will The Green Monkey win first time out...assuming he races

[FOS]

hi guys

News is ...The Green Monkey worked a half in 48.92 (today, 7/1/2007)...co-19th fastest work of 47 that worked that distance today over the Belmont dirt main-track. Interestingly, the other runner that had the co-19th fastest work was Rags To Riches...which leads me to believe (after all Pletcher trains both RTR and TGM) that (more likely than not) the two worked together.

That said, and all things considered...

1/...do you expect that The Green Monkey will make his career racing debut at Saratoga (2007 that is )?

and,

2/ If TGM actually starts (whenever/wherever)...do you expect he'll win first time out?

Respectfully

[Rokeby Forever]

A new condition at Saratoga...the Optional Maiden Claimer?

[ageecee]

Answer to question: probably Not

[Tairaterces]

I would guess not too . . . . . . . . .

BUT once the gate opens . . . . you just don't know . . . . . . . he's been fighting NOT to be a race horse. If that lightbulb goes off in his head and he applies that fighting spirit to the task at hand . . . . he might surprise us all . . . . . . .

We shall see . . . . . . . .

Tairaterces

[bdw0617]

people are funny


first of all.. the question has NEVER EVER been was the green monkey talented. you don't pay 16 mil and breeze the way he did and be a 10k claimer, although that was the running joke.

the question, the REAL question was could he stay healthy enough to substain training.

If he can.... watch out. he will be a decent older horse. I don't know how good, but he won't be a claimer or anything.

[Rokeby Forever]

The White Elephant....I mean The Green Monkey...had enough talent early in his career to run 1/8th in :9 4/5....which has since been done by several horses at two year old sales (:10 flat or :9 4/5).

In retrospect, the :9 4/5 work didn't warrant his purchase price - and add to that the fact that his sire is a bomb (not in a good way). Coolmore got stuck. Period. Dot. End.

[bdw0617]

oh make no mistake.. not even close to warranting the price.

but people are looking at the workouts as the "grand scale" of if the horse can run or not... if we are doing that, look at his workout at the sale... that' shwat I am saying.


we won't know anything until he hits the track.

[FOS]

hi Rok

...his [The Green Monkey's] sire [Forestry] is a bomb (not in a good way).

Bomb might be an overstatement...but certainly he is by NO stretch of the imagination (at least mine) worthy a $125,000 stud fee. If he stood for $50k (maybe even a bit more) he might deflect much of the harsh criticism he's attracted...arguably rightfully so.

To highlight the matter...yesterday's 7th race at Belmont Park included the prohibitive favorite 3-yo filly Forest Jazzy (by Forestry). According to the TVG commentators, Forest Jazzy broke her maiden in her most recent start on May 15th (at River Downs no less), where she reportedly won off by a HUGE margin...many many many lengths.

Apparently she won so impressively that day that she was shipped to trainer Bill Mott and was sent off the prohibitive favorite in yesterdays 7th race at Belmont...a 6 furlong allowance race (on the dirt) for 3-yo and up F and M (NW 1 X).

Even the race commentators seemed amazed that a filly that most recently broke her maiden at River Downs was sent off the prohibitive favorite ($1.45) by the New York fans.

As you might have guessed already...Forest Jazzy (by Forestry) finished dead-last in the field of 11 runners. She carried (as did two others in the race) 116 pounds (to the winner's 123 and 2nd place finisher's 121), was beaten by more than 10 lengths and even finished 1 1/4 lengths behind the next to last-place finisher (who by the way carried 121).

Respectfully

[bdw0617]

The only two real runners this thing has produced was Forest Danger and discreet Cat. I'll give credit where credit is due on Discreet Cat.. that's a World Class horse.. (when he's right).. but one horse doesn't justify a 125k fee.

[louis finochio]

If TGM runs against top class maidens, we can judge his class level; if he is able to be competive against them. Time will tell if he's a runner.

[Rokeby Forever]

Hi FOS,

You're absolutely correct that Forestry's fee opens him to wide criticism (not to mention that his average runner makes only nine career starts and we know they're NOT being rushed off to stud), but I'd like to pick that wonderful mind of yours' for a reply to this thought:

I'd like to argue that there is NO way that Forestry can be considered a $50,000 stallion - more like a $25,000 stallion, or less. Why?

Forestry's lifetime AEI is 1.96, which isn't all that terrible. However, with a lifetime CI book average of 3.13, representing one of the strongest book averages around, I'd argue that his 1.96 AEI is coming on a lot of coattails. With books that strong, his AEI is what it is...what would it possibly be with a book that a $50,000 sire gets? Maybe half of that?

Let's consider a sire like More Than Ready. He's right around the same age as Forestry and has maybe one crop less to race than does Forestry. At the $40,000 level, More Than Ready has a 1.98 AEI (almost identical to Forestry's 1.96) , but the lifetime CI average of his books is only 2.06 - MUCH weaker than the mares that Forestry has been spending Saturday night with.

Now, had Forestry be given books of mares equal to More Than Ready at the $40,000 level, would he still have a 1.96 AEI? Is it fair to argue that the chances would be "no?" (or...no way in Hell, more likely?).

If you argue that Forestry would not have the foal production matching More Than Ready, he's not a $40,000 stallion.

Let's now look at the $25,000 level where we find Arch. Arch is also right around the same age and has maybe a crop to race more than does Forestry, but let's consider that Arch's lifetime AEI is 2.07 (a l'il better than Forestry's) but the lifetime CI average of the books of mares he's had is only 1.78. If Forestry can't achieve more than 1.96 AEI with mares 3+ on the CI scale, how would he be expected to match Arch's 2.07 AEI with mares averaging a meager 1.78 CI?

And down and down we go.....

Too bad Runaway Groom was pensioned and died only a short time ago. I'd love to add him to this argument when he had only 5 or 6 crops to race.

So, excluding sales averages, what's a fair stud fee to assign Forestry in "breed to race" land? He's got a Millionaire offspring in Discreet Cat, thanks to Dubai purses, but his next best earner is Smokey Glacken, a nice Grade 2 sprinting mare type, that never approached $1 Million in earnings.

As always...best to you and I sincerely look forward to your thoughts.

[Maven]

Before you're so quick to throw stallions to the wolves, remember that Arch was considered a failure until two years ago by MANY people INCLUDING Clairborne. Bernie Sams was offering seasons to him for $2500 (or possibly $1500) at one point (I believe the listed fee was 5k).

Is Forestry over-priced? Yes. But I also think 75% of stallions in Kentucky are over-priced.

[bdw0617]

there's overpriced... but then there is I divide your fee to a quarter and I would still have reservations overpriced

[Maven]

In this market, a 50k fee would be appropriate. They sell very well and he gets enough stakes winners to keep people buying. Again, over-priced, but 50k is more appropriate.

[Rokeby Forever]

Forstry's worth $50,000 when More Than Ready is at $40,000? Are you nuts????

Forget Arch - Dynaformer was free at one point and didn't go beyond $5,000 until his fifth year at stud. Cher used to sing, "If I could turn back time..."

I'm now Hail To Reason's self appointed PR Manager.