well, we saw this coming . . .Smart Strike

[Toccet02]

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/breeding-news/2007/October/15/Smart-Strike-joins-six-figure-stud-fee-club.aspx

[Tappiano]

SMART STRIKE , 1992
Mr. Prospector--Classy 'n Smart, by Smarten
2008 Stud Fee: $150,000 Live Foal


That's a BIG Jump!

[Maven]

Both Pleasant Tap and Lemon Drop Kid took a big (and expected) jump.

I really dont know how you can NOT like Gulch at 20k.

[Rokeby Forever]

I think it's pretty interesting that Farish didn't jump AP Indy. His yearling average jumped from $513,000 in 2006 to $853,000 in 2007, and he's siring high profile critters like no other sire out there. Plus, with the Storm Cat bubble now burst at the sales, AP's should continue to sell higher and higher.

I would have understood an AP Indy jump...I wonder what Farish's thinking is behind leaving his fee where it is. Any ideas?

[Maven]

I'm not sure we'll see another 500k stallion any time soon. I think they'll come close, but not quite that high.

Storm Cat had international appeal that Indy does not. He's priced to be the go-to top tier stallion at 300k. Any higher, and many will run to Distorted Humor who is more in the mold of Storm Cat with the aptitude of his foals.

[Rokeby Forever]

If you look at the AP toppers this year, Ferguson bought the most expensive one and another for $1+ Million, and O'Byrne bought three for $1+ Million. I think there's a good chance that these foals will race in the US, but the international interest is definitely there - Coolmore couldn't wait to get 50% of Majestic Warrior. The Japanese haven't yet chimed in, but if they want to race here (ala Fu Peg), I think APs will zoom once they join the fray. Interesting that AP Indy was owned by Japanese interests but the Japanese wallets haven't opened up for him yet. Maybe Mr Sekiguchi is still smarting from Mr Sekiguchi. LOL!

Plus, the AP Indy over Storm Cat nick is now as popular as it gets. With the market so saturated with Storm Cat both here and internationally, I'd think more and more folks would look especially for AP Indy sons.

[Maven]

Darley is making a concerted effort to have an American stable of supreme quality. So, they've been buying more American pedigrees the last year or two than they ever have been.

But most of the European buyers are not going to blindly go for Indy's, because he does not excel at throwing turf horses.

You're also confusing Tabor and Smith with Coolmore... they often partner up with Magnier but their influence in what Coolmore stands is minimal. Bandini is a recent example of a G1 winning horse who John did not want at Coolmore that was owned by Tabor and Smith.

As far as the Indy-Storm Cat "nick"... It's purely commercial, not really built on substance. Out of over 50 foals from the cross of racing age, the best has been Jump Start, who I *think* may be the only one to win graded blacktype.

So, I see what you're saying with Indy over Storm Cat... but it's more of an over-utilized cross rather than a nick of any significance, at least at this point.

[Tesio]

I agree with your assessmant of AP Indy as the new "go-to" stallion for his progeny are far outperforming the Storm Cats.

I would put Distorted Humor and Smart Strike a notch below him in the top of the market category. The performance of these two stallion's offspring is pretty remarkable.

Question: How is Gone West considered in this regard. I know his age is creeping up, I think he's about the same age as Storm Cat. Does it make sense to breed to him for a commercial play at his stud fee of $125K (or possibly cheaper if a deal is available)?

He is a son of Mr P who is definitely a proven sire of sires, even more so than Storm Cat. What is your feeling on this?

[Maven]

I'm not sure I would consider Gone West a more proven sire of sires than Storm Cat. He was certainly on a hot-streak with his sons a few year's back, but that has certainly cooled off a lot. But he certainly is one of the more reliable ones. Funny enough, I do like his sons better than his daughters.

I think Gone West is a decent value at 125k, although I do think with his age, the market has pushed him toward a breed to race proposition but they still sell well... just not like they use to.

With that said, I actually like Gulch better for the price. Although his sons don't quite get the same respect at stud, he gets a very similar horse to Gone West at a fraction of the price. BUT Gone West delivers the big horse more readily, although he hasn't in quite some time.

[billl]

Gulch is definitely a good deal at $20,000 for anybody owning a mare of decent pedigree, in particular from the Northern Dancer line. He was a great horse and has prove himself to be a good sire of very useful horses.

When I see these deals is when I can't figure out a reason to go with an unproven sire with the recent market trend.

[Tesio]

I would agree with your point on Gulch, Maven; especially if breeding to race. He is a quality stallion at a very reasonable price.

As far as Gone West vs Storm Cat as a sire of sires. You may very well be right. I just feel the market is oversaturated with Storm Cat's sons which are, in many instances, overpriced and over-hyped (ie Giant's Causeway and Forestry).

Whereas, Gone West seems to have a little more quality over quantity in this regard.

[Maven]

I def hear you loud and clear but when I think Gone West I immediately think of Came Home (25k), Elusive Quality (100k), and Mr. Greeley (75k). All are extremely over-priced, although I do like EQ and to a lesser degree, Mr. Greeley.

As for the Gone West sons, I'm not sure any excite me as much as Proud Citizen. I would love to see him succeed, even at his current farm location.

I was starting to come around to After Market but I'm not sure he's priced effectively enough to counter a horse like Political Force at 15k in my book.

[Rokeby Forever]

I think Gone West is a decent value at 125k, although I do think with his age, the market has pushed him toward a breed to race proposition but they still sell well... just not like they use to.

I really didn't think Claiborne would keep Seeking The Gold at $125,000.

Gone West still has the potential to sire the "big sire." Mr Greeleys still sell VERY well (don't ask me why), Elusive Quality is still at $100,000, and some new promising sons like Speightstown and Proud Citizen have a lot of market interest. I don't know what Farish plans to do with Came Home, but overall, I think Gone West is still recognized as a sire that can get a good son to stud - which helps to keep his fee at $125,000.

Maven - as far as the the AP over Storm Cat nick, let's remember that AP still has crops ahead of him and he's going to get the best families in the world through the later Storm Cat daughters. I think Flying Colors (AP/Storm Flag Flying) is a good example of where this nick is headed. If AP Indy does get international recognition from others than Coolmore partners and the Sheikh, it'll come through families that the foreign interests want to get their hands on.

[Maven]

I agree that Gone West has a "sire of sires" factor... but my point was, only 3 of his sons hit with any type of consistency (at this point), Mr. Greeley, Elusive Quality, and Grand Slam, with two being grossly over-priced, but still good.

Like I said, I like his sons better than his daughters.

As far as Indy over Storm Cat... call it what you want but dont call it a "nick". By definition, a "nick" is a crossing of two individuals or sirelines that work... at this point, that's creating something that isn't reality with Indy over Storm Cat.

At this point, Storm Cat over Indy has been a lot more effective with just a fraction of the number of crosses... its produced a G1 winner and a G3 winner from 10 of racing age. And we've also seen nicks not work in reverse.

It's certainly too early to call it a failure, but at this point, its not looking great for the Indy over Storm Cat foals.

[Rokeby Forever]

I'm not crazy about Storm Cat as a broodie sire (recall a thread I started about it, as per a dare from KAL), but those families are too strong not to work. AP/Storm Cat, I agree, is just the carrot - it's those families through Storm Cat that should put AP into the Stratosphere.