to me anyway) then, as it is now...that he was something special. To my way of thinking, he proved himself to be the rarest of the rare...WOW !!!
Rokeby Forever wrote:Back when Mr P moved to KY, he had a book of what...40 mares? Nicking patterns and mare conformation might have meant something at that time - but had he stood today with books of 150 mares, would his "super-super-super" sire status have been equalled?
Mr Prospector was UNBELIEVABLE. Whatever he was bred to...he got TOP Class runners. Fillies, colts...dirt, turf...short, long.
Rokeby Forever wrote:That's where I see a downfall with Exchange Rate.
I get a sense that ExRate's move to Kentucky will be to his benefit. I'm not expecting (nor even suggesting) that he'll go down as one of the all time greats...Uh Uh. But he is a very nice horse...is very easy on the eyes...is well-bred (and I like the fact that he's out of a Seeking the Gold daughter, and his 2nd dam is by the Bid)...was a genuine New York G2 winner (on the dirt)...and has already sired a couple of G1 caliber horses (from his first two crops, which total a mere 79 named foals). What's not to like?
Of course there's lots of time between now and when ExRate's stud fee will likely be set (for 2008). That said...if it were October/November 2007 right now, and a stud fee had to be set now...I'd likely describe $20k (for ExRate) as a bargain...and $25k as very good value. As for $30k, I might take a deep breath, but could understand the thinking. If Clay and Sanan make the final call (which I expect they will)...who knows what they'll do.
Rokeby Forever wrote:On the flip side, that's where I see a strength with Defer. He's not the racehorse the the Phipps had hoped, but I think that if he's bred to the right mares, he's got a pedigree that is just too strong not to be successful (ala Sovereign Dancer, another Phipps disappointment).
Maybe.
If Defer had won a stake in New York or SoCal or Gulfstream Park (for starters) rather than Laurel...he'd appeal to me a whole lot more than he does right now. Of course he'd have to stand up to physical scrutiny too. That said...if I saw him (in the flesh) and he was a jaw dropper...and I studied his race record closer and got to know more about the colt, and I learned/saw things that might convince me that he's more horse than I perceive him to be right now...I'd likely rethink him. Hard to ignore a stakes-winning Danzig put of a Mr Prospector...from a Phipps family.
Rokeby Forever wrote:As for War Front, his dam carries that "super-super-super sire" blood of Mr. P (Northern Dancer over Mr P, it's been known to be successful), and while Rubiano may not get your blood racing, Burning Roma might prove to be a very nice regional sire for the Rosbecks.
Burning Roma was a very nice racehorse. That said...a Rubiano out of an Overskate doesn't really appeal to me as a sire prospect. Respectfully...I'd rather wait and see, and possibly pay a bonus (to get to a horse like him) if/when he ignites the racing world...than breed to a horse like him now.
If he was, say...an AP Indy out of a Deputy Minister (for example), now that might be a different story
.Rokeby Forever wrote:Hard Spun? While Alysheba may be (and probably is) a drawback, that family is Darby Dan...and mixing Danzig blood with Darby Dan can produce a pretty good sire - just ask Danehill.
Hard Spun will have to accomplish a whole lot more than he has...before being comparable to Danehill. Danehill's all but royalty isn't he...WOW.
As for Alysheba, he's a Very good broodmare sire (from my perspective)...as for his son Turkoman, he's difficult for me to digest as the dam's sire of a prospective racehorse-sire. He's not exactly a horse that generates confidence (in me anyway) that he'll be the broodmare sire of an important sire.
Turkoman, the broodmare sire of a fantastic racehorse? Yes...ala Point Given.
Turkoman, the dam's sire of an important racehorse-sire? I'll have to see it before I'll believe it.
Rokeby Forever wrote:The Larry Jones Amateur Hour has been a major setback to Hard Spun, but it might actually be a blessing in disguise - Hard Spun's initial fee might be pretty reasonable vs in the Stratosphere had he been trained by trainer and not by a singing cowboy.
Happy trails to you.
Phew...long post...are you still awake?
Best Rok.
Respectfully
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Rokeby Forever
- Darley line
- Posts: 6684
- Joined: Thu Dec 21, 2006 4:52 pm
- Location: Reno, NV
My good friend, FOS - we meet again!
To borrow a phrase from the rappers, "Let's break this down" (LOL!) Some thoughts:
1. Hobeau Farm has had too much success over the years by breeding to new, unproven stallions for any success to be considered a fluke. I don't think Mr Dreyfuss ever imagined breeding a Kelly Kip from a "bum" like Kipper Kelly, but as you write, "credit where credit is due." Certainly, Mr Dreyfuss has a way of making chicken salad from chicken feathers. I also reckon that having a trainer that can wave a magic wand never hurt.
2. Consider your assessment of Mr P's physical to what's around today. Back in the day, there were skeptics. Today - he's be picture perfect! Those Storm Cat knees certainly don't detract anyone.
3. Setting Exchange Rate's initial stud fee: Would it have made sense for Nadia "Comaneci" Sanan to set it for less than what she pays for a Louis Vuitton handbag?
4. Certainly, there are "lesser" bred mares in Florida than in Kentucky (as a whole), but Ocala Stud has a remarkable record with breeding those "same old same old" mares to their stallions and coming up with stakes winners year after year. I would argue that in the case of Exchange Rate, standing for $10,000 in Ocala got him a much better quality mare than the average $20,000 stallion will get in Kentucky. At the $10,000 level, Exchange Rate was among the "elite" in the state (Montbrook rules the roost at $20,000). The average $20,000 stallion in Kentucky may/may not get bred to "better" bred mares, but of what quality?
