Sam
Why did you list Prospect Bay as a "worse stallion"?
According to the staticts compiled by Bloodstock Research Information Services which were puplished in the March 2007 edition of Mid Atlantic Thoroughbred, page 220, he has 75.1% winners from lifetime starters.
I've seen a ton of KY stallions standing at much higher fees with less than 60% winners from starters.
griff
I have a question? Who is the WORST Stallion you know?
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brogers
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Rokeby Forever wrote:One thing I keep in mind about Saint Ballado's early stallions is that they weren't out of the strongest of female families. He definitely sired some runners, but as far as them passing on that talent, it's a stretch to suggest that a horse like Captain Bodgit is likely to become successful because he comes from a family of successful stallions/broodmares.
Sort of like Kris S.????
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Rokeby Forever
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brogers wrote:Sort of like Kris S.????
Ahhh, Roberto....God's gift to the breeding world. It's still hard to believe that Dynaformer was free to approved mares for his first three or four seasons.
As for Captain Bodgit, I don't see anything in Answering Echo's family to suggest that he'll EVER be a successful stallion. Will he be another Kris S? As a Hail To Reason fan, I'd sure like to see it - but I wouldn't count on his damside helping him any.
What synthetics are to California racing:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gb0mxcpPOU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gb0mxcpPOU
griff wrote:Sam
Why did you list Prospect Bay as a "worse stallion"?
According to the staticts compiled by Bloodstock Research Information Services which were puplished in the March 2007 edition of Mid Atlantic Thoroughbred, page 220, he has 75.1% winners from lifetime starters.
Working off old data (Dec07)... my initial reaction was that he sires garbage collectors. The handful of good horses were making his really bad horses look better. Seemed like he was doing a real number on his mares (1.01 AEI vs 1.70 CI??) and the median earnings per starter were low. Now I'm trying to find that data since looking at the new numbers don't jive with what I remember.
eta
They are still crappy, just not as crappy as I initially remembered. He does a big number on his mares (the 1.01 vs 1.70 is correct), but his average earnings are good for a regional sire and he does get them to start/win. With the book he saw, they should be getting more than $2k a start, though. He's driving a stake through his mares.
griff wrote:Give me a couple of example of Prospect Bay's mares that have produced better with other stallions. I looked at his get and all Ipulled up were the best their dams had produced.
I'm not looking at individuals, I'm looking at his numbers as a whole and as a whole, a stallion who sees a book of 1.70 and only gets 1.01 production out of them is bad. They start and they win, but when they are averaging $2k a start and the fact that there is such a big gap between his AEI (1.01) and his CI (1.70) -- that's garbage collecting. That says he has a handful of good horses making up for his really bad ones. They're barely doing enough to earn their keep.
If you think he's a good stallion and would breed to him, griff, fine. I wouldn't bother to try to talk you out of it. I'd give a little on what I like to see (75% starters, 55% winners, 5% stakes winners and a stallion who improves his mares) IF the average earnings per start and the median earnings are higher... but I'm not willing to give that big a gap in AEI/CI when he's only getting $2k a start.
San
page 220 pf the March 2006 Mid Atlantic Throughbred lists stallions standing in WV and his $2,504 average per start and $41,870 average per starter looks to be above average for WV stallions. It's certainly not on par with Black Tie Affair's $4,039 per start and $83,955 per starter but then Black Tie Affair only has 62.1% winners compared to Prospect Bay's 75.1% winners.. Maybe if we deleted the lowest 9% of Prospect Bay's winners he'd be more competive with BTA in that areana.
By the way, which Mid Atlantic stallions do you like?/
griff
page 220 pf the March 2006 Mid Atlantic Throughbred lists stallions standing in WV and his $2,504 average per start and $41,870 average per starter looks to be above average for WV stallions. It's certainly not on par with Black Tie Affair's $4,039 per start and $83,955 per starter but then Black Tie Affair only has 62.1% winners compared to Prospect Bay's 75.1% winners.. Maybe if we deleted the lowest 9% of Prospect Bay's winners he'd be more competive with BTA in that areana.
