Stud fees
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Byron - I'm curious how many of the 800 stallion no longer servicing mares were based in Kentucky. Is this more a case of regional markets downsizing their stallion operations and breeding more mares (in the regional markets) to thier more successful stallions? I'd also be interested to know the breakdown of price ranges. My gut tells me that many, many of these stallions were standing for less than $5,000.
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kimberley mine
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Stallion Numbers
It is difficult for me to really tell anything from the rough numbers of mares and stallions. 58 thousand mares and 3,500 hundred stallions means on average there is 1 stallion per 16.5 mares. If you take the first 100 stallions however, they covered over 13,300 mares or about 23% of all the mares. If you take the next 100 stallions they covered about 9,200 mares or about 16% of all mares. The top 200 stallions covered almost 40% of all mares covered. The next 100 covered 6,500 mares or 11% of all mares covered. 300 stallions covered half of all mares bred.
The remaining 3,200 stallions covered 29,000 mares or on average about 9 mares per stallions. My point is, after the top 300 commercial stallions there is a tremendous over supply of stallions. What farm or stud owner can operate on average with 10 mares covered per year? How can you advertise and pay upkeep on a stallion with 10 mares at $2,000.00 per mare? What will and must happen is the bottom tier of stallions will continue to leave. With those stallions are some of the more unique bloodlines left in the breed.
I have no answers, just observations. The supply and demand is perhaps valid on the top 300 stallions, other than them no one is too busy.
The remaining 3,200 stallions covered 29,000 mares or on average about 9 mares per stallions. My point is, after the top 300 commercial stallions there is a tremendous over supply of stallions. What farm or stud owner can operate on average with 10 mares covered per year? How can you advertise and pay upkeep on a stallion with 10 mares at $2,000.00 per mare? What will and must happen is the bottom tier of stallions will continue to leave. With those stallions are some of the more unique bloodlines left in the breed.
I have no answers, just observations. The supply and demand is perhaps valid on the top 300 stallions, other than them no one is too busy.
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brogers
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CS wrote:Byron - I'm curious how many of the 800 stallion no longer servicing mares were based in Kentucky. Is this more a case of regional markets downsizing their stallion operations and breeding more mares (in the regional markets) to thier more successful stallions? I'd also be interested to know the breakdown of price ranges. My gut tells me that many, many of these stallions were standing for less than $5,000.
CS,
In 2001 there was 20280 mares bred in Kentucky...in 2006 there was 21,104...so there are more mares being bred in KY...Unfortunately in 2001 there was 449 stallions serving in KY and in 2006 there was 365.
As I said...increasing demand is way outstripping supply and with so much demand in the marketplace stallion managers, especially those in KY, are in a position where they are slowing this demand is by raising service fees.
You might be right with he stallions that are less than $5,000 dropping out of the market but this just means that the mares have to be bred somewhere and they usually jump up to be bred to stallions at a higher fee that htey might not warrant.
It then becomes a self fulfilling prophecy as these mares are overbred for their pedigree and the resultant foals get to a sales ring where they are meeting an increasingly discerning marketplace and before you know it you get people on an internet forum bitching about how overpriced stallions are...
Kimberley Mine wrote:Well hello Byron! I was wondering when you (as an interested party, not to mention a knowledgable one) were going to chime in. Welcome back, as it's been a while.
Keeneland September ate me up for breakfast !
[quote="brogers"]In 2001 there was 20280 mares bred in Kentucky...in 2006 there was 21,104...so there are more mares being bred in KY...Unfortunately in 2001 there was 449 stallions serving in KY and in 2006 there was 365. [quote]
With these number - by straight averages - stallion books have increased from 45 mares/stallion to 58 mares/stallion in Kentucky. That goes to show you that there are quite a few stallions that breed only a few mares even in KY!
Does anyone have numbers on the average (actually median would be most telling) KY stud fee in 2001 vs 2006?
With these number - by straight averages - stallion books have increased from 45 mares/stallion to 58 mares/stallion in Kentucky. That goes to show you that there are quite a few stallions that breed only a few mares even in KY!
Does anyone have numbers on the average (actually median would be most telling) KY stud fee in 2001 vs 2006?
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Rokeby Forever
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This is a great thread! And welcome back, good Mr Brogers!
Just wondering - there are many, many of the roughly 3,500 stallions that have 50% of their foals go unraced. Of that amount of unraced foals, a good percentage will become broodmares. So, as the stallion number decreases, it seems to me that the demand for them increases proportionately with a ready addition every year of new broodmares to the already available pool of broodmares. The increase in some stud fees doesn't seem to curb any demand - there are stallions out there that are never off their hind legs!
Maybe - just maybe - so many of these mares shouldn't be bred? And if there were a control in place as to the numbers of mares that could be bred in a given year, might that be one solution toward the overdemand vs supply problem? I never see that realistically happening, but what if it did? Then, perhaps, fees would be justified in several cases because the number of broodmares being bred is limited.
