Royal Academy...Weird????

[pokeyman]

I was looking at the stallion Royal Academy. He has 142 stakes winners of which 81 are graded..including 4 Champions.

However, his median earnings per start is $12,156. Is that a misprint???? How can that be?

[kimberley mine]

This horse has shuttled all over the place. When you look at his stats, you are looking at the aggregate and not just his statistics from North America. So that $12,156 median earnings includes purses of Brazilian Gr-1 and allowance races and Australian handicaps as well as US racing. Brazilian and Argentine races have a substantially lower purse when converted to dollars (even the wealthiest races in the country). Depending on racing class and the exchange rate, his Aussie earnings will also be lower.

Royal Academy is a good horse and a good value, even if his numbers look off.

All of the shuttle stallions will have some kind of data skewing like this. Giant's Causeway is a good example. He has had some decent success on turf in the NH but his results down under have been dreadful (to say the least). It would be really nice to see statistics for just his North American-sired crops (I am including the year he stood in Ireland).

[pokeyman]

I don't know. I'm skeptical. Are you saying that other shuttle stallions have similar numbers?

It does kind of explain his $15,000 stud fee. Shouldn't a stallion with those numbers be way more expensive? Why is he so cheap?

[Maven]

Nothing to be skeptical about, Kimberley is absolutely correct. And his fee is a reflection of his age, being tagged a "turf" stallion, and not having a sire son in the states of note.

He's an exceptional bargain. I highly recommend anyone looking for a proven stallion to look at him. Furthermore, he's turning into an exceptional broodmare sire. A good daughter of his would be a great addition to any broodmare band.

[JCBloodstock]

And you can't fault the female family for consistency with sires.Storm Cat,Pioneering,Wheaton,Desert Warrior,Pancho Villa and Royal Academy

[kimberley mine]

I don't know. I'm skeptical. Are you saying that other shuttle stallions have similar numbers?

Not similar numbers per se, but their earnings will be skewed downward by the lower purses in South America, Europe, Australia, and New Zealand. Dubai, Japan and Hong Kong have the highest purses in the world, followed by the US, and it's a long slide down to everybody else.

As an example, here is fellow shuttle stallion Mutakddim. Mutakddim has an average earnings of $44,000 and median of $16,846, but 8% SW and 14% SH. If you look at the earnings of his Gr-1 winning Argentine colt Mooner, you'll notice that his combined earnings converted into US dollars is $128,030. His multiple Gr-1 winning Argentine filly Artemisa's earnings converted to US dollars is $56,943. In the US, those earnings would be typical for an average allowance horse and decent mid-level claimer, respectively. They're DEFINITELY skewing Mutakddim's average and median earnings down.

You will see this downward drag in More Than Ready and Roar as well.

With respect to Giant's Causeway, Fusaichi Pegasus, Woodman, etc who shuttled to Australia and failed miserably as stallions, their statistics will be skewed heavily downward in spite of good (or at least decent) performance in the Northern Hemisphere. I strongly suspect that Giant's Causeway's mediocre (for a $250,000 stallion) 4% stakes winners and 9% stakes horses would shift up significantly were his southern hemisphere stats separated from his northern hemisphere stats.

Back to Royal Academy, his champions are Oscar Schindler (Ireland, $792,041), Ali Royal (England, $328,409), Avorado (Ireland, $284,765), Tiger Royal (Ireland, $221,965), El Maimoun (Ger, $186,872), and Bullish Luck (Hong Kong, about $8,000,000 and counting). Only one of those horses would have earnings high enough to compare with most champions/horses of the year in the US, and that would be Bullish Luck.

[Sheikh]

Val Royal is doing the business.

[pokeyman]

Ah..Ok, thanks! That makes more sense.....

I am considering him for next year for my Trempolino mare that is currently being covered by Cozzene.

I wonder how Royal Academy's kids are doing on the new synthetic surfaces? I think that is going to be an integral part of my future stallion picks.

Thanks again!

[pembroke]

Sheikh.....speaking of Val Royal....I have a 3/4 sister to Cockney Rebel!!! Talk about rooting for a horse to win!!! Do you know any good agents I could list her with???

[pokeyman]

Nobody knows how his kids are doing on synthetic surfaces!!!

Come on....I know you guys have the stat somewhere!!!

[Worksoplad]

Royal Academy's synthetic record is 9.6%.

[pokeyman]

Royal Academy's synthetic record is 9.6%.

Yeah, I found that when another forum member recommended I check equieline. Yikes!!!!!!

[kimberley mine]

Pokeyman, do you have an APR?

Before looking at that 9.6% poly winners and getting freaked out, I'd want to know a whole lot more.

1. Poly is still fairly new, and in 2 of the 4 largest racing communities (FL and NY) you are unlikely to find lots of poly runners. Ditto in Europe (some all-weather, but all-weather runners in Europe tend to be cheap) and Australia and Brazil. Thus knowing a hard number of his poly starters versus his grass starters versus his dirt starters to total starters is critical. If he has 1000 foals race in 2006, and 10 started on poly, and 1 was a winner on poly, that's way too small a sample to be statistically meaningful. If he has 1000 foals to race in 2006 and 328 start on poly and 26 win on poly, that's a sample size you can use. (If you go back a few months I had an interesting discussing with Rokeby about Successful Appeal, Appealing Zophie, and the perils of small sample size error. If you so choose, you might look it up as it's directly applicable here too.)

2. Royal Academy is, as Maven stated, labeled as a grass stallion, and so only very rarely (if ever) will you find a breeder who wants a dirt horse sending a mare to Royal Academy. It is a reasonable assumption that horses who are specifically bred for grass tend to be run on the grass by their trainers/owners. This suggests to me that the trainer/owner of a horse trying the poly is either testing the waters, or the horse has failed on the lawn and trainer/owner is looking for other options.

3. Know the racing class of his poly runners. Does he have 10% poly winners in cheap claimers at Turfway in the winter, or does he have good Keeneland/Woodbine/Hollywood allowance winners and stakes winners? If only his cheapest offspring are running on poly, it stands to reason that he has a low success rate on poly. Cheap horses don't win against better horses. If his really good horses are running on poly and winning at a 10% clip, well, that's not so good.

Now combine the three...if you find that he has very few runners trying synthetic tracks AND that those runners tend to be of low racing class, I wouldn't read too much into that 9.6%. If on the other hand he has comparatively many runners on poly, and they are comparatively nice on grass or dirt but failing on poly, then I'd be concerned.

For the record, I don't have access to those stats, but it's something to ponder for any stallion. And I don't know exactly how Royal Academy (or any other horse) shakes out. If you are serious about using poly statistics in your mating choices, it behooves you to dig a little beyond the raw numbers in order to make the best educated guess you can.

[pokeyman]

Kimberley,

Good points.

I am breeding turf horses so any that can do well on the polytrack are preferred!

My Trempolino mare is covered by Cozzene as he sires both.....

I will try to dig up more information.

[Maven]

How many covers did it take for your mare to get infoal to Cozzene? I was hearing he was having some fertility issues. I hope not. I planned on breeding to him next year.