By the way, which Mid Atlantic stallions do you like?/
griff
"We has met the enemy and he is us" [Pogo]
griff wrote:page 220 pf the March 2006 Mid Atlantic Throughbred lists stallions standing in WV and his $2,504 average per start and $41,870 average per starter looks to be above average for WV stallions.
Yeah, those are the same numbers (more or less) that I'm showing.
I. Don't. Care. He has a 1.01 vs 1.70 production. He's siring garbage collectors. His average per start/starters are not high enough to overcome the hatchet job he's doing to his mares. If you like him, fine, I'm not trying to change your mind. You asked my opinion, I gave it. I have only a small list of guidelines I judge stallions by and he falls short of most of them.
griff wrote:By the way, which Mid Atlantic stallions do you like?
humph.... gotta think about that.
Last edited by Sam on Tue Aug 21, 2007 3:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
Sam wrote:griff wrote:By the way, which Mid Atlantic stallions do you like?
humph.... gotta think about that.
feh... not much, but then most stallions don't appeal to me.
Stallions I would consider. This does not mean I *like* them, just that I would consider them... what I want and what I will accept are two different things. What sucks is that most of the ones I liked are dead.
Hansel:
Starters 79%
Winners (/Foals) 47%
Ave Earnings/Starter $71,471
Ave Earnings/Start $4,974
Median Earnings $21,651
Blacktype Wnrs(/Foals) 6%
1.64 AEI vs 1.76 CI (more or less)
Prized:
Starters (/Foals) 77%
Winners (/Foals) 58%
Ave Earnings/Starter $58,777
Ave Earnings/Start $3,024
Median Earnings $23,952
Blacktype Wnrs(/Foals) 7%
1.43 vs 1.52
Not For Love:
Starters (/Foals) 74%
Winners (/Foals) 56%
Ave Earnings/Starter $80,329
Ave Earnings/Start $4,257
Median Earnings $45,091
Blacktype Wnrs(/Foals) 6%
1.82 vs 1.51
Go For Gin:
Starters (/Foals) 79%
Winners (/Foals) 53%
Ave Earnings/Starter $62,565
Ave Earnings/Start $3,673
Median Earnings $20,440
Blacktype Wnrs(/Foals) 3%
1.57 vs 1.63
Lite The Fuse:
Starters (/Foals) 74%
Winners (/Foals) 58%
Ave Earnings/Starter $55,984
Ave Earnings/Start $3,323
Median Earnings $27,890
Blacktype Wnrs(/Foals) 6%
1.38 vs 1.26
Will's Way:
Starters (/Foals) 77%
Winners (/Foals) 56%
Ave Earnings/Starter $43,685
Ave Earnings/Start $2,546
Median Earnings $20,329
Blacktype Wnrs(/Foals) 3%
1.18 vs 1.16
I'm not Sam and I wont answer for her, but for me, when the earning averages confirm most of the wins are cheap, bottom level claimers, that does nothing for me.
Stats can be skewed to fit into any light, its the complete picture you have to look at to determine what the stallion is really about.
It's like the AEI/CI argument... I dont automatically take a horse off my short list if he isnt surpassing his CI. There's a lot that can be deceiving.
Take a personal favorite of mine-- Mizzen Mast.
His AEI/CI is 1.06/1.60 Which appears to be extremely bad, but when you take into account his oldest are 3, and that they should only get better going longer and probably on the turf, you have to remove some of the importance of that.
Many of his other percentages look bad, but if you deduce that they should be later developers, it lightens the load. He also has a average earnings/start just under 5k. Which tells me they're being competitive at top tracks.
Stats can be skewed to fit into any light, its the complete picture you have to look at to determine what the stallion is really about.
It's like the AEI/CI argument... I dont automatically take a horse off my short list if he isnt surpassing his CI. There's a lot that can be deceiving.
Take a personal favorite of mine-- Mizzen Mast.
His AEI/CI is 1.06/1.60 Which appears to be extremely bad, but when you take into account his oldest are 3, and that they should only get better going longer and probably on the turf, you have to remove some of the importance of that.
Many of his other percentages look bad, but if you deduce that they should be later developers, it lightens the load. He also has a average earnings/start just under 5k. Which tells me they're being competitive at top tracks.
Don't be so humble - you are not that great.