Just wondering - there are many, many of the roughly 3,500 stallions that have 50% of their foals go unraced. Of that amount of unraced foals, a good percentage will become broodmares. So, as the stallion number decreases, it seems to me that the demand for them increases proportionately with a ready addition every year of new broodmares to the already available pool of broodmares. The increase in some stud fees doesn't seem to curb any demand - there are stallions out there that are never off their hind legs!
Maybe - just maybe - so many of these mares shouldn't be bred? And if there were a control in place as to the numbers of mares that could be bred in a given year, might that be one solution toward the overdemand vs supply problem? I never see that realistically happening, but what if it did? Then, perhaps, fees would be justified in several cases because the number of broodmares being bred is limited.
What synthetics are to California racing:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gb0mxcpPOU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gb0mxcpPOU
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summerhorse
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brogers
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Rokeby Forever wrote:This is a great thread! And welcome back, good Mr Brogers!
Just wondering - there are many, many of the roughly 3,500 stallions that have 50% of their foals go unraced. Of that amount of unraced foals, a good percentage will become broodmares. So, as the stallion number decreases, it seems to me that the demand for them increases proportionately with a ready addition every year of new broodmares to the already available pool of broodmares. The increase in some stud fees doesn't seem to curb any demand - there are stallions out there that are never off their hind legs!
Maybe - just maybe - so many of these mares shouldn't be bred? And if there were a control in place as to the numbers of mares that could be bred in a given year, might that be one solution toward the overdemand vs supply problem? I never see that realistically happening, but what if it did? Then, perhaps, fees would be justified in several cases because the number of broodmares being bred is limited.
Roke,
The free market in the thoroughbred game is an interesting thing and while it can occasionally get it wrong, it is usually quite rational and naturally excludes and natually culls horses whose chance of producing a superior runner is small.
A few years ago (actually it might be a decade or so ago....we are getting old) the JRA in Japan did as you suggested. They paid breeders in Japan to NOT BREED a mare that they felt had little to no chance of producing a superior runner and gave them an incentive to buy a new mare. I forget how they determined what mares were selected not to be bred but I think it, along with importing superior stallions, put them on the right track.
The problem I see is that you need constant number of horses to supply the racing that we offer here in America. Racing class is like a pyramid and you need a base of mediocre to average horses to support the best horses at the top. We stop breeding the number of horses that we do and racetracks start having short(er) fields that they already have, bettors will not want to bet and the racetracks will close. After a while we will be reducing until we have nothing!
hi brogers
Thanks for sharing your thoughts, insights and numbers/stats.
I still find it difficult to imagine that there might be an overabundance (much less an abundance) of breeders willing to pay $125,000 (plus tax of course) to get to Forestry.
You've got your hand on the pulse (at Taylor Made)...is the market for him that strong? Will he again stand for $125k in 2008?
Best.
Respectfully
Thanks for sharing your thoughts, insights and numbers/stats.
I still find it difficult to imagine that there might be an overabundance (much less an abundance) of breeders willing to pay $125,000 (plus tax of course) to get to Forestry.
You've got your hand on the pulse (at Taylor Made)...is the market for him that strong? Will he again stand for $125k in 2008?
Best.
Respectfully
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brogers
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FOS,
Good question. Much of the answer would depend on what the rest of the market does at the top end.
Smart Strike, Mr Greeley and Street Cry are obviously going to go up in fee and put pressure on Forestry at his fee but but how high are these three going to go?
You have to remember that a lot of stallions at the top end are ageing and serving smaller books in 08. Storm Cat will serve a smaller book, Kingmambo even smaller. They have already advised that Seeking the Gold is serving a much smaller book of mares in 08, as will Gone West and Dynaformer never serves more than 110 and usually starts with 75.
I have no idea what they are going to do with Elusive Quality this year. Then you have also got to ask what is going to happen with fees for the unproven (or semi proven) Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Mineshaft and Empire Maker (who might get a temporary stay in proceedings after today). Bernardini got a lot of the mares that Forestry got the year before but a second season unproven sire just doesn't get as good a book no matter who you are (they did drop Ghotszapper remember). Coolmore do sap up a lot of mares at the top end with Giant's Causeway and Fu Peg but it will be interesting to see what the market does with these two this year.
So in answer to your question, it will depend what everyone else does. If Smart Strike, Mr Greeley and Street Cry stand for $100,000 then Forestry looks overpriced, but if these all stand for $150,000+ then maybe not as the competition in the price range will serve limited books or be in difficult years to breed to.
Let's wait and see.
Good question. Much of the answer would depend on what the rest of the market does at the top end.
Smart Strike, Mr Greeley and Street Cry are obviously going to go up in fee and put pressure on Forestry at his fee but but how high are these three going to go?