5. Back to Mr P: Yes, Mr P was the rare sire and he didn't need to ride on a mare's coattails. I can't think of any way, shape, or form to begin to compare Exchange Rate to him.
When I wrote about stallions getting 100+ mares, my thinking was that just by sheer numbers, something from a large crop has to be able to run. In the case of Johannesburg, he did sire Scat Daddy and Teuflesburg from his first crop, but his median runner sure isn't something to write home about. Back to success from smaller crops, I tend to think there's more "selection" by the mare owner choosing a stallion. I'm trying to make a point somehow, FOS...I hope you can figure out what it is. LOL!
6. Re Defer: The amazing thing about Northern Dancer, unlike any other sire, is that he was able to sire such powerhouses that weren't all that much on the racetrack. I can't tell you (offhand) how many unheralded Danzigs have stood stud and/or the success any of them have had, but Defer just might offer a chance at history repeating itself. As you write, "maybe." Would the world prefer to see Defer retire as Grade II or even Grade I? Sure...but Polish Navy and Danzig Connection were Grade I. Alas. LOL!
7. Rubiano: Boy, FOS...did he ever bite you on the backside? LOL!
8. Re Hard Spun: With the natural speed he possesses, I tend to think that Danzig is more of an influence on him than is Turkoman, or anything from his damside. That, I think, can make him a successful sire. I was going to mention Point Given/Turkoman, but you beat me to it. Phooey!
Happy trails? How about....I'm back in the saddle again!
Many thanks for you insights, FOS...they do provoke thought.
Best,
Rok
To borrow a phrase from the rappers, "Let's break this down" (LOL!) Some thoughts:
1. Hobeau Farm has had too much success over the years by breeding to new, unproven stallions for any success to be considered a fluke. I don't think Mr Dreyfuss ever imagined breeding a Kelly Kip from a "bum" like Kipper Kelly, but as you write, "credit where credit is due." Certainly, Mr Dreyfuss has a way of making chicken salad from chicken feathers. I also reckon that having a trainer that can wave a magic wand never hurt.
2. Consider your assessment of Mr P's physical to what's around today. Back in the day, there were skeptics. Today - he's be picture perfect! Those Storm Cat knees certainly don't detract anyone.
3. Setting Exchange Rate's initial stud fee: Would it have made sense for Nadia "Comaneci" Sanan to set it for less than what she pays for a Louis Vuitton handbag?
4. Certainly, there are "lesser" bred mares in Florida than in Kentucky (as a whole), but Ocala Stud has a remarkable record with breeding those "same old same old" mares to their stallions and coming up with stakes winners year after year. I would argue that in the case of Exchange Rate, standing for $10,000 in Ocala got him a much better quality mare than the average $20,000 stallion will get in Kentucky. At the $10,000 level, Exchange Rate was among the "elite" in the state (Montbrook rules the roost at $20,000). The average $20,000 stallion in Kentucky may/may not get bred to "better" bred mares, but of what quality?
5. Back to Mr P: Yes, Mr P was the rare sire and he didn't need to ride on a mare's coattails. I can't think of any way, shape, or form to begin to compare Exchange Rate to him.
When I wrote about stallions getting 100+ mares, my thinking was that just by sheer numbers, something from a large crop has to be able to run. In the case of Johannesburg, he did sire Scat Daddy and Teuflesburg from his first crop, but his median runner sure isn't something to write home about. Back to success from smaller crops, I tend to think there's more "selection" by the mare owner choosing a stallion. I'm trying to make a point somehow, FOS...I hope you can figure out what it is. LOL!
6. Re Defer: The amazing thing about Northern Dancer, unlike any other sire, is that he was able to sire such powerhouses that weren't all that much on the racetrack. I can't tell you (offhand) how many unheralded Danzigs have stood stud and/or the success any of them have had, but Defer just might offer a chance at history repeating itself. As you write, "maybe." Would the world prefer to see Defer retire as Grade II or even Grade I? Sure...but Polish Navy and Danzig Connection were Grade I. Alas. LOL!
7. Rubiano: Boy, FOS...did he ever bite you on the backside? LOL!
8. Re Hard Spun: With the natural speed he possesses, I tend to think that Danzig is more of an influence on him than is Turkoman, or anything from his damside. That, I think, can make him a successful sire. I was going to mention Point Given/Turkoman, but you beat me to it. Phooey!
Happy trails? How about....I'm back in the saddle again!
Many thanks for you insights, FOS...they do provoke thought.
Best,
Rok
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sunday_silence
- Allowance Winner
- Posts: 411
- Joined: Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:59 pm
Overbrook keeps pressing on with their extremely well-bred Danzig horse, Shark, now 5. They've moved all their other well-bred but underperforming colts along, including all of Shark's grandma Flanders' sons (Flanders Fields being sold to South American interests just recently). Yet, they've hung onto Shark, who undoubtedly has stud value somewhere. He was stakes placed just this year.
Anybody think they are trying to get a stakes win or two with him and that they're wanting to stand him at the farm? He does best in turf sprints. Not a lot of little listed/overnight stakes come up on the turf at 5-6F, but there are enough that they can probably a few for him this summer and fall if they want to ship around a bit. They should send him down to Calder for the Bob Umphrey, but they didn't nominate. If he retired to stud today, he'd have more to recommend him than Pioneering did upon his retirement. And Pioneering has done well for himself.
Anybody think they are trying to get a stakes win or two with him and that they're wanting to stand him at the farm? He does best in turf sprints. Not a lot of little listed/overnight stakes come up on the turf at 5-6F, but there are enough that they can probably a few for him this summer and fall if they want to ship around a bit. They should send him down to Calder for the Bob Umphrey, but they didn't nominate. If he retired to stud today, he'd have more to recommend him than Pioneering did upon his retirement. And Pioneering has done well for himself.