You have to remember that a lot of stallions at the top end are ageing and serving smaller books in 08. Storm Cat will serve a smaller book, Kingmambo even smaller. They have already advised that Seeking the Gold is serving a much smaller book of mares in 08, as will Gone West and Dynaformer never serves more than 110 and usually starts with 75.
I have no idea what they are going to do with Elusive Quality this year. Then you have also got to ask what is going to happen with fees for the unproven (or semi proven) Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Mineshaft and Empire Maker (who might get a temporary stay in proceedings after today). Bernardini got a lot of the mares that Forestry got the year before but a second season unproven sire just doesn't get as good a book no matter who you are (they did drop Ghotszapper remember). Coolmore do sap up a lot of mares at the top end with Giant's Causeway and Fu Peg but it will be interesting to see what the market does with these two this year.
So in answer to your question, it will depend what everyone else does. If Smart Strike, Mr Greeley and Street Cry stand for $100,000 then Forestry looks overpriced, but if these all stand for $150,000+ then maybe not as the competition in the price range will serve limited books or be in difficult years to breed to.
Let's wait and see.
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Rokeby Forever
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All things being equal, I'm not sure why Forestry would command a $125,000 fee in 2008.
In 2007, Forestry is currently #82 on the Juvenile sire list - with no repeat winners nor stakes winners. Only 10% of foals in this crop have won a race. Of course, these numbers could zoom at any given moment, but as of writing this post, that's what they are.
On the General Sire list, Forestry is performing better at #49 (as of now). Of sires with five crops, Malibu Moon and Victory Gallop place higher on this list.
Forestry's 2007 sales numbers are as follows: For yearlings in 2007, Forestry offspring averaged $173,000 and a median of $150,000. Of the "Home run," four foals hit the +/$500,000 mark (two at $500,000, one at $525,000, and a topper at $600,000).
Elusive Quality's 2007 sales numbers are as follows: For yearlings in 2007, EQ offspring averaged $231,000 and a median of $205,000. Of the "Home run," two foals hit the +/$500,000 mark (one for $500,000 and a topper at $750,000).
My question: Based on these numbers, what does it really matter what other stallions price themselves at? With all due respect to our friend Mr Brogers and to Forestry (a stallion that can certainly sire a good horse), I see no justification for Forestry to stay at $125,000.
In 2007, Forestry is currently #82 on the Juvenile sire list - with no repeat winners nor stakes winners. Only 10% of foals in this crop have won a race. Of course, these numbers could zoom at any given moment, but as of writing this post, that's what they are.
On the General Sire list, Forestry is performing better at #49 (as of now). Of sires with five crops, Malibu Moon and Victory Gallop place higher on this list.
Forestry's 2007 sales numbers are as follows: For yearlings in 2007, Forestry offspring averaged $173,000 and a median of $150,000. Of the "Home run," four foals hit the +/$500,000 mark (two at $500,000, one at $525,000, and a topper at $600,000).
Elusive Quality's 2007 sales numbers are as follows: For yearlings in 2007, EQ offspring averaged $231,000 and a median of $205,000. Of the "Home run," two foals hit the +/$500,000 mark (one for $500,000 and a topper at $750,000).
My question: Based on these numbers, what does it really matter what other stallions price themselves at? With all due respect to our friend Mr Brogers and to Forestry (a stallion that can certainly sire a good horse), I see no justification for Forestry to stay at $125,000.
Stud Fee
Roke:
The only justification for any stud fee of any amount is 100 hardy souls willing and able to write a check for that amount. As long as the public (or at least 100 of them) perceive the risk/reward to be valid why would any farm lower any fee? Your points are succinct and correct. My guess is deals will be coming and the real (not published fees) will be softer in 2008.
Elusive Quality may come down as well. In 2006 his median was $133,000.00, in 2007 his median is $163,000.00. Last year his median foals lost money based on a mare value of $250,000.00 and upkeep of $30,000.00 to cover both mare and foal. He's better this year but not great.
The only justification for any stud fee of any amount is 100 hardy souls willing and able to write a check for that amount. As long as the public (or at least 100 of them) perceive the risk/reward to be valid why would any farm lower any fee? Your points are succinct and correct. My guess is deals will be coming and the real (not published fees) will be softer in 2008.
Elusive Quality may come down as well. In 2006 his median was $133,000.00, in 2007 his median is $163,000.00. Last year his median foals lost money based on a mare value of $250,000.00 and upkeep of $30,000.00 to cover both mare and foal. He's better this year but not great.
Re: Stud Fee
hpkingjr wrote:
Elusive Quality may come down as well. In 2006 his median was $133,000.00, in 2007 his median is $163,000.00. Last year his median foals lost money based on a mare value of $250,000.00 and upkeep of $30,000.00 to cover both mare and foal. He's better this year but not great.
I think I read last week that Elusive Quality is still in Australia and if he is determined to have contracted EI, he'll miss a big chunk of the US breeding season.
Now that would be a spanner in the works.